Presented on April 17th for InnoTech Dallas.

1. 4/1/2013
The Future of Advance Analytics
David Smith
Chief Executive Officer, HBMG Inc.
dsmith@hbmginc.com
Room:InnoTech Main Stage Theater, inside Hall B
g ,
Volume, variety, and velocity are changing us in our companies, government
agencies and at home. How do BI, Social/Business media, mobility, Devices and Big
Data drive business decisions? The success is driven by the use of advance
analytics. Business analytics facilitates realization of business objectives through
reporting of data to analyze trends, creating predictive models for forecasting and
optimizing business processes for enhanced performance. This is important not only
in business but the military and government as well.
This presentation will look at the current and future trends in analytics and how they
will impact each of us. Special emphasis will be given to the new trend of embedded
analytics. As the world moves faster toward real-time the analytics must move as
well. Attendees will leave the session with a understanding of the future directions of
advance analytics.
The Future of
Advance
Analytics
David Smith
CEO HBMGInc.
dsmith@HBMGINC.com
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2. 4/1/2013
Definition for Advanced Analytics
Analysis is the examination process itself where
analytics is the supporting technology and
associated tools. BI is quite synonymous to
analytics in IT context. Advanced Analytics,
Business Analytics, Data Analytics, Analytics
Software, Analytics Technology are almost
always marketing pleonasms (redundant
always marketing pleonasms (redundant
expressions) and can be safely substituted by
just ‘analytics’
Definition for Advanced Analytics
Analysis is a pretty old, well understood term
and essentially means “breaking down” or
d ti ll “b ki d ”
“decomposition”. More accurately –the
process of decomposing complex entity into
simpler components for easier
comprehension.
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3. 4/1/2013
Definition for Advanced Analytics
Advanced analytics provides algorithms for complex analysis of
either structured or unstructured data. It includes
sophisticated statistical models, machine learning, neural
networks, text analytics, and other advanced data mining
techniques. Among its many use cases, it can be deployed to
find patterns in data, prediction, optimization, forecasting,
and for complex event processing/analysis. Examples include
predicting churn, identifying fraud, market basket analysis, or
understanding website behavior. Advanced analytics does not
understanding website behavior Advanced analytics does not
include database query and reporting and OLAP cubes.
America gets more than half its economic
growth from industries that barely existed
a decade ago—such is the power of
innovation, especially in the information
and biotechnology industries.
—The Economist
Copyright, 2011 © HBMG, Inc.
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4. 4/1/2013
Business Problem
More than half of business and IT executives, 56
percent, report they feel overwhelmed by the
amount of data their company manages.
Many report they are often delayed in making
important decisions as a result of too much
information. Surprisingly, 62 percent of C‐level
respondents whose time is considered the
respondents – whose time is considered the
most valuable in most organizations – report
being frequently interrupted by irrelevant
incoming data.
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5. 4/1/2013
Delivering business value is hard…
• “Of the work executed: “Many (possibly
most) organizations lose as much as 45%
of their total revenues due to costs
associated with low quality
associated with low quality”
– Six Sigma
• “Some 75 percent of most large‐scale J2EE
projects fail by missing both time and
budget projections …”
– Mark Driver, Gartner
• “64% of features actually delivered are
64% of features actually delivered are
either rarely or never used”
– Jim Johnson, Standish Group
Why?
• Technological innovation is now the most
important driver for competitive success
– Many firms earn over one‐third of sales on
products developed within last five years
• Product life cycles ( time between product
introduction to market and its withdrawal)
– Software 4‐12 months
– Computer hardware 12‐24 months
– Large home appliances 18‐36 months
Copyright, 2011 © HBMG, Inc.
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6. 4/1/2013
Business, Knowledge, and Innovation Landscape
• Typically 80% of the key knowledge (and value) is
held by 20% of the people we need to get it to the
held by 20% of the people – we need to get it to the
right people
• Only 20% of the knowledge in an organization is
typically used (the rest being undiscovered or under‐
utilized)
• 80 90% f th
80‐90% of the products and services today will be
d t d i t d ill b
obsolete in 10 years – companies need to innovate &
invent faster
Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.
