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Results of survey among
members of the Hybrid User Forum
              -1-

                carried out
   as online survey by the Hybrid User
     Forum secretariat in April 2011
-1-
User expectations
 and vehicle size
Copenhagen
Derby / Arriva
Birmingham
London
LCVP (UK)
Bremen
Aachen
Nürnberg
Munich
Zuid-Holland
Amsterdam
Rotterdam (+PT)
Gent
Wallonia /TEC
Prague
Veolia (Paris)
UITP
Turin
Milan
Cagliari
ASSTRA (Italy)
San Sebastian
Barcelona
AVERE (Portugal)
Belgrade
Sibiu
URPT (Romania)
Sofia
Operators / authorities

                       other; 5




           local / regional
             authority; 7         public transport
                                   operator; 19




N: 31
Size of city / operational area
25
                                                                        22

20




15




10



                                5
5                                                  4


             0
0
     fewer than 100,000   100,000-500,000   500,000-1 million   more than 1 million
Size of fleet
9
                                             8
8

7
                   6            6
6

5

4

3
         2                                               2
2

1

0
        < 100   100 - 300   301 - 1000   1001 - 3000   > 3000
N: 25
Size of buses in operation
40000
                                                                                                         35464
35000


30000


25000


20000


15000                                12705

10000
                                                                                             5629
5000                     3159                                      3654
              953                                    696                          135
    0
           mini (<8m)   midi (8-   solo (2axle)   solo (3axle)   articulated    double-      double-   others / not
                        10.5m)                                                 articulated   decker     specified
N: 62335
Size of buses in operation
14000
                                           12705

12000


10000


8000


6000                                                                                                   5629


4000                                                                     3654
                            3159

2000
              953                                          696
                                                                                        135
    0
           mini (<8m)   midi (8-10.5m)   solo (2axle)   solo (3axle)   articulated    double-      double-decker
                                                                                     articulated
N: 26931
special conditions ?
•   hilly conditions (7) e.g.
•   narrow streets (10), e.g. historic centres
•   Emission requirements (5 - special?)
•   Traffic conditions (slow moving / many traffic
    lights) (4)

• Varying conditions esp. for larger operators
other alternative fuels / technologies
       16
                 14
       14
                             12
       12                                        11

       10                                                        9

         8
                                                                                6
         6                                                                             5
                                                                                                 4
         4
                                                                                                                                   2
         2                                                                                                     1     1

         0
                                                 y
                ds




                                                                               el l




                                                                                                 l




                                                                                                                                ne
                                                                                                              CE



                                                                                                                    er
                             s




                                                                                      G
                                                                 s




                                                                                               o
                                                r
                             ga




                                                               se
                                             tte




                                                                                      LP



                                                                                            an
                  n




                                                                                                                   oth
                                                                               lc




                                                                                                                              no
                                                                                                            nI
                                                            bu
              bl e



                        bio




                                                                                           eth
                                                                             ue
                                             a




                                                                                                          ni
                                         c/b



                                                           y
                        G/




                                                                        nf
           el




                                                       ll e




                                                                                                          ge
        ies




                                       tri
                      CN




                                                                        ge
                                                      tro




                                                                                                     dro
                                      l ec
          d




                                                                     dro
      ls/




                                                                                                     hy
                                  ll e
 f ue




                                                                 hy
                                a
                             sm
bio




                                                                                                                   other: water emulsion
…only two members had not tested/considered other alternatives…                                                                        N: 31
previous experience (hybrids)




       yes        no



                            N:31 (19/12)
Experienced fuel consumption
    In your experience with hybrids, how is/was the fuel consumption in daily operation
    (in comparison to conventional ICE buses under similar operational conditions)?
5
                                                      Mean: reduction 16%

4




3




2




1




0
     >10%    5-10%      <5%      similar    <5%    5-10%   10-15%   15-20%   20-25%   25-30 %   > 30%
    higher   higher    higher              lower   lower   lower     lower    lower    lower    lower


    • Variations on different routes / bus types
    • Variations summer / winter                                                                        N: 31
measuring consumption
18
                                        How was the measurement of fuel consumption
16
                                        reduction conducted and reported?
14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0
     in-house (by operator or    outsourced to an independent   We haven't done any              I am not sure.
     organising authority or a        testing organisation       measurement yet.
         combined team)
     Outsourced includes: By the bus manufacturer through their ECU, also done for the diesel buses.              N: 19
measuring consumption
12
                                                               What criteria were used
10
                                                               in the measuring/testing process?


8


6


4



2


0
     payload basis   payload basis    payload basis     city cycle       city cycle         other criteria used
      (simulated)       (half-load)       (in-service    (SORT cycle)   (real city cycle)
                                         passengers)
                                                                                                          N: 19
…other criteria…
                                       What criteria were used
                                       in the measuring/testing process?
• 24 hybrid buses have been
  operating for 1 year in everyday operation in 3 cities.
• real line operations
• Monitoring the hybrid bus in each route and driving in parallel
  with an ICE vehicle of same characteristics doing the same
  route twice, changing the drivers.
• London Buses Millbrook Route 159 Cycle.

