Impact of Trade Policy to Stabilize Domestic Prices on International Food Price Volatility
1. Impact of trade policy to stabilize domestic prices on international food price volatility Kym Anderson and Signe Nelgen (drawing on collaborations also with Will Martin) University of Adelaide [email_address] IFPRI Board of Trustees Policy Seminar, Washington DC, 5 December 2011
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5. Qua n tity of international trade Price ES 1 ES 0 ED 0 Q 0 Q 1 E 1 E 0 P 1 P 0
6. Quantity of international trade Price ES 2 ES 1 ES 0 ED 0 Q 0 Q 1 Q 2 E 1 E 2 E 0 P 1 P x P 0 P 2
7. Quantity of international trade Price ES 1 ES 0 ED 0 ED’ Q 0 Q’ Q 1 E’ E 1 E 0 M N P’ P 1 P 0
8. Quantity of international trade Price ES 2 ES 1 ES 0 ED 0 ED ’ Q 0 Q’ Q 1 Q 2 E 3 E’ E 1 E 2 E 0 M N P 3 P’ P 1 P x P 0 P 2
19. Decomposing policy contributions, 2005-08 TOTAL PROPORT’L CONTRIB’N High-income countries Developing countries Importing countries Exporting countries Rice 0.31 0.01 0.30 0.13 0.18 Wheat 0.13 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.07 Maize 0.18 0.08 0.10 0.07 0.11 Soybean 0.45 0.17 0.28 0.21 0.24 Sugar 0.56 0.11 0.45 0.30 0.26
20. How much would int’l prices have risen in 2005-08 without altered trade restrictions (%)? International price rise Domestic price rises including contribution of changed trade restrictions net of contribution of changed trade restrictions All countries Developing countries High-income countries Rice 127 78 65 64 66 Wheat 100 84 98 60 113 Maize 126 112 106 78 129