Tapping into the Data
• Data Storage
• Reporting Utilized data
• Analytics
• Advanced
Analytics
– Computing with Unutilized data
big datasets is a
g that can be
available t
il bl to
fundamentally business
different challenge
than doing “big
compute” over a
small dataset
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7. 4/1/2013
Innovation:
‘Innovation =
‘The real voyage of discovery consists creative idea and
not in seeing new lands, implementation’
but in seeing with new eyes’ (Source: Glossary of Electronics)
(Source: Marcel Proust)
‘Innovation: change that
creates a new dimension of
‘A new method, idea,
performance’
product, etc’ (Source: Peter Drucker)
(Source: Oxford English
Dictionary)
‘Value innovators look for
‘An innovation to be effective what customers value in
has to be simple and it has common’
to be focused’ (Source: Kim & Mauborgne)
(Source: Peter Drucker)
‘Firms need to manage steady state ‘Innovation is the process by which new products or
innovation and radical change because methods of production are introduced, including all
continuous improvement is no longer the steps from the inventor’s idea to bringing the
enough’ new item to market’
(Source: Tom Peters) (Source: Baumol, Economics: Principles & Policy)
“Big Data” and it’s close relatives “Cloud
Computing”, “Social Media” and
"Mobile"
are the new frontier of innovation.
Driven by Advance Analytics
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8. 4/1/2013
Big Data and It’s Brothers
Volume
Variety
Velocity
………..
Volume
Volume is increasing at incredible rates.
With more people using high speed
h l h h d
internet connections than ever, plus
these people becoming more proficient
at creating content and just more
people in general contributing
information are combined forces that
information are combined forces that
are causing this tremendous increase in
Volume.
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9. 4/1/2013
Variety
Next in breaking down Big Data into easily digestible bite‐
size chunks is the concept of Variety. Take your personal
experience and think about how much information you
experience and think about how much information you
create and contribute in your daily routine. Your
voicemails, your e‐mails, your file shares, your TV
viewing habits, your Facebook updates, your LinkedIn
activity, your credit card transactions, etc.
Whether you consciously think about it or not the Variety
Whether you consciously think about it or not the Variety
of information you personally create on a daily basis
which is being collected and analyzed is simply
overwhelming.
Velocity
The speed at which data enters organizations
these days is absolutely amazing. With mega
internet bandwidth nearly being common
place anymore in conjunction with the
proliferation of mobile devices, this simply
gives people more opportunity than ever to
contribute content to storage systems.
contribute content to storage systems.
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10. 4/1/2013
VELOCITY
Worldwide digital content will
double in 18 months, and
every 18 months thereafter.
IDC
Mobile
Inventory
CRM Data
GPS
Emails
Planning Demand
Tweets
Instant Messages
Opportunities
Speed
VOLUME Customer
Velocity
VARIETY
In 2005, humankind Things
80% of enterprise data
created 150 exabytes of
Service Calls
will be unstructured,
information. In 2011, Sales Orders
spanning traditional and
over 1,200 exabytes was Transactions
non traditional sources.
created. Gartner
The Economist
But I Believe there are Four V4
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11. 4/1/2013
• Volume：Gigabyte(109), Terabyte(1012),
Petabyte(1015), Exabyte(1018), Zettabytes(1021)
• Variety: Structured,semi‐structured, unstructured;
Text, image, audio, video, record
• Velocity(Dynamic, sometimes time‐varying)
• BUT needs to add and create Value!
BUT needs to add and create Value!
Trends driving data management
– The volume of data has never been greater and is
growing exponentially
– The value of data has never been better understood
The value of data has never been better understood
– The capabilities for processing data have never been
better
• Higher processor performance and density are enabling
advanced processing on commodity hardware
• Software enhancements designed to make best use of
processing performance and scalable architecture
i f d l bl hit t
• Advanced and in‐database analytics bring processing to the 22
data, reducing latency and improving efficiency
– The data deluge problem is also a big data opportunity
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12. 4/1/2013
From http://geekandpoke.typepad.com Copyright, 2011 © HBMG, Inc.
