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A Risk Management Standard
Published by AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002
Introduction
This Risk Management Standard is the            should be viewed not just in the context of
result of work by a team drawn from the         the activity itself but in relation to the
major risk management organisations in          many and varied stakeholders who can be
the UK - The Institute of Risk                  affected.
Management (IRM),The Association of
Insurance and Risk Managers (AIRMIC)            There are many ways of achieving the
and ALARM The National Forum for                objectives of risk management and it
Risk Management in the Public Sector.           would be impossible to try to set them all
                                                out in a single document.Therefore it was
In addition, the team sought the views and      never intended to produce a prescriptive
opinions of a wide range of other               standard which would have led to a box
professional bodies with interests in risk      ticking approach nor to establish a
management, during an extensive period          certifiable process. By meeting the various
of consultation.                                component parts of this standard, albeit in
Risk management is a rapidly developing         different ways, organisations will be in a
discipline and there are many and varied        position to report that they are in
views and descriptions of what risk             compliance.The standard represents best
management involves, how it should be           practice against which organisations can
conducted and what it is for. Some form         measure themselves.
of standard is needed to ensure that there is   The standard has wherever possible used
an agreed:                                      the terminology for risk set out by the
• terminology related to the words used         International Organization for
• process by which risk management can be       Standardization (ISO) in its recent
  carried out                                   document ISO/IEC Guide 73 Risk
                                                Management - Vocabulary - Guidelines for
• organisation structure for risk management    use in standards.
• objective for risk management
                                                In view of the rapid developments in this
Importantly, the standard recognises that
                                                area the authors would appreciate feedback
risk has both an upside and a downside.
                                                from organisations as they put the standard
Risk management is not just something for       into use (addresses to be found on the
corporations or public organisations, but       back cover of this Guide). It is intended
for any activity whether short or long          that regular modifications will be made to
term.The benefits and opportunities             the standard in the light of best practice.




A Risk Management Standard © AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002                                         1
1. Risk
Risk can be defined as the combination of         negative aspects of risk.Therefore this
the probability of an event and its               standard considers risk from both
consequences (ISO/IEC Guide 73).                  perspectives.
In all types of undertaking, there is the         In the safety field, it is generally recognised
potential for events and consequences that        that consequences are only negative and
constitute opportunities for benefit (upside)     therefore the management of safety risk is
or threats to success (downside).                 focused on prevention and mitigation of
                                                  harm.
Risk Management is increasingly recognised
as being concerned with both positive and




    2. Risk Management
Risk management is a central part of any          It must be integrated into the culture of
organisation’s strategic management. It is        the organisation with an effective policy
the process whereby organisations                 and a programme led by the most senior
methodically address the risks attaching to       management. It must translate the
their activities with the goal of achieving       strategy into tactical and operational
sustained benefit within each activity and        objectives, assigning responsibility
across the portfolio of all activities.           throughout the organisation with each
The focus of good risk management is the          manager and employee responsible for the
identification and treatment of these risks.      management of risk as part of their job
Its objective is to add maximum                   description. It supports accountability,
sustainable value to all the activities of the    performance measurement and reward,
organisation. It marshals the                     thus promoting operational efficiency at
understanding of the potential upside and         all levels.
downside of all those factors which can
affect the organisation. It increases the         2.1 External and Internal Factors
probability of success, and reduces both
                                                  The risks facing an organisation and its
the probability of failure and the
                                                  operations can result from factors both
uncertainty of achieving the organisation’s
                                                  external and internal to the organisation.
overall objectives.
Risk management should be a continuous            The diagram overleaf summarises examples
and developing process which runs                 of key risks in these areas and shows that
throughout the organisation’s strategy and        some specific risks can have both external
the implementation of that strategy. It           and internal drivers and therefore overlap
should address methodically all the risks         the two areas.They can be categorised
surrounding the organisation’s activities past,   further into types of risk such as strategic,
present and in particular, future.                financial, operational, hazard, etc.
2                                                               A Risk Management Standard
2.1 Examples of the Drivers of Key Risks




© AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002                 3
2.2 The Risk Management Process

                      The Organisation’s
                      Strategic Objectives

                        Risk Assessment
                         Risk Analysis
                        Risk Identification
                        Risk Description
                         Risk Estimation
Modification




                        Risk Evaluation
                                                                             Formal
                                                                              Audit
                       Risk Reporting
                   Threats and Opportunities

                             Decision

                         Risk Treatment

                  Residual Risk Reporting

                           Monitoring


Risk management protects and adds value to the organisation and its stakeholders through
supporting the organisation’s objectives by:

• providing a framework for an                   use/allocation of capital and resources
  organisation that enables future activity      within the organisation
  to take place in a consistent and            • reducing volatility in the non essential
  controlled manner
                                                 areas of the business
• improving decision making, planning
                                               • protecting and enhancing assets and
  and prioritisation by comprehensive and
                                                 company image
  structured understanding of business
  activity, volatility and project             • developing and supporting people and
  opportunity/threat                             the organisation’s knowledge base
• contributing to more efficient               • optimising operational efficiency

4                                                           A Risk Management Standard
3. Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment is defined by the ISO/               analysis and risk evaluation.
IEC Guide 73 as the overall process of risk          (See appendix)


