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- 1. Presented by GERRY S. PEDRICO Chief Meteorological Officer PAGASA Davao Station Davao City Global Warming / Climate Change: The Philippine Scenario
- 4. Source: OSTP The Greenhouse Effect
- 6. CARBON DIOXIDE - Burning of Fossil Fuels(Oil,Coal) by Powerplants, Industries and Vehicles Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Gas Carbon dioxide
- 7. Methane - Decomposition of Garbage and Agricultural Waste Materials, Leaks in Coal Mining and Natural Gas Production Accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects Man-Made Sources of Greenhouse Gas Methane
- 12. Source: IPCC TAR 2001 Strong temperature increase since 1975 (unprecedented) Global Average Surface Temperature Has Risen (0.74°C) Over the Past 100 Years
- 13. Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years /decade Source: IPCC 100 0.074 0.018 50 0.128 0.026 Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999, 1990 ,2000
- 25. Manifestations of Climate Change … Melting of Glaciers Arctic sea ice area decreased by 2.7% per decade
- 26. GLOBAL CHANGE: GREENLAND ICEBERGS Greenland's glaciers are melting into the sea twice as fast as the previously believed rate of four miles per year.
- 27. DECREASING ICE THICKNESS: QUELCAYA, PERU
- 29. GLACIER RETREAT: BALAIS, SWITZERLAND
- 30. GLACIER RETREAT: GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, MONTANA
- 31. The Thames Barrier , a major flood defense system in London designed to be used once every two to three years is now being used six times a year due to increased rainfall .
- 32. N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with aircraft surveillance. Global number and percentage of intense hurricanes is increasing North Atlantic hurricanes have increased with SSTs SST (1944-2005) Source: IPCC Marked increase after 1994
- 33. What to expect in the 21 st Century? Phenomenon a and direction of trend Likelihood of continuation of trend based on projections for 21 st century using SRES scenarios Warmer/fewer cold day/nights over most land areas Virtually certain d Warmer/more hot days/nights over most land areas Virtually certain d Warm spells / heat waves. Frequency increases over most land areas Very likely Heavy precipitation events. Frequency (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) increases over most areas Very likely Area affected by droughts increases Likely Number of intense tropical cyclones increases Likely Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excludes tsunamis) Likely
- 35. Hurricanes and Tropical Storms With global warming: more intense hurricanes are likely, but changes in frequency are uncertain.
- 36. So … What does this all mean for the Philippines?
- 39. AREAS OF FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND ANNUAL AVERAGE NUMBER WORLDWIDE AN AVERAGE OF 100 TROPICAL CYCLONES OCCUR ANNUALLY WORLDWIDE; 30 OF WHICH FORM IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA
- 40. 20 15 THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) 120 25 5 115 5 135 135 25
- 42. PHILIPPINE VULNERABILITIES TO GLOBAL WARMING/ CLIMATE CHANGE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO TYPHOONS – LOCATED WITHIN PACIFIC TYPHOON BELT AREA VISITED BY AVERAGE 20 TYPHOONS EVERY YEAR
- 43. LANDSLIDES MUD FLOWS Philippine Vulnerabilities to Climate Change
- 44. SINCE 2003 AT LEAST 3,000 PEOPLE DIED DUE TO LANDSLIDES AND MUD FLOWS .
- 45. HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO GROUND MOVEMENTS (LANDSLIDES, MUDSLIDES, ETC.) SITTING ALONG MAJOR FAULT LINES = FRACTURED ROCKS (GROUND EASILY SATURATED WITH WATER) MOUNTAINOUS TOPOGRAPHY WITH STEEP SLOPES
- 47. THREATEN FOOD SECURITY Primarily Agricultural and Fishing Economy
- 48. A 1 DEGREE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE IN THE TROPICS AGRICULTURAL YIELD DECLINE BY AS MUCH AS 10%
- 49. TEMPERATURE INCREASE BY 2-6 DEGREES DECLINE OF 29%-60% IN PHIL AGRI PRODUCTION WILL DIRECTLY THREATEN FOOD SECURITY, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE PHILIPPINES HAS ONE OF THE HIGHEST POPULATION GROWTH
- 50. El Niño Vulnerability Maps Rice Corn
- 52. WHAT CAN WE ALL DO TO MITIGATE GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE?
- 55. Plant a Tree A single tree will absorb approximately one ton of carbon dioxide during its lifetime. During photosynthesis, trees and other plants absorb carbon dioxide and give off oxygen.