• Comparation between ICE bus and hybrid bus simulating a
  bus route.
experienced maintenance costs
     For your hybrid vehicles, in comparison to ICE buses,
     maintenance costs are/were...?

8


7


6


5


4


3


2


1


0
    ...significantly lower.   ...slightly lower.   ...more or less the same.   ...slightly higher.   ...significantly higher.

                                                                                                                        N: 18
Driver training
9

8   What difference in fuel consumption
    have you experienced
7   through training drivers for hybrid buses?
6

5

4

3

2

1

0
    >20% fuel   15-20% fuel   10-15% fuel   5-10% fuel   0-5% fuel   Consumption     Our fuel use    We have not
     saving       saving        saving        saving      saving       remained       increased.       done any
                                                                     approximately                  driver training
                                                                       the same.                     for hybrids.
                                                                                                             N: 19
Other experience
                                                                 q13
Please describe any other experience your organisation has
with hybrid buses (e.g. driver satisfaction, noise level,
passenger satisfaction, public awareness, political support)?




  •   Political interest / support (8)
  •   Noise reduction (6)
  •   Technical problems (3) – incl. interior noise level
  •   Driver (very) satisfied (3)
  •   Passenger satisfaction – range from no notice, not
      satisfied to (very) satisfied…
                                                                N: 18
Discussion
Questionnaire results
        -2-
     User expectations
purchase and operation costs
considering purchasing hybrids




       yes        no



                                 N: 31
Driving forces
Please prioritise the driving forces that could
lead you to introduce hybrid buses into your fleet.

                                                                                 very high priority



                                                                                 high priority



                                                                                 medium priority



                                                                                 low priority



                                                                                 not a priority at all



 carbon      reduction in improved      general       political   reduction in
reduction    operational public image interest in     pressure    maintenance
objectives      costs                 alternative                    costs
                                       fuels and
                                      propulsion                                                N: 31
Acceptable purchase costs
    How much would you be willing to spend for the purchase of hybrid buses (compared to
    the purchase cost of an ICE bus)? This question relates to the initial purchase costs.

8
                      Mean: max 26%
7


6


5


4


3


2


1


0
    no extra   max    max    max      max    max    max    max    max    max     max     >
     invest.   +10%   +20%   +30%     +40%   +50%   +60%   +70%   +80%   +90%   +100%   +100%

                                                                                         N: 31
expected maintenance costs
     As compared to conventional ICE buses,
     do you expect maintenance costs of hybrid buses to be...

10                                    Mean: (-0.6)
9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0
     ...significantly lower.   ...slightly lower.   ...more or less the same.   ...slightly higher.   ...significantly higher.

                                                                                                                         N: 31
experienced maintenance costs
     For your hybrid vehicles, in comparison to ICE buses,
     maintenance costs are/were...?

8                                                                              Mean: (+1.0)
7


6


5


4


3


2


1


0
    ...significantly lower.   ...slightly lower.   ...more or less the same.   ...slightly higher.   ...significantly higher.

                                                                                                                        N: 18
Comparison: maintenance costs
 8


 7
                                                                                 Mean: (+1.0)
 6


 5


 4


 3


 2


 1


 0
     ...significantly lower.   ...slightly lower.    ...more or less the same.    ...slightly higher.   ...significantly higher.

                                                                                                                          N: 18

10
                                      Mean: (-0.6)
9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0
     ...significantly lower.   ...slightly lower.   ...more or less the same.    ...slightly higher.    ...significantly higher.



                                                                                                                          N: 31
expected fuel consumption
     As compared to your current buses under similar conditions, what would be your
     expectation of fuel consumption of hybrid buses in regular operation?

12                                                                    Mean: reduction 23%

10



8



6



4



2



0
       >10%    5-10%     <5%     similar    <5%    5-10%   10-15%   15-20%   20-25%   25-30 %   > 30%
      higher   higher   higher             lower   lower   lower     lower    lower    lower    lower

                                                                                                        N: 31
Comparison: fuel consumption
5
     experienced                                    Mean: reduction 16%
4




3




2




1




0
      >10%
     higher
              5-10%
              higher
                        <5%
                       higher
                                similar    <5%
                                          lower
                                                  5-10%
                                                  lower
                                                          10-15%
                                                          lower
                                                                   15-20%
                                                                    lower
                                                                            20-25%
                                                                             lower
                                                                                     25-30 %
                                                                                      lower
                                                                                               > 30%
                                                                                               lower    N: 18


     expected                                                        Mean: reduction 23%
12



10



8



6



4



2



0
      >10%    5-10%     <5%     similar    <5%    5-10%   10-15%   15-20%   20-25%   25-30 %   > 30%
     higher   higher   higher             lower   lower   lower     lower    lower    lower    lower
                                                                                                       N: 31
savings




          source: vdv
Driver training
What role do you expect driver training to play
in maximising the potential fuel saving benefits of hybrid vehicles?




