Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives

Existential Risk, Human Survival,
and the Future of Life in the Universe:
Interstellar Civilization through Vessel Archives

Heath Rezabek, MLIS
heath.rezabek@gmail.com

100 Year Starship Symposium
September 13-‐16, 2012. Houston, Texas.

ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission

Heath Rezabek is the Teen Services Coordinator at the Austin Public Library, where he works
with his staﬀ to empower at-‐risk youth through media literacy. A librarian by career and
calling, his session suggests a key role for archives in the 100 Year Starship Mission.
However, Heath is here today as an individual and enthusiast: A writer, artist, and advocate
for the 100YSS Mission. His other interests include community building, sustainable
architecture, the mission of art, cosmology, the importance of the humanities, and the
prospects for life in the universe. He unites these themes in his session: Existential Risk,
Human Survival, and the Future of Life in the Universe: Interstellar Civilization through
Vessel Archives.

( … Thank you. … )

Session slides available.

slideshare.net/heathrezabek

biota.cc/vessel-slides.pdf


Thank you.

Some quick notes before we begin.

Session slides available both on Slideshare and as a
PDF from my own server.

( … These break-‐out slides will mention Brief
highlights. … )

Exploring further...
Brief highlights
Only a few key ideas could be covered in this 20
minute session. To save time, topics in
breakout slides will not be explored in depth.

Refer to paper for details
The working Paper is 50 pages, and covers all
key elements of this proposal. References are
also cited there.

Contact
Inquiries and collaboration welcomed.

biota.cc/vessel.pdf
ORIGINS (Detail)
© Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission

These break-‐out slides will mention Brief highlights.

Working Paper is longer -‐ 50 pages -‐ with more background
than I can cover in 20 minutes. A link to the PDF is at
bottom of these slides.

I welcome contact, inquiries, and collaboration via email.

( … As early as the January 2011 100 Year Starship Workshop,
the mission had identiﬁed human survival as a key factor in
its work. … )

EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003

As early as the January 2011 100 Year Starship Workshop, the mission had
identified human survival as a key factor in its work.

The workshop recommended exploration of "ideas related to creating a legacy
for the human species, backing up the Earth’s biosphere, and enabling long-‐
term survival in the face of catastrophic disasters on Earth."

I hope to contribute a means for addressing all three of these goals in one
effort.

So let’s begin with two key questions. The first of which is:

( … Are we alone? … )

The Fermi Paradox and The Great Silence

Are we alone?


Are we alone?

… Is life -‐-‐ living matter, whether simple or
complex -‐-‐ common, or is it rare, in the observable
universe?

( … The Kepler Mission and others tell us that
there is no shortage of rocky worlds to be detected
… )


Kepler and 0ther observations tell us that
there is no shortage of worlds to be
detected.

Billions of years for worlds to develop.
Radiant life or von Neumann probes would need < 1 million years.
Where are they?

This is the Fermi Paradox.
The quiet in place of any other signs of life: the Great Silence.


The Kepler Mission and others tell us that there is no shortage of
rocky worlds to be detected.

There’ve been billions of years for worlds to develop.

Radiant life or von Neumann probes would need as little as 1
million years to colonize the Galaxy.

Where are they?

This is the Fermi Paradox.

The quiet in place of any other signs of life has been termed the
Great Silence.

Possible answers to the Fermi
Paradox

Responsibility to strive,
regardless of the unknown
status of other life

biota.cc/vessel.pdf
EXOPLANET TRANSIT
ESA / Illustration by AOES Medialab 2003

Exploring further in the paper we have some
Possible answers to the Fermi Paradox

... and we discuss our Responsibility to strive,
regardless of the unknown status of other life

( … Is life widespread, or as uncommon as we seem
to be? … )


Is life widespread, or as uncommon
as we seem to be?

Learning the truth through interstellar travel will take time.

We must foster a supporting—and surviving—interstellar civilization.

EXOPLANET TRANSIT / ESA 2003 / Illustration by AOES Medialab

Is life widespread, or as uncommon as we seem to
be?

Learning the truth through interstellar travel will
take time.

In order to achieve our goal of interstellar travel,
we must foster a supporting and surviving
interstellar civilization.