   4. Risk Analysis
4.1 Risk Identification                             • Financial - These concern the effective
Risk identification sets out to identify an           management and control of the finances of
organisation’s exposure to uncertainty.This           the organisation and the effects of external
requires an intimate knowledge of the                 factors such as availability of credit, foreign
organisation, the market in which it operates,        exchange rates, interest rate movement and
the legal, social, political and cultural             other market exposures.
environment in which it exists, as well as the      • Knowledge management - These concern
development of a sound understanding of its           the effective management and control of the
strategic and operational objectives,
                                                      knowledge resources, the production,
including factors critical to its success and the
                                                      protection and communication thereof.
threats and opportunities related to the
achievement of these objectives.
                                                      External factors might include the
                                                      unauthorised use or abuse of intellectual
Risk identification should be approached              property, area power failures, and
in a methodical way to ensure that all                competitive technology. Internal factors might
significant activities within the organisation        be system malfunction or loss of key staff.
have been identified and all the risks
                                                    • Compliance - These concern such issues as
flowing from these activities defined.
All associated volatility related to these            health & safety, environmental, trade
activities should be identified and                   descriptions, consumer protection, data
categorised.                                          protection, employment practices and
                                                      regulatory issues.
Business activities and decisions can be
                                                    Whilst risk identification can be carried
classified in a range of ways, examples of
                                                    out by outside consultants, an in-house
which include:
                                                    approach with well communicated,
• Strategic - These concern the long-term           consistent and co-ordinated processes and
  strategic objectives of the organisation.They     tools (see Appendix, page 14) is likely to be
  can be affected by such areas as capital          more effective. In-house ‘ownership’ of
                                                    the risk management process is essential.
  availability, sovereign and political risks,
  legal and regulatory changes, reputation
                                                    4.2 Risk Description
  and changes in the physical environment.
                                                    The objective of risk description is to
• Operational - These concern the day-to-           display the identified risks in a structured
  day issues that the organisation is               format, for example, by using a table.The
  confronted with as it strives to deliver its      risk description table overleaf can be used
  strategic objectives.                             to facilitate the description and assessment

© AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002                                                                         5
of risks.The use of a well designed structure      detail. Identification of the risks associated
is necessary to ensure a comprehensive risk        with business activities and decision making
identification, description and assessment         may be categorised as strategic, project/
process. By considering the consequence and        tactical, operational. It is important to
probability of each of the risks set out in the    incorporate risk management at the
table, it should be possible to prioritise the     conceptual stage of projects as well as
key risks that need to be analysed in more         throughout the life of a specific project.


4.2.1 Table - Risk Description
    1. Name of Risk
    2. Scope of Risk            Qualitative description of the events, their size, type,
                                number and dependencies
    3. Nature of Risk           Eg. strategic, operational, financial, knowledge or compliance
    4. Stakeholders             Stakeholders and their expectations
    5. Quantification of Risk   Significance and Probability
    6. Risk Tolerance/          Loss potential and financial impact of risk
       Appetite                 Value at risk
                                Probability and size of potential losses/gains
                                Objective(s) for control of the risk and desired level of
                                performance
    7. Risk Treatment &         Primary means by which the risk is currently managed
       Control Mechanisms       Levels of confidence in existing control
                                Identification of protocols for monitoring and review
    8. Potential Action for     Recommendations to reduce risk
       Improvement
    9. Strategy and Policy      Identification of function responsible for developing strategy
       Developments             and policy


4.3 Risk Estimation                                Examples are given in the tables overleaf.
Risk estimation can be quantitative, semi-         Different organisations will find that
quantitative or qualitative in terms of the        different measures of consequence and
probability of occurrence and the possible         probability will suit their needs best.
consequence.
                                                   For example many organisations find that
For example, consequences both in terms            assessing consequence and probability as high,
of threats (downside risks) and                    medium or low is quite adequate for their
opportunities (upside risks) may be high,          needs and can be presented as a 3 x 3 matrix.
medium or low (see table 4.3.1). Probability
may be high, medium or low but requires            Other organisations find that assessing
different definitions in respect of threats and    consequence and probability using a 5 x 5
opportunities (see tables 4.3.2 and 4.3.3).        matrix gives them a better evaluation.

6                                                                 A Risk Management Standard
Table 4.3.1 Consequences - Both Threats and Opportunities

 High         Financial impact on the organisation is likely to exceed £x
              Significant impact on the organisation’s strategy or operational activities
              Significant stakeholder concern

 Medium       Financial impact on the organisation likely to be between £x and £y
              Moderate impact on the organisation’s strategy or operational activities
              Moderate stakeholder concern

 Low          Financial impact on the organisation likely to be less that £y
              Low impact on the organisation’s strategy or operational activities
              Low stakeholder concern




Table 4.3.2 Probability of Occurrence - Threats

 Estimation       Description                     Indicators

 High             Likely to occur each year       Potential of it occurring several times
 (Probable)       or more than 25% chance         within the time period (for example -
                  of occurrence.                  ten years).
                                                  Has occurred recently.

 Medium           Likely to occur in a ten        Could occur more than once within the
 (Possible)       year time period or less        time period (for example - ten years).
                  than 25% chance of              Could be difficult to control due to
                  occurrence.                     some external influences.
                                                  Is there a history of occurrence?

 Low              Not likely to occur in a        Has not occurred.
 (Remote)         ten year period or less than    Unlikely to occur.
                  2% chance of occurrence.




© AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002                                                                  7
Table 4.3.3 Probability of Occurrence - Opportunities

    Estimation    Description                  Indicators

    High          Favourable outcome is        Clear opportunity which can be relied
    (Probable)    likely to be achieved in     on with reasonable certainty, to be
                  one year or better than      achieved in the short term based on
                  75% chance of occurrence.    current management processes.

    Medium        Reasonable prospects of      Opportunities which may be achievable
    (Possible)    favourable results in one    but which require careful management.
                  year of 25% to 75% chance    Opportunities which may arise over and
                  of occurrence.               above the plan.

    Low           Some chance of favourable    Possible opportunity which has yet to be
    (Remote)      outcome in the medium        fully investigated by management.
                  term or less than 25%        Opportunity for which the likelihood of
                  chance of occurrence.        success is low on the basis of management
                                               resources currently being applied.


