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Property Times
                                Kuala Lumpur Q1 2011
               Economy slows but market remains steady


    11 April 2011                               The Malaysian economy in Q4 2010 expanded at a slower rate of
                                                 4.8% year-on-year (YOY) after growing 5.3% in Q3 2010 to end
                                                 the year with growth of 7.2%. The slower growth in Q4 2010 was
    Contents                                     a result of lower external demand for Malaysian goods and
    Executive summary                1
                                                 services.
    Economic overview                2
    Offices                          3          Prime office rents moved upwards slightly in Q1 2011 but
    Retail                           4           continue to be under pressure, with the anticipation of substantial
    Residential                      5           developments in the supply pipeline (Figure 1).
    Investment                       6
    Key statistics                   7
    Definitions                      8          The retail market continues to be active but the increase in
    Contacts                         9           inflation could dampen consumer spending. Nevertheless, the
                                                 sector remains optimistic with forecast retail sales growth of 11%
    Authors                                      in Q1 2011.

    Brian Koh                                   The residential sector saw optimism reflected in higher prices,
    Executive Director                           but also caution due to declining affordability. With prices and
    Consulting & Research                        affordability moving in different directions, the sector may enter
    brian_koh@dtz.com.my
                                                 into an uncertain patch before settling into a more discernible
    Halimah Mohamad                              trend.
    Senior Manager
    Consulting & Research                       The investment market may be affected by political turmoil in the
    halimah_nor@dtz.com.my                       Middle East on certain proposed joint ventures involving funding
                                                 from that region.

    Contacts
    Chua Chor Hoon                           Figure 4
    Head of SEA Research                     Average prime office gross rents
    chorhoon_chua@dtz.com.sg
                                                       RM per sq ft per month
    Ong Choon Fah                                  7
    Head of Consulting & Research,
    SEA                                            6
    choonfah_ong@dtz.com.sg
                                                   5
    David Green-Morgan
    Head of Asia Pacific Research                  4
    david.green-morgan@dtz.com                     3
    Tony McGough                                   2
    Global Head of Forecasting &
    Strategy Research                              1
    tony.mcgough@dtz.com
                                                   0
                                                         2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
    Hans Vrensen
    Global Head of Research
    hans.vrensen@dtz.com
                                             Source: DTZ Research



www.dtz.com                                                                                                            1
Economic overview




   Malaysia’s economy registered slower growth of            Figure 2
    4.8% year-on-year (YOY) in Q4 2010, after 5.3% and
                                                              GDP growth and unemployment rate
    8.9% growth in Q3 and Q2 2010 respectively (Figure
    2). According to Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), the                  %
    growth in Q4 2010 was driven by expansion in                12
    domestic demand with slower growth in external              10
    demand.                                                       8
                                                                  6
   In Q4 2010, most sectors maintained their positive            4
    growth with the manufacturing and service sectors             2
    continuing to be the drivers, both expanding by 6.2%          0
    YOY respectively. The agricultural sector registered a       -2   Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10
    contraction of 4.3% due to a decline in the production       -4
    of crude oil. The mining sector shrank by 1.3%.              -6
                                                                 -8

   Overall, the full year growth for 2010 is 7.2%,                           GDP growth (YOY)                         Unemployment rate

    compared to the contraction of 1.7% in 2009.              Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia, DTZ Research


   The economy is expected to slow in 2011 to 5-6% in
    line with the global trend. The Malaysian Institute of
    Economic Research (MIER) has forecasted the
    economic growth for 2011 to be 5.2%.

   With the recent reduction in subsidies for petrol and
    other essential goods, inflation is likely to increase
    this year although the improving strength of the
    Ringgit will moderate prices of imported goods. The
    inflation rate of Malaysia was last reported at 2.9% in
    February 2011.

   Foreign Direct Investment for 2010 has improved
    with a total of RM21.4bn compared to RM5.7bn for
    the whole of 2009.

   The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) has remained at
    2.75% since August 2010 but liquidity has been
    reduced. Bank Negara will continue to pursue an
    accommodative monetary policy so as to be
    appropriate and consistent with the assessment of
    growth and inflation prospects.

   An additional nine Entry Point Projects (EPP) was
    implemented in March 2011 under the RM30bn
    Economic Transformation Plan (ETP).

   In June, a new financial sector blueprint will enhance
    the capacity and capability of the sector to serve the
    needs of a high-income economy.

