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II CONAGESP

Public Management National Congress


                 CONFIDENTIAL


                                                                                Pathways to Inclusive Growth
                                                                                           and the
                                                                                 Role of Social Participation
                                                                                   for Social Development




                 Document
                 Date
                                                                                               Francisco Filho
                                                                                     International Policy Centre for
                                                                                        Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG)
                                                                                  United Nations Development Programme
                 This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be
                 circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client
                 organization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company.
                 This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral
                 presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion.             Brasilia, 3 April 2012
Pathways for Inclusive Growth
Unit of measure




                                         Outline

                                         First Section - The Mandate and Role of IPC-IG

                                         Second Section -The Global South Context
                                                Which Development?
                                                Inclusive Growth
                                                         Concepts and Definitions
                                                         Indicators
                                                Policy Innovations for Inclusive Growth

  Delegates of the VietnamStudy Tour
                                         Third Section - Social Participation for Social
      on Social Inclusion of Ethnic      Development
    Minorities visit favelas in Rio de
             Janeiro, Brazil                       The role of participation
                                                   The Productive Inclusion framework
          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                                       2
The mandate and role of IPC-IG
Unit of measure




                                            Vision

                         Produce policy-oriented research and
                         facilitate learning and innovation at the global
                         level on poverty reduction and inclusive
                         growth through:


                              Global policy dialogue to better reflect
                             the new balance of power and
                             development imperatives of the Global
                             South
                              Exchange and learning between
                             countries to promote inclusive growth in
                             the South
          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                        3
The mandate and role of IPC-IG
Unit of measure



                               The Role of Applied Research and
                                    Knowledge Production
                         Addressing the Global Knowledge Inequities

                          Think Tanks Distribution
                             Global ‘Go-To Think Tanks’ Report 2010
                                 North America and Europe: 57%
                                 USA: 1816
                                 Brazil: 81
                                 South Africa: 85
                                 India: 292
                          World Impact of Scientific Output 2000-2010
                            (ISI/Thomsons Reuters)
                               Brazil:0.62%
                               India: 0.53 %
                               South Africa: 0.74 %
          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                     4
The mandate
Unit of measure          and role of IPC-IG

                                   Strengthening the voice of the Global South in
                                             the development debate
                                 Vision

                                 Knowledge Management and Advocacy to give
                                   voice to a New Development Agenda from the
                                   South.

                                 Strategic focus areas

                                  Strengthen knowledge management mechanisms for
                                    effective policy design and implementation towards
                                    inclusive growth

                                  Enhance South-South policy dialogue frameworks that
                                    reflect the new balances of power in a changing global
                                    governance environment


          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                                         5
The mandate and role of IPC-IG
Unit of measure


                The Role of Communications and Advocacy for Inclusive Growth




                                              The Poor in the Media: Are
                                                 development innovations
                                                 contributing to national policy
                                                 debate and agenda?


                                              Coverage of the poor by the main
                                                 daily news programmes under an
                                                 empowering perspective (percentage of
                                                 the total time):

                                                   Brazil: 7%
                                                   South Africa: 9%
                                                   Argentina: 13%

          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                                     6
The Global South Context
Unit of measure



                                Which Development?



 oWhich development? Which logic? Which dimensions of life?
         The human development approach

 o Development as freedom: The contributions of AmartyaSen

 o Making development work for vulnerable/marginalised groups
         The value of equality
         Cultural diversity and ethnic richness

 oTraps: Negative impacts of ‘development’ to vulnerable groups
         The poor as ‘obstacles’ to development: Exclusion from citizenship and
 from government policies
         Assimilation of traditional communities and ‘alien’ development models
          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                              7
The Global South Context
Unit of measure



                             Inclusive Growth: Concepts and Definitions


 Ali and Son (2007): (i) an increase in the average opportunities available to the population; and (ii)
    improvement in the equitability of the distribution of opportunities among the population.