Next Generation
• Cloud Computing (e.g. “Blue Cloud”)
– The “network becomes the computer”
– D bd i
Dumb devices ??????
??????
• Pervasive Computing
– Monitoring and tracking almost anything
– The Internet is Free
• Continuous Services
• The Cloud + Pervasive Computing
– Smart buildings
Smart buildings
– Sensor nets
– “Invisible computing” or “ubiquitous computing”
– Semantic Interoperability
– Ad hoc networking
Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.
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13. 4/1/2013
Advance Analytics as a strategic asset
“The future belongs to companies and people
that turn data into products.”
Mike Loukides, O’Reilly
25
Advance Analytics as a strategic asset
“85% of eBay’s analytic workload is new and
unknown. We are architected for the unknown.”
Oliver Ratzesberger, eBay
• Data exploration – data as the new oil
 The exploration for data, rather than the exploration of data
 Uncovering pockets of untapped data
 Processing the whole data set, without sampling
 eBay’s Singularity platform combines transactional data with 26
behavioral data, enabled identification of top sellers, driving
increased revenue from those sellers
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14. 4/1/2013
Advance Analytics as a strategic asset
“Groupon will not be the first or last organization to
compete and win on the power of data. It s happening
compete and win on the power of data It’s happening
everywhere.”
Reid Hoffman and James Slavet
Greylock Partners
Data harnessing – data as renewable energy
 H
Harnessing naturally occurring data streams
i t ll i d t t
 Like harnessing raw energy to be converted into usable energy 27
 Conversion of raw data into usable data
Facebook
28
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15. 4/1/2013
BIG DATA
REAL TIME
PREDICTIVE
ENABLED BY
ADVANCE ANALYTICS
As the world gets smarter, infrastructure
demands will grow
Smart Intelligent oil Smart Smart
Smart
traffic field food energy Smart retail
healthcare
systems technologies systems grids
Smart
Smart water Smart Smart Smart Smart
supply
management countries weather regions cities
chains
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16. 4/1/2013
Data
Desktop
Knowledge
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17. 4/1/2013
Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.
The Nature of Communications
Has Been Changing...
People to People to Things to
People Things Things
TOL
L
15.62 Gallons
27.33 Dollars
Thank You!
Copyright, 2011 © HBMG, Inc.
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18. 4/1/2013
Mainframe/Terminal Ubiquitous
COSTS Client Server
Mini/Terminal
USAGE Server/PC
Mainframe ASP/Appliance
Distribution of Computing Power Virtualization Ubiquitous
Improved Access/Convenience
Improved Ease of Use
Large Organizations + Small Organizations + Departments + BYOD Entrepreneurs
Middle Class (PCs) + General Population
Satellite Radio
Wireless TV Receivers Wireless Cameras
Monitors
PDAs
Digital Cameras
Digital Video Adapters
Digital Music
Adapters
Smart Phones
Game Consoles
Desktop PCs
Smart Displays Networked Storage
Centers
Laptop PCs
Networked DVD Player Wireless Gaming Mobile Gaming
Adapters Devices
“Fourth Generation”
Movies-on-Demand Set-top Boxes
Receivers
802.11 Speakers
Digital Media Receivers Personal Video MP3 Players
Recorders Copyright, 2012 © HBMG, Inc.
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19. 4/1/2013
The Global Grid
Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.
To Every Sensor is a Server
Phone -PDA
Smart Dust
Processor
Data Storage
Microstorage
Communications
(Areal density 100x’s CD)
Rich variety of
sensors
Microphone
Embedded
Biofluidics Chip
Robot
Copyright, 2011 © HBMG, Inc.