   With the earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan,
    and the current political turmoil in the Middle East,
    the Malaysian economy could see greater external
    uncertainty in manufacturing exports and tourism.




www.dtz.com                                                                                                                                   2
Offices




   During the quarter, 240,000 sq ft was added to the            Figure 3
    office stock in Kuala Lumpur with the completion of
                                                                  Office net absorption and vacancy rate
    Hampshire Place.
                                                                                   sq ft                                                                     %
                                                                                  (000s)                                                                         15
   Enquires for office space in KL was buoyant in the               1,000                                                                                       14
    quarter but it is still a tenant’s market. As a result, the                                                                                                  13
    overall occupancy rate of office buildings in Kuala                                                                                                          12
                                                                       500
    Lumpur increased marginally from 86.4% in Q4 2010                                                                                                            11
    to 86.9% in Q1 2011 (Figure 3).                                                                                                                              10
                                                                                                                                                                 9
                                                                           0
                                                                                                                                                                 8
   Average prime office rents, however, increased from




                                                                                 Q1 09

                                                                                          Q2 09

                                                                                                     Q3 09

                                                                                                             Q4 09

                                                                                                                     Q1 10

                                                                                                                              Q2 10

                                                                                                                                      Q3 10

                                                                                                                                                 Q4 10

                                                                                                                                                         Q1 11
                                                                                                                                                                 7
    RM5.97 per sq ft per month in Q4 2010 to RM6.12                                                                                                              6
                                                                      -500
    per sq ft per month in Q1 2011 as some existing                                                                                                              5
    prime buildings reported higher occupancies                                                                                                                  4
    although this may be temporary with more new                    -1,000                                                                                       3
    supply coming in the later part of the year (Figure 4).
                                                                                         Net absorption (LHS)                Vacancy rate (RHS)

   There is approximately 13.24 million sq ft of new             Source: DTZ Research

    office space in the pipeline between 2011 and 2014,
    the majority of which is scheduled for completion in          Figure 4
    2012 (Figure 5).
                                                                  Average prime office gross rents
   KL Eco City is expected to be launched for sale in                     RM per sq ft per month
    early Q2 2011 with stratified boutique offices and                 7
    office towers, bringing around two million sq ft of                6
    office space into the market in three to five years’               5
    time.
                                                                       4

   The sale of strata titled office space seem to be                  3
    picking up, both in the city centre as well as suburban            2
    projects, with strong response to launches and                     1
    developers continuing to be optimistic. A major
                                                                       0
    prime office, Q Sentral at KL Sentral, was soft                          2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
    launched for sale at an indicative price of RM1,400
    per sq ft.
                                                                  Source: DTZ Research
   An immediate effect noted from the EPP under the oil
    and gas sector is tenants in this industry expanding
    their office space requirement.                               Figure 5

                                                                  Office development pipeline
   The outlook for the sector is likely to remain soft in
    the next few years as it will take time to increase
    demand with these new initiatives while there is a
                                                                   2014
    substantial amount of new supply coming up, most of
    which is of a speculative nature.                              2013

                                                                   2012

                                                                    2011                                                                                 sq ft (000s)

                                                                           0                      2000               4000                     6000               8000

                                                                       Prime: GT                                         Prime: CCA
                                                                       Prime: decentralized area                         Secondary: GT
                                                                       Secondary: decentralized area
                                                                  Source: DTZ Research




www.dtz.com                                                                                                                                                           3
Retail




   With consumer sentiment on a high over much of last      Table 1
    year, retail sales for the whole of 2010 exceeded
    initial projections, with growth of 8.4% for the whole   Existing retail stock (NLA)
    year and 8.5% for Q4 2010. Retailers remain
                                                                                                               Q4 2010                   QOQ
    optimistic that Q1 2011 sales will grow at about 11%
                                                                                                               (sq ft)                   change (%)
    with the Lunar New Year falling within this period.
                                                             Kuala Lumpur                                      20,973,519                0
   Occupancy remains at a high and stable level of 87%
                                                             Outside Kuala Lumpur                              20,662,992                0
    whilst no substantial movement was noted for rental
                                                             Source: DTZ Research
    rates of most malls. However, Sunway Pyramid
    Shopping Mall reported a double-digit increase in
    rents of 17.1% on lease renewals in the Q4 2010
    whilst Subang Parade reported a 2%decline over the       Figure 6
    same period.
                                                             Retail new supply (NLA)
   No new space was added in the quarter with the                               sq ft
                                                             3,500              (000s)
    existing stock staying at around 41.64 million for
    Klang Valley (Table 1) and the potential supply          3,000
    remaining the same as in the previous quarter with       2,500
    most them coming in 2011 (Figure 6 & Table 2).           2,000

   Inflation continued to be a concern with the             1,500

    Consumer Price Index increasing to 2.4% in               1,000
    January, and will have an impact on the real disposal      500
    income of households. With a higher global
                                                                  0
    inflationary rate as a phenomenon, the appreciation
                                                                         2006


                                                                                    2007


                                                                                             2008


                                                                                                     2009


                                                                                                              2010


                                                                                                                        2011


                                                                                                                                  2012


                                                                                                                                             2013


                                                                                                                                                    2014
    of the Ringgit may not be able to mitigate rising the
    cost of imports.
                                                                                           Completed supply          New supply
   The continued Governmental efforts to control credit     Source: DTZ Research
    card delinquency and tighten issuance will also
    impose a negative impact on retail sales, whilst
                                                             Table 2
    slower tourist inflows from the Middle East and Japan
    given recent events will have an adverse impact in       Upcoming retail centres in 2011
    the coming months.
                                                             Name of development                    Est NLA (sq ft)               Location
   The performance of malls is likely to be mixed going     1 Shamelin                             420,000                       Cheras, KL
    forward, with selective prime malls continuing to out-
    perform although at a slower pace than before. The       Citta Mall                             424,000                       Ara Damansara
    rest, especially suburban malls, will be subject to      Festival Mall                          450,000                       Setapak
    stronger competitive forces fragmenting their market
    shares and resulting in flat rental growth.              Intermark                              200,000                       Jalan Ampang
                                                                                                                                  Solaris Mont’
                                                             Solaris 2                              300,000
                                                                                                                                  Kiara
                                                             Suria KLCC
                                                                                                    140,000                       KLCC
                                                             (Extension)
                                                             Viva Home                              688,000                       Jalan Loke Yew
                                                             Source: DTZ Research