4.4 Risk Analysis methods and                  treatment efforts.This ranks each identified
techniques                                     risk so as to give a view of the relative
                                               importance.
A range of techniques can be used to
analyse risks.These can be specific to         This process allows the risk to be mapped
upside or downside risk or be capable of       to the business area affected, describes the
dealing with both. (See Appendix, page 14,     primary control procedures in place and
for examples).                                 indicates areas where the level of risk
                                               control investment might be increased,
4.5 Risk Profile                               decreased or reapportioned.
The result of the risk analysis process can    Accountability helps to ensure that
be used to produce a risk profile which        ‘ownership’ of the risk is recognised and
gives a significance rating to each risk and   the appropriate management resource
provides a tool for prioritising risk          allocated.



     5. Risk Evaluation
When the risk analysis process has been        economic and environmental factors,
completed, it is necessary to compare the      concerns of stakeholders, etc. Risk
estimated risks against risk criteria which    evaluation therefore, is used to make
the organisation has established.The risk      decisions about the significance of risks to
criteria may include associated costs and      the organisation and whether each specific
benefits, legal requirements, socio-           risk should be accepted or treated.

8                                                           A Risk Management Standard
6. Risk Reporting and Communication
6.1 Internal Reporting                            • have systems which communicate
Different levels within an organisation need        variances in budgets and forecasts at
different information from the risk                 appropriate frequency to allow action to be
management process.                                 taken
The Board of Directors should:                    • report systematically and promptly to
• know about the most significant risks             senior management any perceived new
  facing the organisation                           risks or failures of existing control
• know the possible effects on shareholder          measures
  value of deviations to expected
  performance ranges                              Individuals should:
• ensure appropriate levels of awareness          • understand their accountability for
  throughout the organisation                       individual risks
• know how the organisation will manage a         • understand how they can enable
  crisis                                            continuous improvement of risk
• know the importance of stakeholder                management response
  confidence in the organisation
                                                  • understand that risk management and
• know how to manage communications
                                                    risk awareness are a key part of the
  with the investment community where
                                                    organisation’s culture
  applicable
• be assured that the risk management             • report systematically and promptly to
  process is working effectively                    senior management any perceived new
• publish a clear risk management policy            risks or failures of existing control
  covering risk management philosophy and           measures
  responsibilities
                                                  6.2 External Reporting
Business Units should:                            A company needs to report to its
• be aware of risks which fall into their area    stakeholders on a regular basis setting out
  of responsibility, the possible impacts these   its risk management policies and the
  may have on other areas and the                 effectiveness in achieving its objectives.
  consequences other areas may have on
  them                                            Increasingly stakeholders look to
• have performance indicators which allow         organisations to provide evidence of
  them to monitor the key business and            effective management of the organisation’s
  financial activities, progress towards          non-financial performance in such areas as
  objectives and identify developments            community affairs, human rights,
  which require intervention (e.g. forecasts      employment practices, health and safety
  and budgets)                                    and the environment.

© AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002                                                                      9
Good corporate governance requires that             The formal reporting should address:
companies adopt a methodical approach to            • the control methods - particularly
risk management which:                                management responsibilities for risk
• protects the interests of their stakeholders        management
• ensures that the Board of Directors               • the processes used to identify risks and
  discharges its duties to direct strategy, build     how they are addressed by the risk
  value and monitor performance of the                management systems
  organisation                                      • the primary control systems in place to
                                                      manage significant risks
• ensures that management controls are in
                                                    • the monitoring and review system in place
  place and are performing adequately
                                                    Any significant deficiencies uncovered by
The arrangements for the formal reporting           the system, or in the system itself, should
of risk management should be clearly stated         be reported together with the steps taken
and be available to the stakeholders.               to deal with them.




     7. Risk Treatment
Risk treatment is the process of selecting          The risk analysis process assists the effective
and implementing measures to modify the             and efficient operation of the organisation
risk. Risk treatment includes as its major          by identifying those risks which require
element, risk control/mitigation, but               attention by management.They will need
extends further to, for example, risk               to prioritise risk control actions in terms of
avoidance, risk transfer, risk financing, etc.      their potential to benefit the organisation.

NOTE: In this standard, risk financing              Effectiveness of internal control is the
refers to the mechanisms (eg insurance              degree to which the risk will either be
programmes) for funding the financial               eliminated or reduced by the proposed
consequences of risk. Risk financing is not         control measures.
generally considered to be the provision of         Cost effectiveness of internal control relates
funds to meet the cost of implementing risk         to the cost of implementing the control
treatment (as defined by ISO/IEC Guide              compared to the risk reduction benefits
73; see page 17).                                   expected.
Any system of risk treatment should                 The proposed controls need to be
provide as a minimum:                               measured in terms of potential economic
• effective and efficient operation of the          effect if no action is taken versus the cost
  organisation                                      of the proposed action(s) and invariably
                                                    require more detailed information and
• effective internal controls                       assumptions than are immediately
• compliance with laws and regulations.             available.

10                                                                A Risk Management Standard
Firstly, the cost of implementation has to         compliance.There is only occasionally
be established. This has to be calculated          some flexibility where the cost of reducing
with some accuracy since it quickly                a risk may be totally disproportionate to
becomes the baseline against which cost            that risk.
effectiveness is measured. The loss to be
                                                   One method of obtaining financial
expected if no action is taken must also
                                                   protection against the impact of risks is
be estimated and by comparing the
                                                   through risk financing which includes
results, management can decide whether
                                                   insurance. However, it should be
or not to implement the risk control
                                                   recognised that some losses or elements of a
measures.
                                                   loss will be uninsurable eg the uninsured
Compliance with laws and regulations is            costs associated with work-related health,
not an option. An organisation must                safety or environmental incidents, which
understand the applicable laws and must            may include damage to employee morale
implement a system of controls to achieve          and the organisation’s reputation.




