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Engineering the POlicy-making
                   LIfe CYcle
            Objective ICT-2011.5.6 target a
  ICT solutions for Governance and Policy Modeling

                Duration 36 Months
            Proposal Number N 288147

Kick-off Meeting Bologna 17-18 October 2011
Some figures

Objective ICT-2011.5.6 target a
ICT solutions for Governance and Policy Modeling

STREP Proposals submitted: 64
STREP Proposals above thresholds: 35
STREP Funded: 7
                                  Funded even if the
Success rate: 10,94 %             success rate was
                                     6.25

 e-POLICY was ranked fourth
  hence it should be a good project 
Consortium
Beneficiary Number   Beneficiary name             Beneficiary   Country
                                                  short name
1(coordinator)       ALMA MATER STUDIORUM         UNIBO         ITALY
                     Università di Bologna

2                    University College Cork      UCC           IRELAND
3                    The University of Surrey     SURREY        UK
4                    INESC Porto                  INESC         PORTUGAL
                     Instituto De Engenharia De
                     Sistemas E Computadores Do
                     Porto
5                    Fraunhofer Institute for     FRAUNHOFER    GERMANY
                     Computer Graphics Research   IGD
6                    Regione Emilia Romagna       RER           ITALY
7                    PPA Energy                   PPA           UK
8                    Aster                        ASTER         ITALY
9                    Università di Ferrara        UNIFE         ITALY
The Vision
• To support policy makers in their decision process across a multi-
  disciplinary effort aimed at the engineering of a policy making
  life-cycle that integrates, in a unique way, global and
  individual perspectives on the decision process.

• To evaluate the economic, social and environmental impacts
  during policy making (at both the global and individual levels).

• To derive social impacts through opinion mining on e-
  participation data

• To aid the policy maker, citizens and stakeholders with
  visualization tools
General Scheme

           Case study: the
           Emilia Romagna
           Regional Energy Plan
           2011-2013
Objectives

    The e-POLICY project aims to equip policy makers with
    integrated models, optimization, visualization, simulation and
    opinion mining techniques that improve the outcomes of
    complex global decision making.



•   Obj 1 Integration of regional and individual level modelling
•   Obj 2 Insert impact assessment during the regional plan
    construction
•   Obj 3 Insert social impacts from opinion mining into the
    individual and the global models
•   Obj 4 Support the policy making life cycle with visualization tools
Policy Making Life Cycle
Expected Outcomes

•   A flexible tool for optimization and decision support for policy making at global
    (regional) level taking into account objectives, constraints, financial issues and
    impacts on environment, economy and society
•   An agent-based simulation approach at individual level for identifying the best
    policy implementation strategies
•   A game theoretical approach for the interaction between the global and the
    individual levels
•   Techniques for opinion mining for social impacts derived from e-participation data
•   A novel application of visual analytics techniques for supporting policy makers in
    the decision process and helping citizens and stakeholders in providing a more
    informed evaluation; in particular geo-referenced visualisation will be considered
•   An open source tool integrating the above mentioned components that is open,
    accessible and reusable in other policy contexts
•   Extensive activities aimed at achieving the highest level of dissemination of
    project results and preparing for the exploitation of the proposed solution
    overall and of each individual components
Workplan
WP1 Project Management

WP2 Policy modeling: components of the regional planning problem and     T
system specification                                                     E
                                                                         C
WP3 Global policy modelling: optimization and decision support
                                                                         H
WP4 Individual policy modelling: agent based simulation                  N
WP5 Integration of the global and individual levels: game theory based   I
interaction                                                              C
WP6 Opinion mining on e-participation data for deriving social impacts   A
WP7 Visual analytics techniques for supporting the policy making         L
process and e-participation
WP8 System implementation, validation and assessment

WP9 System Demonstration on the Regional Energy Plan
WP10 Dissemination and Exploitation
Workplan at a glance
                                                          WP1: Project Management


                                                               WP2:Policy Modeling
WP10: Dissemination and Exploitation




                                                                                                                     WP9: Demonstration on the Reg. Energy Plan
                                                                      WP3
                                                             Global Policy modeling
                                                          Optimization and decision support



                                                                       WP5
                                            WP7                                                       WP6
                                                                Game-theory based             Opinion mining on
                                       Visual analytics            interaction                e-Participation data

                                                                        WP4
                                                             Individual Policy modeling
                                                                 Agent based simulation