www.dtz.com                                                                                                                                                4
Residential




   The residential market entered the new year with           Figure 7
    both optimism as well as caution, with escalating
                                                               Rents and capital values of prime condominiums in
    prices for new launches but declining affordability, at
                                                               Kuala Lumpur
    least for the average house buyer. Developers are
    generally optimistic with planned new launches. With       700        RM per sq ft                                      RM per sq ft per month 5

    prices and affordability moving in different directions,   600
    the market may enter into an uncertain patch before                                                                                                         4
                                                               500
    settling into a more discernible trend.
                                                               400                                                                                              3

   Higher land prices and construction cost escalations       300                                                                                              2
    are major drivers of higher prices supported by the
                                                               200
    continued ample liquidity and low interest                                                                                                                  1
    environment. It remains to be seen if the latest           100
    revisions on finance margin on third property and a           0                                                                                             0
    reduction in banking liquidity through the increase in



                                                                          2005


                                                                                  2006


                                                                                            2007


                                                                                                    2008


                                                                                                           2009


                                                                                                                   Q1 10


                                                                                                                           Q2 10


                                                                                                                                        Q3 10


                                                                                                                                                Q4 10


                                                                                                                                                        Q1 11
    statutory reserve will rein in runaway prices.
                                                                                   Capital values (LHS)                            Rents (RHS)
   With more completions of condominiums in the KLCC          Source: DTZ Research
    area, the situation is turning into a tenant’s market,
    especially for the larger units. There is also ample       Table 3
    supply of units available in the secondary market with
    owners now able to transact freely unlike when the         Upcoming high end condominiums in Kuala Lumpur
    projects are under construction. A recent survey of        in 2011
    completed projects around the KLCC area revealed
    that occupancy ranged from a low of about 10% to a         Project                                                             Units
    high of 80%, with an average of 56%, an issue that         1 Sentul                                                            284
    investors should be wary of.
                                                               Clearwater Residences                                               108
   Capital values are relatively stable at an average of      Kiara 3                                                             160
    RM603 per sq ft with KLCC properties averaging             Kiara 9                                                             192
    RM910 per sq ft (Figure 7). The Caper at Sentul, an
    old suburb being rejuvenated, was soft launched by         Sunway Palazzio (Block A)                                           80
    YTL Land late in March at an average price of              Source: DTZ Research

    RM600 per sq ft. It set a new benchmark for Sentul
    and was reported to have good response.                    Figure 8

   Amongst the expected completions for first half of         Future supply of prime condominiums in Kuala
    2011 include 1 Sentul, Clearwater Residences and           Lumpur
    Kiara 3 (Table 3) and the future supply are mostly                    units
    outside the city centre in 2011 (Figure 8).                5,000
                                                               4,500
                                                               4,000
   Demand will continue to be relatively selective, with
                                                               3,500
    strong latent demand building up for more affordable
                                                               3,000
    properties in the more established suburbs. The            2,500
    proposed billion ringgit Mass Rapid Transit (MRT)          2,000
    project would hopefully enable sites located further       1,500
    off the city centre to benefit by offering affordable      1,000
    homes, given their lower land costs.                         500
                                                                      0
                                                                                         2011                     2012                          Post 2012
                                                                                          City centre                 Outside city centre
                                                               Source: DTZ Research




www.dtz.com                                                                                                                                                         5
Investment




    Investment volumes dropped marginally by 2%from                   development joint ventures for foreign investors
     Q4 2010 to RM1.4bn in Q1 2011. Q4 2010 saw a                      which in the past were relatively scarce, given
     major deal of RM651.8m when CapitaMall Asia                       developers’ access to ample liquidity.
     Limited announced the purchase of Queenbay Mall,
     Penang from the CP Group (Figure 9). With this                   Given the political turmoil in the Middle East, the
     acquisition, CapitaLand and its related entities now              impact on Malaysia is still uncertain. Some major
     control the two major retail centres in Penang, which             announced or committed deals may be aborted or
     include the Gurney Plaza.                                         delayed, whilst there could be a greater flow of hot
                                                                       money toward Malaysia as a safe haven. However,
    Reflecting a retail focus in recent months, IGB                   this event will add more uncertainties, and with the
     announced that it will inject The Gardens @                       recent earthquake in Japan, add more challenges to
     Midvalley into KrisAsset, a majority controlled entity            the local economic growth which still depends on
     at an indicative price of RM820m or approximately                 exports to a large extent.
     RM998 per sq ft, whilst Pramerica is looking to exit
     the market for one of its older retail funds, and                Nevertheless, under the ETP, domestic investment is
     inviting offers on its three malls located in Klang, Ipoh         expected to drive the projects. Thus implementation
     and Seremban. We also noted the purchase of 72                    of the EPPs is not expected to be affected at this
     strata retail lots within a proposed mixed                        point in time.
     development, One South, for RM105m at Sungei
     Besi by South Crest Synergy (Table 4).                       Figure 9