   8. Monitoring and Review of the Risk
   Management Process
Effective risk management requires a               Changes in the organisation and the
reporting and review structure to ensure           environment in which it operates must be
that risks are effectively identified and          identified and appropriate changes made to
assessed and that appropriate controls and         systems.
responses are in place. Regular audits of
policy and standards compliance should be          Any monitoring and review process should
carried out and standards performance              also determine whether:
reviewed to identify opportunities for             • the measures adopted resulted in what was
improvement. It should be remembered                 intended
that organisations are dynamic and operate
in dynamic environments. Changes in the            • the procedures adopted and information
organisation and the environment in which            gathered for undertaking the assessment
it operates must be identified and                   were appropriate
appropriate modifications made to systems.         • improved knowledge would have helped
The monitoring process should provide                to reach better decisions and identify
assurance that there are appropriate controls in     what lessons could be learned for
place for the organisation’s activities and that     future assessments and management of
the procedures are understood and followed.          risks

© AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002                                                                     11
9. The Structure and Administration of
     Risk Management
9.1 Risk Management Policy                      The Board should, as a minimum,
An organisation’s risk management policy        consider, in evaluating its system of internal
should set out its approach to and appetite     control:
for risk and its approach to risk               • the nature and extent of downside risks
management.The policy should also set             acceptable for the company to bear within
out responsibilities for risk management          its particular business
throughout the organisation.
                                                • the likelihood of such risks becoming a
Furthermore, it should refer to any legal         reality
requirements for policy statements eg. for      • how unacceptable risks should be managed
Health and Safety.                              • the company’s ability to minimise the
Attaching to the risk management process          probability and impact on the business
is an integrated set of tools and techniques    • the costs and benefits of the risk and
for use in the various stages of the business     control activity undertaken
process.To work effectively, the risk           • the effectiveness of the risk management
management process requires:                      process
• commitment from the chief executive and
                                                • the risk implications of board decisions
  executive management of the organisation
• assignment of responsibilities within the     9.3 Role of the Business Units
  organisation                                  This includes the following:
• allocation of appropriate resources for       • the business units have primary
  training and the development of an              responsibility for managing risk on a day-
  enhanced risk awareness by all                  to-day basis
  stakeholders.                                 • business unit management is responsible
9.2 Role of the Board                             for promoting risk awareness within their
The Board has responsibility for                  operations; they should introduce risk
determining the strategic direction of the        management objectives into their business
organisation and for creating the               • risk management should be a regular
environment and the structures for risk           management-meeting item to allow
management to operate effectively.                consideration of exposures and to
This may be through an executive group, a         reprioritise work in the light of effective
non-executive committee, an audit                 risk analysis
committee or such other function that suits     • business unit management should ensure
the organisation’s way of operating and is        that risk management is incorporated at
capable of acting as a ‘sponsor’ for risk         the conceptual stage of projects as well as
management.                                       throughout a project

12                                                            A Risk Management Standard
9.4 Role of the Risk Management                      management processes across an
Function                                             organisation
Depending on the size of the organisation        •   providing assurance on the management
the risk management function may range               of risk
from a single risk champion, a part time         •   providing active support and involvement
risk manager, to a full scale risk                   in the risk management process
management department.The role of the            •   facilitating risk identification/assessment
Risk Management function should include
                                                     and educating line staff in risk
the following:
                                                     management and internal control
• setting policy and strategy for risk           •   co-ordinating risk reporting to the board,
  management                                         audit committee, etc
• primary champion of risk management at         In determining the most appropriate role
  strategic and operational level                for a particular organisation, Internal Audit
• building a risk aware culture within the       should ensure that the professional
  organisation including appropriate             requirements for independence and
  education                                      objectivity are not breached.
• establishing internal risk policy and          9.6 Resources and
  structures for business units                  Implementation
• designing and reviewing processes for risk     The resources required to implement the
  management                                     organisation’s risk management policy
• co-ordinating the various functional           should be clearly established at each level of
  activities which advise on risk management     management and within each business unit.
  issues within the organisation                 In addition to other operational functions
• developing risk response processes,            they may have, those involved in risk
  including contingency and business             management should have their roles in co-
  continuity programmes                          ordinating risk management policy/strategy
                                                 clearly defined.The same clear definition is
• preparing reports on risk for the board
                                                 also required for those involved in the audit
  and the stakeholders
                                                 and review of internal controls and
9.5 Role of Internal Audit                       facilitating the risk management process.
The role of Internal Audit is likely to differ   Risk management should be embedded
from one organisation to another. In             within the organisation through the
practice, Internal Audit’s role may include      strategy and budget processes. It should be
some or all of the following:                    highlighted in induction and all other
• focusing the internal audit work on the        training and development as well as within
  significant risks, as identified by            operational processes e.g. product/service
  management, and auditing the risk              development projects.




© AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002                                                                    13
10. Appendix
Risk Identification Techniques -               Risk Analysis Methods and
examples                                       Techniques - examples
• Brainstorming                                Upside risk
• Questionnaires                               • Market survey
• Business studies which look at each          • Prospecting
  business process and describe both the       • Test marketing
  internal processes and external factors      • Research and Development
  which can influence those processes
                                               • Business impact analysis
• Industry benchmarking
• Scenario analysis                            Both
• Risk assessment workshops                    • Dependency modelling
• Incident investigation                       • SWOT analysis (Strengths,Weaknesses,
                                                 Opportunities,Threats)
• Auditing and inspection
                                               • Event tree analysis
• HAZOP (Hazard & Operability
  Studies)                                     • Business continuity planning
                                               • BPEST (Business, Political, Economic,
                                                 Social,Technological) analysis
                                               • Real Option Modelling
                                               • Decision taking under conditions of risk
                                                 and uncertainty
                                               • Statistical inference
                                               • Measures of central tendency and
                                                 dispersion
                                               • PESTLE (Political Economic Social
                                                 Technical Legal Environmental)
                                               Downside risk
                                               • Threat analysis
                                               • Fault tree analysis
                                               • FMEA (Failure Mode & Effect Analysis)



