1. Barriers to Agricultural
Technology Adoption in
Developing Countries, and
the Potential Role of
Biofortification
Alan de Brauw
Markets Trade and Institutions Division, International Food Policy
Research Institute and Flagship Leader, Agriculture for Nutrition and
Health (CGIAR)

2. How can we better nourish 9 billion?
 Food availability is not a problem, nor is it likely to be
 In fact, there is a great deal of untapped agricultural
potential in specific regions
Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South Asia, Cambodia
 More important is what kind of food will be available
More nutritious crops need to be more available
More nutritious crops now include biofortified crops– staple
crops bred for additional micronutrients

3. Major Grain Availability in the World,
2012
Crop
Total Production
(MMT)
Daily Calories per
Capita
Rice 720 1014
Wheat 670 865
Maize 872 1092
TOTAL 2971
Data from FAOStat; assumed population of 7 billion

4. Even with plenty of calorie
“availability”…
 Untapped Productivity Potential in Several Parts of the
World
 But at current price levels and trends there is a large
underinvestment in more nutritious foods

5. Untapped Productivity: Evidence on
Average Yields (t/ha)
Maize Rice Wheat
World 4.9 4.4 3.1
Africa 2.0 2.5 2.4
South Asia 2.7 3.5 2.8
Data from FAO Stat

6. Untapped Productivity in sub-Saharan
Africa and elsewhere
AGO
ALB ARGARM
ATG
AUS
AUT
AZE
BDI
BEL
BEN
BFA
BGD
BGR
BHS
BIH
BLR
BLZBOL
BRA
BRB
BTN
BWA
CAF
CAN
CHECHL
CHN
CIV
CMR
COG
COL
COM
CPV
CRI
CUB
CZE
DEU
DJI
DMADOM
DZA
ECU
EGY
ESP
ETH
FJI
FRA
FSM
GABGEO
GHA
GMBGNB
GRC
GRD
GTMGUYHND
HRV
HTI
HUN
IDN
IND
IRN
IRQ
ISR
ITA
JAM
JOR
JPN
KAZ
KEN
KGZ
KHM
KORLAO
LBN
LBYLKA
LSO
LTU
LUX
MAR
MDG
MDV MEX
MKD
MLI
MOZ
MRT
MUS
MWI
MYS
NAM
NER
NGA
NIC
NLD
NPL
NZL
PAK
PAN
PER
PHL
PNG
POL PRT
PRY
ROMRUS
RWA
SAU
SDN
SEN
SLE
SLV
SRB
SUR
SVK
SVN
SWZ
SYR
TGO
THA
TJK
TKM
TMP
TTO
TUR
TZA
UGA
UKR
URY
USA
UZB
VCT
VENVNM
VUT
YEM
ZAF
ZAR
ZMB
ZWE
89101112
Logarithm,AverageMaizeYield,2009
4 6 8 10 12
Logarithm, GDP per Capita, 2009

7. From recent National Geographic

8. How to improve agricultural
technology adoption?
 World Agricultural production is not close to reaching its
potential
Particularly true in sub-Saharan Africa
 Even without any new technology, world production
could be much higher
Need is to induce farmers to switch from traditional
varieties of crops to modern varieties
But how?

9. Question 1: Is it profitable for
farmers to grow modern varieties?
 Suri (2011) built a framework allowing
heterogenous returns to growing hybrids,
finds:
Group of farmers with high potential returns,
not growing hybrids, but high cost of
obtaining seeds and fertilizer (so they don’t)
Another group with positive but lower returns
grows hybrids
Others do not grow hybrids all the time, have
essentially zero returns
 New question: how can modern varieties be
made profitable for smallholder farmers?

10. 10 Challenges for Adoption
(ATAI)
1. Lack of Information
2. Risk and Uncertainty
3. Lack of Finance
4. Labor Market Problems
5. Land Market Problems
6. Externalities
7. Coordination Failures
8. Distribution Problems
9. Lack of appropriateness
10. Distorted Prices

11. Technologies not Appropriate
 Farmers may have different preferences than policy-
makers/breeders
Policy makers may be too risk averse in approving new
 Available technology may not be right for marginal
land, etc.
Profits may actually be variable to higher yielding
varieties of appropriate crops
 Taste, cultivation attributes may also matter
Can potentially include drought/heat resistance

