1. Hyre Weekly Commentary
May 7, 2012
The most important news last week may have actually happened this past weekend.
On Sunday, voters went to the polls in France, Greece, and Germany and the results could have a
major impact on world markets. French voters sent incumbent president Nicholas Sarkozy
packing and, instead, elected Socialist Party candidate Francois Hollande. Hollande “has pledged
to shift the burden of economic hardship onto the rich and to resolve the protracted euro
sovereign-debt crisis by softening the current prescription of austerity,” according to The Wall
Street Journal. While his strategy is debatable, it will likely cause a rift with Germany and add
uncertainty to recent eurozone agreements.
Greek voters also went to the polls and “delivered a stinging rejection of the two incumbent
parties, with many people casting ballots for smaller, far-left and far-right parties,” according to
the The Wall Street Journal. This, too, will likely result in more political and economic
uncertainty. And in Germany, incumbent Angela Merkel’s party suffered some setbacks in state
elections.
What’s leading to all the angst in Europe? Here are three things:
1. Recession fears – 11 European countries have now experienced two consecutive quarters
of economic contraction.
2. Unemployment fears – the unemployment rate across the eurozone is at a record high.
3. Business confidence fears – April’s read on the manufacturing PMI for the eurozone – a
measure of confidence among businesses – fell to the lowest since June 2009.
Sources: MarketWatch, The Guardian
The bottom line is citizens are voting for change, but “political realities will complicate even
more what is an already delicate economic and financial outlook for Europe, the world’s largest
economic area,” according to Mohamed El-Arian, CEO and Co-CIO of PIMCO, as reported by
CNBC.
These elections show that the economic crisis that began in 2008 is still rippling throughout the
world.

2. 1- 1- 3- 5- 10-
Data as of 5/4/12 Week Y-T-D Year Year Year Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic -2.4% 8.9% 2.2% 14.7% -1.9% 2.7%
Stocks)
DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) -2.1 6.7 -15.7 9.6 -5.6 4.8
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 1.9 N/A 3.2 3.2 4.6 5.1
Gold (per ounce) -1.2 4.4 6.7 21.8 19.0 18.1
DJ-UBS Commodity Index -2.5 -2.5 -18.8 5.8 -4.7 3.5
DJ Equity All REIT TR Index -0.6 12.9 9.7 28.8 0.4 10.5
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested
dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are
annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-,
five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at
the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be
invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
WHAT DO DOTS HAVE TO DO WITH BEING A BETTER INVESTOR? In his fascinating
new book, Imagine: How Creativity Works, author Jonah Lehrer describes the creative process
and what steps we can all take to be a little more creative. One of those steps is to talk to more
people and expose yourself to new situations. By “colliding” more often with people who are not
like you and throwing yourself into new environments (like a foreign country), your mind will
come up with more new ideas than you could have thought of on your own.
And, while business owners may not like this, Lehrer’s research suggests, “The most important
place in every office is not the boardroom, or the lab, or the library. It’s the coffee machine.” It’s
those casual conversations with colleagues that generate new interactions and spark ideas.
This leads to an important point about investing.
Brian Uzzi, a professor at the Kellog School of Management, studied the instant messages (IM)
sent by traders at a large hedge fund over an eighteen-month period. As reported in Lehrer’s
book, these traders sent more than two million messages over that period and the average trader
was involved in 16 different IM conversations simultaneously – talk about multitasking!
Essentially, these traders were rapidly communicating with each other and trying to make sense
of the latest news so they could profitably trade on it.
As summarized by Lehrer, Uzzi concluded, “The best traders were the most connected, and
people who carried on more IM conversations and sent more messages also made more money.”
Further, Uzzi said, “The act of investing is like solving a difficult puzzle. These traders are trying
to connect the dots. Because the traders are listening to their network, they manage to
accomplish what they could never have done by themselves.”
In essence, successful investing partly relies on “connecting the dots” of information that
bombard us. While we’re not day traders like the people Uzzi studied at the hedge fund, the

3. concept of connecting the dots still applies – albeit on a much longer timeframe. And, to connect
the dots, we have a large network of colleagues who can help us separate the daily noise from
what’s truly meaningful.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Everyone who's ever taken a shower has had an idea. It's the person who gets out of the shower,
dries off, and does something about it who makes a difference.”
--Nolan Bushnell, founder of Atari, Inc. and Chuck E. Cheese’s Pizza-Time Theaters
Best regards,
Jim Hyre, CFP®
Registered Principal
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Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in
general.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.
* The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.
* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by www.usagold.com.
* The DJ/AIG Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The
Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen
as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment
Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future
performance.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. mc101507
* Some newsletter content was prepared by PEAK for use by James Hyre, CFP®, registered principal
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* The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments
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the forgoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jim Hyre and not necessary those of RJFS or Raymond
James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a
solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security to herein. Tax or legal matters should be discussed with the appropriate
professional.
Jim Hyre, CFP®
Registered Principal
Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.

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