19

20. 4/1/2013
Growth at the Edge of the Network
4,000
3,500
• Mobile
• Device to Device
3,000
Petabytes/Day Global
• Sensors
• Entertainment
2,500 • Smart Home
• Distributed Industrial
2,000 • Autos/Trucks
• Smart Toys
1,500
Converged
1,000 Content
500 Traditional
Computation
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.
DOD Example
DOD Example
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21. 4/1/2013
Operation Trends
 Counterinsurgency operations are complex  increased emphasis
on:
 Information and analysis at lowest levels
 Shortened decision making time-scales
g
 Wider array of information sources
 Continued growth in volume of data, especially informal information Source: TTI Vanguard Conference - Psydex
with limited structure  must transform disparate info to knowledge
 Processing power and storage capacity increasing faster than
communications capacity  must smartly position data and services
within networks
 Increased use of commercial cellular networks  hybrid networks
that exploit and interoperate with commercial wireless comms is key
 Enhancing coalition decision making depends on secure
communications and information networks  must address end-to-
end problem of data-to-decision (coalition)
Info in War Revolution
Technology—Information—Organization
“Recce” P-38 “Recce” P-38
RF-101 Voodoo
I ?
I
ISR
S R S R 0-2 Bird Dog
B-17 Spotter
Corps
B-52 0-2 Bird Dog
<10 Minutes
14 Days
75 Days
Number f Weapons
N b of W Number of Sensors
N b fS
Required to Target Required to Target
1943 2009
Evolution of Technology, Information, and Culture Enabled Move from
Segregation of Ops and Intel to Integration of Ops and Intel…
42
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22. 4/1/2013
21st Century Challenges:
Precision and Information Synergy
Strategic
Strategic Strategic
CYBE
CYBE
SPAC
SPAC
Strategic
AIR
National Operational Operational
Operational p
Operational
R
CE
CE
ER
ER
Tactical Tactical Tactical Tactical
Tactical
DESERT 1999 2001 2009 INFO AGE
STORM ALLIED ENDURING AF/PAK & Iraq WARFARE
1991 & Prior FORCE FREEDOM TODAY TOMORROW
Segregated Ops … I + S&R ISR GLOBAL
Intel & Ops + Intel INTEGRATED
ISR
OPS Kandahar
Runway
NTI Multi‐Domain
Real‐Time Fusion
INTEL Pod Recce Fusion
Dimensions of ISR…
“More of Everything”
More Collectors
Better Sensors
More Data
• More Storage
• More Comms Better Intel
• More Tools
• More Analysts
• More Linguists
…All on an Operationally Responsive Timeline
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23. 4/1/2013
Sensor Data Volume
How do we handle all this data?
“Rebalancing Collection & PED may be Necessary”
Persistent Surveillance Data Rates
23

24. 4/1/2013
General Norton A. Schwartz
Air Force’s chief of staff
“If automation can provide a cue for our people that
“If i id f l h
would make better use of their time, that would help us
significantly,” NY Times.
Lieutenant General David Deptula
Former Deputy Chief of Staff for ISR, Headquarters, US Air
p y f f ff f q
Force
“We’re going to find ourselves in the not too distant future
swimming in sensors and drowning in data”
Advance Analytics
• Advanced Analytics and Big Data are two of the
most active areas of innovation in the Tech
sector
• legacy infrastructures and government policies are
increasingly at odds with the realities of the analytic
landscape
• Certain forms of analysis is no longer possible within
an encrypted environment. Rules that require data
to be encrypted, both while in transit and at rest,
also introduce performance penalties that make it
difficult if not impossible to process large datasets in
an acceptable timeframe
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25. 4/1/2013
Today's Cycle
Where is Real Time?
Advance Analytics
• The time to use the output is increasingly getting
shorter – Real Time is becoming very common
• Li it d
Limited available human resources, and performance is
il bl h d f i
often unreliable due to human fatigue and distraction.