                                                  WP8: System Integration, Validation & Assessment
WP2

• Title Policy Modeling: components of the regional planning
  problem and system specification
• Leader: RER - Type: RTD
• Objectives: Deep analysis of complex decision problems arising in
  the field of regional planning including impacts on environment,
  society and economy, constraints, objectives, implementation
  strategies. System specification

• Overall MM: 40
• M2.1 Policy modeling components and system specification
  identified – Month 15
• M2.2 Means of project evaluation available – Month 20
WP3

• Title Global policy modelling: optimization and decision support
  system
• Leader: UNIBO - Type: RTD
• Objectives: Definition of a global (regional) policy modelling aimed
  at computing alternative, consistent and optimal political scenarios.
  Use of hybrid reasoning and optimization techniques, such as linear,
  non linear programming, constraint programming, robust
  optimization and multi-criteria decision making.

• Overall MM 35
• M3.1 Global policy prototype implementation is completed and
  tested – Month 33
WP4

• Title Individual policy modelling: agent-based simulation
• Leader: SURREY - Type: RTD
• Objectives: Create a multi-level agent-based model that will allow
  policymakers to explore the consequences of different types of
  policy instrument and thus enable them to make better choices.
• Develop an agent-based simulation, with agents representing the
  main actors. The agents will be given behavioural rules modelling
  their likely individual responses to policy instruments (including the
  effect of influences from other actors, e.g. as a result of collective
  actions, imitation etc.).
• Overall MM 38
• M4.1 Agent-based simulation prototype completed and calibrated
  Month 38
WP5

•   Title Integration of the global and individual level: game theory
    interaction
•   Leader: UCC - Type: RTD
•   Objectives: Provide methodologies and techniques for modelling the
    interaction between the global and individual levels through the use
    of stochastic game theory and reinforcement learning. The evolution
    of a policy, framed as a consultative democratic process, will be
    modelled as a series of stage games in which each agent builds a
    model of the preferences of other agents in the context and from
    this computes its best response used to refine the current stage
    game in order to converge on an overall equilibrium.
•   Overall MM: 19
•   M5.1 Testbed Prototypes and Learning Methods implemented and
    tested Month 34
WP6

• Title Opinion mining on e-participation data for deriving social
  impacts
• Leader: INESC - Type: RTD
• Objectives: Mine the sentiment of the public regarding the current
  scenario (ex-ante evaluation) and the space of possible decisions
  (ex-post evaluation), toward more informed decision making.
• Given e-participation data, the WP will develop a learning framework
  whose output can be integrated within the decision support
  environment developed in WP3 and the individual level modelling
  developed in WP4.
• Overall MM 40
• M6.1 Prototype of the opinion mining tool tested – Month 33
WP7

• Title Visual analytics techniques for supporting the policy
  making process and e-participation
• Leader: FRAUNHOFER IGD - Type: RTD
• Objectives: Support both the policy maker in its decision process and
  citizens and stakeholders in providing an informed evaluation of
  policy options. Since decision makers are often no IT experts, they
  have to be guided via visual-interactive interfaces. Visual analytics
  techniques will support the e-participation tools by providing a
  friendly access to data.
• Overall MM 28
• M7.1 Visual analytics prototype implementation is completed and
  tested Month 34
WP8

• Title System Integration, Evaluation and Assessment
• Leader: UNIBO - Type: RTD
• Objectives: Define the overall system requirements of the project.
  Produce the project proof of concept: a decision support system for
  policy makers working at global and individual level considering
  economic, environmental and society impacts, objectives and
  constraints. Target the regional energy plan as a mean for
  assessing the usability, flexibility and effectiveness of the system.
• Overall MM 36
• M8.1 Overall system architecture available Month12
• M8.2 Overall prototype functional and regional energy plan are
  faced by the decision support system Month 36
WP9

• Title System Demonstration on the Regional Energy Plan
• Leader: UNIBO - Type: RTD
• Objectives: Define the overall system requirements of the project.
  Produce the project proof of concept: a decision support system for
  policy makers working at global and individual level considering
  economic, environmental and society impacts, objectives and
  constraints. Target the regional energy plan as a mean for
  assessing the usability, flexibility and effectiveness of the system.
• Overall MM 31.5
• M8.1 Definition of the pilot scenario and related data collection
  completed Month10
• M8.2 Complex problems from regional energy plan are solved by
  the decision support system Month 36
WP10

