Priorities for Public Sector Research on Food Security and Climate Change, Review 1 by Dale Andrew, OECD on April 12, 2013 at the Food Security Futures Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

1. HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE
ALTER AGRICULTURAL
STRATEGIES TO SUPPORT
FOOD SECURITY?
SOME COMMENTS
Food Security Futures: Research Priorities for the 21st Century
Dublin, 11-12 April 2013
Dale Andrew
Head, Environment Division
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate

2. Overview of comments
• Report’s announced priorities
– Increasing resilience
– Making transition happen
– Developing Indicators
– Policy coherence
• Other recent policy documents :
– Foresight (UK); CCAFS; G20 (Mexican Presidency); UNEP ;
OECD, etc.
• What is missing?
– Water
– Biofuels
– Collaboration
– Relative roles of mitigation and adaptation
– Time and Setting priorities
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 2

3. Increasing Resilience
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 3

4. Risk Management: results of an OECD
modelling exercise
• The impact of climate change on the variability of yields is
not only subject to location differences, but also to strong
uncertainties.
• Public support to measures that protect farmers
from production risks affect their risk management and
adaptation strategies, most likely by crowding out.
• The most reliable scenarios show that climate change only
marginally changes the risk environment of farming in
Canada & Australia and only marginally increases the
demand for insurance.
• These scenarios of extreme events and misaligned
perceptions of risk lead to low adaptation and are very
expensive if the policy mix is wrong.
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 4

5. Risk Management has prominent
visibility, and…
• The report’s treatment of risk management issues, while
rigorous & appropriate, could go even further:
– more on the issue of uncertainty. Climate change is more likely to
increase uncertainty than risk
– Strengthening the link between risk management and institutional
issues is important
– To reduce uncertainty improve the governance of science and the
links between scientists and stakeholders who are users of scientific
knowledge, including farmers and policy makers.
– Crucial role of information: climate change is an information barrier
– Without good symmetric information risk management markets
cannot develop
– misalignment of risk perceptions due to bad information can induce
unsustainable decisions on the farm, or regrettable policy
decisions, in areas such as support to insurance.
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 5

6. Making transitions happen
• Diversification
– “…little systematic information exists to guide
farmers … on how to best manage
diversification…”
• What about the new “CSA Source Book?
• No-regrets technologies
• Collective action
• Information systems
• Land tenure (adding water rights)
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 6

7. Tenure effects on land productivity and
investment
Adjudicated under the Land Unadjudicated land: no firm
Adjudication Act CAP 284 legal title
1968, intensive smallholder
cultivation with clear freehold title
Norton-Griffith, in preparation

8. Monitoring and evaluation: developing
indicators … for what?
Needs more focus
• MRV – measuring GHG emissions cf. FAO
• Indicators on Process; Outcome ; Impact
• For priority setting?
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 8

9. Green Growth
Knowledge Platform:
GGGI, OECD, UNEP, W
orld Bank
Moving towards a
common approach
on GG Indicators
OECD Trade and Agriculture 9
Directorate

10. Policy Coherence
Best way to achieve?
Productivity/Income
Sequestration/Mitigation
Reduced emissions
Resilience/Adaptation
Agriculture
Forestry
Environment
CSA
REDD+
PES

11. unsustainable agriculture
climate smart agriculture

12. Other recent policy documents:
Foresight (UK)
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 12

13. Comparing recent policy documents:
UNEP: Avoiding Future Famines
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 13

14. Comparing recent policy documents
CCAFS Achieving food security in the face of climate change
Key Recommendations:
1. Integrate food security and sustainable agriculture into
global and national policies
2. Significantly raise the level of global investment in
sustainable agriculture and food systems in the next decade
3. Sustainably intensify agricultural production while
reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other negative
environmental impacts of agriculture
4. Target populations and sectors that are most vulnerable to
climate change and food insecurity
5. Reshape food access and consumption patterns to
ensure basic nutritional needs are met and to foster healthy
and sustainable eating habits worldwide
6. Reduce loss and waste in food systems, particularly from
infrastructure, farming practices, processing, distribution and
household habits
7. Create comprehensive, shared, integrated information
systems that encompass human and ecological dimensions
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 14

15. Comparing recent policy documents
G-20: IO report to Mexican Presidency 2012
OECD Trade and Agriculture 15
Directorate

16. Recent policy documents (OECD)
Global Food Security Challenges(2013)
The challenge of ensuring global food security is
first and foremost one of raising the incomes
of the poor so that they can afford the food
they need to lead healthy lives. Agricultural
development has a key role to play in raising
incomes, but it is essential to foster wider
economic growth that creates diversified
rural economies with jobs both within and
outside agriculture.
Large increases in investment will be needed to
raise incomes and increase the supply of food
sustainably. Most of the investment will need
to come from the private sector, but
governments have an important role in
establishing the framework conditions. Public
investment supported by development aid can
complement and attract private investment
OECD Trade and Agriculture 16
Directorate