( … This brings us to second key question … )

MASSIVE TERRESTRIAL STRIKE / Don Davis / NASA

This brings me to our second key question

( … Will we endure? … )

Existential Risk

Will we endure?


This brings me to our second key question

Will we endure?

( … We have given ourselves 100 years to achieve
our primary goal, yet our endeavor could be cut
short before that time has passed. The risk that we
may not endure is termed Existential Risk. … )

Existential Risk

100 years to achieve our primary goal.
Our endeavor could be cut short before that
time has passed.

The risk that we may not endure is termed Existential Risk.

An existential risk is one that threatens the premature
extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life or the permanent
and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future
development.

-‐ Nick Bostrom
Existential Risk Prevention as the Most Important Task for Humanity (2011)


We have given ourselves 100 years to achieve our primary goal, yet our endeavor could be cut short
before that time has passed. The risk that we may not endure is termed Existential Risk.

Nick Bostrom, Director of the Future of Humanity Institute, deﬁnes -‐

An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life, or
the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.

The paper quoted here is an excellent treatment, found on his site, called “Existential Risk Prevention
as the Most Important Task for Humanity.”

( … Now let’s notice that fragment -‐ “... destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”
… )

Existential Risk

“... the permanent and drastic destruction of its
potential for desirable future development.”

Survival alone is not enough.

In some cases, a surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant, or
diminished irreparably. Bostrom’s 2011 classiﬁcation sets aside
discussion of particular causes.

Strict focus on outcomes helps us envision possible recovery scenarios.


Now let’s notice that fragment -‐ “... destruction of its
potential for desirable future development.”

Survival alone is not enough. In some cases, a
surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant, or
diminished irreparably.

Bostrom’s 2011 classiﬁcation sets aside discussion of
particular causes.

( … Its strict focus on outcomes helps us envision
possible recovery scenarios. … )

Existential Risk

Classification of Existential Risk
Human Extinction
Humanity goes extinct prematurely, i.e., before reaching technological maturity.

Permanent Stagnation
Humanity survives but never reaches technological maturity.
Subclasses: Unrecovered Collapse, Plateauing, Recurrent Collapse

Flawed Realization
Humanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is dismally and irremediably flawed.
Subclasses: Unconsummated Realization, Ephemeral Realization

Subsequent Ruination
Humanity reaches technological maturity in a way that gives good future prospects, yet
subsequent developments cause the permanent ruination of those prospects.

-‐ Nick Bostrom


Its strict focus on outcomes helps us envision possible recovery scenarios.

Bostrom’s classification is notable for not being a laundry-‐list of extinction events. It points out two key outcomes in
particular. I call these Dystopian Outcomes, as they’re unfavorable outcomes which continue indefinitely:

Permanent Stagnation -‐ Humanity survives but never reaches technological maturity or interstellar civilization.

Flawed Realization -‐ Humanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is irredeemably flawed.

[ -‐-‐ I joke that, in the realm of Existential Risk, Dystopian outcomes are ones that only an existentialist could love. -‐-‐ ]

But What of the other two classes?

( … Human Extinction is exactly as it sounds, no different whether the cause is a sterilizing asteroid, a pandemic, or an
unforeseen technology. … )

Existential Risk

Human Extinction


Flawed Realization


-‐ Nick Bostrom


Human Extinction is exactly as it sounds, no
diﬀerent whether the cause is a sterilizing asteroid,
a pandemic, or an unforeseen technology.

( … Subsequent Ruination is a Far-‐future catch-‐all.
Extinction at some point after we become
interstellar is the least of our worries over the next
100 years. … )

Existential Risk

Human Extinction


Flawed Realization


-‐ Nick Bostrom


Subsequent Ruination is a Far-‐future catch-‐all.
Extinction at some point after we become
interstellar is the least of our worries over the next
100 years.

( … That leaves us the challenges of today: the risk
of a deeply diminished legacy, to pass on to the
stars. … )

Existential Risk

Human Extinction


Flawed Realization


-‐ Nick Bostrom


That leaves us the challenges of today: the risk of a
deeply diminished legacy, to pass on to the stars.