 Ianchovichina and Lundstrom (2009): “In short, inclusive growth is about raising the pace of growth and
    enlarging the size of the economy, while leveling the playing field for investment and increasing
    productive employment opportunities.”

 Rauniyar and Kanbur (2010): “growth […] accompanied by lower income inequality, so that the
   increment of income accrues disproportionately to those with lower incomes.”

 Habito (2010): “GDP growth that leads to significant poverty reduction.”

 McKinley (2010): “(i) achieving sustainable growth that will create and expand economic opportunities,
   and (ii) ensuring broader access to these opportunities so that members of society can participate in
   and benefit from growth.”

 Klasen (2010): “…in terms of outcome, inclusive growth could be termed ‘disadvantage-reducing’
    growth.”

          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                                                       8
The Global South Context
Unit of measure



                                         IPC-IG’s approach


                         IPC-IG’s work on inclusive growth starts from the
                         premise that societies based on equality tend to
                         perform better in development and that long-term
                         public investments on comprehensive social
                         protection is a necessary condition to achieving
                         sustainable and inclusive growth.

                         A debate from the Global South
                         A policy debate that emerged in the South: India,
                         China, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Turkey

                         Inclusive growth seen as both an outcome and
                         a process, requiring benefit-sharing and
                         participation.
          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                         9
The Global South Context
Unit of measure


                           Inclusive Growth indicators in selected Emerging Economies



                                                                    Change in the Gini index of the
                               Annual GDP growth 2002-2009
              Countries                                           household per capita income in the
                                       (% per year)
                                                                             2000s (%)
   Argentina                                3.7                                  -15
   Brazil                                   3.7                                   -9
   Chile                                    4.2                                   -6
   Colombia                                 4.4                                   -1
   Mexico                                   2.8                                   -6
   Peru                                     5.6                                  -13
   Venezuela                                4.4                                   -1


          *     Footnote
Source:         Source                                                                                 10
The Global South Context
Unit of measure


                         Inclusive Growth indicators in selected Emerging Economies



                                      From
                                     1996 to                Avg.
                                      most    Gini Poverty GDP
                                     recent: Change Change growth
                         Argentina     2008       -4%        23%       5%
                         Brazil        2008       -9%       -54%       6%
                         China         2005       10%       -44%       9%
                         Egypt         2008      -16%       -30%       3%
                         India         2005       -1%        -7%       6%
                         Indonesia     2008        3%       -27%       4%
                         S. Africa     2005        4%       -99%       3%
                         Thailand      2004      -14%       -34%       9%
                         Turkey        2008      -13%        -8%       4%
                         Vietnam       2006       13%       -51%       7%
          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                                  11
The Global South Context
Unit of measure



                         Inclusive Growth indicators in selected Emerging Economies



                                                                           Government net
                                                                              lending/          Current account
                  GDP Growth            Inflation        Exchange Rate       borrowing              balance
                         %          consumer prices, %      LUC / US$      General Gov, % GDP           % GDP
                 2000        2010    2000       2010     2000      2010     2000      2010       2000       2010
Argentina         -0.8       9.2     -0.9       10.5      1.0       3.9      -3.6      -1.6      -3.1           0.8
Brazil            4.3        7.5      7.1       5.0       1.8       1.8      -3.4      -2.9      -3.8           -2.3
China             8.4        10.3     0.4       3.3       8.3       6.8      -3.3      -2.3      1.7            5.2
India             5.8        10.1     3.9       12.0      44.9     45.7      -9.9      -8.4      -1.0           -2.6
Indonesia         5.4        6.1      3.8       5.1      8421.8   9090.4     -2.0      -1.2      4.8            0.8
South Africa      4.2        2.8      5.4       4.3       6.9       7.3      -1.5      -5.0      -0.1           -2.8
Turkey            6.8        8.9     55.0       8.6       0.6       1.5      n/a       -2.9      -3.7           -6.6




          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                                                             12
The Global South Context
 Unit of measure



