Ensuring Global Food and Nutrition Security: The Role of Europe

Click to edit Master title style

Ensuring Global Food and Nutrition
Security: The Role of Europe
Shenggen Fan
Director General | International Food Policy Research Institute

Teagasc and Royal Dublin Society Lecture
Dublin | April 11, 2013

Shenggen Fan, April 2013

Key messages

§  Global hunger and malnutrition persist

§  Current / future challenges threaten global
food and nutrition security

§  An integrated approach is needed to
sustainably improve food and nutrition security

§  Europe has a key role to play


50+ countries have serious / alarming /
extremely alarming levels of hunger
2012 Global Hunger Index
(Deutsche Welthungerhilfe, IFPRI, and Concern Worldwide)
GHI components:
• Proportion of undernourished
• Prevalence of underweight in children
• Under-five mortality rate

Shenggen Fan, April 2013 Source: von Grebmer et al. 2012

2 bil. +to edit Masterfrom style hunger
Click people suffer title hidden
Prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies

Shenggen Fan, April 2013 Source: HarvestPlus 2011

The costedit Master title stylehigh
Click to of undernutrition is
GDP losses due to micronutrient and vitamin deficiency

Source: Maple Croft 2011

E.g. Economic cost of micronutrient deficiencies in India =
US$17.3 bil. (2004 dollars) or 2.5% of GDP
Shenggen Fan, April 2013 (Stein and Qaim 2007)

Current /edit Master title style
Click to future challenges threaten
§  Increasing population and urbanization

§  Rising incomes and demand; diet changes

§  Growing natural resource constraints

§  Rising oil prices and biofuel expansion;
Increasing volatility of food prices

§  Climate change; higher frequency and
intensity of extreme weather events

Globalto edit Master titlelarger and
Click population will be style
more urban
World population (billions)
10 9.3 billion
Urban
8 Rural

6
Urban population to grow 75%
4
(2010-2050)

2

0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Source: Data from UN 2011

Larger and more urban population will demand
more and better food

Globalto edit Master titlemuch older,
Click population will be style
BUT Africa will be younger
Number of population by age group Share of population aged 15-24 and 60+
(billions) (%)
4.0 40
0-14 15-24
15-29 60+
3.0 Ageing 30
30-59 Youthful
60+
2.0 20

1.0 10

0.0 0
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Source: UN 2011 Source: UN 2011

Social protection and social security for poor & vulnerable groups
AND jobs for the youth are needed

Rising incomes will lead to style
Click to edit Master title
higher food demand and diet changes
GDP per capita (2005 $US in ‘000s) Change in consumption of agric. products,
2009-11 to 2021 (%)
14 50
World OECD
12 Developing Countries Developing countries
40
10

30
8

6
20

4
10
2

0 0
2000 2010 2020 2030

Source: Data from ERS-USDA 2012 Source: Data from OECD-FAO 2012

Global food demand expected to rise 60% by 2050 (FAO 2012)

Water to edit Master title style
Click scarcity is a growing problem

Areas of physical and economic water scarcity

Source: FAO 2013

Arable land scarcity is also a growing
problem

§  Global farmland is Annual loss of per capita arable land in
developing countries, 1961–2009
degrading rapidly
•  24% of global land
area is affected

§  Arable land per capita
is decreasing
•  65% (1970-2000)
•  Expected to further
by 50% by 2050

Source: Nkonya et al. 2011

Rising oil prices continue style
Click to edit Master title to drive
biofuel expansion
Oil and food prices, 2006-12 Biofuel production, 1996-2021
(2005 = 100) (Billion litres)
300
100
Food EU-27
250
Oil 80 USA
200 Brazil
60
150
40
100

20
50

0 0
Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Source: Data from IMF 2012 Source: Data from OECD-FAO Outlook 2012

§  Oil prices are highly correlated to food §  Global biofuel production projected to
prices almost double from 2009-11 to 2021

§  Rising oil prices make biofuels more §  Cereal use for biofuels to rise by 7%
profitable (Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008) annually—compared to 1.5% for food
and feed
(OECD/FAO 2012)

Food prices are hightitle style volatile
Click to edit Master and more

FAO food price index Global cereal prices (US$/ton)