 It won't play any role   It will play a minor     It will play a      It's the most    I don't know.
         at all.                   role.         significant role.   important thing.

                                                                                                        N: 31
Influencing factors
What (if any) change in conditions might convince you to accept higher costs for
hybrid vehicles than what you pay for your current vehicles?

•   External funding (18)
•   Political pressure (14)
•   Increasing fuel prices (13)
•   CO2-reduction (10)
•   Emission reduction (10)
•   LCC / reduction in fuel consumption etc. (4)

                                                                            N: 31 /multiple
Influencing factors
What (if any) change in conditions might convince you to accept higher costs for
hybrid vehicles than what you pay for your current vehicles?




    fuel       emission         CO2-         fuel price      political      funding
consumption   regulations     reduction                      pressure
   / LCC
                                                                                      N: 31
Demand for hybrid buses
1000
                                         882
900

800

700

600
                                                                                                   518
500

400                      364                                          369

300
                                                        200
200
          111
100
                                                                                     3
  0
       mini (<8m)   midi (8-10.5m)   solo (2axle)   solo (3axle)   articulated     double-     double-decker
                                                                                 articulated
                                                                                                      N: 30
Discussion

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Hybrid User Forum survey Results

  • 1. Results of survey among members of the Hybrid User Forum -1- carried out as online survey by the Hybrid User Forum secretariat in April 2011
  • 3. Copenhagen Derby / Arriva Birmingham London LCVP (UK) Bremen Aachen Nürnberg Munich Zuid-Holland Amsterdam Rotterdam (+PT) Gent Wallonia /TEC Prague Veolia (Paris) UITP Turin Milan Cagliari ASSTRA (Italy) San Sebastian Barcelona AVERE (Portugal) Belgrade Sibiu URPT (Romania) Sofia
  • 4. Operators / authorities other; 5 local / regional authority; 7 public transport operator; 19 N: 31
  • 5. Size of city / operational area 25 22 20 15 10 5 5 4 0 0 fewer than 100,000 100,000-500,000 500,000-1 million more than 1 million
  • 6. Size of fleet 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 < 100 100 - 300 301 - 1000 1001 - 3000 > 3000 N: 25
  • 7. Size of buses in operation 40000 35464 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 12705 10000 5629 5000 3159 3654 953 696 135 0 mini (<8m) midi (8- solo (2axle) solo (3axle) articulated double- double- others / not 10.5m) articulated decker specified N: 62335
  • 8. Size of buses in operation 14000 12705 12000 10000 8000 6000 5629 4000 3654 3159 2000 953 696 135 0 mini (<8m) midi (8-10.5m) solo (2axle) solo (3axle) articulated double- double-decker articulated N: 26931
  • 9. special conditions ? • hilly conditions (7) e.g. • narrow streets (10), e.g. historic centres • Emission requirements (5 - special?) • Traffic conditions (slow moving / many traffic lights) (4) • Varying conditions esp. for larger operators
  • 10. other alternative fuels / technologies 16 14 14 12 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 y ds el l l ne CE er s G s o r ga se tte LP an n oth lc no nI bu bl e bio eth ue a ni c/b y G/ nf el ll e ge ies tri CN ge tro dro l ec d dro ls/ hy ll e f ue hy a sm bio other: water emulsion …only two members had not tested/considered other alternatives… N: 31
  • 11. previous experience (hybrids) yes no N:31 (19/12)
  • 12. Experienced fuel consumption In your experience with hybrids, how is/was the fuel consumption in daily operation (in comparison to conventional ICE buses under similar operational conditions)? 5 Mean: reduction 16% 4 3 2 1 0 >10% 5-10% <5% similar <5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-20% 20-25% 25-30 % > 30% higher higher higher lower lower lower lower lower lower lower • Variations on different routes / bus types • Variations summer / winter N: 31
  • 13. measuring consumption 18 How was the measurement of fuel consumption 16 reduction conducted and reported? 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 in-house (by operator or outsourced to an independent We haven't done any I am not sure. organising authority or a testing organisation measurement yet. combined team) Outsourced includes: By the bus manufacturer through their ECU, also done for the diesel buses. N: 19
  • 14. measuring consumption 12 What criteria were used 10 in the measuring/testing process? 8 6 4 2 0 payload basis payload basis payload basis city cycle city cycle other criteria used (simulated) (half-load) (in-service (SORT cycle) (real city cycle) passengers) N: 19