                          Inclusive Growth indicators in selected Emerging Economies



Gini, GDP average growth                                      Poverty (<2US$/day), GDP average growth
      c. 2006                                                       c. 2006
 1996 <35            35-40        40-50           50+          1996 <10         10-25         25-40       40+
  <35 India,6.4% Vietnam,7.3%                                   <10 Malaysia,6.9%
35-40 Egypt,3.2% Indonesia,4.2%                                     Turkey,4.3%
                 China,9.2%                                   10-25           Thailand,9.1%
40-50            Malaysia,6.9%Argentina,4.5%                                  Brazil,5.9%
                 Turkey,4.3% Mexico,3.8%                      25-40           Egypt,3.2% South Africa,3.9%
  50+                          Thailand,9.1% Brazil,5.9%        40+                       Vietnam,7.3% India,6.4%
                                             South Africa,3.9%




           *   Footnote
 Source:       Source                                                                                       13
The Global South Context
Unit of measure


                           Inclusive Growth indicators in selected Emerging Economies



                               28%
                                                                     Argentina

                                8%


                                             Turkey                           India
                              -12%
                         m
                         o
                         n
                         P
                         e
                         a
                         c
                         r
                         f




                                         Egypt                                        Indonesia
                              -32%
                                                 Thailand                                              China
                         U
                         d
                         $
                         2
                         <
                         a
                         S
                         y
                         /
                         )
                         (




                              -52%                                                                       Vietnam
                                                            Brazil
                         o
                         P
                         e
                         y
                         v
                         r
                         t




                              -72%


                              -92%
                                                                                           S. Africa

                             -112%
                                  -19%      -14%            -9%        -4%            1%          6%       11%     16%

                                                                             Gini Performance
          *   Footnote Bubble size: GDP growth
Source:       Source                                                                                                     14
The Global South Context
Unit of measure



                              Policy Innovations for Inclusive Growth

                         Highlights
                         Engagement with cross sectorial ministries,
                         implementation agencies along with policy think-
                         thanks/public intellectuals to support a change
                         agenda.
                         Shibboleth destruction (e.g. social protection is
                         expensive).
                         Demonstration of political results.
                         Alliances within legislature, judiciary, and collective
                         action groupings.
                         Enabling actions to confront vested interests.
                         Resistance to external imposition of best practices.
          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                                15
The Global South Context
Unit of measure


                            Policy Innovations for Inclusive Growth

The role of cash transfers and public works increasing the investments in human capital
through the support families give to their children.

                                                                                           n
 Brazilian Bolsa
 Família
                    Seeks to promote access to health, education and social
                    assistance; to fight hunger and poverty; and to stimulate    N utritio
                    the sustained emancipation of families living in poverty
                    and extreme poverty
                                                                                       th
 Colombian          increase the investments by families in extreme               Heal
 Familias en        poverty on their children’s human capital – resources
 Acción             conditional to attending school
                                                                                      io n
 Philippine 4P      improving human development of extremely
                                                                                Educat
                    poor households - cash grants to households with
                    pregnant women or children
 Mexican            enhance the opportunities of social and economic
 Oportunidades      development through the improvement of their education,
                    health and nutrition options
 Ethiopian PSNP
      *  Footnote   fight food insecurity to reduce household s’
Source:   Source    vulnerability                                                        16
Social Participation for Social Development
Unit of measure



                                 The Role of Participation



    Participation: ‘There is no social development without social participation’

    oFull access to development policy processes
             Design
             Implementation
             Monitoring
             Evaluation

    oMain barriers to participation
            Bureaucracy jungle
            Institutional racism and discrimination
            Relations with external planners
            Lack of access to basic services
          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                               17
Social Participation for Social Development
Unit of measure



                              The Productive Inclusion Framework


          Productive inclusion

          “…capacity building activities to enhance access to formal employment and/
          or improve the quality of productive work and activity that the poor are
          inserted into through self employment, individual, collective self‐employment
          […], family farming. It has social assistance, production chain and territorial
          dimensions” .
                                                          (IPC-IG Flagship Report, Sep 2011)