On the following pages are extracts from the document PD ISO/IEC Guide 73: 2002
reproduced with the permission of British Standards Institution under licence number
2002SK/0313. British Standards can be obtained from BSI Customer Services,
389 Chiswick High Road, London W4 4AL. (Tel + 44 (0) 20 8996 9001)

14                                                          A Risk Management Standard
The Institute of Risk Management       6 Lloyd’s Avenue,
                                                        Telephone 020 7709 9808      London EC3N 3AX
                                                                                     Facsimile 020 7709 0716
                                                                                     Email enquiries@theIRM.org
                                                                                     www.theirm.org




                                                ALARM The National Forum for         Queens Drive, Exmouth
                                          Risk Management in the Public Sector       Devon, EX8 2AY
                                                      Telephone 01395 223399         Facsimile 01395 223304
                                                                                     Email admin@alarm.uk.com
                                                                                     www.alarm-uk.com




                                                              The Association of     6 Lloyd’s Avenue,
                                                   Insurance and Risk Managers       London EC3N 3AX
                                                        Telephone 020 7480 7610      Facsimile 020 7702 3752
                                                                                     Email enquiries@airmic.co.uk
                                                                                     www.airmic.com




      This publication is available from the above organisations for download from their respective websites free of charge.
Please contact the individual associations if you wish to purchase more copies of this Risk Management Standard in printed form

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Risk management standard_030820