Avoiding this outcome is the focus of my proposal.

( … So, Reminded of the need to foster our cultural
capabilities beyond mere survival, let’s restate the
January 2011 Workshop goal as an imperative: … )

Existential Risk

Imperative

To achieve an interstellar civilization while
addressing existential risk, we must do more than
survive: we must preserve our aspirations, our
capabilities, our cultural resources, and our
biodiversity.


So, Reminded of the need to foster our cultural capabilities beyond
mere survival, let’s restate the January 2011 Workshop goal as an
imperative:

To achieve an interstellar civilization while addressing existential risk,
we must do more than survive: we must preserve our aspirations, our
capabilities, our cultural resources, and our biodiversity.

( … What type of archive would answer to our Dystopian Outcomes -‐-‐
Permanent Stagnation or Flawed Realization? … )

What type of archive would answer to
Permanent Stagnation or Flawed
Realization?
Gregory Benford suggested one example in 1992, addressing
catastrophic loss of biodiversity.

DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)
Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004

What type of archive would answer to our
Dystopian Outcomes -‐-‐ Permanent Stagnation or
Flawed Realization?

Gregory Benford suggested one example in 1992,
addressing catastrophic loss of biodiversity.

( … The Library of Life proposal is a thought
experiment on avoiding irreversible. … )

The Library of Life


The Library of Life proposal is a thought
experiment on avoiding irreversible loss.

( … In it, he details... )

The Library of Life

The Library of Life: A thought experiment
on avoiding irreversible loss of biodiversity.
A broad program of freezing species in threatened ecospheres could
preserve biodiversity for eventual use by future generations. Sampling
without studying can lower costs dramatically. […] Much more
information than species DNA will be saved, allowing future
biotechnology to derive high information content and perhaps even
resurrect then-‐extinct species.

-‐ Gregory Benford
Abstract for “Saving the Library of Life” (1992)


In it, he details...

A broad program of freezing species in threatened ecospheres [that] could
preserve biodiversity for eventual recovery by future generations. [Believing
even then that we had no more time for the slow luxury of taxonomy, he
recommended freezing ﬂora and fauna in situ, their complex relationships as
predator and prey intact. “Much more information than species DNA will be
saved,” he wrote, “allowing future biotechnology to derive high information
content -‐-‐ and perhaps even resurrect then-‐extinct species.”

( … The proposal was controversial, but galvanizing. Carl
Sagan wrote in a letter to Benford … )

The Library of Life

Controversial, but galvanizing.
My main concern is that people will conclude that scientists have
given up on preserving living biodiversity, or that future species
extinctions are not so worrisome because we can always reconstitute
the species and genera that we render extinct. But […] these potential
obstacles can be circumvented: by stressing [...] that the very fact that
such steps are being taken is an indication of how serious the problem
is.

-‐ Carl Sagan
Letter to Benford in Deep Time (1999)

The Library of Life proposal was one of the deepest and earliest
influences on my Vessel Archives proposal. It taught: We cannot be
afraid to galvanize our efforts, when confronting existential risk.


The proposal was controversial, but galvanizing. Carl Sagan wrote in a letter to Benford

My main concern is that people will conclude that scientists have given up on preserving living biodiversity, or that
future species extinctions are not so worrisome because we can always reconstitute the species […] that we render
extinct. But […] these potential obstacles can be circumvented: by stressing [...] that the very fact that such steps are
being taken is an indication of how serious the problem is.

When I first encountered the The Library of Life proposal, I was stunned by a glimpse of
very-‐long-‐term thinking. It eventually contributed to my becoming a Librarian. So one
of the deepest and earliest ideas to shape the Vessel Archive proposal comes from the
Library of Life, and can stated by saying:

( … We cannot be afraid to galvanize our efforts, in confronting existential risk. … )

The Library of Life

What type of facility would be needed to
carry a Library of Life, or house a cultural
equivalent, over the very-‐long-‐term?
Cultural archives would require different methods, and the facility
itself could take on as many different forms as there are cultures...


We cannot be afraid to galvanize our efforts, in confronting
existential risk.

So, can we envision the type of facility would be needed to carry
a Library of Life, or house a cultural equivalent, over the very-‐
long-‐term?