300 800
Maize
Meat Price Index
Wheat
250 Dairy Price Index
600 Rice
Cereals Price Index
200
400

150

200
100

50 0

Source: Data from FAO 2012
Shenggen Fan, April 2013 Note: For Food Price Index 2002-2004=100

Climate change is a serious challenge
A 4o warmer world must be prevented

Business
as
usual
= 4o

Warmer
by
2100

There
would
be
LARGER

impacts
on
agriculture

and
ecosystems

SEA
LEVEL
RISE
is
likely
to
be
DROUGHT
AND
ARIDITY

15-‐20%
higher
in
the
tropics
would
likely
increase
in

than
global
mean
tropical
developing
countries

Shenggen Fan, April 2013 Source: Adapted from World Bank 2012


An integrated approach is needed
to sustainably improve food and nutrition security

AND

Europe has a key role to play


Towards an integrated approach to enhance
Click food and nutrition security
global
to edit Master title style

1.  Accelerate investments in agriculture to enhance
smallholder productivity, nutrition, and resource-use
efficiency

2.  Scale-up productive social safety nets to protect poor and
vulnerable groups

3.  Invest in climate-smart technologies and policies

4.  Improve global coordination to reduce food price volatility

5.  Support country-led processes for food and nutrition
security

1a. Accelerate investments in agriculture,
esp. for smallholder productivity
§  Invest in agricultural R&D and rural infrastructure

§  Improve access to inputs e.g. seeds and fertilizer

§  Increase access to high-value supply chains and
markets e.g. fruits, vegetables, and milk

§  Promote smallholder-friendly innovations
•  Financial and information services e.g. community banking, ICTs
•  Risk management mechanisms e.g. weather-based index
insurance
•  Institutional arrangements e.g. producer cooperatives


1b. Leverage agriculture for enhanced
nutrition and health
Biofortification - Reduces micronutrient deficiencies by
improving nutrient content of food crops

HarvestPlus (IFPRI)

Prioritization of public R&D investment to increase
innovation AND adoption by small farmers is needed

1c. Promote resource-efficient
technologies and practices
Integrated soil fertility management
§  Sustainable fertilizer use
•  Fertilizers + manure/compost → increase soil nutrient
availability, boost production, and reduce energy use
•  Nanofertilizers (slow-release)

Water conservation
§  Low-cost (solar panel) drip irrigation
§  Recycling
•  Reed-bed recycling of wastewater
•  Water storage reservoirs to capture rainfall → serve also as
hydropower facilities

1d. Address food losses stylewaste
Click to edit Master title and
Addressing food losses and waste is
key to resource-use efficiency

§  Developing countries
Losses mainly at early & middle stages of food
supply chain
Improve harvest techniques, farmer education,
storage facilities, & cooling chains

§  Developed countries
Waste mainly at the retail & consumer level
Increase consumer awareness and
promote behavior change

Shenggen Fan, April 2013 Source: Adapted from FAO 2011

2. Scale-up productive social safety nets

Better-targeted and more productive social protection
policies are needed to
•  secure basic livelihoods
•  protect poor people from risk and vulnerability

§  Explore new approaches, e.g. cross-sectoral social
protection, to reach poor more effectively
Ethiopia Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)
•  Part of broad food security program
•  Access to both safety nets and ag. support more beneficial
than stand alone programs (Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009)


3. Invest in climate-smart technologies
and policies
§  Promote innovative GHG emission reduction
measurement tools to
•  Measure, track, and map e.g. ArcGIS for carbon sequestration
maps

§  Exploit GHG reduction potential of agriculture
•  Adaptation/mitigation/productivity “triple wins”

§  Promote low carbon policy and market incentives
•  E.g. Brazil’s Low Carbon Agriculture Program
•  Integrate smallholders into carbon trading markets

§  Plan for and prioritize low carbon agriculture options
•  Involve all stakeholders in planning, priority-setting, and decision-
making processes

Click to edit Master title style reduce
4. Improve global coordination to
food price volatility
§  Create global and regional grain reserves
•  Located in poor food importing countries e.g. Horn of Africa

§  Support transparent and free global trade
•  Eliminate harmful trade restrictions and prevent new ones

