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Paul Schumann

FORESIGHT IN A TIME OF SIMPLICITY,
COMPLEXITY AND CHAOS
Paul Schumann




UNPREDICTABILITY

 “Most of all, we need to preserve the
  absolute unpredictably and total improbability
  of our connected minds. That way we can
  keep open all the options, as we have in the
  past.”
 Lewis Thomas, 1973




                                               2
Paul Schumann




OUTLINE
   Introduction
   Foresight
   1, 2, A Few, Many
   Chaos, Gaia, Eros
   Simplicity, Complexity, Emergence & Fractals
   Examples of Emergence & Complexity
   Massively Parallel vs. Mathematical Modeling
   Characteristics: Simple and Complex
   Strategy
   Foresight redux
   Resources


                                                   3
Paul Schumann




COMPLEXITY HISTORY




                                     4
Paul Schumann




FORESIGHT

   To perceive or prepare wisely for the future




                                                   5
Paul Schumann




1, 2, A FEW, MANY
               1   2                             A Few
                                 Many
 Newton        Poincare                              Gauss      Boltzmann




  Simplicity              Organized Complexity         Disorganized
                             Complexity
                                                                            6
Paul Schumann




CHAOS, GAIA, EROS

   Chaos: the source of all creation



   Gaia: the created universe



   Eros: the creative impulse

                                             7
Paul Schumann




SIMPLICITY
   Growth Curve
    (Logistic)


   Exponential Curve


   Learning Curve
    (Experience)


   Substitution Curves                   8
Paul Schumann




COMPLEXITY, EMERGENCE & FRACTALS
   The behavior of a
    complex system in                                Complexity
    equilibrium is chaotic, in
    non-equilibrium is critical
   Emergence is the way                Equilibrium
                                                                Non-
    complex systems and                                       equilibrium
    patterns arise out of a
    multiplicity of relatively
                                          Chaos                   Criticality
    simple interactions
   A fractal is an object or
    quantity that displays                Agents
    self-similarity on all
    scales.
                          Adaptive     Emergence                  Fractals

                                                                                9
Paul Schumann




FOOLED BY COMPLEXITY




                                       10
Paul Schumann




CHAOS
        Double Pendulum




                                          11
Paul Schumann




SIMPLICITY TO CHAOS
              The Logistic Map: x t + 1 = R x t ( 1 – x t )




     R=2                                        R=4
     x 0 = 0.99                                 x 0 = 0.2
                                                x 0 = 0.20000000001




                                                                      12
Paul Schumann




CRITICALITY




                              N = a M -2




                                     13
Paul Schumann




EARTHQUAKES

                              Criticality




Gaussian




                                            14
Paul Schumann




STOCK MARKET




                               P=a C -2.1
                               2007: corr=0.98
                               2008: corr=0.94




                                           15
Paul Schumann




INTEGRATED CIRCUITS
                    10,000,000,000                        Integrated Circuit CPU

                         1,000,000,000



                          100,000,000
  Numer of Transistors




                           10,000,000



                            1,000,000



                              100,000



                               10,000



                                1,000
                                     1965   1970   1975      1980   1985          1990    1995    2000   2005   2010
                                                                           Year



                                                                                                                       16
Paul Schumann




INTEGRATED CIRCUITS
                 1
                      1                                                  10




                                                         P ~ D -1.5
                                                         corr = 0.98
 Probability




                0.1                                                   Data
                                                                      Projection




               0.01
                          Fractional Delta

                                                                               17
Paul Schumann




EMERGENCE


       T1                                   T2>T1




       T1                                     T1



            Bernard Cell (1900)




                                                    18
Paul Schumann




WEATHER MAP




                              19
Paul Schumann




EMERGENCE




            Termite Cathedral
                                            20
Paul Schumann




EMERGENCE




                            21
Paul Schumann




FRACTALS
   To create a Koch snowflake, one
    begins with an equilateral triangle
    and then replaces the middle third of
    every line segment with a pair of line
    segments that form an equilateral
    quot;bump.quot; One then performs the same
    replacement on every line segment of
    the resulting shape, ad infinitum. With
    every iteration, the perimeter of this
    shape increases by one third of the
    previous length. The Koch snowflake
    is the result of an infinite number of
    these iterations, and has an infinite
    length, while its area remains finite.
    For this reason, the Koch snowflake
    and similar constructions were
    sometimes called quot;monster curves.“
   Wikipedia