          Four pillars
               o Extreme Poverty Eradication
               o Reduction in Income Inequality
               o Tackling Gender Inequality
               o Enabling Productive Employment – via policies to foster productive
               inclusion
          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                                           18
Social Participation for Social Development
Unit of measure



                         The Productive Inclusion Framework: The Global Scenario




 Creating jobs is not enough. One must ensure that productive inclusion
 in on the agenda so as these individuals are among the beneficiaries:

          oMore than 600 million people are disabled, many of whom live under the
          poverty line.
          oMore than 33 million live with HIV/AIDS.
          oOver 300 million are indigenous peoples.
          oMore than 2 billion have no access to safe water and sanitation.
          o1.3 billion are without access to electricity.
          oMore than a billion are undernourished.
          oOver 30 million are refugees or displaced people.
          oMore than 1 billion rural poor.



          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                                                19
Unit of measure




                                 Thanks!

                           francisco.filho@ipc-undp.org
                               + 55 61 2105 5000
                               www.ipc-undp.org



                         Photos: Humanizing Development
                           Global Photography Campaign,
                                      IPC-IG



          *   Footnote
Source:       Source                                      20

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Pathways to Inclusive Growth and the Role of Social Participation for Social Development

  • 1. II CONAGESP Public Management National Congress CONFIDENTIAL Pathways to Inclusive Growth and the Role of Social Participation for Social Development Document Date Francisco Filho International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) United Nations Development Programme This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company. This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion. Brasilia, 3 April 2012
  • 2. Pathways for Inclusive Growth Unit of measure Outline First Section - The Mandate and Role of IPC-IG Second Section -The Global South Context Which Development? Inclusive Growth Concepts and Definitions Indicators Policy Innovations for Inclusive Growth Delegates of the VietnamStudy Tour Third Section - Social Participation for Social on Social Inclusion of Ethnic Development Minorities visit favelas in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil The role of participation The Productive Inclusion framework * Footnote Source: Source 2
  • 3. The mandate and role of IPC-IG Unit of measure Vision Produce policy-oriented research and facilitate learning and innovation at the global level on poverty reduction and inclusive growth through:  Global policy dialogue to better reflect the new balance of power and development imperatives of the Global South  Exchange and learning between countries to promote inclusive growth in the South * Footnote Source: Source 3
  • 4. The mandate and role of IPC-IG Unit of measure The Role of Applied Research and Knowledge Production Addressing the Global Knowledge Inequities  Think Tanks Distribution  Global ‘Go-To Think Tanks’ Report 2010  North America and Europe: 57%  USA: 1816  Brazil: 81  South Africa: 85  India: 292  World Impact of Scientific Output 2000-2010 (ISI/Thomsons Reuters)  Brazil:0.62%  India: 0.53 %  South Africa: 0.74 % * Footnote Source: Source 4
  • 5. The mandate Unit of measure and role of IPC-IG Strengthening the voice of the Global South in the development debate Vision Knowledge Management and Advocacy to give voice to a New Development Agenda from the South. Strategic focus areas  Strengthen knowledge management mechanisms for effective policy design and implementation towards inclusive growth  Enhance South-South policy dialogue frameworks that reflect the new balances of power in a changing global governance environment * Footnote Source: Source 5
