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MARGINAL EMISSIONS RATES IN ENERGY SYSTEM CHANGE  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The 2050 target Results from UK MARKAL UK CO 2  Emissions Electricity Emissions Intensity
Residential Sector Heating (service demand)
CO 2  Reduction Performance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The standard approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
An alternative method -  marginal CO 2  rates The CO 2  actually saved due to a change in electricity demand is related to which power stations actually respond to that change.
Baseload
Intermittent Generation
Dispatchable Generation
The observed response of generators in GB ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
GB Electricity Marginal Emissions 2002 to 2009 inclusive Source:  Hawkes, A.D. (2010) Estimating Marginal Emissions Rates in National Electricity Systems. Energy Policy 38(10) 5977-5987. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.05.053 Change in System Load (GWh/h) Change in System CO 2  Rate (ktCO 2 /h) Linear Fit: y = 0.69 x
Stats of the MEF Change in System Load (GWh/h) GB System Load (GW) Change in System Load (GWh/h) Change in System CO 2  Rate (ktCO 2 /h) Marginal Emissions Factor (kgCO 2 /kWh) Number of Observations Probability of System Load y = 0.69 x
Change over time ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Time Period Marginal Emissions Rate (kgCO2/kWh) 2002-2009 0.69 kgCO 2 /kWh 2016 0.6 kgCO2/kWh 2020-2025 0.51 kgCO 2 /kWh
What does this mean? ,[object Object]
An alternative view of the build margin ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
An alternative view of the build margin (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
An alternative view of the build margin (3) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Framework for analysing the build margin ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Adam Hawkes | Marginal Emissions Rates in Energy System Change

  • 1.
  • 2. The 2050 target Results from UK MARKAL UK CO 2 Emissions Electricity Emissions Intensity
  • 3. Residential Sector Heating (service demand)
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. An alternative method - marginal CO 2 rates The CO 2 actually saved due to a change in electricity demand is related to which power stations actually respond to that change.
  • 10.
  • 11. GB Electricity Marginal Emissions 2002 to 2009 inclusive Source: Hawkes, A.D. (2010) Estimating Marginal Emissions Rates in National Electricity Systems. Energy Policy 38(10) 5977-5987. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.05.053 Change in System Load (GWh/h) Change in System CO 2 Rate (ktCO 2 /h) Linear Fit: y = 0.69 x
  • 12. Stats of the MEF Change in System Load (GWh/h) GB System Load (GW) Change in System Load (GWh/h) Change in System CO 2 Rate (ktCO 2 /h) Marginal Emissions Factor (kgCO 2 /kWh) Number of Observations Probability of System Load y = 0.69 x
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.

Notas del editor

  1. This talk is inspired by the fact that many economists hold the view that if one analyses the economics of the marginal system, they might end up with the right answer. But if one were to analyse the economics of the average system, they will definitely get the wrong answer.
  2. Radical change, dynamics of this change important
  3. Origin of 0.43