  • 1. A Risk Management Standard
  • 2. Published by AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002
  • 3. Introduction This Risk Management Standard is the should be viewed not just in the context of result of work by a team drawn from the the activity itself but in relation to the major risk management organisations in many and varied stakeholders who can be the UK - The Institute of Risk affected. Management (IRM),The Association of Insurance and Risk Managers (AIRMIC) There are many ways of achieving the and ALARM The National Forum for objectives of risk management and it Risk Management in the Public Sector. would be impossible to try to set them all out in a single document.Therefore it was In addition, the team sought the views and never intended to produce a prescriptive opinions of a wide range of other standard which would have led to a box professional bodies with interests in risk ticking approach nor to establish a management, during an extensive period certifiable process. By meeting the various of consultation. component parts of this standard, albeit in Risk management is a rapidly developing different ways, organisations will be in a discipline and there are many and varied position to report that they are in views and descriptions of what risk compliance.The standard represents best management involves, how it should be practice against which organisations can conducted and what it is for. Some form measure themselves. of standard is needed to ensure that there is The standard has wherever possible used an agreed: the terminology for risk set out by the • terminology related to the words used International Organization for • process by which risk management can be Standardization (ISO) in its recent carried out document ISO/IEC Guide 73 Risk Management - Vocabulary - Guidelines for • organisation structure for risk management use in standards. • objective for risk management In view of the rapid developments in this Importantly, the standard recognises that area the authors would appreciate feedback risk has both an upside and a downside. from organisations as they put the standard Risk management is not just something for into use (addresses to be found on the corporations or public organisations, but back cover of this Guide). It is intended for any activity whether short or long that regular modifications will be made to term.The benefits and opportunities the standard in the light of best practice. A Risk Management Standard © AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002 1
  • 4. 1. Risk Risk can be defined as the combination of negative aspects of risk.Therefore this the probability of an event and its standard considers risk from both consequences (ISO/IEC Guide 73). perspectives. In all types of undertaking, there is the In the safety field, it is generally recognised potential for events and consequences that that consequences are only negative and constitute opportunities for benefit (upside) therefore the management of safety risk is or threats to success (downside). focused on prevention and mitigation of harm. Risk Management is increasingly recognised as being concerned with both positive and 2. Risk Management Risk management is a central part of any It must be integrated into the culture of organisation’s strategic management. It is the organisation with an effective policy the process whereby organisations and a programme led by the most senior methodically address the risks attaching to management. It must translate the their activities with the goal of achieving strategy into tactical and operational sustained benefit within each activity and objectives, assigning responsibility across the portfolio of all activities. throughout the organisation with each The focus of good risk management is the manager and employee responsible for the identification and treatment of these risks. management of risk as part of their job Its objective is to add maximum description. It supports accountability, sustainable value to all the activities of the performance measurement and reward, organisation. It marshals the thus promoting operational efficiency at understanding of the potential upside and all levels. downside of all those factors which can affect the organisation. It increases the 2.1 External and Internal Factors probability of success, and reduces both The risks facing an organisation and its the probability of failure and the operations can result from factors both uncertainty of achieving the organisation’s external and internal to the organisation. overall objectives. Risk management should be a continuous The diagram overleaf summarises examples and developing process which runs of key risks in these areas and shows that throughout the organisation’s strategy and some specific risks can have both external the implementation of that strategy. It and internal drivers and therefore overlap should address methodically all the risks the two areas.They can be categorised surrounding the organisation’s activities past, further into types of risk such as strategic, present and in particular, future. financial, operational, hazard, etc. 2 A Risk Management Standard
  • 5. 2.1 Examples of the Drivers of Key Risks © AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002 3
  • 6. 2.2 The Risk Management Process The Organisation’s Strategic Objectives Risk Assessment Risk Analysis Risk Identification Risk Description Risk Estimation Modification Risk Evaluation Formal Audit Risk Reporting Threats and Opportunities Decision Risk Treatment Residual Risk Reporting Monitoring Risk management protects and adds value to the organisation and its stakeholders through supporting the organisation’s objectives by: • providing a framework for an use/allocation of capital and resources organisation that enables future activity within the organisation to take place in a consistent and • reducing volatility in the non essential controlled manner areas of the business • improving decision making, planning • protecting and enhancing assets and and prioritisation by comprehensive and company image structured understanding of business activity, volatility and project • developing and supporting people and opportunity/threat the organisation’s knowledge base • contributing to more efficient • optimising operational efficiency 4 A Risk Management Standard
  • 7. 3. Risk Assessment Risk Assessment is defined by the ISO/ analysis and risk evaluation. IEC Guide 73 as the overall process of risk (See appendix) 4. Risk Analysis 4.1 Risk Identification • Financial - These concern the effective Risk identification sets out to identify an management and control of the finances of organisation’s exposure to uncertainty.This the organisation and the effects of external requires an intimate knowledge of the factors such as availability of credit, foreign organisation, the market in which it operates, exchange rates, interest rate movement and the legal, social, political and cultural other market exposures. environment in which it exists, as well as the • Knowledge management - These concern development of a sound understanding of its the effective management and control of the strategic and operational objectives, knowledge resources, the production, including factors critical to its success and the protection and communication thereof. threats and opportunities related to the achievement of these objectives. External factors might include the unauthorised use or abuse of intellectual Risk identification should be approached property, area power failures, and in a methodical way to ensure that all competitive technology. Internal factors might significant activities within the organisation be system malfunction or loss of key staff. have been identified and all the risks • Compliance - These concern such issues as flowing from these activities defined. All associated volatility related to these health & safety, environmental, trade activities should be identified and descriptions, consumer protection, data categorised. protection, employment practices and regulatory issues. Business activities and decisions can be Whilst risk identification can be carried classified in a range of ways, examples of out by outside consultants, an in-house which include: approach with well communicated, • Strategic - These concern the long-term consistent and co-ordinated processes and strategic objectives of the organisation.They tools (see Appendix, page 14) is likely to be can be affected by such areas as capital more effective. In-house ‘ownership’ of the risk management process is essential. availability, sovereign and political risks, legal and regulatory changes, reputation 4.2 Risk Description and changes in the physical environment. The objective of risk description is to • Operational - These concern the day-to- display the identified risks in a structured day issues that the organisation is format, for example, by using a table.The confronted with as it strives to deliver its risk description table overleaf can be used strategic objectives. to facilitate the description and assessment © AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002 5