§  Minimize food-fuel competition
•  Halt grain-based biofuel production

§  Monitor global food prices and speculation
•  G-20’s information system (AMIS) / IFPRI’s Excessive
Food Price Variability Early Warning System


5. Support country-led processes

§  Policies should come from developing countries to
maximize local impact of global agenda

§  Improve evidence on what policies have and have
not worked
•  Small-scale, local experimentation followed by gradual
implementation, e.g. China and Vietnam
•  Impartial monitoring of experiments

Country-owned policies should be continually tried,
evaluated, adjusted, and tried again before being scaled up


Europe has aMaster title style
Click to edit key role to play

§  Increase development assistance to agriculture

§  Expand investment in agricultural R&D and support
technology transfer

§  Reform domestic agricultural policies and promote
open trade

§  Promote South-South and North-South learning

§  Build national capacities


Increase assistance totitle style
Click to edit Master agriculture
(10% of total ODA by 2015)
ODA from EU institutions, Amount and share of agriculture ODA from
net disbursements DAC EU members

Agriculture ODA
Share of Agriculture in Total ODA (right)
20 19 19
2.5 5
18 4.5
17
4.3 4.0
15 2.0 4
15 3.6
3.1
12

US$ billions
US$ billions

Percent
10 1.5 3
2.7
10 9 2.3

1.0 2

5
0.5 1

0 0.0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Data from OECD 2011
Shenggen Fan, April 2013 Note: Agriculture refers to Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing

Irelandto edit Master title style
Click is a global leader in advancing
Irish Aid: Bilateral ODA by sector, 2011

3%
1%
2% 8%
16%
5%

10% 20%
6%

9% 17%
2%


Expand investment in agricultural R&D
and support technology transfer
Invest in technologies for
§  Crop and livestock breeding

§  Water and energy saving

§  Low carbon agriculture

§  Food safety
+
§  2nd generation biofuels (non-food feedstock)


Asia
Technology transfer for food security
§  Part of EU Food Security Thematic Programme

§  Transfer of appropriate and effective technology to
Asia’s poorest small farmers

§  2 pronged approach
•  Raise agricultural productivity in sustainable manner
and promote effective market linkages
•  Encourage South-South dialogue and intra-regional
learning


Reform domestic agricultural policies and
promote open trade
§  Revisit farm policies and cut subsidies

§  Promote non-distorting trade policies and engage in
WTO trade negotiations

§  Reduce or eliminate grain-based biofuels
Composition of EU agricultural budget,
Open trade has mutual benefits, annual expenditures, 1990-2010
completion of Doha Round =
§  Annual trade gains
•  $29bn - Developed countries
•  $9bn - Developing countries
§  Global income gains
•  $70bn
Source: Fan 2011

Promote South-South and North-South
learning
§  Exploit large knowledge base
•  E.g. Knowledge-sharing processes between EU and developing
countries

§  Engage in broader partnerships
•  E.g. Multi-disciplinary and multi-stakeholder research partnerships

§  Promote successful partnerships
•  E.g. National as well as global research institutions, esp. CGIAR

§  Develop innovative partnerships
•  E.g. Agriculture Pull Mechanism Initiative (AGPM)

§  Facilitate South-South knowledge exchange
•  E.g. Programme for South-South Cooperation - Benin, Bhutan, and
Costa Rica

Build national capacities style
Click to edit Master title

Support for CAADP §  Promote access to and use of
state-of-the art modeling tools
§  Provide analysis, data, and tools

§  Improve awareness of agriculture’s role §  Facilitate access to data, improve
data quality, bridge data gaps
§  Fill knowledge gaps; promote dialogue
§  Support collaboration among
§  Facilitate benchmarking and review scientists and build dynamic
processes research community

Agricultural education and training
§  Improve education and research capabilities

§  Provide integrated training (Masters, PhD,
international academic exchange etc.)

Towards edit Master title style
Click to a post-2015 agenda
§  Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) Movement

§  Rio+20 “The Future We Want”

§  UN Secretary General’s Zero Hunger Challenge

§  Consultations on Hunger, Food Security and
Nutrition in Post-2015 Development Agenda

§  Etc.

Vision:
End hunger sustainably by 2025

It is time to Walk the Talk!


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