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Budget~09 05 12
1.
What state are
we in? Comments on the 2012-13 Federal Budget 9 May 2012 Professor Ian Harper Deloitte Access Economics
2.
© 2012 Deloitte
Touche Tohmatsu 1 Source: Deloitte Access Economics; Budget Statement No 2 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 GDP growth – Budget (%) 2.0 3.0 3.25 3.0 GDP growth – DAE (%) 2.0 2.9 3.2 3.5 Unemployment – Budget (%) 4.9 5.25 5.5 5.5 Unemployment – DAE (%) 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.5 CPI – Budget (%) 3.6 1.25 3.25 2.5 CPI– DAE (%) 3.1 2.6 3.2 2.8 Wages – Budget (%) 3.8 3.5 3.75 3.75 Wages– DAE (LPI)(%) 3.8 3.6 4.0 4.2 Current account balance - Budget -2.4 -3 -4.75 -6 Current account balance – DAE (% of GDP) -2.4 -2.7 -3.9 -4.3 A ‘beautiful’ set of (aggregate) numbers
3.
© 2012 Deloitte
Touche Tohmatsu 2 Source: Budget Statement No 1 But they conceal the two-speed economy
4.
© 2012 Deloitte
Touche Tohmatsu 3 Source: RBA 1861-2009, Maximising growth in a mining boom, (2011) Ed Shann, 2009-2014. Unprecedented boom in mining investment
5.
© 2011 Deloitte
Touche Tohmatsu 4 The ‘Brisbane Line’ North-west of Brisbane Line 20% of employment 53% of investment projects South-east of Brisbane Line: 80% of employment 47% of investment projects Source: ABS 6291.0.55.001, Deloitte Access Economics’ Investment Monitor
6.
© 2012 Deloitte
Touche Tohmatsu 5 • The Budget is projected to return to surplus in 2012-13 – a 1.4% of GDP increase in revenue and a 1.0% of GDP decline in expenditure, one of the sharpest fiscal contractions on record The Budget and the two-speed economy - 1 Source: Budget Statement No 1
7.
© 2012 Deloitte
Touche Tohmatsu 6 Source: IMF world economic outlook, Treasury Debt and deficits
8.
© 2012 Deloitte
Touche Tohmatsu 7 • Spreading the benefits of the boom – Increase in Family Tax Benefit Part A – New supplementary allowance for people on income support payments – The new Schoolkids bonus – Lifting the tax free threshold from $6,000 to $18,200 • Helping business to invest – Carry-back tax losses – Tax breaks for small business (but delaying company tax break of 1%) • Building a more productive workforce – National Partnership Agreement on Skills Reform – New skills measures to assist mature age workers • Building productivity by investing in infrastructure – Duplicate the Pacific Highway by 2016 – $350 million per year for Roads to Recovery program – $232 million towards the Torrens and Goodwood rail project in Adelaide The Budget and the two-speed economy - 2
9.
© 2012 Deloitte
Touche Tohmatsu 8 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia; Australian Stock Exchange Implications for monetary policy
10.
© 2012 Deloitte
Touche Tohmatsu 9 • Will the projected Budget surplus actually materialise? • Will the planned fiscal contraction do more harm than good to the non-resource sectors of the economy? • Will conditions in Europe deteriorate to the point that we need further fiscal stimulus? • Will commodity prices fall sufficiently to slow even the resources sector of the economy? • Will the Budget boost the confidence of the cautious consumer? Unresolved questions
11.
© 2011 Deloitte
Touche Tohmatsu 10 10 General information only This presentation contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or their related entities (collectively the “Deloitte Network”) is, by means of this presentation, rendering professional advice or services. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. No entity in the Deloitte Network shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this presentation. About Deloitte Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/au/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and deep local expertise to help clients succeed wherever they operate. Deloitte's approximately 170,000 professionals are committed to becoming the standard of excellence. About Deloitte Australia In Australia, the member firm is the Australian partnership of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu. As one of Australia’s leading professional services firms. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu and its affiliates provide audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services through approximately 5,700 people across the country. Focused on the creation of value and growth, and known as an employer of choice for innovative human resources programs, we are dedicated to helping our clients and our people excel. For more information, please visit our web site at www.deloitte.com.au. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
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David Rumbens
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