                                                                  Total investment sales in Malaysia
    Two office buildings were reported to be sold during
                                                                                    RM (000s)
     the quarter, with prices achieved at between RM550-
     650 per sq ft. One of them is the proposed Oilcorp            8,000
     Amanah Tower, which was sold to Tenaga Nasional               7,000
     Berhad (TNB), the national electricity company, for           6,000
     RM554 per sq ft. The yield achieved is estimated to           5,000
     be in the range of 6.4-7.0%.
                                                                   4,000
                                                                   3,000
    The Government Linked Investment Companies
     continue to be hungry for domestic real estate assets         2,000
     that meet their investment criteria for longer term           1,000
     leases and to utilise allocated funds for the real                0
     estate sector.
                                                                            Q1 08

                                                                                      Q2 08

                                                                                              Q3 08

                                                                                                      Q4 08

                                                                                                              Q1 09

                                                                                                                      Q2 09

                                                                                                                                Q3 09

                                                                                                                                        Q4 09

                                                                                                                                                Q1 10

                                                                                                                                                        Q2 10

                                                                                                                                                                Q3 10

                                                                                                                                                                        Q4 10

                                                                                                                                                                                Q1 11
    With several major greenfield projects being                 Source: DTZ Research
     implemented in the near future, which include KL
     Eco-City, redevelopment of the former Pudu Jail, KL
     International Financial Centre (KLIFC), and Sungai
     Besi Airport, there will be opportunities for

Table 4

Significant deals
Property                          Purchaser                      Vendor                                                       Price
The Ritz Garden Hotel, KL         Leopard Holdings Bhd           GSB Group Bhd                                                RM22m
One South strata lots, KL         South Crest Synergy Sdn Bhd    Hua Yang Bhd                                                 RM105m
Oilcorp Amanah Tower , KL         Tenaga Nasional Berhad         Magic Coast Sdn Bhd                                          RM233m
The Gardens Mall, KL              Krisassets Holding Bhd         IGB Corporation Bhd                                          RM820m
Source: DTZ Research




www.dtz.com                                                                                                                                                                             6
Key statistics




Table 5

Markets
                                                                                      QOQ         YOY
                                  Q1     Q2        Q3          Q4          Q1         change      change   Directional
                                  2010   2010      2010        2010        2011                            outlook
                                                                                      (%)         (%)
Office
Net absorption (000s sq ft)       118    414       790         426         509        19.0        431.4    ◄►
Occupancy rate (%)                87.2   87.9      87.1        86.4        86.9       0.6         -0.3     ◄►
New supply (000s sq ft)           -      -         1,437       -           240        N/A         N/A      ▲
Prime rents (RM per sq ft per
                                  6.02   6.00      5.98        5.97        6.12       2.5         1.7      ◄►
month)
Residential (non-landed resale)
Average capital value of prime
                                  569    552       600         599         603        0.67        5.98     ◄►
condominiums (RM per sq ft)
Source: DTZ Research




Table 6

Leasing transactions
Address                                         Size (sq ft)         Tenant                                Sector
Gardens North, Kuala Lumpur                        3,597             MyBiz Solutions Sdn Bhd               Office
Menara TM, Kuala Lumpur                           25,000             Cargill (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd            Office
Symphony House, Petaling Jaya                     11,039             Eli Lilly (M) Sdn Bhd                 Office
Source: DTZ Research




www.dtz.com                                                                                                         7
Definitions




Development pipeline
Comprises two elements:
   1. Floorspace in the course of development,
       defined as buildings being constructed or
       comprehensively refurbished.
   2. Schemes with the potential to be built in the
       future, though having secured planning
       permission/development certification.

Net absorption
The change in total occupied floorspace over a specified
period of time, either positive or negative.

New supply
Total floorspace which is ready for occupation either
now or within the next 6 months. Ready for occupation
means practical completion, where either the building
has been issued with an occupancy permit, where
required, or where only fit-out is lacking.

Prelet/pre-commit
A development leased or sold prior to completion.

Prime rent
The highest rent that could be achieved for a typical
building/unit of the highest quality and specification in
the best location to a tenant with a good (i.e. secure)
covenant.

(NB. This is a gross rent, including service charge or tax,
and is based on a standard lease, excluding exceptional
deals for that particular market.)

Stock
Total accommodation in the commercial and public
sectors both occupied and vacant.

Take-up
Floorspace acquired for occupation, including the
following:
     1. offices let/sold to an eventual occupier;
     2. developments pre-let/sold to an occupier;
     3. owner occupier purchase of a freehold or long
        leasehold.

