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09/12/2010




                          IMPACT OF BIOFUEL PRODUCTION
                          ON WORLD NITROGEN FERTILIZER
                          DEMAND: CURRENT SITUATION
                          AND OUTLOOK

                          Patrick Heffer, IFA



5th International Nitrogen Conference
3-7 December 2010, New Delhi, India




          Contents


           Biofuel production: current situation and outlook
           Main feedstocks used for biofuel production
           Nitrogen fertilizer use by crop
           Nitrogen use efficiency: current trend and outlook
           Anticipated evolution of fertilizer use by crop
           Nitrogen fertilizer application to biofuel feedstocks
               o Current situation
               o Outlook to 2019




                                                                            1
09/12/2010




     Biofuel Production:
Current Situation and Outlook




Outlook for World Ethanol and
Biodiesel Production (billion liters)
   74.3 Bl ethanol +    158.8 Bl ethanol +
   15.2 Bl biodiesel     41.2 Bl biodiesel
      in 2007-09             in 2019


                                          2007-09: 86% of the
                                          ethanol output used
                                          as biofuel

                                          2019: 93% of the
                                          ethanol output to be
                                          used as biofuel




                       Source: OECD-FAO




                                                                         2
09/12/2010




Outlook for World Ethanol and
Biodiesel Production (billion liters)




                                   US ethanol + Brazilian ethanol +
                                   EU ethanol + EU biodiesel =
                Source: OECD-FAO   • 82% of total output in 2007-09
                                   • 81% of total output in 2019




    Main Feedstocks Used
    for Biofuel Production




                                                                              3
09/12/2010




World Ethanol Production by
Feedstock




                              Source: OECD-FAO




World Biodiesel Production by
Feedstock




                               Source: OECD-FAO




                                                          4
09/12/2010




Share of Feedstocks Used for Biofuel
Production from Global Production

                                  Source: OECD-FAO




Share of Feedstocks Used for Biofuel
Production from Total Production

Ethanol Feedstocks   Biodiesel Feedstocks

              62%
                                  88%



              37%




                                     Source: FAPRI




                                                             5
09/12/2010




Nitrogen Fertilizer Use by Crop




 N Fertilizer Use by Crop at
 the Global Level in 2007/08




                     Source: IFA




                                           6
09/12/2010




N Fertilizer Use by Crop in Biofuel
Producing Countries in 2007/08




                              Source: IFA




  Nitrogen Use Efficiency:
 Current Trend and Outlook




                                                    7
09/12/2010




N Fertilizer Use Efficiency (PFPN)
in Maize Production in the USA




                                              Source: Snyder (2009)




N Fertilizer Use Efficiency (PFPN)
in Sugar Cane Production in Brazil




                     Source: Cunha and Prochnow (unpublished data)




                                                                              8
09/12/2010




 Evolution* of N Fertilizer Deliveries
 vs. Grain Production in France
    cereal + rapeseed production
    N fertilizer deliveries        (*) relative evolution (1990 = 100)




                                                           Source: UNIFA




    Anticipated Evolution of
Nitrogen Fertilizer Use by Crop




                                                                                   9
09/12/2010




Anticipated Evolution of N Fertilizer
Use by Crop (for ethanol feedstocks)
  Share of Total Domestic
N Fertilizer Consumption (%)   Volume (Mt N)




                                           Source: IFA




Anticipated Evolution of N Fertilizer
Use by Crop (for biodiesel feedstocks)
  Share of Total Domestic
N Fertilizer Consumption (%)   Volume (Mt N)




                                           Source: IFA




                                                                10
09/12/2010




Nitrogen Fertilizer Applications
     to Biofuel Feedstocks:
       Current Situation




 Total N Fertilizer Use in the Main
 Biofuel-Producing Countries (Mt N)




                              Source: IFA




                                                   11
09/12/2010




 Fertilizer Applications to Biofuel
 Feedstocks in 2008/09 (Mt nutrients)
         3.0% of world consumption




                                     4.8%
                      2.5%




                                            Source: IFA




Nitrogen Fertilizer Applications
     to Biofuel Feedstocks:
        Outlook to 2019




                                                                 12
09/12/2010




N Fertilizer Applications to Ethanol
Feedstocks (Mt N)




N Fertilizer Applications to Ethanol
Feedstocks (Mt N)




                                              13
09/12/2010




N Fertilizer Applications to Biodiesel
Feedstocks (Mt N)