  • 8. of risks.The use of a well designed structure detail. Identification of the risks associated is necessary to ensure a comprehensive risk with business activities and decision making identification, description and assessment may be categorised as strategic, project/ process. By considering the consequence and tactical, operational. It is important to probability of each of the risks set out in the incorporate risk management at the table, it should be possible to prioritise the conceptual stage of projects as well as key risks that need to be analysed in more throughout the life of a specific project. 4.2.1 Table - Risk Description 1. Name of Risk 2. Scope of Risk Qualitative description of the events, their size, type, number and dependencies 3. Nature of Risk Eg. strategic, operational, financial, knowledge or compliance 4. Stakeholders Stakeholders and their expectations 5. Quantification of Risk Significance and Probability 6. Risk Tolerance/ Loss potential and financial impact of risk Appetite Value at risk Probability and size of potential losses/gains Objective(s) for control of the risk and desired level of performance 7. Risk Treatment & Primary means by which the risk is currently managed Control Mechanisms Levels of confidence in existing control Identification of protocols for monitoring and review 8. Potential Action for Recommendations to reduce risk Improvement 9. Strategy and Policy Identification of function responsible for developing strategy Developments and policy 4.3 Risk Estimation Examples are given in the tables overleaf. Risk estimation can be quantitative, semi- Different organisations will find that quantitative or qualitative in terms of the different measures of consequence and probability of occurrence and the possible probability will suit their needs best. consequence. For example many organisations find that For example, consequences both in terms assessing consequence and probability as high, of threats (downside risks) and medium or low is quite adequate for their opportunities (upside risks) may be high, needs and can be presented as a 3 x 3 matrix. medium or low (see table 4.3.1). Probability may be high, medium or low but requires Other organisations find that assessing different definitions in respect of threats and consequence and probability using a 5 x 5 opportunities (see tables 4.3.2 and 4.3.3). matrix gives them a better evaluation. 6 A Risk Management Standard
  • 9. Table 4.3.1 Consequences - Both Threats and Opportunities High Financial impact on the organisation is likely to exceed £x Significant impact on the organisation’s strategy or operational activities Significant stakeholder concern Medium Financial impact on the organisation likely to be between £x and £y Moderate impact on the organisation’s strategy or operational activities Moderate stakeholder concern Low Financial impact on the organisation likely to be less that £y Low impact on the organisation’s strategy or operational activities Low stakeholder concern Table 4.3.2 Probability of Occurrence - Threats Estimation Description Indicators High Likely to occur each year Potential of it occurring several times (Probable) or more than 25% chance within the time period (for example - of occurrence. ten years). Has occurred recently. Medium Likely to occur in a ten Could occur more than once within the (Possible) year time period or less time period (for example - ten years). than 25% chance of Could be difficult to control due to occurrence. some external influences. Is there a history of occurrence? Low Not likely to occur in a Has not occurred. (Remote) ten year period or less than Unlikely to occur. 2% chance of occurrence. © AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002 7
  • 10. Table 4.3.3 Probability of Occurrence - Opportunities Estimation Description Indicators High Favourable outcome is Clear opportunity which can be relied (Probable) likely to be achieved in on with reasonable certainty, to be one year or better than achieved in the short term based on 75% chance of occurrence. current management processes. Medium Reasonable prospects of Opportunities which may be achievable (Possible) favourable results in one but which require careful management. year of 25% to 75% chance Opportunities which may arise over and of occurrence. above the plan. Low Some chance of favourable Possible opportunity which has yet to be (Remote) outcome in the medium fully investigated by management. term or less than 25% Opportunity for which the likelihood of chance of occurrence. success is low on the basis of management resources currently being applied. 4.4 Risk Analysis methods and treatment efforts.This ranks each identified techniques risk so as to give a view of the relative importance. A range of techniques can be used to analyse risks.These can be specific to This process allows the risk to be mapped upside or downside risk or be capable of to the business area affected, describes the dealing with both. (See Appendix, page 14, primary control procedures in place and for examples). indicates areas where the level of risk control investment might be increased, 4.5 Risk Profile decreased or reapportioned. The result of the risk analysis process can Accountability helps to ensure that be used to produce a risk profile which ‘ownership’ of the risk is recognised and gives a significance rating to each risk and the appropriate management resource provides a tool for prioritising risk allocated. 5. Risk Evaluation When the risk analysis process has been economic and environmental factors, completed, it is necessary to compare the concerns of stakeholders, etc. Risk estimated risks against risk criteria which evaluation therefore, is used to make the organisation has established.The risk decisions about the significance of risks to criteria may include associated costs and the organisation and whether each specific benefits, legal requirements, socio- risk should be accepted or treated. 8 A Risk Management Standard
  • 11. 6. Risk Reporting and Communication 6.1 Internal Reporting • have systems which communicate Different levels within an organisation need variances in budgets and forecasts at different information from the risk appropriate frequency to allow action to be management process. taken The Board of Directors should: • report systematically and promptly to • know about the most significant risks senior management any perceived new facing the organisation risks or failures of existing control • know the possible effects on shareholder measures value of deviations to expected performance ranges Individuals should: • ensure appropriate levels of awareness • understand their accountability for throughout the organisation individual risks • know how the organisation will manage a • understand how they can enable crisis continuous improvement of risk • know the importance of stakeholder management response confidence in the organisation • understand that risk management and • know how to manage communications risk awareness are a key part of the with the investment community where organisation’s culture applicable • be assured that the risk management • report systematically and promptly to process is working effectively senior management any perceived new • publish a clear risk management policy risks or failures of existing control covering risk management philosophy and measures responsibilities 6.2 External Reporting Business Units should: A company needs to report to its • be aware of risks which fall into their area stakeholders on a regular basis setting out of responsibility, the possible impacts these its risk management policies and the may have on other areas and the effectiveness in achieving its objectives. consequences other areas may have on them Increasingly stakeholders look to • have performance indicators which allow organisations to provide evidence of them to monitor the key business and effective management of the organisation’s financial activities, progress towards non-financial performance in such areas as objectives and identify developments community affairs, human rights, which require intervention (e.g. forecasts employment practices, health and safety and budgets) and the environment. © AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002 9
  • 12. Good corporate governance requires that The formal reporting should address: companies adopt a methodical approach to • the control methods - particularly risk management which: management responsibilities for risk • protects the interests of their stakeholders management • ensures that the Board of Directors • the processes used to identify risks and discharges its duties to direct strategy, build how they are addressed by the risk value and monitor performance of the management systems organisation • the primary control systems in place to manage significant risks • ensures that management controls are in • the monitoring and review system in place place and are performing adequately Any significant deficiencies uncovered by The arrangements for the formal reporting the system, or in the system itself, should of risk management should be clearly stated be reported together with the steps taken and be available to the stakeholders. to deal with them. 7. Risk Treatment Risk treatment is the process of selecting The risk analysis process assists the effective and implementing measures to modify the and efficient operation of the organisation risk. Risk treatment includes as its major by identifying those risks which require element, risk control/mitigation, but attention by management.They will need extends further to, for example, risk to prioritise risk control actions in terms of avoidance, risk transfer, risk financing, etc. their potential to benefit the organisation. NOTE: In this standard, risk financing Effectiveness of internal control is the refers to the mechanisms (eg insurance degree to which the risk will either be programmes) for funding the financial eliminated or reduced by the proposed consequences of risk. Risk financing is not control measures. generally considered to be the provision of Cost effectiveness of internal control relates funds to meet the cost of implementing risk to the cost of implementing the control treatment (as defined by ISO/IEC Guide compared to the risk reduction benefits 73; see page 17). expected. Any system of risk treatment should The proposed controls need to be provide as a minimum: measured in terms of potential economic • effective and efficient operation of the effect if no action is taken versus the cost organisation of the proposed action(s) and invariably require more detailed information and • effective internal controls assumptions than are immediately • compliance with laws and regulations. available. 10 A Risk Management Standard
