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 The probability of an event is how likely it is
to occur.
 Is a number between 0 and 1.
 Probability of 1: event is certain to occur.
 Probability of 0: event will never occur.
 Probability of ½: equally likely to occur or not.
 When all outcomes are equally likely, the
theoretical probability that an event A will
occur is:
 Can be expressed as a fraction, decimal, or %.
 You roll a six-sided die with sides numbered
1 through 6. Find the probability of:
 rolling a 4.
 rolling an odd #.
 rolling a # less than 7.
 A spinner has 8 equal-size sections
numbered 1 though 8. Find the probability
of:
 spinning a 6.
 spinning a # greater than 5.
 You put a CD that has 8 songs in your CD
player and set it to random. The player plays
all 8 songs without repeating any song.
 What is the probability all songs are played in
the same order listed on the CD?
 What is the probability that 2 of your 4
favorite songs are played first, in any order?
 There are 9 students on the math team. You
draw their names one at a time to determine
their order at the competition.
 What is the probability that 3 of the 5 seniors
on the team will be chosen last?
 Five cards are drawn from a 52-card deck.
What is the probability that the first two cards
are red?
 It is not always possible to find theoretical
probability.
 Can sometimes find the experimental
probability using an experiment, survey, or
history of the event.
 In 1998, a survey asked internet users for
their ages. Find the exp. probability that a
randomly selected internet user is:
 at most 20 years old?
 at least 41 years old?
Age # of users
Under 21 1636
21 -40 6617
41 – 60 3693
61 – 80 491
Over 80 6
 Found by calculating the ratio of two lengths,
areas, or volumes.
 Example:
 Find the probability that a randomly thrown
dart would hit the shaded region.
4
 You have a 2 hour movie recorded at the
beginning of a tape that holds 6 hours of
recordings. Your brother randomly records a
30 minute show on the tape. What is the
probability that his show records over part of
your movie?
 A store is open from 8 am to 8 pm. The
manager works 9-4. What is the probability
that the manager is there during a random
customer’s 15 minute visit?
 The target for a bean-bag toss game is a
rectangle 3 ft wide and 4 ft tall with 3 circular
holes, each with radius 1 foot. What is the
probability that a random bean-bag will pass
through one of the holes?

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12.3 intro to probability

  • 1.
  • 2.  The probability of an event is how likely it is to occur.  Is a number between 0 and 1.  Probability of 1: event is certain to occur.  Probability of 0: event will never occur.  Probability of ½: equally likely to occur or not.
  • 3.  When all outcomes are equally likely, the theoretical probability that an event A will occur is:  Can be expressed as a fraction, decimal, or %.
  • 4.  You roll a six-sided die with sides numbered 1 through 6. Find the probability of:  rolling a 4.  rolling an odd #.  rolling a # less than 7.
  • 5.  A spinner has 8 equal-size sections numbered 1 though 8. Find the probability of:  spinning a 6.  spinning a # greater than 5.
  • 6.  You put a CD that has 8 songs in your CD player and set it to random. The player plays all 8 songs without repeating any song.  What is the probability all songs are played in the same order listed on the CD?  What is the probability that 2 of your 4 favorite songs are played first, in any order?
  • 7.  There are 9 students on the math team. You draw their names one at a time to determine their order at the competition.  What is the probability that 3 of the 5 seniors on the team will be chosen last?
  • 8.  Five cards are drawn from a 52-card deck. What is the probability that the first two cards are red?
  • 9.  It is not always possible to find theoretical probability.  Can sometimes find the experimental probability using an experiment, survey, or history of the event.
  • 10.  In 1998, a survey asked internet users for their ages. Find the exp. probability that a randomly selected internet user is:  at most 20 years old?  at least 41 years old? Age # of users Under 21 1636 21 -40 6617 41 – 60 3693 61 – 80 491 Over 80 6
  • 11.  Found by calculating the ratio of two lengths, areas, or volumes.  Example:  Find the probability that a randomly thrown dart would hit the shaded region. 4
  • 12.  You have a 2 hour movie recorded at the beginning of a tape that holds 6 hours of recordings. Your brother randomly records a 30 minute show on the tape. What is the probability that his show records over part of your movie?
  • 13.  A store is open from 8 am to 8 pm. The manager works 9-4. What is the probability that the manager is there during a random customer’s 15 minute visit?
  • 14.  The target for a bean-bag toss game is a rectangle 3 ft wide and 4 ft tall with 3 circular holes, each with radius 1 foot. What is the probability that a random bean-bag will pass through one of the holes?