12. Intervention Ideas : Appropriate
Technologies
 More Participatory Breeding? (Walker, 2008)
 But lack of evidence this could be cost effective
 Need to consider gender in developing interventions for
appropriate technologies
 Women often lack same access to improved seeds, inputs (even
within households in west Africa)
 Difficult to predict the gender distributional consequences of
new technologies targeted to women (e.g. von Braun, 1989)
 May be a need for different types of technologies as
well

13. Average Yield Increases, Selected
Crops (1961=100)
50
100
150
200
250
300
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Maize Dry Peas Vegetables Rice

14. Percent Changes in Cereal and Pulse
Production, and in Population, 1965-1999
0
50
100
150
200
250
India
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Developing
India
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Developing
World
Developing
Grains Pulses Population

15. Evidence: Shares of daily calorie
consumption by food groups
Ideal US China Bangladesh
Starchy
Staples
48 31 49 80
Legumes &
Nuts
22 5 3 4
Animal & Fish
Products
10 14 20 4
Fruits &
Vegetables
9 7 9 2
Fats & Sugars 11 43 19 10
Total Calories 2200 Too many Too many Too few
Source for “Ideal” shares: Thompson and Meerman, FAO, 2013

16. New Idea: Value Chains for Enhanced
Nutrition
 Idea: Intervene in Value Chains to improve the
consumption of nutritious crops
Legumes; Vegetables/Fruits; Animal Source Foods
 Income increases are not sufficient to improve diet
 Policies sometimes promote production of grains at the
expense of healthier products
 Interventions should work through prices (reductions);
income; or information
Should consider food safety as intervention is designed if
warranted

17. Inputs Farmer
Buyers
(Middlemen)
, Processors,
Sellers
Consumer
Value Chain
Financing
Possible
Interventions

18. Value Chains for Enhanced Nutrition:
Example
 IFPRI Project: Laiterie du Berger (LB) in St Louis, Senegal buys milk
from semi-nomadic herders in northern Senegal to produce yogurt
and a fortified yogurt product called Thiakry
 Milk availability is seasonal– LB has to import powder to make Thiakry
 Population producing yogurt is highly anemic
 To try to regularize milk collection and improve iron status of
population, an intervention offered Thiakry for children when
specific producers met collection targets
 Preliminary result: Reduced anemia by 11 percentage points but
not clear it is cost effective

19. New Technology: Biofortification
 Idea Behind Biofortification (HarvestPlus): Breed essential
micronutrients (vitamin A, iron, zinc) right into staple crops
Vitamin A Orange Sweet Potato (Mozambique, Uganda)
High Iron Beans (Rwanda)
Vitamin A Cassava (Nigeria)
High Iron Pearl Millet (India)
Vitamin A (Orange) Maize (Zambia)
Others on the way
 Lack of micronutrients greatly contributes to deaths
among under 5s due to malnutrition and hinders child
development

20. HarvestPlus release varieties should…
 Have enough of the target micronutrient to make a
difference in nutritional status;
 Be bioavailable;
 Yield at least as well as varieties farmers use, among test
populations;
 Taste good (according to local populations)

21. Methods: HarvestPlus REU (2006-2009)
 Introduced OSP to farmers in 2007 in Mozambique and
Uganda through vine distribution and sales
 Accompanied by both agricultural and nutrition extension
in both countries
And marketing intervention to attempt to build
marketing chain
 Impacts measured with Randomized Control Trial; baseline
and endline; detailed dietary intake study
 Goal of project: Demonstrate reduction in vitamin A
deficiency in both countries

22. Primary Findings (2009): Vitamin A Deficiency
Mozambique
0 0.5 1
Treated
Children
Control
Children
Treated
Mothers
Control
Mothers
Endline Baseline
Uganda
0 0.5 1
Treated
Children
Control
Children
Endline Baseline

23. Additional Findings – “Medium Term”
Surveys
 In Uganda, about half of those growing orange sweet
potato still growing them in 2011
 In Mozambique, less success continuing to grow them by
2012
BUT…
 Also find a statistically significant difference between
vitamin A intakes among one treatment group and the
control in 2012 (mothers and children)
 Can attribute difference to OFSP consumption

24. Summary and Directions for Research
 Major grains are actually quite available and likely will
be in 2050
 However, there is need for additional investment in
breeding on two levels
Traditional, more nutritious crops (pulses and legumes;
vegetables)
Yield gains have lagged those of major grains
 Further effort on biofortified crops in future to fill in
micronutrient gaps