  • 6. The mandate and role of IPC-IG Unit of measure The Role of Communications and Advocacy for Inclusive Growth  The Poor in the Media: Are development innovations contributing to national policy debate and agenda?  Coverage of the poor by the main daily news programmes under an empowering perspective (percentage of the total time):  Brazil: 7%  South Africa: 9%  Argentina: 13% * Footnote Source: Source 6
  • 7. The Global South Context Unit of measure Which Development? oWhich development? Which logic? Which dimensions of life? The human development approach o Development as freedom: The contributions of AmartyaSen o Making development work for vulnerable/marginalised groups The value of equality Cultural diversity and ethnic richness oTraps: Negative impacts of ‘development’ to vulnerable groups The poor as ‘obstacles’ to development: Exclusion from citizenship and from government policies Assimilation of traditional communities and ‘alien’ development models * Footnote Source: Source 7
  • 8. The Global South Context Unit of measure Inclusive Growth: Concepts and Definitions Ali and Son (2007): (i) an increase in the average opportunities available to the population; and (ii) improvement in the equitability of the distribution of opportunities among the population. Ianchovichina and Lundstrom (2009): “In short, inclusive growth is about raising the pace of growth and enlarging the size of the economy, while leveling the playing field for investment and increasing productive employment opportunities.” Rauniyar and Kanbur (2010): “growth […] accompanied by lower income inequality, so that the increment of income accrues disproportionately to those with lower incomes.” Habito (2010): “GDP growth that leads to significant poverty reduction.” McKinley (2010): “(i) achieving sustainable growth that will create and expand economic opportunities, and (ii) ensuring broader access to these opportunities so that members of society can participate in and benefit from growth.” Klasen (2010): “…in terms of outcome, inclusive growth could be termed ‘disadvantage-reducing’ growth.” * Footnote Source: Source 8
  • 9. The Global South Context Unit of measure IPC-IG’s approach IPC-IG’s work on inclusive growth starts from the premise that societies based on equality tend to perform better in development and that long-term public investments on comprehensive social protection is a necessary condition to achieving sustainable and inclusive growth. A debate from the Global South A policy debate that emerged in the South: India, China, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Turkey Inclusive growth seen as both an outcome and a process, requiring benefit-sharing and participation. * Footnote Source: Source 9
  • 10. The Global South Context Unit of measure Inclusive Growth indicators in selected Emerging Economies Change in the Gini index of the Annual GDP growth 2002-2009 Countries household per capita income in the (% per year) 2000s (%) Argentina 3.7 -15 Brazil 3.7 -9 Chile 4.2 -6 Colombia 4.4 -1 Mexico 2.8 -6 Peru 5.6 -13 Venezuela 4.4 -1 * Footnote Source: Source 10
  • 11. The Global South Context Unit of measure Inclusive Growth indicators in selected Emerging Economies From 1996 to Avg. most Gini Poverty GDP recent: Change Change growth Argentina 2008 -4% 23% 5% Brazil 2008 -9% -54% 6% China 2005 10% -44% 9% Egypt 2008 -16% -30% 3% India 2005 -1% -7% 6% Indonesia 2008 3% -27% 4% S. Africa 2005 4% -99% 3% Thailand 2004 -14% -34% 9% Turkey 2008 -13% -8% 4% Vietnam 2006 13% -51% 7% * Footnote Source: Source 11
  • 12. The Global South Context Unit of measure Inclusive Growth indicators in selected Emerging Economies Government net lending/ Current account GDP Growth Inflation Exchange Rate borrowing balance % consumer prices, % LUC / US$ General Gov, % GDP % GDP 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 Argentina -0.8 9.2 -0.9 10.5 1.0 3.9 -3.6 -1.6 -3.1 0.8 Brazil 4.3 7.5 7.1 5.0 1.8 1.8 -3.4 -2.9 -3.8 -2.3 China 8.4 10.3 0.4 3.3 8.3 6.8 -3.3 -2.3 1.7 5.2 India 5.8 10.1 3.9 12.0 44.9 45.7 -9.9 -8.4 -1.0 -2.6 Indonesia 5.4 6.1 3.8 5.1 8421.8 9090.4 -2.0 -1.2 4.8 0.8 South Africa 4.2 2.8 5.4 4.3 6.9 7.3 -1.5 -5.0 -0.1 -2.8 Turkey 6.8 8.9 55.0 8.6 0.6 1.5 n/a -2.9 -3.7 -6.6 * Footnote Source: Source 12