- 56. Activities we can do to help: we already have an efficient rail transit and you may try it
- 58. Activities we can do to help: Invest in projects that can generate carbon credits and generate more revenues reforestation Landfill gas recovery
- 62. Capacity: 24.75 MW (15 WTG @ 1.65 MW) Height of hub : 70 m Cost = US$ 47.6 M Northwind Wind Power Project in Bangui Bay Ilocos Norte STATUS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
- 63. Northwind Wind Power Project in Bangui Bay Ilocos Norte Philippines is now the leading wind energy producer in Southeast Asia Phase 2 (8 MW) On-going
- 64. 1 MW CEPALCO Solar Power Plant STATUS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Milestones of the REPF (2003-2006)
- 65. Our Earth Our Future Our Choice
- 66. THANK YOU and HAVE A NICE DAY
Notas del editor
- The “natural” Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming The “natural” greenhouse effect: The Earth is covered by a blanket of gases which allow light energy from the sun to pass through to the Earth’s surface where it is converted to heat energy. This heat is re-radiated back out to space and some of it is trapped by the gases in the atmosphere. By trapping this outgoing heat, the gases keep the Earth’s surface warm— in much the same way that a blanket keeps us warm underneath it. Water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are the two most abundant natural heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere. These and other gases keep the Earth’s surface about 60°F (33 ° C) warmer than it otherwise would be. Without this natural greenhouse or blanket effect, life as we know it would not be possible. Global warming : Humans have been releasing carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, altering the natural concentration. These gases mix in the atmosphere and warm the Earth by trapping outgoing heat. The more heat-trapping gases we release into the atmosphere, the thicker the heat-trapping “blanket” gets, and the more the globe warms up. [Note on analogies: The “greenhouse” analogy comes from the fact that sunlight goes through the glass of the greenhouse and the heat is trapped inside. In our explanation above we have used the “blanket of heat-trapping gases” analogy, which is often a simpler concept for people to understand.]
- Global Average Temperature Over the past 100 years there has been an increase in global average temperature of more than one degree Fahrenheit (0.6°C). While the record shows a great deal of variability, the upward trend is unambiguous. Most of the warming occurred during two periods, 1910 to 1945 and 1976 to the present. The rate and duration of the 20 th century warming has been much greater than in any of the previous nine centuries (i.e., over the last 1,000 years). Globally, the 1990s has been the warmest decade, and 1998 and 2001 the two warmest years in the last millenium. Night-time minimum air temperatures over land have increased at the greatest rate; this has lengthened the frost-free season in many mid-and high-latitude regions.
- Projected Changes in Precipitation Globally, higher temperatures should lead to higher rainfall, because a warmer climate increases the rate of evaporation and speeds up the hydrologic cycle. Regionally, the outcome is more difficult to predict, especially in the Gulf region, given the many influences on its climate.* Rainfall patterns in the region are likely to become more erratic, with heavy downpours and longer dry periods in between. Intense rainfall events have already increased over the past century For most of the immediate Gulf coastal zone, rainfall will likely be lower. These drier conditions will interact with other global warming impacts, such as sea-level rise, to exacerbate water conditions—for example, contributing to salt water intrusion into underground aquifers. It is not yet clear whether upland parts of the region will experience wetter or drier conditions. The Canadian model projects large decreases in precipitation and the Hadley model projects large increases; either outcome would have major impacts on upland ecosystems. *Global climate models also do not simulate smaller-scale events such as hurricanes or thunderstorms, so projections of future rainfall do not include changes in Gulf precipitation from these types of storms, however important they are in actuality.
- Hurricanes and Tropical Storms The Gulf Region experiences severe tropical and extratropical storms. Climate change may affect both, but the mechanisms and interactions of many influential factors are still incompletely understood. Hurricane activity varies from decade to decade and is correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. During El Niño events, the probability that hurricanes will make landfall in the southeastern United States goes down, while the probability increases during La Niña events. With global warming, hurricane intensity (maximum wind speeds, rainfall totals) is likely to increase. Note: the number of intense hurricanes (categories 3–5) is projected to increase over the next 25 years, even without climate change, based solely on past trends of climate variability. Changes in future hurricane frequency (which depend in part on whether global warming intensifies El Niño/La Niña conditions) are uncertain. Even if storm intensities were to remain constant, however, coastal flooding and erosion will increase as sea level rises. In other words, even coastal storms that are considered relatively minor today will exert the flooding impact of major storms in the future simply because higher sea levels will bring higher storm surges. Passing storm fronts also strongly influence coastal sea levels; they can raise water levels more than 3 feet in the Mississippi River delta (compared with a tidal amplitude of 1 foot). Changes in the frequency or tracks of frontal systems are still uncertain. Future changes in ENSO—with its influence on the position of the jet stream and thus the ability of storm systems to penetrate far south—will influence local storm and flooding patterns.
- Climate Change Projections for the Gulf Coast Region Projecting climate changes for the Gulf Coast region presents a considerable challenge because of the complex interactions of regional and global climate processes. This report relies primarily on two model-based climate scenarios, the same ones used in the recent U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change* . [*The National Assessment is the result of a Congressional mandate (P.L. 101-606) to undertake periodic scientific assessments of the potential consequences of global change on the United States in the context of other pressures on the Public, the environment, and the nation’s resources. The synthesis report of this effort was released in November 2000.]