(NB. This includes subleases.)

Occupancy rates
The percentage of total net lettable area/units occupied
with available stock.




www.dtz.com                                                   8
Contacts




Consulting & Research
Brian Koh                      +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 800   brian_koh@dtz.com.my
Halimah Mohd Nor               +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 814   halimah_nor@dtz.com.my
Markanah Hj Mat Taib           +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 813   markanah_taib@dtz.com.my


Global Corporate Services
Chua Wei Lin                   +60 (0)3 2161 7228           weilin_chua@dtz.com.sg
Yasmine Mohd Zamirdin          +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 612   yasmine_zamirdin@dtz.com.my
Chintan Mithalwala             +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 610   chintan_mithalwala@dtz.com.my


Investment
Brian Koh                      +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 800   brian_koh@dtz.com.my
Sr Low Han Hoe                 +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 202   hanhoe_low@dtz.com.my
Peter Chew Lye Sing            +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 810   peter_chew@dtz.com.my
Tony DeCosta                   +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 811   tony_decosta@dtz.com.my


Property Management
Sr Adzman Shah Mohd Ariffin    +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 400   adzmanshah@dtz.com.my
Mohd Azhan Che Mat             +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 412   mohd_azhan@dtz.com.my


Residential
Eddy Wong                      +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 550   eddy_wong@dtz.com.my
Chong Yen Yee                  +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 551   yenyee_chong@dtz.com.my
Alex Loo Chon How              +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 558   alex_loo@dtz.com.my


Retail
Ungku Suseelawati Ungku Omar   +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 300   suseela@dtz.com.my
Joseph Cheah                   +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 321   joseph_cheah@dtz.com.my
Susan Yew                      +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 310   susan_yew@dtz.com.my


Valuation
Sr Adzman Shah Mohd Ariffin    +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 400   adzmanshah@dtz.com.my
Sr Azmi Hj Omar                +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 200   azmi_omar@dtz.com.my
Hanafi Abd Rahman              +60 (0)3 2161 7227 ext 204   hanafi_rahman@dtz.com.my




www.dtz.com                                                                               9
Disclaimer
              This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without
              seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously
              checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of
              any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not,
              in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any
              such reproduction should be credited to DTZ.


              © DTZ April 2011




www.dtz.com

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DTZ Property Times Kuala Lumpur, Q1 2011