Cultural archives would require different methods, and the
facility itself could take on as many different forms as there are
cultures.

( … Here I propose the Vessel Archive, a recombinant idea,
drawing many efforts into one. … )

Vessel Archives

Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008
LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008

Here I propose the Vessel Archive, a recombinant idea, drawing
many eﬀorts into one.

In illustrating the Vessel Archive proposal, I am especially thankful
to Philippe Steels, who granted permission to use his design
visualizations for Lilypad, an oceanfaring hyperstructure by
architect Vincent Callebaut.

( … These structures also share much in common with the original
Arcology concepts of Paolo Soleri. … )

Vessel Archives


These structures also share much in common with the original
Arcology concepts of Paolo Soleri.

Most hyperstructure projects, including Paolo Soleri’s Arcology
proposals, are designed for large numbers of inhabitants (from
10,000 to millions). I propose applying these strategies on a more
practical scale, in a limited-‐scope project.

So what is a Vessel Archive?

( … A Vessel Archive is a self-‐contained, sustainable habitat which
fosters the traces of Earth's cultures and biomes. … )

Vessel Archives

A Vessel Archive is a self-‐contained, sustainable habitat,
which harbors the traces of Earth's cultures and biomes.

These installations would serve in the near-‐term as examples
of sustainability and as ambassadors for society's
understanding of the 100 Year Starship Mission, and would
serve in the long-‐term as protective vessels for humanity's
aspirations, knowledge, and the traces of life itself.

Vessel Archives would be dedicated to their twin goals of
education, and preservation.


A Vessel Archive is a self-‐contained, sustainable habitat which
harbors the traces of Earth's cultures and biomes.

These installations would serve in the near-‐term as examples of
sustainability and as ambassadors for society's understanding of the
100 Year Starship Mission, and would serve in the long-‐term as
protective vessels for humanity's aspirations, knowledge, and the
traces of life itself.

( … Vessel Archives would be dedicated to their twin goals of
education, and preservation. … )

Vessel Archives


Vessel Archives would be dedicated to their twin
goals of education, and preservation.

( … The term "vessel" describes our focused-‐
purpose habitat in part through its several
meanings. … )

Vessel Archives

Vessel (noun.)
The term vessel describes our focused-‐purpose arcology in
part through its several meanings.

A vessel is a ship; a vehicle meant to ply the waters (on Earth),
or the space between the stars.

A vessel is a container into which is poured something meant
to be stored or carried.

A vessel is a conduit or a medium for transmission.


The term "vessel" describes our focused-‐purpose
habitat in part through its several meanings.

A vessel is a ship; a vehicle meant to ply the waters
(on Earth), or the space between the stars.

( … A vessel is a container into which is poured
something meant to be stored or carried. … )

Vessel Archives


A vessel is a container into which is poured
something meant to be stored or carried.

A vessel is a conduit or a medium for transmission.

( … The installation as a whole should be designed
as self-‐suﬃcient, sustainable, and resilient in case
of existential catastrophe. … )

Vessel Archives

The installation as a whole should be designed as self-‐
sufficient, sustainable, and resilient in case of existential
catastrophe.

Each Vessel Archive should be designed to harbor a diverse
and interdisciplinary crew and staff of just a few thousand, per
archive.

They would be colonies on Earth, dedicated to the legacy of
life.


The installation as a whole should be designed as
self-‐sufficient, sustainable, and resilient in case of
existential catastrophe.

Each Vessel Archive should be designed to harbor a
diverse and interdisciplinary crew and staff of just a
few thousand, per archive.

( … They would be colonies on Earth, dedicated to
the legacy of life. … )

Vessel Archives


They would be colonies on Earth, dedicated to the
legacy of life.

( … One habitat for a few thousand will not solve
our societal challenges or safeguard life on Earth.
… )

Vessel Archives

One habitat for a few thousand will not solve our societal
challenges or safeguard life on Earth. Connected communities
of hundreds or thousands of Vessel Archives around the
world, each sharing concrete methods for sustainable design
with society at large, may do better...


One habitat for a few thousand will not solve our
societal challenges or safeguard life on Earth.

