Más contenido relacionado La actualidad más candente (20) Similar a What are the limits to current policy success? (20) Más de International Energy Agency (20) What are the limits to current policy success?1. What are the limits to
current policy success?
Paolo Frankl
Head, Renewable Energy Division
International Energy Agency
REWP-RIAB Workshop ‘Renewables – Policy and Market Design Challenges’
Paris, OECD, 27 March 2012
2. Policies push RE growth
Wind Bioenergy Solar PV Hydro other
Generation
338 296 31 3503 74
2010 [TWh]
CAGR 2005-
26.5% 8.8% 50.8% 3.1% 4.6%
2010 [%]
© OECD/IEA 2012
3. Costs are Falling
• Hydro and some 100
PV decreasing costs by
biomass and < 1976
-19% for each doubling of
cumulative installed capacity
geothermal already
PV Module Price (USD 2010/Wp)
< 1980
cost-competitive
• Additional technologies 10
getting competitive in a < 1990
broader set of < 2000
circumstances
Learning Rate: 19.3%
• Opens up new < 2010
deployment 1
1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000
opportunities Cumulative capacity (MW)
Data from Breyer and Gerlach, 2010
© OECD/IEA, 2011
4. Mature Markets Facing New
Challenges
Deployment
Inception Take-off Consolidation
Hydro
DNK – Wind
onshore
DEU – Wind
DEU – Solar
PV
CHN – Wind onshore
USA – PV
CSP
Time
Adequate Possible Problems Progress Blocked
© OECD/IEA 2012
5. Grid may act as a constraint
Strong wind, low
load case depicted
Expected load
flows for 2013
(based on 2009
analysis)
Enhancement
required
Conv. generation
EEG, CHP gen.
Load
Load flow (at max)
Load flow
Source: German TSOs, public data © OECD/IEA 2012
6. Flexibility is key for managing v-RE
There are 4 flexibility resources
Demand side Interconnection
Flexible Energy storage
Response with adjacent
power plants facilities
(via smart grid) markets
Source: IEA, Harnessing Variable Renewables, 2011
Industrial
A biomass-fired residential A pumped hydro Scandinavian
power plant facility interconnections
© OECD/IEA 2012
7. Grid expansion vs RE Deployment
Example: Germany Example: Spain
30 30 30 25
25 25 25
20
20 20 20
thousand km
thousand km
15
GW
GW
15 15 15
10
10 10 10
5
5 5 5
0 0 0 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: IEA Wind,
380kV 220kV Wind UCTE, ENTSOE
380kV 220kV Wind
© OECD/IEA 2012
8. Hydro & pump-hydro: enablers of vRE growth
• Hydropower generation continues growing as fast as all non-hydro
renewables together since 2000
• Global pumped-hydro capacities: 98 GW by 2005, 140 GW today,
up to 200 GW by 2015 or soon thereafter
© OECD/IEA 2012
9. Lack of Policy Coordination Jeopardising Outcomes?
Today’s
1990s Tomorrow
Policies
• RE Power
• EE
• CO2 • Low carbon
• Unbundling
• Buildings generation
• Liberalisation competitive?
• RE Heat
• Market
Integration
© OECD/IEA 2012
10. Variable RE penetration impact on electricity prices
(Merit Order Effect)
Source: IEA, C. Philibert, 2011
© OECD/IEA 2012
11. Reducing Conventional Capacity Factors
Example: Spain
GW
60% 90
80
50%
70
40% 60
50
30%
40
20% 30
20
10%
10
0% 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Conventional capacity Peak Load Conventional capacity factor Variable RE share
Capacity markets emerging in several European
countries New Market Integration issues? © OECD/IEA 2012
12. Exposure to fuel price variability in spot markets
Source: IEA, C. Hood, 2011
© OECD/IEA 2012
13. Market design and the “missing money” issue
• In liberalised markets, renewables not competitive:
too expensive and bearing the fuel volatility risk
Past
• FiTs and RPS-driven PPAs offset fuel risk and fill the cost gap
Now • Renewables expand, learn and reach competitiveness
• Larger shares of renewables drive spot market prices down (merit
order effect) and squeeze capacity factors of conventional plants
Now
• With current market design and no support framework, further
expansion of (competitive) renewables threatened by marginal
Next? (running) cost pricing reduction and high fossil price volatility risk
© OECD/IEA 2012
14. Conclusions
RE policies successful in driving down costs and
deploying RE to take-off phase
New challenges emerging at system and market design
level
How to foster investment in flexibility resources?
How to reduce investment risk in low-C, up-front capital
intensive energy technologies?
How to coordinate with climate change policies?
Portfolio-, system-, and investment risk-oriented policy
approach needed
© OECD/IEA 2012