                                                              22
Paul Schumann




FRACTAL




                          23
Paul Schumann




FRACTAL ZOOM




        A magnification of the phoenix set. (Wikipedia)

                                                          24
Paul Schumann




FRACTAL ZOOM




                               25
Paul Schumann




FRACTAL ZOOM (MANDELBROT SET)




    Compliments of goooz (http://www.youtube.com/user/gooozz)   26
Paul Schumann




MATHEMATICAL               MASSIVELY PARALLEL

   Derived                   Simulation
   Analytical                Describe underlying
   Conditional                mechanisms
   Equation: x = ½ a t2      Rule based agents in an
   Predictive                 environment
                              Exploration
                              Easier to add random or
                               probabilistic events
                              Flexible & intuitive


MODELING
                                                         27
Paul Schumann




STARLOGO




                           28
Paul Schumann




STARLOGO (RABBITS)




                                     29
Paul Schumann




IT’S NOT EITHER – OR, IT’S BOTH - AND
                  Complexity


                    Chaos




     Simplicity




                      Criticality




                                                    30
Paul Schumann




CHARACTERISTICS & APPLICATIONS
               Simplicity     Chaos            Emergence      Criticality




Characteristic Reductionistic Dynamical        Agents         Complex
s              Deterministic system            Interactive    system
               Predictive     Deterministic    Rules          Non-
               Closed         Initial          Massively      equilibrium
               system         conditions       parallel       Unpredictable
                              sensitive                       Probabilistic
                              Attractors
                              Holistic

Applications   Utility function Scenarios      Insight        History
               Trends                          Exploration    Probability
               Driving forces                  Shaping
               unchanged
                                                                              31
Paul Schumann




STRATEGY
 Understand the system
 Explore the system
 Use “what if”
 Identify opportunities and threats
 Utilize early warning system (if possible)
 Look for asymmetries
 Understand risk, probabilities and outcomes
 Expand the system
 Start again



                                                32
Paul Schumann




FORESIGHT REDUX


                   Insight



    Foresight     Portent



                  Prudence




                                      33
Paul Schumann




THE FUTURE OF FORESIGHT

 More systems
 More interconnectedness in the systems

 The reach of a system is growing

 The number of people in a system is
  increasing
 Therefore: More complexity
     More chaos
     More criticality

     More emergence
                                           34
Paul Schumann




THE PRESENT

 “It makes me happy. To be at the beginning
  again, knowing almost nothing… The ordinary-
  sized stuff which is our lives, the things people
  write poetry about – clouds – daffodils –
  waterfalls,,,these things are full of mystery, as
  mysterious to us as the heavens were to the
  Greeks…It’s the best possible time to be
  alive, when almost everything you thought you
  knew is wrong.”
 Tom Stoppard, Arcadia
                                                      35
Paul Schumann




PAUL SCHUMANN
 Glocal Vantage Inc, PO Box 161475, Austin, TX
  78716
 512.632.6586
 paul.schumann@glocalvantage.com
 http://www.glocalvantage.com
 http://incollaboration.ning.com
 http://www.twitter.com/innovant2003
     Twibe: http://www.twitter.com/groups/future
     #future
   Want to go further? Contact me…

                                                    36
Paul Schumann




RESOURCES
   Complexity: A Guided Tour, Melanie Mitchell, Oxford, 2009
   The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Random
    House, 2007
   Adventures in Modeling: Exploring Complex, Dynamic Systems with StarLogo, Vanessa
    Stevens Colella, Eric Klopfer & Mitchel Resnick, Teachers College press, 2001
   Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, and Software, Steven
    Johnson, Scribner,2001
   Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen, Mark Buchanan, Three Rivers Press, 2000
   Turtles, Termites and Traffic Jams: Explorations in Massively Parallel Microworlds, Mitchel
    Resnick, MIT, 1997
   The Tao of Chaos, Katya Walter, Element Books, 1996
   Chaos Gaia Eros, Ralph Abraham, Harper, 1994
   Tao of Chaos: Merging East and West, Katya Walter, Kairos Center, 1994
   Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos, M. Mitchell
    Waldrop, Touchstone, 1992
   Exploring Complexity: An Introduction, Gregoire Nicolis & Ilya Prigogine, Freeman, 1989
   Chaos: Making a New A Science, James Gleick, Penguin, 1987
   Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid, Douglas Hofstadter, Vintage, 1980
Go to Insights*Intelligence *Innovation Collaborative (http://incollaboration.ning.com) and
search for complexity. All the resources listed above have blog entries and or links.