Therefore, automated real‐time sensor processing
techniques are required to reliably detect and
discriminate targets of interest
• Limited automated processing and tagging tools
• – Still NOT enough
25

26. 4/1/2013
Advance Analytics
• The time to use the output is increasingly getting shorter – Real
Time is becoming very common
• Limited available human resources, and performance is often
p
unreliable due to human fatigue and distraction. Therefore,
automated real‐time sensor processing techniques are required to
reliably detect and discriminate targets of interest – Still NOT
enough
• Need to move to the
sensor/collector
• Needs to be embedded in the
the sensor
Autonomous Systems
Agents dynamically adapt Agents coordinate
to and learn about and negotiate to achieve
their environment common goals
Social
Intelligent Adaptive Cooperative Personality Information
Agents Agents
Autonomous Mobile Interoperate
Agents are goal directed Agents interoperate
Agents move
and act on their with humans, other,
to where they
own performing legacy systems, and
are needed
tasks on your behalf information sources
HBMG Inc. Copyright 2012
26

27. 4/1/2013
Autonomic Networks
Self-configuring : Adapt Self-healing:
automatically to the Discover, diagnose,
dynamically changing and react to
environments of link and disruptions from
node failures. Self- Self-
Self- Self- catastrophes and
attacks.
Configuring Healing
Self-optimizing: Monitor Self- Self-
Self- Self- Self-protecting:
and tune resources Anticipate, detect,
automatically during an
Optimizing Protecting identify, and protect
attack to minimize its against attacks from
attack during and in the anywhere (safety )
(safety.)
aftermath.
HBMG Inc. Copyright 2012
Numbers
• How many data in the world?
– 800 Terabytes, 2000
– 160 Exabytes, 2006
– 500 Exabytes(Internet), 2009
– 2.7 Zettabytes, 2012
– 35 Zettabytes by 2020
• How many data generated ONE day?
– 7 TB, Twitter Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity
McKinsey Global Institute 2011
– 10 TB, Facebook
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28. 4/1/2013
1 million
illi
transactions during this presentation
If You Liked ____, You’ll Love ___ !
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29. 4/1/2013
1 billi
billion
clicks during this presentation
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30. 4/1/2013
Gartner Hype Cycle 2012
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31. 4/1/2013
2012 Business Intelligence, Analytics and Information
Management Survey from InformationWeek Reports
A few insights from the report:
•58% of those surveyed are “very interested” in advanced analytics
y y y
•Advanced analytics is the No. 1 leading-edge technology
•Cloud analytics systems are hot because they are easier on the
pocketbook; yet 63% of users have privacy concerns
•Data pros just can’t get good data – data quality still ranks as the top
barrier to adopting BI products throughout the company
•25% of those surveyed are mobilizing their data analytics with
dashboards and data visualizations
•40% of d t pros are struggling t stay above th bi d t wave
40% f data t li to t b the big data
Conclusion
 Data is one the major factors driving infrastructure computing
 The growing volume of data is a problem, but it is also an opportunity
 Don’t worry about ‘big data,’ worry about your data
y g , y y
 Take a Total Data approach to data management
• Think pragmatically about data storage and analysis
• Attempt to capture and analyze any data that might be relevant,
regardless of where it resides
 ‘Datastructure’ will become increasingly valuable, not only as a source of
data but also as a source of intelligence
 The rise of the ‘data cloud’ and the PaaS data layer will encourage a
more flexible approach to data management and analytics
 The companies that win will be those that think about data as a strategic
asset and implement the technology to monetize it
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32. 4/1/2013
Conclusion
 The World is moving to Real Time
 Advanced Analytics is the Key
y y
 Advanced Analytics Must be embedded in the
collectors and sensors
• Think about where the data comes from
• Attempt to capture and analyze any data that
might be relevant, regardless of where it resides
• Realize collaboration is the key in Advance
Analytics just as it is in Business
If we don’t change our
don t
direction, we’ll end up exactly
where we are headed.
—Ancient Chinese Proverb
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33. 4/1/2013
In Parting: Be Paranoid
•“Sooner or later, something
fundamental in your business world
fundamental in your business world
will change.”
• Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel
“Only the Paranoid Survive”
Only the Paranoid Survive
Copyright @2008 HBMG Inc.
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