17. Recent policy documents (OECD)
Global Food Security Challenges(2013)
Priority areas for public spending include
education and skills, research and
innovation, and rural
infrastructure, together with backstopping to
ensure improved nutrition.
Trade will have an increasingly important role
to play in ensuring global food security.
Countries need to avoid policies that distort
world markets and make them a less reliable
source of food supplies.
Supply-side investments may be needed to
maximise the benefits of trade reform, along
with complementary measures to minimise
the costs. The latter include social
protection, adjustment assistance and the
development of risk management tools.
OECD Trade and Agriculture 17
Directorate

18. What’s missing: water
• Report notes: “In situations with
decreasing rainfall and increasing
rainfall variability, there are many ways
of improving water harvesting and
retention (through the use of
pools, dams, pits, retaining
ridges, increasing soil organic matter to
heighten the water retention capacity of
soils)) and water-use efficiency
(irrigation systems)”
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 18

19. Figure 1. The agricultural production cycle, as impacted by climate change
Source: FAO (2010), "Climate change, water and food security", FAO water reports n°36.
OECD Trade and Agriculture 19
Directorate

20. What’s missing: water
Some analysts consider the rising demand for
water from non-ag sectors will dwarf the
probable effects of climate change. More recent
literature is less sanguine, projecting
competition for surface and groundwater from
agriculture leading to price increases and
impacts on food security.
Do the authors belong to the first
school, as implied by the relative negligence of
water issues in their list of research priorities?
OECD Trade and Agriculture 20
Directorate

21. WATER: Global water demand to increase by 55% by 2050
Global water demand: Baseline scenario
Km3
6 000
5 000 electricity Rapidly growing
4 000
manufacturing water demand from
3 000
cities, industry and
livestock energy suppliers will
2 000
domestic
challenge water for
1 000
irrigation to 2050.
irrigation
0
2000 2050
World
Source: (OECD, 2012), OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from
21
IMAGE

22. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water
Global water demand: Baseline scenario, 2000 and 2050
6 000
irrigation domestic livestock manufacturing electricity
Km3
5 000 +140%
4 000
+400%
3 000
+130%
2 000
1 000
0
2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050
22
OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output : IMAGE

23. Shiklomanov, 2003
Global irrigation water withdrawals 2030WRG, 2009
5000
FAO-Bruinsma, 2009
IIASA-Fischer, 2008, without CC
4500
IIASA-Fischer, 2008, with CC
4000 Alcamo, 2007, A2
PBL-OCDE, 2011 BAU
3500
Shen, 2008, A1b
Shen, 2008, A2
3000
Shen, 2008, B1
km3/year
2500 Shen, 2008, B2
IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Rainf.Opt
2000 IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Rainf.Pess
IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Irrigated Area
1500
IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Irrigated Yields
1000 IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, Trade
IWMI-CAWMA, 2007, ComprAssessment
500 IFPRI-Rosegrant, 2002, Irr.Consumption,
BAU
IFPRI-Rosegrant, 2002, Irr.Consumption,
0 Crisis
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 IFPRI-Rosegrant, 2002, Irr.Consumption,
Sust.

24. OECD Trade and Agriculture 24
Directorate

25. What’s missing: biofuels
• More research is needed on:
– Historical variability surrounding biofuel-crop yields, and likely
future variability, especially with climate change
– Status of arable lands registered as degraded or
abandoned, and how they are actually being used
– Relative costs of producing crops like Jatropha curcas (physic
nut) on different categories of marginal or degraded land
– Likely areas in sub-Saharan Africa at risk for development of
crops for biofuels under different assumptions of cost and legal
access
– Likely demand on arable lands of policies that encourage
biofuels made from non-edible biomass
– Feasibility of the ideas propounded by enthusiasts of bio-char
OECD Trade and Agriculture 25
Directorate

26. Annual crop-yield improvements needed 2006-20 to provide food, with
and without biofuels (E4Tech Scenario: 10.3% of world transport fuel)
6.0% assuming no land-use change compared with 1996-2006 trend & FAPRI projections
5.0%
2.6%
Compound Annual Growth Rate in Yield
4.0%
3.0%
0.9% 3.8%
2.0% 0.8%
3.1%
1.0% 2.0%
1.6% 1.8%
1.2% 1.2% 1.4%
0.6% 0.8%
0.5%
0.0% -0.1%
Cereals Cereals Cereals Oilseeds Oilseeds Oilseeds Sugar Sugar Sugar Palm Palm Palm
Crops Crops Crops
-1.0%
1996-2006 Trend Non Biofuel food demand
Biofuel, adjusted for by products FAPRI 2006-2019 Projection

27. What’s missing: collaboration
• Where is the World Bank?
– Despite having adopted whole heartedly “climate
smart agriculture” and a key financier of the CG
system, the WB is absent in the report.
– Reference is made to WB insofar as “FAO and the
World Bank developed a method for screening
agricultural investment plans to identify climate
smart agricultural investments”
• And other MDBs?
OECD Trade and Agriculture 27
Directorate