( … But connected communities of many Vessel
Archives around the world, each sharing concrete
methods for sustainable design with society at
large, may do better... ... )

Vessel Archives


But connected communities of many Vessel
Archives around the world, each sharing concrete
methods for sustainable design with society at
large, may do better...

( … A Vessel Archive’s outer exhibits, clearly visible
to a curious public, would house resources and
environments introducing the 100 Year Starship
Mission. … )

Vessel Archives

A Vessel Archive’s outer exhibits, clearly visible to a curious
public, would house resources and environments introducing
the 100 Year Starship Mission.

At the heart of a Vessel Archive would be labs for research and
development, core collections, and sample banks of the
cultural and biological records.

This core archive (like a Library of Life) could be replicated,
and transferred in whole or in part to a 100 Year Starship, to
serve as its memory of Earth.


A Vessel Archive’s outer exhibits, clearly visible to a curious public, would
house resources and environments introducing the 100 Year Starship Mission.

At the heart of a Vessel Archive would be labs for research and development,
core collections, and our sample banks of cultural and biological records.

( … This core archive (like a Library of Life) could be split or sampled, and
transferred in whole or in part to a 100 Year Starship, to serve as its memory
of Earth. … )

Vessel Archives


This core archive (like a Library of Life) could be split or
sampled, and transferred in whole or in part to a 100 Year
Starship, to serve as its memory of Earth.

But Vessel Archives themselves would remain after all other
ships had launched, to ensure that humanity’s essence endured.

( … The Vessel Archive, carried out in many forms, would
address the debilitating outcomes of existential risk: … )

Vessel Archives

The Vessel Archive, carried out in many forms, would address
the debilitating outcomes of existential risk:

Permanent Stagnation; (Unrecovered Collapse;
Plateauing; Recurrent Collapse)

Flawed Realization; (Unconsummated Realization;
Ephemeral Realization)

Vessel Archives would also address the other two outcome
classes.


The Vessel Archive, carried out in many forms, would address the
Dystopian Outcomes of existential risk:

Permanent Stagnation and Flawed Realization.

Vessel Archives would also address the other two outcome classes,
through Bruce Sterling’s concept of Deep Archival. This is detailed in the
paper.

( … While the Lilypad habitat is an oceanfaring vessel, the example is for
illustration only: A Vessel Archive does not need to be ﬂoating, or have
any other single form. … )

Vessel Archives


While the Lilypad habitat is an oceanfaring vessel,
the example is for illustration only: A Vessel
Archive does not need to be ﬂoating, or have any
other single form.

( … Many other approaches inform the Vessel
Archive proposal, starting with the need to
encourage hybrid vigor through an open
speciﬁcation … )

Many other approaches inform the Vessel
Archive proposal, starting with the need
to encourage hybrid vigor through an
open specification...

biota.cc/vessel.pdf

STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission

Many other approaches inform the Vessel
Archive proposal, starting with the need to
encourage hybrid vigor through an open
specification...

( … I propose the use of Creative Commons to
seed an open specification on Vessel Archive
designs. … )

Creative Commons
Seed several instances of open specification and
resource sites to explore, detail, and document
the creation of Vessel Archives, encouraging
hybrid vigor.

biota.cc/vessel.pdf

I propose the use of Creative Commons to seed an open specification on Vessel
Archive designs. A separate, licensed branch could allow for proprietary
developments in parallel to public efforts. If you’re interested in helping either
effort, or hosting such a site at your organization, please make contact.

( … Given the time, I’d explore how we could inspire the public with the 100 Year
Starship Mission, through interactive exhibits at existing, familiar institutions:
Museums, Planetariums, Arboretums, Observatories, Universities, Libraries... … )

The 100 Year Starship: Inviting Humanity

Given the time, I’d explore how we could
inspire the public with the 100 Year
Starship Mission, through interactive
exhibits at existing, familiar institutions:
Museums, Planetariums, Arboretums,
Observatories, Universities, Libraries...

DAEDALUS ARRIVES / © Adrian Mann 2012 / Used by Permission

Given the time, I’d explore how we could inspire
the public with the 100 Year Starship Mission,
through interactive exhibits at existing, familiar
institutions: Museums, Planetariums,
Arboretums, Observatories, Universities,
Libraries...