  • 13. Firstly, the cost of implementation has to compliance.There is only occasionally be established. This has to be calculated some flexibility where the cost of reducing with some accuracy since it quickly a risk may be totally disproportionate to becomes the baseline against which cost that risk. effectiveness is measured. The loss to be One method of obtaining financial expected if no action is taken must also protection against the impact of risks is be estimated and by comparing the through risk financing which includes results, management can decide whether insurance. However, it should be or not to implement the risk control recognised that some losses or elements of a measures. loss will be uninsurable eg the uninsured Compliance with laws and regulations is costs associated with work-related health, not an option. An organisation must safety or environmental incidents, which understand the applicable laws and must may include damage to employee morale implement a system of controls to achieve and the organisation’s reputation. 8. Monitoring and Review of the Risk Management Process Effective risk management requires a Changes in the organisation and the reporting and review structure to ensure environment in which it operates must be that risks are effectively identified and identified and appropriate changes made to assessed and that appropriate controls and systems. responses are in place. Regular audits of policy and standards compliance should be Any monitoring and review process should carried out and standards performance also determine whether: reviewed to identify opportunities for • the measures adopted resulted in what was improvement. It should be remembered intended that organisations are dynamic and operate in dynamic environments. Changes in the • the procedures adopted and information organisation and the environment in which gathered for undertaking the assessment it operates must be identified and were appropriate appropriate modifications made to systems. • improved knowledge would have helped The monitoring process should provide to reach better decisions and identify assurance that there are appropriate controls in what lessons could be learned for place for the organisation’s activities and that future assessments and management of the procedures are understood and followed. risks © AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002 11
  • 14. 9. The Structure and Administration of Risk Management 9.1 Risk Management Policy The Board should, as a minimum, An organisation’s risk management policy consider, in evaluating its system of internal should set out its approach to and appetite control: for risk and its approach to risk • the nature and extent of downside risks management.The policy should also set acceptable for the company to bear within out responsibilities for risk management its particular business throughout the organisation. • the likelihood of such risks becoming a Furthermore, it should refer to any legal reality requirements for policy statements eg. for • how unacceptable risks should be managed Health and Safety. • the company’s ability to minimise the Attaching to the risk management process probability and impact on the business is an integrated set of tools and techniques • the costs and benefits of the risk and for use in the various stages of the business control activity undertaken process.To work effectively, the risk • the effectiveness of the risk management management process requires: process • commitment from the chief executive and • the risk implications of board decisions executive management of the organisation • assignment of responsibilities within the 9.3 Role of the Business Units organisation This includes the following: • allocation of appropriate resources for • the business units have primary training and the development of an responsibility for managing risk on a day- enhanced risk awareness by all to-day basis stakeholders. • business unit management is responsible 9.2 Role of the Board for promoting risk awareness within their The Board has responsibility for operations; they should introduce risk determining the strategic direction of the management objectives into their business organisation and for creating the • risk management should be a regular environment and the structures for risk management-meeting item to allow management to operate effectively. consideration of exposures and to This may be through an executive group, a reprioritise work in the light of effective non-executive committee, an audit risk analysis committee or such other function that suits • business unit management should ensure the organisation’s way of operating and is that risk management is incorporated at capable of acting as a ‘sponsor’ for risk the conceptual stage of projects as well as management. throughout a project 12 A Risk Management Standard
  • 15. 9.4 Role of the Risk Management management processes across an Function organisation Depending on the size of the organisation • providing assurance on the management the risk management function may range of risk from a single risk champion, a part time • providing active support and involvement risk manager, to a full scale risk in the risk management process management department.The role of the • facilitating risk identification/assessment Risk Management function should include and educating line staff in risk the following: management and internal control • setting policy and strategy for risk • co-ordinating risk reporting to the board, management audit committee, etc • primary champion of risk management at In determining the most appropriate role strategic and operational level for a particular organisation, Internal Audit • building a risk aware culture within the should ensure that the professional organisation including appropriate requirements for independence and education objectivity are not breached. • establishing internal risk policy and 9.6 Resources and structures for business units Implementation • designing and reviewing processes for risk The resources required to implement the management organisation’s risk management policy • co-ordinating the various functional should be clearly established at each level of activities which advise on risk management management and within each business unit. issues within the organisation In addition to other operational functions • developing risk response processes, they may have, those involved in risk including contingency and business management should have their roles in co- continuity programmes ordinating risk management policy/strategy clearly defined.The same clear definition is • preparing reports on risk for the board also required for those involved in the audit and the stakeholders and review of internal controls and 9.5 Role of Internal Audit facilitating the risk management process. The role of Internal Audit is likely to differ Risk management should be embedded from one organisation to another. In within the organisation through the practice, Internal Audit’s role may include strategy and budget processes. It should be some or all of the following: highlighted in induction and all other • focusing the internal audit work on the training and development as well as within significant risks, as identified by operational processes e.g. product/service management, and auditing the risk development projects. © AIRMIC, ALARM, IRM: 2002 13
  • 16. 10. Appendix Risk Identification Techniques - Risk Analysis Methods and examples Techniques - examples • Brainstorming Upside risk • Questionnaires • Market survey • Business studies which look at each • Prospecting business process and describe both the • Test marketing internal processes and external factors • Research and Development which can influence those processes • Business impact analysis • Industry benchmarking • Scenario analysis Both • Risk assessment workshops • Dependency modelling • Incident investigation • SWOT analysis (Strengths,Weaknesses, Opportunities,Threats) • Auditing and inspection • Event tree analysis • HAZOP (Hazard & Operability Studies) • Business continuity planning • BPEST (Business, Political, Economic, Social,Technological) analysis • Real Option Modelling • Decision taking under conditions of risk and uncertainty • Statistical inference • Measures of central tendency and dispersion • PESTLE (Political Economic Social Technical Legal Environmental) Downside risk • Threat analysis • Fault tree analysis • FMEA (Failure Mode & Effect Analysis) On the following pages are extracts from the document PD ISO/IEC Guide 73: 2002 reproduced with the permission of British Standards Institution under licence number 2002SK/0313. British Standards can be obtained from BSI Customer Services, 389 Chiswick High Road, London W4 4AL. (Tel + 44 (0) 20 8996 9001) 14 A Risk Management Standard
  • 17. The Institute of Risk Management 6 Lloyd’s Avenue, Telephone 020 7709 9808 London EC3N 3AX Facsimile 020 7709 0716 Email enquiries@theIRM.org www.theirm.org ALARM The National Forum for Queens Drive, Exmouth Risk Management in the Public Sector Devon, EX8 2AY Telephone 01395 223399 Facsimile 01395 223304 Email admin@alarm.uk.com www.alarm-uk.com The Association of 6 Lloyd’s Avenue, Insurance and Risk Managers London EC3N 3AX Telephone 020 7480 7610 Facsimile 020 7702 3752 Email enquiries@airmic.co.uk www.airmic.com This publication is available from the above organisations for download from their respective websites free of charge. Please contact the individual associations if you wish to purchase more copies of this Risk Management Standard in printed form