7. The tribals assess the probability of early warning of flood extent by observing color of
clouds, their location, intensity and frequency of rainfall. The unusual sounds and changes
in water flow, colour of water, direction of wind and the unusual behavior of wildlife like
ants, birds, rats and Snakes also helps in the assessment of climatic variations.
In the prediction that a particular year is likely to be a drought year, the nature of clouds is
described as follows: “There would neither be prosperity nor rain in the land should the
clouds be rough and small, tossed about by the wind have the shape of
camels, corms, dead bodies, monkeys or other inauspicious creatures, and be silent”
The tribals of Rajasthan also have faith in the sayings of elders about the prediction of
weather, for e.g “ Pawan baje Suryo,to hali halav kim puryo” if winds flow in the North –
west direction then farmer should not plough his field because it indicates heavy rains.
8. Indigenous knowledge in seasonal rainfall prediction in Tanzania: A case of the
South-western Highland of Tanzania
Ladislaus B. Chang’a, Pius Z. Yanda and James Ngana
Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 3(4), pp. 66-72, April 2010
9. Indigenous knowledge in seasonal rainfall prediction in Tanzania: A case of the
South-western Highland of Tanzania
Ladislaus B. Chang’a, Pius Z. Yanda and James Ngana
Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 3(4), pp. 66-72, April 2010
10. Indigenous knowledge in seasonal rainfall prediction in Tanzania: A case of the
South-western Highland of Tanzania
Ladislaus B. Chang’a, Pius Z. Yanda and James Ngana
Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 3(4), pp. 66-72, April 2010
14. DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue) episodes based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4
region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based oncentered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years.
For historical purposes cold and warm episodes (blue and red colored numbers) are defined
when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
44. RMSE is the root mean square error
MCC as the mean correlation coefficient
MCE is the mean coefficient of efficiency
MAE is the mean absolute error
MAPE is the mean absolute percentage error