• Title Dissemination and Exploitation
• Leader: PPA - Type: MGT
• Objectives: To disseminate the project scientific outcomes and
  promote the use of the developed tools and methodologies to public
  bodies and SMEs
• Advisory and Dissemination Board partially formed will be enlarged
  during the project.
• Overall MM 37
• M8.1 e-POLICY PUDF Month 28
Effort Table
           Partic.                                                                    Total
                     WP1    WP2   WP3   WP4   WP5   WP6    WP7   WP8   WP9    WP10
Partic.    short                                                                     person
 no.       name      MGT    RTD   RTD   RTD   RTD   RTD    RTD   RTD   DEMO   DISS   months

  1        UNIBO     15.5    5     17    4     3     1      2    15     5     5.5      73

  2         UCC       1      4     4     3    16     0      0     4     1.5    3      36.5

  3       SURREY      1      3     0    20     0     3      0     5     1.5    3      36.5

  4         INESC     1      5     4     4     0    24      0     5     1.5    3      47.5
          FRAUNHO
  5          FER      1      1     2     2     0     0     24     4     1.5    3      38.5

  6         RER       1     10     1     1     0    6.5     2     0     7.5    3       32

  7         PPA       1      8     4     4     0     0      0     2     5     9.5     33.5

  8        ASTER      1      3     0     0     0     5      0     1     6     4.5     20.5

  9        UNIFE     0.5     1     3     0     0     3      0     0     2     0.5      10

Total                23     40     35   38    19    42.5   28    36    31.5    35     328
ProjectTiming
First year duties

• All tasks start during the first year
•   D1.1 Management Guidelines UNIBO - M3
•   D1.2 Activity progress report UNIBO - M6
•   D1.4 Project quality assessment UNIBO M12

•   D2.1 Decision support system requirements UNIBO - M10

•   D5.1 Survey of classic, stochastic and Markov game theory and reinforcement and
    Bayesian learning UCC - M10

•   D8.1 Integrated policy decision support system architecture UNIBO M12

•   D9.1 Regional Energy plan: components and data sources for opinion mining RER
    M10
First year duties

•   D10.1 Initial version of the project website UNIBO - M4
•   D10.2 Project brochure PPA - M4

•   Beginning of the second year

•   D3.1 Design of the global (regional) model and its instantiation on the energy plan
    UNIBO - M13

•   D10.3 Periodic report on user community involvement and dissemination - PPA -
    M14
Budget




 EC contribution breakdown by partners    EC contribution breakdown by countries




                                                Total cost
                                                3.189.966

                                                Requested EC contribution
                                                2.559.162


EC contribution breakdown by acrivities
Proposed review meetings

Review   Tentative timing   Planned venue   Comments, if any
number                      of review



         Kick off meeting   Bologna

1        M12                Bruxelles

2        M24                Bruxelles

3        M36                Bologna

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ePolicy - Engineering the POlicy-making LIfe CYcle