  • 1. Property Times Kuala Lumpur Q1 2011 Economy slows but market remains steady 11 April 2011  The Malaysian economy in Q4 2010 expanded at a slower rate of 4.8% year-on-year (YOY) after growing 5.3% in Q3 2010 to end the year with growth of 7.2%. The slower growth in Q4 2010 was Contents a result of lower external demand for Malaysian goods and Executive summary 1 services. Economic overview 2 Offices 3  Prime office rents moved upwards slightly in Q1 2011 but Retail 4 continue to be under pressure, with the anticipation of substantial Residential 5 developments in the supply pipeline (Figure 1). Investment 6 Key statistics 7 Definitions 8  The retail market continues to be active but the increase in Contacts 9 inflation could dampen consumer spending. Nevertheless, the sector remains optimistic with forecast retail sales growth of 11% Authors in Q1 2011. Brian Koh  The residential sector saw optimism reflected in higher prices, Executive Director but also caution due to declining affordability. With prices and Consulting & Research affordability moving in different directions, the sector may enter brian_koh@dtz.com.my into an uncertain patch before settling into a more discernible Halimah Mohamad trend. Senior Manager Consulting & Research  The investment market may be affected by political turmoil in the halimah_nor@dtz.com.my Middle East on certain proposed joint ventures involving funding from that region. Contacts Chua Chor Hoon Figure 4 Head of SEA Research Average prime office gross rents chorhoon_chua@dtz.com.sg RM per sq ft per month Ong Choon Fah 7 Head of Consulting & Research, SEA 6 choonfah_ong@dtz.com.sg 5 David Green-Morgan Head of Asia Pacific Research 4 david.green-morgan@dtz.com 3 Tony McGough 2 Global Head of Forecasting & Strategy Research 1 tony.mcgough@dtz.com 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Hans Vrensen Global Head of Research hans.vrensen@dtz.com Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com 1
  • 2. Economic overview  Malaysia’s economy registered slower growth of Figure 2 4.8% year-on-year (YOY) in Q4 2010, after 5.3% and GDP growth and unemployment rate 8.9% growth in Q3 and Q2 2010 respectively (Figure 2). According to Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), the % growth in Q4 2010 was driven by expansion in 12 domestic demand with slower growth in external 10 demand. 8 6  In Q4 2010, most sectors maintained their positive 4 growth with the manufacturing and service sectors 2 continuing to be the drivers, both expanding by 6.2% 0 YOY respectively. The agricultural sector registered a -2 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 contraction of 4.3% due to a decline in the production -4 of crude oil. The mining sector shrank by 1.3%. -6 -8  Overall, the full year growth for 2010 is 7.2%, GDP growth (YOY) Unemployment rate compared to the contraction of 1.7% in 2009. Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia, DTZ Research  The economy is expected to slow in 2011 to 5-6% in line with the global trend. The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) has forecasted the economic growth for 2011 to be 5.2%.  With the recent reduction in subsidies for petrol and other essential goods, inflation is likely to increase this year although the improving strength of the Ringgit will moderate prices of imported goods. The inflation rate of Malaysia was last reported at 2.9% in February 2011.  Foreign Direct Investment for 2010 has improved with a total of RM21.4bn compared to RM5.7bn for the whole of 2009.  The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) has remained at 2.75% since August 2010 but liquidity has been reduced. Bank Negara will continue to pursue an accommodative monetary policy so as to be appropriate and consistent with the assessment of growth and inflation prospects.  An additional nine Entry Point Projects (EPP) was implemented in March 2011 under the RM30bn Economic Transformation Plan (ETP).  In June, a new financial sector blueprint will enhance the capacity and capability of the sector to serve the needs of a high-income economy.  With the earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan, and the current political turmoil in the Middle East, the Malaysian economy could see greater external uncertainty in manufacturing exports and tourism. www.dtz.com 2
  • 3. Offices  During the quarter, 240,000 sq ft was added to the Figure 3 office stock in Kuala Lumpur with the completion of Office net absorption and vacancy rate Hampshire Place. sq ft % (000s) 15  Enquires for office space in KL was buoyant in the 1,000 14 quarter but it is still a tenant’s market. As a result, the 13 overall occupancy rate of office buildings in Kuala 12 500 Lumpur increased marginally from 86.4% in Q4 2010 11 to 86.9% in Q1 2011 (Figure 3). 10 9 0 8  Average prime office rents, however, increased from Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 7 RM5.97 per sq ft per month in Q4 2010 to RM6.12 6 -500 per sq ft per month in Q1 2011 as some existing 5 prime buildings reported higher occupancies 4 although this may be temporary with more new -1,000 3 supply coming in the later part of the year (Figure 4). Net absorption (LHS) Vacancy rate (RHS)  There is approximately 13.24 million sq ft of new Source: DTZ Research office space in the pipeline between 2011 and 2014, the majority of which is scheduled for completion in Figure 4 2012 (Figure 5). Average prime office gross rents  KL Eco City is expected to be launched for sale in RM per sq ft per month early Q2 2011 with stratified boutique offices and 7 office towers, bringing around two million sq ft of 6 office space into the market in three to five years’ 5 time. 4  The sale of strata titled office space seem to be 3 picking up, both in the city centre as well as suburban 2 projects, with strong response to launches and 1 developers continuing to be optimistic. A major 0 prime office, Q Sentral at KL Sentral, was soft 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 launched for sale at an indicative price of RM1,400 per sq ft. Source: DTZ Research  An immediate effect noted from the EPP under the oil and gas sector is tenants in this industry expanding their office space requirement. Figure 5 Office development pipeline  The outlook for the sector is likely to remain soft in the next few years as it will take time to increase demand with these new initiatives while there is a 2014 substantial amount of new supply coming up, most of which is of a speculative nature. 2013 2012 2011 sq ft (000s) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 Prime: GT Prime: CCA Prime: decentralized area Secondary: GT Secondary: decentralized area Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com 3
