Kepner Tregoe (KT) - How did the chicken

Copyright © 2013 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1
Clear thinking for a complex world
Survive and Thrive
when faced with major incidents
The planning that allows you to keep calm, juggle resources,
and flourish in the face of major incidents

“System 1” versus “System 2” thinking
• Two fundamental thinking modes of the brain
• System 1: the “automatic system” informed by knowledge
and experience
• System 2: the “effortful system” used to consciously think
through an issue in a systematic way
• Based on the research and book “Thinking, Fast and Slow”
by the Nobel-prize winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman
• Which Thinking System are you using?

2 x 2 =
What’s the answer?

56 x 56 =
What’s the answer?

Why thinking matters…
• High-level mismanagement led to Lehman’s $600 million demise. The
financial crisis triggered by this collapse is estimated to have caused
indirectly the loss of 2 million jobs.
• Hoover in the UK offered two free flights for every purchase over $150.
The flights cost more than the products, losing the company a cool $74
million.
• IBM hired Microsoft to develop an operating system for its
new PC – but let them keep the rights to the software.
• …and so many more…

What we are good at…
• Intuition = Recognition
• Extremely important in the first few moments
of an Incident or Major Incident.

Typical “Human Errors” in thinking
1. Halo Effect: If I like some of the parts, I will like the whole (Exam
Marking)
2. What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI) Effect: What you see is all
there is (Gorilla video)
3. Framing Effect: The same information can be viewed favorably or
unfavorably depending on how it is stated (10% Fat, 90% fat free)
4. Anchoring Effect: We can be strongly influenced by numbers and
facts not really relevant to the issue. (Maximum of 6 items may be
purchased by one customer)
5. Availability Bias: We don’t access all of our memories, we
recall the impactful, unusual occurrences
(Tornado’s versus asthma)

When to use different approaches
Criteria when System 1 is safe to use when:
• The issue is simple
• I have seen an issue like this many times before
• The cost of being wrong is low and the consequences are
acceptable
Criteria when System 2 is safe to use when:
• The issue is complex
• I have not seen an issue like this before
• The cost of being wrong is high and the consequences
unacceptable
• Time for repeated System 1 thinking is over
• Number of trial fixes, people involved or elapsed time

Colleagues
need:
• Visibility of actions taken,
and to come
• Shared data
• A clear path to
resolution
Keeping everyone involved
Use a shared control board
Customers and
Management need:
• Meaningful
progress reports
• Reassurance
• No Surprises

Why did the chicken cross the road?
• Farmer – running a dairy, arable and grain distribution business – very risk averse
and wanting to minimize the kind of publicity which would distract from the
business
• Farmer’s wife – noticed something strange
• Farmer’s son – drinking, shooting, fishing, soon to be a lorry driver
• Articulated lorry driver – drives the daily run with the big lorry to get the bulk grain
from afar
• Local lorry driver – drives 7.5 ton lorries in the local area
• Herdsman – dairy farmer
• Grain Operations Manager – manages the grain business
• Journalist – looking for a story… this might just become viral

Exercise
A major incident has just started (you will be blamed....)
Under your seat you may have found a coloured card.
Each of you has different information about the incident.
Others have different coloured cards
a) Find the people whose cards have different colours
b) Take control, and use the available information to
decide what to do
You have 20 minutes (exactly 1200 seconds, not 1201...)

Grain
Storage
Dairy
Farmhouse
Usual route
of chicken

Old trailer
New trailer

Where else can Clear Thinking assist in business?
• When are you actually applying your best thinking either
individually or in teams?
– Leverage systematic process for problem solving, decision
making, project planning and risk analysis
– Different functions, business units and people speaking
different languages all follow the same process
– From the C-Suite to the shop floor
• The outcome?
– Fix problems faster
– Make smarter decisions
– Manage risk more effectively

• Open an application share at the very beginning
• Use simple templates to display information for all
• Make rules clear to all
• Run a separated management bridge
• Share a dashboard
to take control
Call to arms...

What questions
do you have?

N
23
Not a new
process, just
a better way
of doing
the existing
processes
better.

Kepner Tregoe (KT) - How did the chicken

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