  • 15. …other criteria… What criteria were used in the measuring/testing process? • 24 hybrid buses have been operating for 1 year in everyday operation in 3 cities. • real line operations • Monitoring the hybrid bus in each route and driving in parallel with an ICE vehicle of same characteristics doing the same route twice, changing the drivers. • London Buses Millbrook Route 159 Cycle. • Comparation between ICE bus and hybrid bus simulating a bus route.
  • 16. experienced maintenance costs For your hybrid vehicles, in comparison to ICE buses, maintenance costs are/were...? 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ...significantly lower. ...slightly lower. ...more or less the same. ...slightly higher. ...significantly higher. N: 18
  • 17. Driver training 9 8 What difference in fuel consumption have you experienced 7 through training drivers for hybrid buses? 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 >20% fuel 15-20% fuel 10-15% fuel 5-10% fuel 0-5% fuel Consumption Our fuel use We have not saving saving saving saving saving remained increased. done any approximately driver training the same. for hybrids. N: 19
  • 18. Other experience q13 Please describe any other experience your organisation has with hybrid buses (e.g. driver satisfaction, noise level, passenger satisfaction, public awareness, political support)? • Political interest / support (8) • Noise reduction (6) • Technical problems (3) – incl. interior noise level • Driver (very) satisfied (3) • Passenger satisfaction – range from no notice, not satisfied to (very) satisfied… N: 18
  • 20. Questionnaire results -2- User expectations purchase and operation costs
  • 22. Driving forces Please prioritise the driving forces that could lead you to introduce hybrid buses into your fleet. very high priority high priority medium priority low priority not a priority at all carbon reduction in improved general political reduction in reduction operational public image interest in pressure maintenance objectives costs alternative costs fuels and propulsion N: 31
  • 23. Acceptable purchase costs How much would you be willing to spend for the purchase of hybrid buses (compared to the purchase cost of an ICE bus)? This question relates to the initial purchase costs. 8 Mean: max 26% 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 no extra max max max max max max max max max max > invest. +10% +20% +30% +40% +50% +60% +70% +80% +90% +100% +100% N: 31
  • 24. expected maintenance costs As compared to conventional ICE buses, do you expect maintenance costs of hybrid buses to be... 10 Mean: (-0.6) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ...significantly lower. ...slightly lower. ...more or less the same. ...slightly higher. ...significantly higher. N: 31
  • 25. experienced maintenance costs For your hybrid vehicles, in comparison to ICE buses, maintenance costs are/were...? 8 Mean: (+1.0) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ...significantly lower. ...slightly lower. ...more or less the same. ...slightly higher. ...significantly higher. N: 18
  • 26. Comparison: maintenance costs 8 7 Mean: (+1.0) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ...significantly lower. ...slightly lower. ...more or less the same. ...slightly higher. ...significantly higher. N: 18 10 Mean: (-0.6) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ...significantly lower. ...slightly lower. ...more or less the same. ...slightly higher. ...significantly higher. N: 31
  • 27. expected fuel consumption As compared to your current buses under similar conditions, what would be your expectation of fuel consumption of hybrid buses in regular operation? 12 Mean: reduction 23% 10 8 6 4 2 0 >10% 5-10% <5% similar <5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-20% 20-25% 25-30 % > 30% higher higher higher lower lower lower lower lower lower lower N: 31
  • 28. Comparison: fuel consumption 5 experienced Mean: reduction 16% 4 3 2 1 0 >10% higher 5-10% higher <5% higher similar <5% lower 5-10% lower 10-15% lower 15-20% lower 20-25% lower 25-30 % lower > 30% lower N: 18 expected Mean: reduction 23% 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 >10% 5-10% <5% similar <5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-20% 20-25% 25-30 % > 30% higher higher higher lower lower lower lower lower lower lower N: 31
  • 29. savings source: vdv
  • 30. Driver training What role do you expect driver training to play in maximising the potential fuel saving benefits of hybrid vehicles? It won't play any role It will play a minor It will play a It's the most I don't know. at all. role. significant role. important thing. N: 31
  • 31. Influencing factors What (if any) change in conditions might convince you to accept higher costs for hybrid vehicles than what you pay for your current vehicles? • External funding (18) • Political pressure (14) • Increasing fuel prices (13) • CO2-reduction (10) • Emission reduction (10) • LCC / reduction in fuel consumption etc. (4) N: 31 /multiple
  • 32. Influencing factors What (if any) change in conditions might convince you to accept higher costs for hybrid vehicles than what you pay for your current vehicles? fuel emission CO2- fuel price political funding consumption regulations reduction pressure / LCC N: 31
  • 33. Demand for hybrid buses 1000 882 900 800 700 600 518 500 400 364 369 300 200 200 111 100 3 0 mini (<8m) midi (8-10.5m) solo (2axle) solo (3axle) articulated double- double-decker articulated N: 30