  • 1. Engineering the POlicy-making LIfe CYcle Objective ICT-2011.5.6 target a ICT solutions for Governance and Policy Modeling Duration 36 Months Proposal Number N 288147 Kick-off Meeting Bologna 17-18 October 2011
  • 2. Some figures Objective ICT-2011.5.6 target a ICT solutions for Governance and Policy Modeling STREP Proposals submitted: 64 STREP Proposals above thresholds: 35 STREP Funded: 7 Funded even if the Success rate: 10,94 % success rate was 6.25 e-POLICY was ranked fourth hence it should be a good project 
  • 3. Consortium Beneficiary Number Beneficiary name Beneficiary Country short name 1(coordinator) ALMA MATER STUDIORUM UNIBO ITALY Università di Bologna 2 University College Cork UCC IRELAND 3 The University of Surrey SURREY UK 4 INESC Porto INESC PORTUGAL Instituto De Engenharia De Sistemas E Computadores Do Porto 5 Fraunhofer Institute for FRAUNHOFER GERMANY Computer Graphics Research IGD 6 Regione Emilia Romagna RER ITALY 7 PPA Energy PPA UK 8 Aster ASTER ITALY 9 Università di Ferrara UNIFE ITALY
  • 4. The Vision • To support policy makers in their decision process across a multi- disciplinary effort aimed at the engineering of a policy making life-cycle that integrates, in a unique way, global and individual perspectives on the decision process. • To evaluate the economic, social and environmental impacts during policy making (at both the global and individual levels). • To derive social impacts through opinion mining on e- participation data • To aid the policy maker, citizens and stakeholders with visualization tools
  • 5. General Scheme Case study: the Emilia Romagna Regional Energy Plan 2011-2013
  • 6. Objectives The e-POLICY project aims to equip policy makers with integrated models, optimization, visualization, simulation and opinion mining techniques that improve the outcomes of complex global decision making. • Obj 1 Integration of regional and individual level modelling • Obj 2 Insert impact assessment during the regional plan construction • Obj 3 Insert social impacts from opinion mining into the individual and the global models • Obj 4 Support the policy making life cycle with visualization tools
  • 8. Expected Outcomes • A flexible tool for optimization and decision support for policy making at global (regional) level taking into account objectives, constraints, financial issues and impacts on environment, economy and society • An agent-based simulation approach at individual level for identifying the best policy implementation strategies • A game theoretical approach for the interaction between the global and the individual levels • Techniques for opinion mining for social impacts derived from e-participation data • A novel application of visual analytics techniques for supporting policy makers in the decision process and helping citizens and stakeholders in providing a more informed evaluation; in particular geo-referenced visualisation will be considered • An open source tool integrating the above mentioned components that is open, accessible and reusable in other policy contexts • Extensive activities aimed at achieving the highest level of dissemination of project results and preparing for the exploitation of the proposed solution overall and of each individual components
  • 9. Workplan WP1 Project Management WP2 Policy modeling: components of the regional planning problem and T system specification E C WP3 Global policy modelling: optimization and decision support H WP4 Individual policy modelling: agent based simulation N WP5 Integration of the global and individual levels: game theory based I interaction C WP6 Opinion mining on e-participation data for deriving social impacts A WP7 Visual analytics techniques for supporting the policy making L process and e-participation WP8 System implementation, validation and assessment WP9 System Demonstration on the Regional Energy Plan WP10 Dissemination and Exploitation
  • 10. Workplan at a glance WP1: Project Management WP2:Policy Modeling WP10: Dissemination and Exploitation WP9: Demonstration on the Reg. Energy Plan WP3 Global Policy modeling Optimization and decision support WP5 WP7 WP6 Game-theory based Opinion mining on Visual analytics interaction e-Participation data WP4 Individual Policy modeling Agent based simulation WP8: System Integration, Validation & Assessment
  • 11. WP2 • Title Policy Modeling: components of the regional planning problem and system specification • Leader: RER - Type: RTD • Objectives: Deep analysis of complex decision problems arising in the field of regional planning including impacts on environment, society and economy, constraints, objectives, implementation strategies. System specification • Overall MM: 40 • M2.1 Policy modeling components and system specification identified – Month 15 • M2.2 Means of project evaluation available – Month 20
  • 12. WP3 • Title Global policy modelling: optimization and decision support system • Leader: UNIBO - Type: RTD • Objectives: Definition of a global (regional) policy modelling aimed at computing alternative, consistent and optimal political scenarios. Use of hybrid reasoning and optimization techniques, such as linear, non linear programming, constraint programming, robust optimization and multi-criteria decision making. • Overall MM 35 • M3.1 Global policy prototype implementation is completed and tested – Month 33
  • 13. WP4 • Title Individual policy modelling: agent-based simulation • Leader: SURREY - Type: RTD • Objectives: Create a multi-level agent-based model that will allow policymakers to explore the consequences of different types of policy instrument and thus enable them to make better choices. • Develop an agent-based simulation, with agents representing the main actors. The agents will be given behavioural rules modelling their likely individual responses to policy instruments (including the effect of influences from other actors, e.g. as a result of collective actions, imitation etc.). • Overall MM 38 • M4.1 Agent-based simulation prototype completed and calibrated Month 38