  • 13. The Global South Context Unit of measure Inclusive Growth indicators in selected Emerging Economies Gini, GDP average growth Poverty (<2US$/day), GDP average growth c. 2006 c. 2006 1996 <35 35-40 40-50 50+ 1996 <10 10-25 25-40 40+ <35 India,6.4% Vietnam,7.3% <10 Malaysia,6.9% 35-40 Egypt,3.2% Indonesia,4.2% Turkey,4.3% China,9.2% 10-25 Thailand,9.1% 40-50 Malaysia,6.9%Argentina,4.5% Brazil,5.9% Turkey,4.3% Mexico,3.8% 25-40 Egypt,3.2% South Africa,3.9% 50+ Thailand,9.1% Brazil,5.9% 40+ Vietnam,7.3% India,6.4% South Africa,3.9% * Footnote Source: Source 13
  • 14. The Global South Context Unit of measure Inclusive Growth indicators in selected Emerging Economies 28% Argentina 8% Turkey India -12% m o n P e a c r f Egypt Indonesia -32% Thailand China U d $ 2 < a S y / ) ( -52% Vietnam Brazil o P e y v r t -72% -92% S. Africa -112% -19% -14% -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% 16% Gini Performance * Footnote Bubble size: GDP growth Source: Source 14
  • 15. The Global South Context Unit of measure Policy Innovations for Inclusive Growth Highlights Engagement with cross sectorial ministries, implementation agencies along with policy think- thanks/public intellectuals to support a change agenda. Shibboleth destruction (e.g. social protection is expensive). Demonstration of political results. Alliances within legislature, judiciary, and collective action groupings. Enabling actions to confront vested interests. Resistance to external imposition of best practices. * Footnote Source: Source 15
  • 16. The Global South Context Unit of measure Policy Innovations for Inclusive Growth The role of cash transfers and public works increasing the investments in human capital through the support families give to their children. n Brazilian Bolsa Família Seeks to promote access to health, education and social assistance; to fight hunger and poverty; and to stimulate N utritio the sustained emancipation of families living in poverty and extreme poverty th Colombian increase the investments by families in extreme Heal Familias en poverty on their children’s human capital – resources Acción conditional to attending school io n Philippine 4P improving human development of extremely Educat poor households - cash grants to households with pregnant women or children Mexican enhance the opportunities of social and economic Oportunidades development through the improvement of their education, health and nutrition options Ethiopian PSNP * Footnote fight food insecurity to reduce household s’ Source: Source vulnerability 16
  • 17. Social Participation for Social Development Unit of measure The Role of Participation Participation: ‘There is no social development without social participation’ oFull access to development policy processes Design Implementation Monitoring Evaluation oMain barriers to participation Bureaucracy jungle Institutional racism and discrimination Relations with external planners Lack of access to basic services * Footnote Source: Source 17
  • 18. Social Participation for Social Development Unit of measure The Productive Inclusion Framework Productive inclusion “…capacity building activities to enhance access to formal employment and/ or improve the quality of productive work and activity that the poor are inserted into through self employment, individual, collective self‐employment […], family farming. It has social assistance, production chain and territorial dimensions” . (IPC-IG Flagship Report, Sep 2011) Four pillars o Extreme Poverty Eradication o Reduction in Income Inequality o Tackling Gender Inequality o Enabling Productive Employment – via policies to foster productive inclusion * Footnote Source: Source 18
  • 19. Social Participation for Social Development Unit of measure The Productive Inclusion Framework: The Global Scenario Creating jobs is not enough. One must ensure that productive inclusion in on the agenda so as these individuals are among the beneficiaries: oMore than 600 million people are disabled, many of whom live under the poverty line. oMore than 33 million live with HIV/AIDS. oOver 300 million are indigenous peoples. oMore than 2 billion have no access to safe water and sanitation. o1.3 billion are without access to electricity. oMore than a billion are undernourished. oOver 30 million are refugees or displaced people. oMore than 1 billion rural poor. * Footnote Source: Source 19
  • 20. Unit of measure Thanks! francisco.filho@ipc-undp.org + 55 61 2105 5000 www.ipc-undp.org Photos: Humanizing Development Global Photography Campaign, IPC-IG * Footnote Source: Source 20