28. What’s missing: relative role of
adaptation and mitigation
OECD Trade and Agriculture 28
Directorate

29. Agriculture-related emissions
could be 15 gigatons in 2050
Sources: Food
increases from
Bruinsma 2009
(FAO);
Various sources
other

30. What’s missing: relative roles of
adaptation and mitigation
1. Assessing vulnerability to climate
change today
2. Assessing vulnerability tomorrow
Plausible scenarios of the future
3. Adaptation
Options to address food security
challenges from climate change
4. Mitigation
Options to reduce GHG concentrations
while supporting sustainable food
security and poverty reduction
5. The need for coordination and
coherence of food security and climate
change policies and actions
OECD Trade and Agriculture 30
Directorate

31. HLPE Report: Mitigation options that
also enhance food security
• Direct
– Farming practices that increase soil
carbon in degraded soils
– Fertilizer management that reduces
fertilizer application by increasing plant
uptake
– Livestock and manure management that
reduce GHG emissions and lower farmer
cost per unit of output
– Water management that saves
water and reduces GHG emissions
– Crop residue management that increases
soil health and reduces GHG emissions
• Indirect
– Manage food consumption for lower
emissions and more efficient food
systems
– Reduce emissions from land use change
for agriculture by increasing agricultural
productivity

32. CSA approaches must be context sensitive…
Context A Context B Most vulnerable
and food
insecure areas
Productivity
Adaptation
Mitigation
Productivity
Adaptation
Adaptation
Productivity
Mitigation
Mitigation

33. What’s missing: Time
• Report’s opening sentence:
– “In this paper we focus on the issue of how
climate change affects the way the
agricultural systems and the people that
manage and govern the need to change in the
next 20 years to order to achieve food
security, and how FAO and CGIAR can
support that change.”
OECD Trade and Agriculture 34
Directorate

34. Transformation in agriculture
Andy Jarvis, CCAFS, Accelerating Adaptation

35. Incremental, Systems & Transformational
adaptation
• Incremental adaptation: Farmers are adapting all
the time; is it at a rate that is fast enough? Are the
incremental adjustments in the right direction to
enable the systematic adjustment
• Systems adaptation supports incremental
adaptation and also ensures that the direction farmers
take is along the correct trajectory; involves design of
suitable policies; Incentivizing the changes that are
needed; and overcoming technological constraints
• Transformational adaptation : Different
livelihood systems for rural communities; different
structural make-up of the agricultural and food
system at national and regional scales; Crucial to plan
for transformational change, and not wait until it
happens
– Andy Jarvis, CCAFS, Accelerating Adaptation, Hanoi Sep 2012

36. What’s missing: methodologies for
setting priorities
From listing adaptation options, need for
investment portfolios, with robust numbers
on costs, benefits and constraints
• MAC curves for agriculture?
• Counting “wins””?
– win-win-(win (-win))s vs. trade-offs
• Prioritise by indicators of vulnerability?
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 37

37. Malawi: Building the evidence base on marginal
costs of agricultural-based mitigation
1. agronomy_dry
150
100 2. Integrated nutrient
management _dry
50
3. Tillage/residue
0 mgmt_dry
$/t CO2e
4. Integrated nutrient
-50
management_moist
-100 5. Tillage/residue
mgmt_moist
-150
6. agronomy_moist
-200
-250 7. agroforestry_dry
-300 8. agroforestry_moist
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
t CO2e abated/year 9. water mgmt_dry
10. water mgmt_moist
9

38. Winning, Losing or Standing Still?
Tony Simons, ICRAF
Climate Smart Agriculture seeks to:
- Increase productivity/income (P&I)
- Increase Carbon sequestration (Seq)
- Reduce agriculture GHG emissions (REm)
- Strengthen farmers’ resilience/adaptation (Adp)
win-win-win-win?
or tradeoffs?

39. Win Lose
Four Wins P&I/Seq/REm/Adp
√√√
Three Wins P&I/Seq/REm Adp
P&I/Seq/Adp REm Zero grazing
√ P&I/REm/Adp Seq of ruminants
Seq/REm/Adp P&I
Fertilised
maize on
Two wins P&I/Seq REm/Adp poor soils
P&I/REm Seq/Adp
??? P&I/Adp Seq/REm
Seq/REm P&I/Adp
Seq/Adp P&I/REm
REm/Adp P&I/Seq IAASTD
One win P&I Seq/REm/Adp
X Seq P&I/REm/Adp
REm P&I/Seq/Adp
Rubber
Adp P&I/Seq/REm
XXX
No wins
plantation
P&I/Seq/REm/Adp Amazon
in

40. Vulnerability ?
• CCAFS
-Target populations and sectors that are
most vulnerable to climate change and
food insecurity
HLPE:
1. Assessing vulnerability to climate change
today
2. Assessing vulnerability tomorrow
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 41

41. Thank You
For more information:
dale.andrew@OECD.org
Visit our website: www.oecd.org/agriculture
click on “Sustainable Agriculture”