  • 14. WP5 • Title Integration of the global and individual level: game theory interaction • Leader: UCC - Type: RTD • Objectives: Provide methodologies and techniques for modelling the interaction between the global and individual levels through the use of stochastic game theory and reinforcement learning. The evolution of a policy, framed as a consultative democratic process, will be modelled as a series of stage games in which each agent builds a model of the preferences of other agents in the context and from this computes its best response used to refine the current stage game in order to converge on an overall equilibrium. • Overall MM: 19 • M5.1 Testbed Prototypes and Learning Methods implemented and tested Month 34
  • 15. WP6 • Title Opinion mining on e-participation data for deriving social impacts • Leader: INESC - Type: RTD • Objectives: Mine the sentiment of the public regarding the current scenario (ex-ante evaluation) and the space of possible decisions (ex-post evaluation), toward more informed decision making. • Given e-participation data, the WP will develop a learning framework whose output can be integrated within the decision support environment developed in WP3 and the individual level modelling developed in WP4. • Overall MM 40 • M6.1 Prototype of the opinion mining tool tested – Month 33
  • 16. WP7 • Title Visual analytics techniques for supporting the policy making process and e-participation • Leader: FRAUNHOFER IGD - Type: RTD • Objectives: Support both the policy maker in its decision process and citizens and stakeholders in providing an informed evaluation of policy options. Since decision makers are often no IT experts, they have to be guided via visual-interactive interfaces. Visual analytics techniques will support the e-participation tools by providing a friendly access to data. • Overall MM 28 • M7.1 Visual analytics prototype implementation is completed and tested Month 34
  • 17. WP8 • Title System Integration, Evaluation and Assessment • Leader: UNIBO - Type: RTD • Objectives: Define the overall system requirements of the project. Produce the project proof of concept: a decision support system for policy makers working at global and individual level considering economic, environmental and society impacts, objectives and constraints. Target the regional energy plan as a mean for assessing the usability, flexibility and effectiveness of the system. • Overall MM 36 • M8.1 Overall system architecture available Month12 • M8.2 Overall prototype functional and regional energy plan are faced by the decision support system Month 36
  • 18. WP9 • Title System Demonstration on the Regional Energy Plan • Leader: UNIBO - Type: RTD • Objectives: Define the overall system requirements of the project. Produce the project proof of concept: a decision support system for policy makers working at global and individual level considering economic, environmental and society impacts, objectives and constraints. Target the regional energy plan as a mean for assessing the usability, flexibility and effectiveness of the system. • Overall MM 31.5 • M8.1 Definition of the pilot scenario and related data collection completed Month10 • M8.2 Complex problems from regional energy plan are solved by the decision support system Month 36
  • 19. WP10 • Title Dissemination and Exploitation • Leader: PPA - Type: MGT • Objectives: To disseminate the project scientific outcomes and promote the use of the developed tools and methodologies to public bodies and SMEs • Advisory and Dissemination Board partially formed will be enlarged during the project. • Overall MM 37 • M8.1 e-POLICY PUDF Month 28
  • 20. Effort Table Partic. Total WP1 WP2 WP3 WP4 WP5 WP6 WP7 WP8 WP9 WP10 Partic. short person no. name MGT RTD RTD RTD RTD RTD RTD RTD DEMO DISS months 1 UNIBO 15.5 5 17 4 3 1 2 15 5 5.5 73 2 UCC 1 4 4 3 16 0 0 4 1.5 3 36.5 3 SURREY 1 3 0 20 0 3 0 5 1.5 3 36.5 4 INESC 1 5 4 4 0 24 0 5 1.5 3 47.5 FRAUNHO 5 FER 1 1 2 2 0 0 24 4 1.5 3 38.5 6 RER 1 10 1 1 0 6.5 2 0 7.5 3 32 7 PPA 1 8 4 4 0 0 0 2 5 9.5 33.5 8 ASTER 1 3 0 0 0 5 0 1 6 4.5 20.5 9 UNIFE 0.5 1 3 0 0 3 0 0 2 0.5 10 Total 23 40 35 38 19 42.5 28 36 31.5 35 328
  • 22. First year duties • All tasks start during the first year • D1.1 Management Guidelines UNIBO - M3 • D1.2 Activity progress report UNIBO - M6 • D1.4 Project quality assessment UNIBO M12 • D2.1 Decision support system requirements UNIBO - M10 • D5.1 Survey of classic, stochastic and Markov game theory and reinforcement and Bayesian learning UCC - M10 • D8.1 Integrated policy decision support system architecture UNIBO M12 • D9.1 Regional Energy plan: components and data sources for opinion mining RER M10
  • 23. First year duties • D10.1 Initial version of the project website UNIBO - M4 • D10.2 Project brochure PPA - M4 • Beginning of the second year • D3.1 Design of the global (regional) model and its instantiation on the energy plan UNIBO - M13 • D10.3 Periodic report on user community involvement and dissemination - PPA - M14
  • 24. Budget EC contribution breakdown by partners EC contribution breakdown by countries Total cost 3.189.966 Requested EC contribution 2.559.162 EC contribution breakdown by acrivities
  • 25. Proposed review meetings Review Tentative timing Planned venue Comments, if any number of review Kick off meeting Bologna 1 M12 Bruxelles 2 M24 Bruxelles 3 M36 Bologna