                                                                                              37
This work is licensed under the Creative
    Commons Attribution license. You may
 distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this
work, even commercially, as long as you credit
      me for the original creation as Paul
           Schumann, Glocal Vantage
         Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.

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Forecasting Complexity and Emergence

  • 1. Paul Schumann FORESIGHT IN A TIME OF SIMPLICITY, COMPLEXITY AND CHAOS
  • 2. Paul Schumann UNPREDICTABILITY  “Most of all, we need to preserve the absolute unpredictably and total improbability of our connected minds. That way we can keep open all the options, as we have in the past.”  Lewis Thomas, 1973 2
  • 3. Paul Schumann OUTLINE  Introduction  Foresight  1, 2, A Few, Many  Chaos, Gaia, Eros  Simplicity, Complexity, Emergence & Fractals  Examples of Emergence & Complexity  Massively Parallel vs. Mathematical Modeling  Characteristics: Simple and Complex  Strategy  Foresight redux  Resources 3
  • 5. Paul Schumann FORESIGHT  To perceive or prepare wisely for the future 5
  • 6. Paul Schumann 1, 2, A FEW, MANY 1 2 A Few Many Newton Poincare Gauss Boltzmann Simplicity Organized Complexity Disorganized Complexity 6
  • 7. Paul Schumann CHAOS, GAIA, EROS  Chaos: the source of all creation  Gaia: the created universe  Eros: the creative impulse 7
  • 8. Paul Schumann SIMPLICITY  Growth Curve (Logistic)  Exponential Curve  Learning Curve (Experience)  Substitution Curves 8
  • 9. Paul Schumann COMPLEXITY, EMERGENCE & FRACTALS  The behavior of a complex system in Complexity equilibrium is chaotic, in non-equilibrium is critical  Emergence is the way Equilibrium Non- complex systems and equilibrium patterns arise out of a multiplicity of relatively Chaos Criticality simple interactions  A fractal is an object or quantity that displays Agents self-similarity on all scales. Adaptive Emergence Fractals 9
  • 10. Paul Schumann FOOLED BY COMPLEXITY 10
  • 11. Paul Schumann CHAOS Double Pendulum 11
  • 12. Paul Schumann SIMPLICITY TO CHAOS The Logistic Map: x t + 1 = R x t ( 1 – x t ) R=2 R=4 x 0 = 0.99 x 0 = 0.2 x 0 = 0.20000000001 12
  • 13. Paul Schumann CRITICALITY N = a M -2 13
  • 14. Paul Schumann EARTHQUAKES Criticality Gaussian 14
  • 15. Paul Schumann STOCK MARKET P=a C -2.1 2007: corr=0.98 2008: corr=0.94 15
  • 16. Paul Schumann INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 10,000,000,000 Integrated Circuit CPU 1,000,000,000 100,000,000 Numer of Transistors 10,000,000 1,000,000 100,000 10,000 1,000 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year 16
  • 17. Paul Schumann INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 1 1 10 P ~ D -1.5 corr = 0.98 Probability 0.1 Data Projection 0.01 Fractional Delta 17
  • 18. Paul Schumann EMERGENCE T1 T2>T1 T1 T1 Bernard Cell (1900) 18
  • 20. Paul Schumann EMERGENCE Termite Cathedral 20
  • 22. Paul Schumann FRACTALS  To create a Koch snowflake, one begins with an equilateral triangle and then replaces the middle third of every line segment with a pair of line segments that form an equilateral quot;bump.quot; One then performs the same replacement on every line segment of the resulting shape, ad infinitum. With every iteration, the perimeter of this shape increases by one third of the previous length. The Koch snowflake is the result of an infinite number of these iterations, and has an infinite length, while its area remains finite. For this reason, the Koch snowflake and similar constructions were sometimes called quot;monster curves.“  Wikipedia 22
  • 24. Paul Schumann FRACTAL ZOOM A magnification of the phoenix set. (Wikipedia) 24