  • 4. Retail  With consumer sentiment on a high over much of last Table 1 year, retail sales for the whole of 2010 exceeded initial projections, with growth of 8.4% for the whole Existing retail stock (NLA) year and 8.5% for Q4 2010. Retailers remain Q4 2010 QOQ optimistic that Q1 2011 sales will grow at about 11% (sq ft) change (%) with the Lunar New Year falling within this period. Kuala Lumpur 20,973,519 0  Occupancy remains at a high and stable level of 87% Outside Kuala Lumpur 20,662,992 0 whilst no substantial movement was noted for rental Source: DTZ Research rates of most malls. However, Sunway Pyramid Shopping Mall reported a double-digit increase in rents of 17.1% on lease renewals in the Q4 2010 whilst Subang Parade reported a 2%decline over the Figure 6 same period. Retail new supply (NLA)  No new space was added in the quarter with the sq ft 3,500 (000s) existing stock staying at around 41.64 million for Klang Valley (Table 1) and the potential supply 3,000 remaining the same as in the previous quarter with 2,500 most them coming in 2011 (Figure 6 & Table 2). 2,000  Inflation continued to be a concern with the 1,500 Consumer Price Index increasing to 2.4% in 1,000 January, and will have an impact on the real disposal 500 income of households. With a higher global 0 inflationary rate as a phenomenon, the appreciation 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 of the Ringgit may not be able to mitigate rising the cost of imports. Completed supply New supply  The continued Governmental efforts to control credit Source: DTZ Research card delinquency and tighten issuance will also impose a negative impact on retail sales, whilst Table 2 slower tourist inflows from the Middle East and Japan given recent events will have an adverse impact in Upcoming retail centres in 2011 the coming months. Name of development Est NLA (sq ft) Location  The performance of malls is likely to be mixed going 1 Shamelin 420,000 Cheras, KL forward, with selective prime malls continuing to out- perform although at a slower pace than before. The Citta Mall 424,000 Ara Damansara rest, especially suburban malls, will be subject to Festival Mall 450,000 Setapak stronger competitive forces fragmenting their market shares and resulting in flat rental growth. Intermark 200,000 Jalan Ampang Solaris Mont’ Solaris 2 300,000 Kiara Suria KLCC 140,000 KLCC (Extension) Viva Home 688,000 Jalan Loke Yew Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com 4
  • 5. Residential  The residential market entered the new year with Figure 7 both optimism as well as caution, with escalating Rents and capital values of prime condominiums in prices for new launches but declining affordability, at Kuala Lumpur least for the average house buyer. Developers are generally optimistic with planned new launches. With 700 RM per sq ft RM per sq ft per month 5 prices and affordability moving in different directions, 600 the market may enter into an uncertain patch before 4 500 settling into a more discernible trend. 400 3  Higher land prices and construction cost escalations 300 2 are major drivers of higher prices supported by the 200 continued ample liquidity and low interest 1 environment. It remains to be seen if the latest 100 revisions on finance margin on third property and a 0 0 reduction in banking liquidity through the increase in 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 statutory reserve will rein in runaway prices. Capital values (LHS) Rents (RHS)  With more completions of condominiums in the KLCC Source: DTZ Research area, the situation is turning into a tenant’s market, especially for the larger units. There is also ample Table 3 supply of units available in the secondary market with owners now able to transact freely unlike when the Upcoming high end condominiums in Kuala Lumpur projects are under construction. A recent survey of in 2011 completed projects around the KLCC area revealed that occupancy ranged from a low of about 10% to a Project Units high of 80%, with an average of 56%, an issue that 1 Sentul 284 investors should be wary of. Clearwater Residences 108  Capital values are relatively stable at an average of Kiara 3 160 RM603 per sq ft with KLCC properties averaging Kiara 9 192 RM910 per sq ft (Figure 7). The Caper at Sentul, an old suburb being rejuvenated, was soft launched by Sunway Palazzio (Block A) 80 YTL Land late in March at an average price of Source: DTZ Research RM600 per sq ft. It set a new benchmark for Sentul and was reported to have good response. Figure 8  Amongst the expected completions for first half of Future supply of prime condominiums in Kuala 2011 include 1 Sentul, Clearwater Residences and Lumpur Kiara 3 (Table 3) and the future supply are mostly units outside the city centre in 2011 (Figure 8). 5,000 4,500 4,000  Demand will continue to be relatively selective, with 3,500 strong latent demand building up for more affordable 3,000 properties in the more established suburbs. The 2,500 proposed billion ringgit Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) 2,000 project would hopefully enable sites located further 1,500 off the city centre to benefit by offering affordable 1,000 homes, given their lower land costs. 500 0 2011 2012 Post 2012 City centre Outside city centre Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com 5
  • 6. Investment  Investment volumes dropped marginally by 2%from development joint ventures for foreign investors Q4 2010 to RM1.4bn in Q1 2011. Q4 2010 saw a which in the past were relatively scarce, given major deal of RM651.8m when CapitaMall Asia developers’ access to ample liquidity. Limited announced the purchase of Queenbay Mall, Penang from the CP Group (Figure 9). With this  Given the political turmoil in the Middle East, the acquisition, CapitaLand and its related entities now impact on Malaysia is still uncertain. Some major control the two major retail centres in Penang, which announced or committed deals may be aborted or include the Gurney Plaza. delayed, whilst there could be a greater flow of hot money toward Malaysia as a safe haven. However,  Reflecting a retail focus in recent months, IGB this event will add more uncertainties, and with the announced that it will inject The Gardens @ recent earthquake in Japan, add more challenges to Midvalley into KrisAsset, a majority controlled entity the local economic growth which still depends on at an indicative price of RM820m or approximately exports to a large extent. RM998 per sq ft, whilst Pramerica is looking to exit the market for one of its older retail funds, and  Nevertheless, under the ETP, domestic investment is inviting offers on its three malls located in Klang, Ipoh expected to drive the projects. Thus implementation and Seremban. We also noted the purchase of 72 of the EPPs is not expected to be affected at this strata retail lots within a proposed mixed point in time. development, One South, for RM105m at Sungei Besi by South Crest Synergy (Table 4). Figure 9 Total investment sales in Malaysia  Two office buildings were reported to be sold during RM (000s) the quarter, with prices achieved at between RM550- 650 per sq ft. One of them is the proposed Oilcorp 8,000 Amanah Tower, which was sold to Tenaga Nasional 7,000 Berhad (TNB), the national electricity company, for 6,000 RM554 per sq ft. The yield achieved is estimated to 5,000 be in the range of 6.4-7.0%. 