This is a talk I gave at the first Velocity Europe Conference, in November 2011. The slides won't make too much sense without the video, which should be here:
4. (Anticipation) (Response)
Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing
What What What What
To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened
(Monitoring) (Learning)
Thursday, November 10, 2011
5. (Anticipation) (Response)
Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing
What What What What
To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened
(Monitoring) (Learning)
Thursday, November 10, 2011
6. Design
Work
Response
Learning
Thursday, November 10, 2011
11. Possible
Foreseeable
Situations
Situations Situations Situations
Considered By Considered By Considered By
Novice Designer Average Designer Expert Designer
Adamski and Westrum, 2003
Thursday, November 10, 2011
12. “No problem!
I design adaptive
systems.”
Thursday, November 10, 2011
20. Adaptive
Systems
Expected
Variation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
21. Adaptive
Systems
Expected
Variation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
22. Adaptive
Systems
Expected
Variation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
23. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
Expected
Variation
Control
compensation decompensation
Woods, 2011
Thursday, November 10, 2011
24. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
Expected
Variation
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
25. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
SYSTEMS
Target
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
26. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
NETWORKS
Target
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
27. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
STAFF
Target
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
28. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
TOOLS
Target
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
29. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
FUNDING
Target
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
30. New Disturbances Compensation is
Arise Exhausted
Disturbance
ANYTHING
Target
Control
compensation decompensation
Thursday, November 10, 2011
44. “What an immense mass of evil
must result...from allowing men
to assume the right of
anticipating what may happen.”
Leo Tolstoy
Thursday, November 10, 2011
45. ?
Haphazard Paranoid
Cowboy Paralysis
Thursday, November 10, 2011
46. Sources of
Anticipation
Traumatic Mature
Experience Requisite
Imagination
Thursday, November 10, 2011
47. (Anticipation) (Response)
Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing
What What What What
To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened
(Monitoring) (Learning)
Thursday, November 10, 2011
59. References
Material in this talk comes from a variety of sources.
These should be considered mandatory reading for operating and
designing any complex systems.
• Resilience Engineering in Practice, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/t7cnXC )
• Ch 10, Handbook of Cognitive Task Design, CRC Press (http://
amzn.to/s9Qo8n)
• Resilience Engineering Perspectives, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/rFVtvo)
Thursday, November 10, 2011