Ericsson envisions 50 billion connected devices by 2020 driven by new technologies and industries. It is working with operators and an open ecosystem to enable this vision. Ericsson promotes open innovation through its Labs program and Application Awards. The Labs provides tools and APIs to developers while the Awards encourages innovative mobile applications around a theme. Ericsson believes this open approach can help realize the huge opportunities of the new connectivity cycle.
Source: Ericsson Forecasts and Real measurements in 3GPP networks Globally across RNC, BSC and Packet Core
Key messages
Mobile telephony was a first inflection point for growth in connections
Now - early stages of the next major inflection point for our industry – the connection of a vast array of “things”.
Everything that benefits from a connection will have one. 2020: ~ 50B connections.
This exciting development is causing us think about our technology and our customers’ requirements differently.
We need to drive the market in creative ways and not be reactive to it.
One good example of a strategic step to drive the market is the formation of our ST Micro JV. Give some anecdotes on this.
Proof points
PLACES: ~0.5B fixed broadband connections 2010 -> 0.6B 2015 (but explosive growth in Mobile BB)
PEOPLE: ~5B mobile 2010 -> 7.9 B 2015 (driven by emerging markets in part. APAC, multiple subs, and shifting towards WCDMA/HSPA)
CONSUMER THINGS: iPad, smartphone, Kindle, tablet, mp3, cell phone / PDA, car electronics GPS / ABS, mobile video, games, home entertainment
INDUSTRY THINGS: remote monitoring, asset tracking, fleet management, telematics, automation and control, automated meter reading, SmartGrid, point-of-sale/ATM and wireless routing
Key messages
“Talk about being in the right place at the right time! I have a hard time conceiving of any other technology sector that will be the beneficiary of so many new application developments!”.
Drivers are: mobile connections bridging the digital divide, surge for broadband connections, multiple devices per person, M2M, industry specific solutions.
Ericsson cannot address many of the application opportunities without strong partners.
Furthermore, many of these strong partners recognize Ericsson’s unique position in the industry and have already approached us to form relationships with them. Our initial assessment is that if we choose our partners carefully we will create a win/win/win opportunity for us, them and our customers, some of whom may be new to Ericsson
Proof points
10x more devices – not just phones: iPad, smartphone, Kindle, tablet, mp3, cell phone / PDA, car electronics GPS / ABS, mobile video, games, home entertainment etc
M2M brings value to businesses by e.g. reducing labor and latency in its activities.
M2M devices deliver capabilities to multiple industries and include such applications as remote monitoring, asset tracking, fleet management, telematics, automation and control, automated meter reading, SmartGrid initiatives, point-of-sale/ATM and wireless routing. Mobile computing devices, together with traditional consumer electronics and devices with broadband access, offer increased durability, hardware/software integration, simple setup and lower support costs for customers and partners.
M2M represents a revenue growth opportunity for operators, beyond human connections. Increased operator activity: Sprint, Verizon Wireless, Vodafone, Orange, Telenor etc.
M2M: connections is already impacting data growth rates. Verizon Q1 numbers: 7.3 million (7.3%) of 101.1 million wireless connections are now M2M. AT&T Inc. reported 5.8 million M2M devices, or 6.7 percent of its total. Verizon expects its LTE network launch to cause this number to grow even quicker too.
Methodology:
Figures does not include (examples); RF-ID tags, Cellular watches, USB memories, Headsets, Femtocells
Consumer Electronics (CE) include: Networked TVs, Digital Media boxes, BluRay players etc.
Uncertain how many of the Connected CE devices that are actually networked - because of the technical complexities currently associated with connected home devices, manufacturers face a particular challenge in persuading owners of those devices to successfully install them and use them in the manner intended.
Confidence level: Low, since this is early in the growth period and we have to base the forecast on external sources. Likely to change as data matures.
<number>
>100B embedded processors => the remaining 16B+ devices: 16+3+1+30=50
Key messages: Operator M2M activities stepped-up during 2009
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Slide owner: 50 billion marketing program
Latest update: December 2009
Best before: December 2010
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A dedicated M2M unit is critical for an operator to succeed in the M2M space according to ABI Research. A few examples include:
Telefonica international M2M unit – aim to have 100 employees
Telenor Connexion - 60 employees
Orange M2M - 150 employees
AT&T has two units:
Emerging Devices Organization, established October 2008, focusing on devices that are wirelessly enabled for consumers. The unit has its own product design lab, sales team, and freedom to set its own pricing strategies.
In May 2010 AT&T created a new group - Advanced Enterprise Mobility Solutions - mobile applications and solutions for traditional and emerging devices to businesses, governments and organizations.
e.g. telephony 1G->2G->3G->4G->…
e.g. Apple app-store ecosystem
From Innovation 1.0 to Innovation 2.0.
Innovation 1.0: from zero to small scale. Bigger and bigger. Until becomes a large enough scale to be as platform.
Then we open the platform to become the open platform to establish Innovation 2.0.
NOTICE that NOT ALL innovation 1.0 are suitable to take the open platform strategy to become 2.0.
- There is a lot of things that can be done with the capabilities of the network that can’t be reached if you do things over-the-top
- Privacy and security are really key issues here
- But think what kind of cool applications you could create if you hade access to all places your user have been to in the last year or could transfer money between your users without any credit card etc
Any developer meet many problems.
Device platforms
Operator reach
Complex telecom world
Technology details
Access to advanced functionality
TTM (Time-toDemo, Time-to-Prototype)
This is of course impossible for a single developer to do.
Instead we think that it’s better that you have one interface to all these things..
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[Olof] The trick is to explain this slide in a very simple way to appeal to the target group of journalists.
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Two sentences: to innovate enablers to simply app dev by encapsulating cloud-side complexity; to open APIs to promote the convergence of networks.
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