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OPTIMIZING
CONVERSIONS
THROUGH
A/B SPLIT TESTING
Javid Jamae
CTO / Co-founder Camperoo
Presented at the Houston Lean Startup Circle
June 18, 2013
Special thanks to - EmilianoVillareal
‘‘The goal of a Lean Startup is to inform our
riskiest business model assumptions through
empirical testing with customers – not
rhetorical reasoning on a white board.
~ ASH MAURYA
AirBNB
Zappos
Users coming in through a Zappos-
style homepage will be 10% more likely
to go from the homepage into a
product search results page
EXPERIMENTDESIGN
FALSIFIABLE HYPOTHESIS
EXPERIMENT SCOPE
40 man-hours to design and code
750 unique visitors per variant
UNIQUE VISITORS RANDOMIZER ANALYTICS
CONTROL
VARIANT
EXPERIMENTIMPLEMENTATION
50%
50%
THEWINNERWAS?
5.86% ??
Percentage of people going from the homepage
to a product search results page
Control Variant
THEWINNERWAS?
5.86% 6.84%
16.89% increase!
Percentage of people going from the homepage
to a product search results page
Control Variant
BUTWHY?
Was it the:
- Filters
- Category browsing
- Different slider
- The combination
?
In Lean Startups, success is defined
by learning, not by test results
X
A/B
TOOL √
Validated
Learning
Loop
√
Variant
+
Users coming into an AirBNB-style
homepage with categories will be 5%
more likely to go into a product search
results page than without categories
EXPERIMENTDESIGN
FALSIFIABLE HYPOTHESIS
EXPERIMENT SCOPE
1 man-hours to design and code
750 unique visitors per variant
THEWINNERWAS?
5.90% ??
Percentage of people going from the homepage
to a product search results page
Control Variant
THEWINNERWAS?
5.90% 5.98%
Percentage of people going from the homepage
to a product search results page
Control Variant
1.35% increase
THELEANPROCESS
IDEA
HYPOTHESIS
EXPERIMENT DESIGN
EXPERIMENTATION
MEASUREMENT
Scientific
= Process
IDEA
HYPOTHESIS
EXPERIMENT DESIGN
EXPERIMENTATION
MEASUREMENT
Prioritize
Define
Design
Implement
Track
How do I...
PRIORITIZINGEXPERIMENTS
‘‘
If you measure something and it’s not
attached to a goal, in turn changing your
behavior, you’re wasting your time.
ALISTAIR CROLL & BENJAMIN YOSKOVITZ
BOOK: LEAN ANALYTICS
GOALORIENTEDPLANNING
Landing Page
Changes
SEO
Rankings
Goal: Increase
Acquisition
Inbound
Channels
Acquisition
Activation
Referral
Revenue
Retention
PIRATEMETRICS
One
Metric
That
Matters
Lean Analytics (Lean Series). O’Reilly Media.
Stage
RISKSACROSSSTAGESProductCustomerMarket
Problem/Solution
Identify
Competition/
Positioning
Early / Inception
MVP
Narrow/Outbound
Pricing
Product
Scale
Inbound
Cost Structure
Scale
Risks
Qualitative,
Activation / Retention
Quantitative,
Revenue / Growth
Favor experiments that
make sense for your
current stage & goals
Favor experiments that
are innovative
Favor experiments that
have high risk
Favor experiments that
you can measure
Favor experiments that
engaged customers seem
to need or are asking for
Theory of Constraints
A chain is no stronger
than its weakest link.
The Goal - Eliyahu M. Goldratt
DEFININGHYPOTHESES
Is Manchester
United causing
global warming?
http://theconversation.com/how-david-beckham-caused-global-warming-the-man-u-climate-model-4548
‘‘If you torture the data long enough, it will
confess to anything.
~UNKNOWN
Don’t take
Leaps of Faith
Leap of faith: A Zappos-style front page will increase
browsability on our website
Falsifiable hypothesis: Users coming in through a
Zappos-style homepage will be 10% more likely to go
from the homepage into a product search results page
(vs. the AirBNB-style homepage)
Formula:
[Repeatable Action] will [Expected Result]
Writing a blog post about Houston activities
will result in 25 new accounts
Users entering Variation B of the store page
will be 2% more likely to purchase
Putting an item on sale will increase the
chances that it will be added to a cart by 10%
Draw a line
in the sand...
...before you
start gathering data.
DESIGNINGEXPERIMENTS
Are you measuring
impact on a
Goal or a Metric
LEARNINGFROMDATA
A/B Testing
Cohort
AnalysisAnalysis
Testing
Longitudinal Cross-Sectional
Multivariate
Testing
Segmentation
(Conditional)
Feature
Rollout
Decide on a
exit criteria
up front
Cost
It will take 5-10 hours to implement, if
it takes longer, we will abandon.
Scope
We need 1,000 unique visitors per variant
before the data has any meaning to us.
Timebox
If the test doesn’t end by July 2, then we
will abandon.
Follow up
If the test fails, then try experiment C. If
the test passes, then experiment B.
Pick the type
of analysis
TYPESOFANALYSIS
January
February
March
April
May
segmentation
(cross-sectional)
cohort
analysis
(longitudinal)
Pick the type
of test
UNIQUE VISITORS RANDOMIZER
CONTROL
VARIANT
Version A
Version B
A/B
UNIQUE VISITORS RANDOMIZER
CONTROL
VARIANT 1
A/B/N
VARIANT 2
VARIANT 3
MULTIVARIATETESTING
Enroll Sign Up Join Now
Color:
Text:
Size:
27 Combinations
MULTIVARIATETESTING
Enroll Sign Up Join Now
Enroll Sign Up Join Now
Enroll Sign Up Join Now
Enroll Sign Up Join Now
Enroll Sign Up Join Now
Enroll Sign Up Join Now
Enroll
Enroll
Enroll
Sign Up
Sign Up
Sign Up
Join Now
Join Now
Join Now
IMPLEMENTINGEXPERIMENTS
Amazon A/B Testing Service (beta)
FREETOOLS
Google Analytics - Experiments API
Google Analytics - Content Experiments
WYSIWYGTOOLS
ENTERPRISETOOLS
http://www.roidna.com/tools/ab-testing-tool/
THECAMPEROOWAY?
github.com/andrew/split
SPLIT + MIXPANELOpen Source,
Ruby
Freemium,
SAAS
mixpanel.com
TRACKINGEXPERIMENTS
Goal Build Measure Learn
Increase
Acquisition
Zappos
Redesign
AirBNB
with category
navigation
Search engine
display of
customer ratings
Increase
Activation
Draconian
modal dialog
box
KANBANBOARD
VALIDATEDLEARNINGBOARD
http://www.ashmaurya.com/2012/06/the-lean-stack/
EXPERIMENTREPORTING
http://spark59.s3.amazonaws.com/presentations/All%20About%20Experiments.pdf
WEEKLYPLANNING
Weekly meeting:
Review experiment results
Challenge interpretation
Kill or restart overdue experiments
Decide next experiments
THEEND
...to be continued?

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