World N Fertilizer Applications to
Total Biofuel Feedstocks (Mt N)




                                                14
09/12/2010




for questions/comments:
pheffer@fertilizer.org




                                 15

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Impact of Biofuel Production on World Nitrogen Fertilizer Demand: Current Situation and Outlook, P. Heffer, IFA

  • 1. 09/12/2010 IMPACT OF BIOFUEL PRODUCTION ON WORLD NITROGEN FERTILIZER DEMAND: CURRENT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK Patrick Heffer, IFA 5th International Nitrogen Conference 3-7 December 2010, New Delhi, India Contents  Biofuel production: current situation and outlook  Main feedstocks used for biofuel production  Nitrogen fertilizer use by crop  Nitrogen use efficiency: current trend and outlook  Anticipated evolution of fertilizer use by crop  Nitrogen fertilizer application to biofuel feedstocks o Current situation o Outlook to 2019 1
  • 2. 09/12/2010 Biofuel Production: Current Situation and Outlook Outlook for World Ethanol and Biodiesel Production (billion liters) 74.3 Bl ethanol + 158.8 Bl ethanol + 15.2 Bl biodiesel 41.2 Bl biodiesel in 2007-09 in 2019 2007-09: 86% of the ethanol output used as biofuel 2019: 93% of the ethanol output to be used as biofuel Source: OECD-FAO 2
  • 3. 09/12/2010 Outlook for World Ethanol and Biodiesel Production (billion liters) US ethanol + Brazilian ethanol + EU ethanol + EU biodiesel = Source: OECD-FAO • 82% of total output in 2007-09 • 81% of total output in 2019 Main Feedstocks Used for Biofuel Production 3
  • 4. 09/12/2010 World Ethanol Production by Feedstock Source: OECD-FAO World Biodiesel Production by Feedstock Source: OECD-FAO 4
  • 5. 09/12/2010 Share of Feedstocks Used for Biofuel Production from Global Production Source: OECD-FAO Share of Feedstocks Used for Biofuel Production from Total Production Ethanol Feedstocks Biodiesel Feedstocks 62% 88% 37% Source: FAPRI 5
  • 6. 09/12/2010 Nitrogen Fertilizer Use by Crop N Fertilizer Use by Crop at the Global Level in 2007/08 Source: IFA 6
  • 7. 09/12/2010 N Fertilizer Use by Crop in Biofuel Producing Countries in 2007/08 Source: IFA Nitrogen Use Efficiency: Current Trend and Outlook 7
  • 8. 09/12/2010 N Fertilizer Use Efficiency (PFPN) in Maize Production in the USA Source: Snyder (2009) N Fertilizer Use Efficiency (PFPN) in Sugar Cane Production in Brazil Source: Cunha and Prochnow (unpublished data) 8
  • 9. 09/12/2010 Evolution* of N Fertilizer Deliveries vs. Grain Production in France cereal + rapeseed production N fertilizer deliveries (*) relative evolution (1990 = 100) Source: UNIFA Anticipated Evolution of Nitrogen Fertilizer Use by Crop 9
  • 10. 09/12/2010 Anticipated Evolution of N Fertilizer Use by Crop (for ethanol feedstocks) Share of Total Domestic N Fertilizer Consumption (%) Volume (Mt N) Source: IFA Anticipated Evolution of N Fertilizer Use by Crop (for biodiesel feedstocks) Share of Total Domestic N Fertilizer Consumption (%) Volume (Mt N) Source: IFA 10
  • 11. 09/12/2010 Nitrogen Fertilizer Applications to Biofuel Feedstocks: Current Situation Total N Fertilizer Use in the Main Biofuel-Producing Countries (Mt N) Source: IFA 11
  • 12. 09/12/2010 Fertilizer Applications to Biofuel Feedstocks in 2008/09 (Mt nutrients) 3.0% of world consumption 4.8% 2.5% Source: IFA Nitrogen Fertilizer Applications to Biofuel Feedstocks: Outlook to 2019 12
  • 13. 09/12/2010 N Fertilizer Applications to Ethanol Feedstocks (Mt N) N Fertilizer Applications to Ethanol Feedstocks (Mt N) 13
  • 14. 09/12/2010 N Fertilizer Applications to Biodiesel Feedstocks (Mt N) World N Fertilizer Applications to Total Biofuel Feedstocks (Mt N) 14