( … I’d discuss the many forms and formats we
could use to convey the story of the 100 Year
Starship Mission. … )

Many Forms and Formats
possible for conveying the
100YSS Mission Story

Scenario-‐Gaming, Simulations,
and Role-‐Play

biota.cc/vessel.pdf
DAEDALUS SEPARATED
© Adrian Mann 2012 / Used by Permission

I’d discuss the many forms and formats we could
use to convey the story of the 100 Year Starship
Mission.

I’d present immersive gaming as one way to
engage people ...

( … in envisioning an interstellar civilization, and
redetermining our role in the universe. … )

Becoming an Interstellar
Civilization

Redeﬁning our Cosmology

biota.cc/vessel.pdf
STAR MAP
© Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission

… in envisioning an interstellar civilization, and
redetermining our role in the universe.

( … I’d detail architectural approaches we could
use to build Vessel Archives as dedicated,
multipurpose facilities. … )

Biophilia and Biophilic Design: A Pattern Language

I’d detail architectural approaches we
could use to build Vessel Archives as
dedicated, multipurpose facilities.

EDEN PROJECT: TROPICAL BIOME / Photo via Steve Keiretsu (CC-BY-1.0) 2001

I’d detail architectural approaches we could use to
build Vessel Archives as dedicated, multipurpose
facilities.

( … I’d propose possible applications of new dense
archival methods, like the digital DNA sequencing
recently developed by Church/Gao/Kosuri. … )

Binary DNA Data Sequencing
Recent work (Church/Gao/Kosuri 2012) is
discussed, along with possible applications.

biota.cc/vessel.pdf
Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets
of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004

I’d propose possible applications of new dense
archival methods, like the digital DNA sequencing
recently developed by Church/Gao/Kosuri.

( … I’d discuss the inﬂuence of architect Paolo
Soleri’s architectural ecologies -‐-‐ or Arcologies -‐-‐
on the concept of Vessel Archives. … )

In the Paper...
Arcology (Paolo Soleri, 1969)
Compact and integrated installations as self-‐
contained cities.

biota.cc/vessel.pdf
From ARCOLOGY: The City in the Image of Man
© Paolo Soleri 1969 / Used by Permission

I’d discuss the inﬂuence of architect Paolo Soleri’s
architectural ecologies -‐-‐ or Arcologies -‐-‐ on the
concept of Vessel Archives.

( … And the possibilities of Biophilic Design and
Pattern Languages for very-‐long-‐term habitats on
Earth and in space. … )

The Biophilia Hypothesis and
Biophilic Design

Pattern Languages (Christopher
Alexander)

biota.cc/vessel.pdf
THORNCROWN CHAPEL (E. Fay Jones)
Photo via Bobak (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2006

And the possibilities of Biophilic Design and
Pattern Languages for very-‐long-‐term habitats on
Earth and in space.

( … I’d cover the implications for Icarus
Interstellar’s Project Hyperion and Project
Persephone, both devoted to interstellar habitats.
… )

100YSS: Icarus Interstellar
Project Hyperion
Research on very-‐long-‐term habitat design
factors.

100YSS: Icarus Interstellar
Project Persephone
Research on evolving architecture for very-‐long-‐
term and extrasolar habitat design.

(Biophilic Design, Pattern Languages,
Arcology / habitats: All applicable.)

LILYPAD / biota.cc/vessel.pdf
Visualization © Philippe Steels 2008
Visualization Used by Permission

I’d connect these approaches to Icarus
Interstellar’s Project Hyperion and Project
Persephone, both devoted to interstellar habitats.

( … And introduce solutions preserved in
vernacular architecture, as a form of embedded
cultural archival. … )

Preservation of Cultural
Architecture and Vernacular
Pattern Languages
Case study: Traditional Japanese architectural
solutions and patterns.
Photo via Alijava (CC-BY-SA-2.5) 2010

biota.cc/vessel.pdf
BAMBOO

And introduce solutions preserved in vernacular
architecture, as a form of embedded cultural
archival.