  • 26. Paul Schumann FRACTAL ZOOM (MANDELBROT SET) Compliments of goooz (http://www.youtube.com/user/gooozz) 26
  • 27. Paul Schumann MATHEMATICAL MASSIVELY PARALLEL  Derived  Simulation  Analytical  Describe underlying  Conditional mechanisms  Equation: x = ½ a t2  Rule based agents in an  Predictive environment  Exploration  Easier to add random or probabilistic events  Flexible & intuitive MODELING 27
  • 30. Paul Schumann IT’S NOT EITHER – OR, IT’S BOTH - AND Complexity Chaos Simplicity Criticality 30
  • 31. Paul Schumann CHARACTERISTICS & APPLICATIONS Simplicity Chaos Emergence Criticality Characteristic Reductionistic Dynamical Agents Complex s Deterministic system Interactive system Predictive Deterministic Rules Non- Closed Initial Massively equilibrium system conditions parallel Unpredictable sensitive Probabilistic Attractors Holistic Applications Utility function Scenarios Insight History Trends Exploration Probability Driving forces Shaping unchanged 31
  • 32. Paul Schumann STRATEGY  Understand the system  Explore the system  Use “what if”  Identify opportunities and threats  Utilize early warning system (if possible)  Look for asymmetries  Understand risk, probabilities and outcomes  Expand the system  Start again 32
  • 33. Paul Schumann FORESIGHT REDUX Insight Foresight Portent Prudence 33
  • 34. Paul Schumann THE FUTURE OF FORESIGHT  More systems  More interconnectedness in the systems  The reach of a system is growing  The number of people in a system is increasing  Therefore: More complexity  More chaos  More criticality  More emergence 34
  • 35. Paul Schumann THE PRESENT  “It makes me happy. To be at the beginning again, knowing almost nothing… The ordinary- sized stuff which is our lives, the things people write poetry about – clouds – daffodils – waterfalls,,,these things are full of mystery, as mysterious to us as the heavens were to the Greeks…It’s the best possible time to be alive, when almost everything you thought you knew is wrong.”  Tom Stoppard, Arcadia 35
  • 36. Paul Schumann PAUL SCHUMANN  Glocal Vantage Inc, PO Box 161475, Austin, TX 78716  512.632.6586  paul.schumann@glocalvantage.com  http://www.glocalvantage.com  http://incollaboration.ning.com  http://www.twitter.com/innovant2003  Twibe: http://www.twitter.com/groups/future  #future  Want to go further? Contact me… 36
  • 37. Paul Schumann RESOURCES  Complexity: A Guided Tour, Melanie Mitchell, Oxford, 2009  The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Random House, 2007  Adventures in Modeling: Exploring Complex, Dynamic Systems with StarLogo, Vanessa Stevens Colella, Eric Klopfer & Mitchel Resnick, Teachers College press, 2001  Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, and Software, Steven Johnson, Scribner,2001  Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen, Mark Buchanan, Three Rivers Press, 2000  Turtles, Termites and Traffic Jams: Explorations in Massively Parallel Microworlds, Mitchel Resnick, MIT, 1997  The Tao of Chaos, Katya Walter, Element Books, 1996  Chaos Gaia Eros, Ralph Abraham, Harper, 1994  Tao of Chaos: Merging East and West, Katya Walter, Kairos Center, 1994  Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos, M. Mitchell Waldrop, Touchstone, 1992  Exploring Complexity: An Introduction, Gregoire Nicolis & Ilya Prigogine, Freeman, 1989  Chaos: Making a New A Science, James Gleick, Penguin, 1987  Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid, Douglas Hofstadter, Vintage, 1980 Go to Insights*Intelligence *Innovation Collaborative (http://incollaboration.ning.com) and search for complexity. All the resources listed above have blog entries and or links. 37
  • 38. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.