4,000 3,000  The Government Linked Investment Companies continue to be hungry for domestic real estate assets 2,000 that meet their investment criteria for longer term 1,000 leases and to utilise allocated funds for the real 0 estate sector. Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11  With several major greenfield projects being Source: DTZ Research implemented in the near future, which include KL Eco-City, redevelopment of the former Pudu Jail, KL International Financial Centre (KLIFC), and Sungai Besi Airport, there will be opportunities for Table 4 Significant deals Property Purchaser Vendor Price The Ritz Garden Hotel, KL Leopard Holdings Bhd GSB Group Bhd RM22m One South strata lots, KL South Crest Synergy Sdn Bhd Hua Yang Bhd RM105m Oilcorp Amanah Tower , KL Tenaga Nasional Berhad Magic Coast Sdn Bhd RM233m The Gardens Mall, KL Krisassets Holding Bhd IGB Corporation Bhd RM820m Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com 6
  • 7. Key statistics Table 5 Markets QOQ YOY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 change change Directional 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 outlook (%) (%) Office Net absorption (000s sq ft) 118 414 790 426 509 19.0 431.4 ◄► Occupancy rate (%) 87.2 87.9 87.1 86.4 86.9 0.6 -0.3 ◄► New supply (000s sq ft) - - 1,437 - 240 N/A N/A ▲ Prime rents (RM per sq ft per 6.02 6.00 5.98 5.97 6.12 2.5 1.7 ◄► month) Residential (non-landed resale) Average capital value of prime 569 552 600 599 603 0.67 5.98 ◄► condominiums (RM per sq ft) Source: DTZ Research Table 6 Leasing transactions Address Size (sq ft) Tenant Sector Gardens North, Kuala Lumpur 3,597 MyBiz Solutions Sdn Bhd Office Menara TM, Kuala Lumpur 25,000 Cargill (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd Office Symphony House, Petaling Jaya 11,039 Eli Lilly (M) Sdn Bhd Office Source: DTZ Research www.dtz.com 7
  • 8. Definitions Development pipeline Comprises two elements: 1. Floorspace in the course of development, defined as buildings being constructed or comprehensively refurbished. 2. Schemes with the potential to be built in the future, though having secured planning permission/development certification. Net absorption The change in total occupied floorspace over a specified period of time, either positive or negative. New supply Total floorspace which is ready for occupation either now or within the next 6 months. Ready for occupation means practical completion, where either the building has been issued with an occupancy permit, where required, or where only fit-out is lacking. Prelet/pre-commit A development leased or sold prior to completion. Prime rent The highest rent that could be achieved for a typical building/unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location to a tenant with a good (i.e. secure) covenant. (NB. This is a gross rent, including service charge or tax, and is based on a standard lease, excluding exceptional deals for that particular market.) Stock Total accommodation in the commercial and public sectors both occupied and vacant. Take-up Floorspace acquired for occupation, including the following: 1. offices let/sold to an eventual occupier; 2. developments pre-let/sold to an occupier; 3. owner occupier purchase of a freehold or long leasehold. (NB. This includes subleases.) Occupancy rates The percentage of total net lettable area/units occupied with available stock. www.dtz.com 8
  • 9. Contacts Consulting & Research Brian Koh +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 800 brian_koh@dtz.com.my Halimah Mohd Nor +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 814 halimah_nor@dtz.com.my Markanah Hj Mat Taib +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 813 markanah_taib@dtz.com.my Global Corporate Services Chua Wei Lin +60 (0)3 2161 7228 weilin_chua@dtz.com.sg Yasmine Mohd Zamirdin +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 612 yasmine_zamirdin@dtz.com.my Chintan Mithalwala +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 610 chintan_mithalwala@dtz.com.my Investment Brian Koh +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 800 brian_koh@dtz.com.my Sr Low Han Hoe +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 202 hanhoe_low@dtz.com.my Peter Chew Lye Sing +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 810 peter_chew@dtz.com.my Tony DeCosta +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 811 tony_decosta@dtz.com.my Property Management Sr Adzman Shah Mohd Ariffin +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 400 adzmanshah@dtz.com.my Mohd Azhan Che Mat +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 412 mohd_azhan@dtz.com.my Residential Eddy Wong +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 550 eddy_wong@dtz.com.my Chong Yen Yee +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 551 yenyee_chong@dtz.com.my Alex Loo Chon How +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 558 alex_loo@dtz.com.my Retail Ungku Suseelawati Ungku Omar +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 300 suseela@dtz.com.my Joseph Cheah +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 321 joseph_cheah@dtz.com.my Susan Yew +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 310 susan_yew@dtz.com.my Valuation Sr Adzman Shah Mohd Ariffin +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 400 adzmanshah@dtz.com.my Sr Azmi Hj Omar +60 (0)3 2161 7228 ext 200 azmi_omar@dtz.com.my Hanafi Abd Rahman +60 (0)3 2161 7227 ext 204 hanafi_rahman@dtz.com.my www.dtz.com 9
  • 10. Disclaimer This report should not be relied upon as a basis for entering into transactions without seeking specific, qualified, professional advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, DTZ can take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced or referred to without prior approval. Any such reproduction should be credited to DTZ. © DTZ April 2011 www.dtz.com