( … I’d look at precursors to very-‐long-‐term
thinking, such as the 10,000 Year Clock of the Long
Now Foundation, or Bruce Sterling’s entreaty
towards Deep Archival. … )

The Long Now Foundation
10,000 Year Clock to encourage very-‐long-‐term
thinking.

Deep Archival
Bruce Sterling on very-‐long-‐term archival.

biota.cc/vessel.pdf
CLOCK OF THE LONG NOW (Long Now Foundation)

I’d look at precursors to very-‐long-‐term thinking,
such as the 10,000 Year Clock of the Long Now
Foundation, or Bruce Sterling’s entreaty towards
Deep Archival.

( … And I’d pose the ultimate design challenge, of
launching an interstellar starship from a Vessel
Archive installation, with a core Vessel Archive as
its memory of Earth. … )

Mission launch capability as
deep design goal

Core Vessel Archives as cargo on
100YSS ships

biota.cc/vessel.pdf

And I’d pose the ultimate design challenge, of
launching an interstellar starship from a Vessel
Archive installation, with a core Vessel Archive in
its cargo.

( … All of these things are explored in the working
paper for this session. … )

biota.cc/vessel.pdf


All of these things are explored in the working
paper for this session.

( … But none of these things matter, in the absence
of a 100 year answer -‐-‐ to this: … )

But none of these things matter,
in the absence of a 100 year answer

to this:


But none of these things matter, in the absence of
a 100 year answer -‐-‐ to this:

PALE BLUE DOT / NASA / JPL 1990

We recognize this as the Pale Blue Dot -‐-‐ our
fragile self-‐portrait, Earth as captured by Voyager
I, looking back towards home, in 1990.

( … After 20 years of searching and synthesis, the
Vessel Archive proposal, is the very best I have to
give, in answer. But I hope that, together, we can
do still better, because the Great Silence awaits our
response. … )


After 20 years of searching and synthesis, the
Vessel Archive proposal, is the very best I have to
give, in answer. But I hope that, together, we can
do still better, because the Great Silence awaits our
response.

( … )

James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010

( … We began with the Great Silence, and so we
will end, by considering the Great Filter. … )

The Great Filter


( … We began with the Great Silence, and so we
will end, by considering the Great Filter. … )

The Great Filter

We began with the Great Silence, and end by
considering the Great Filter.
The Great Silence implies that one or more of these steps [from
organic stellar material to expansive interstellar life and colonization]
are very improbable; there is a “Great Filter” along the path between
simple dead stuff and explosive life. The vast majority of stuff that
starts along this path never makes it. [...] The fact that our universe
seems basically dead suggests that it is very hard for advanced
explosive lasting life to arise.

-‐ Robin Hanson
The Great Filter -‐ Are We Almost Past It? (1998)


We began with the Great Silence, and so we will end, by considering the Great Filter.

The Great Filter is a kind of probability barrier.

As Robin Hanson describes, this idea follows from the Great Silence and implies that
some step or series of steps -‐-‐ from the dawn of organic material to the spread of
expansive life -‐-‐ is highly unlikely -‐-‐ If it weren’t, traces of life beyond Earth should be
commonplace.

( … If the Great Filter is an apt analogy, we do not know whether it is in our past, in our
future, or whether we are still being tested -‐-‐ strained and filtered -‐-‐ by it. It may be
that the Great Filter is a technological step, or series of them. … )

The Great Filter


If the Great Filter is an apt analogy, we do not know whether it is in our past,
in our future, or whether we are still being tested -‐-‐ strained and filtered -‐-‐ by
it. It may be that the Great Filter is a technological step, or series of them.

Perhaps it is the passage from control of fire to interstellar flight. We should
hope that it lies far further back than that, in the transition to simpler life
forms.

( … For finding even simple life beyond the Earth might imply that the Great
Filter is not so far behind us. Whatever the case, we must do our best to
endure. … )

STEM CELLS / © Douglas B. Cowan 2012 / Used by Permission

For ﬁnding even simple life beyond the Earth might imply
that the Great Filter is not so far behind us. This
argument, made by Nick Bostrom, is explored in the
paper.

Whatever the case, we must do our best to endure.

( … The stakes are high, but the possible future beneﬁts of
our work are also vast, when considering the long-‐term
potential of our interstellar civilization. … )

Countless Generations to Come


The stakes are high, but the possible future
beneﬁts of our work are also vast, when
considering the long-‐term potential of our

( … Nick Bostrom explains that, in order to
understand the loss of an existential catastrophe,
we’d have to understand the value of its absence.
… )

Countless Generations to Come

The stakes are high, but the potential future benefits of undertaking this
work are also vast, when considering the long-‐term potential of our

To calculate the loss associated with an existential catastrophe, we
must consider how much value would come to exist in its absence. It
turns out that the ultimate potential for Earth-‐originating intelligent
life is literally astronomical. […] The relevant figure is not how many
people could live on Earth but how many descendants we could have in
total. ... Even if we use the most conservative of […] estimates, […] we
find that the expected loss of an existential catastrophe is greater than
the value of 1018 human lives. This implies that the expected value of
reducing existential risk by a mere one millionth of one percentage
point is at least ten times the value of a billion human lives.

-‐ Nick Bostrom


Nick Bostrom explains that, in order to understand the loss
of an existential catastrophe, we’d have to understand the
value of its absence. He calculates the number of
descendants the human race could have. Even the most
conservative estimates show the value as greater than 10^18
human lives. He concludes “...that the expected value of
reducing existential risk by a mere one millionth of one
percentage point...” is at least ten billion human lives.”

( … And just thinking of these things, as we are here today,
must surely count for something. … )


And just thinking of these things, as we are here today, must surely
count for something.

My hope is that we will have reduced the chances of existential
catastrophe—and increased the chances of humanity fulfilling its
potential—by at least one millionth of one percent.

I have detailed one model—the Vessel Archive—among, perhaps, many.

( … I hope that this work, and others like it, unleash a flood of
collaborative efforts to piece together as many paths to interstellar
civilization as we can imagine. … )



I hope that this work will help spark others like it,
unleashing a ﬂood of collaborative eﬀorts to piece together
as many paths to interstellar civilization as we can imagine.

Thank you.

Questions?

( “The most astounding fact ... is the knowledge ... )

“The most astounding fact ... is the knowledge that the atoms that comprise life on
Earth, the atoms that make up the human body, are traceable to the crucibles that
cooked light elements into heavy elements in their core ... under extreme temperatures
and pressures. These stars ... went unstable in their later years. They collapsed and
then exploded, scattering their enriched guts across the galaxy. Guts made of carbon,
nitrogen, oxygen, and all the fundamental ingredients of life itself. These
ingredients become part of gas clouds that condense, collapse, form the next
generation of solar systems—stars with orbiting planets—and those planets
now have the ingredients for life itself. So that when I look up at the night
sky, and I know that—yes—we are part of this universe, we are in this
universe... But perhaps more important than both of those facts, is
that the universe is in us. When I reﬂect on that fact, I look up—
many people feel small, because they're small and the universe
is big; but I feel big. Because my atoms came from
those stars.”

-‐ Neil deGrasse Tyson
TIME: 10 Questions for
Neil deGrasse
Tyson.


“The most astounding fact ... is the knowledge that the atoms that comprise life on Earth, the atoms that make up
the human body, are traceable to the crucibles that cooked light elements into heavy elements in their core ... under
extreme temperatures and pressures. These stars ... went unstable in their later years. They collapsed and then
exploded, scattering their enriched guts across the galaxy. Guts made of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and all the
fundamental ingredients of life itself. These ingredients become part of gas clouds that condense, collapse, form the
next generation of solar systems—stars with orbiting planets—and those planets now have the ingredients for life
itself. So that when I look up at the night sky, and I know that—yes—we are part of this universe, we are in this
universe... But perhaps more important than both of those facts, is that the universe is in us. When I reﬂect on that
fact, I look up—many people feel small, because they're small and the universe is big; but I feel big. Because my
atoms came from those stars.”

-‐ Neil deGrasse Tyson
TIME: 10 Questions for Neil deGrasse Tyson.

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Slides+Notes (PDF) for 100YSS 2012 session on Vessel Archives