1. Emerging Trends
Impacting Higher Education
Presented by Dr. Jim Black, President & CEO of SEM Works

2. Agenda
‣ Demographic shifts
‣ Tomorrow’s Students
‣ Emerging Trends

3. graphic Shifts
Demo

4. Is Demography Destiny?

5. impact on the year-to-year especially to improve the rigor of the standard high
Is DemographyRegion
Figure 4.1. Births by Destiny?
1.6
1.4
South
1.2
West
1.0
Millions
.8 Midwest
Northeast
.6
.4
.2
0
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Figure 4.2. Percent Change in Births Between 1994 and 2004
by Region and Race/Ethnicity

6. Actual and Projected High School
Graduates by Region
2001-02 2006-07 2019-20
1200
900
600
300
Northeast
Midwest
South 0
West
Source: WICHE

7. Summ
Figure 2.22. Percent Change in Public and Nation
Nonpublic High School Graduates by State, indicat
2004-05 to 2014-15 of high
will ris
contin
began
decade
the nu
will dip
before
again
of the
the cen
geogra
as indi
face ve
over th
-10% or less
-5% to -9.99% terms
-4.99% to 5%
5.01% to 10%
gradua
10.01% to 20% from p
Greater than 20%
high sc
Source: WICHE Figure
illustra
regionwide, with several exceptions. Louisiana is the states
most obvious one, though the decline in graduates and the medium term. Figure 2.21 s

8. critical look
tructure
ation in
e needs
Actual and Projected High School
ging Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State
Figure 3.22. Numerical Change Between 2005
um and 2015 in American Indian/Alaska Native
mographic
Public High School Graduates by State
ated in
e than in
nce, the
al school
graduates
is heavier
eady have
spanic
ough even
arably little
ng with
s will see
relative
tudent
refore, this 0 or less
a series of 1 to 100
101 to 250
ended to Greater than 250
ing racial/
on of
ort of high
Source: WICHE

9. 75.01% to 90%
Greater than 90% its regions, and m
Actual and Projected High School its states are radi
changing the rac
Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State ethnic compositi
student body tha
schools will be se
the years to com
Figure 3.34. Numerical Change Between 2005 school graduatin
and 2015 in White non-Hispanic are diversifying a
Public High School Graduates by State rapidly. Although
high school grad
on to college and
college students
high school grad
such diversificati
pressure on man
of postsecondary
to adapt.
States and institu
have to consider
ensure that the c
being offered is
sensitive and res
-10,000 or less Given historical p
-9,999 to -2,500
-2,499 to 0
of academic sup
Greater than 0 preparation, aca
financial aid advi
likely see more st
with larger defic
Source: WICHE learning and few

10. graduates. Figure 3.32 shows the rates non-Hispanic graduates in California in 2014-15 are
Actual and Projected High School
owth is projected to occur. Hispanic
s will grow especially rapidly in all the
projected to number almost 40,000 less than they did in
2004-05, and the decline will exceed 10,000 in Illinois,
hare Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State
h, as well as in several Midwest states. Pennsylvania, New York, and Texas.
ates
Figure 3.31. Numerical Change Between
da still
wth 2005 and 2015 in Hispanic Public High School
dents due Graduates by State
ate of
nd several
tes, such
Arizona,
mbination
and a fast
ugh not as
nics
fornia,
ico, and
Hispanic
sed
0 or less
ose 1 to 5,000
public 5,001 to 20,000
Greater than 20,000
05
reover,
states,
hern Source: WICHE
the
enerally
ting

11. Greater than 10%
Carolina) will se
Actual and Projected High School Drops will also
the southern pa
Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State England, as we
York and Califo
most of the sta
Figure 3.28. Numerical Change Between 2005
country can exp
and 2015 in Black non-Hispanic increases in the
Public High School Graduates by State of Black non-H
graduates from
schools by 201
States showing
average annua
in Black non-Hi
graduate numb
2014-15 are m
those that have
small Black non
populations in
place (Figure 3
such as Monta
and North Dak
which projectio
0 or less
1 to 1,000 a growth rate e
1,001 to 5,000
Greater than 5,000
10 percent per
see high rates o
but very modes
in the number
Source: WICHE non-Hispanic g

12. Actual and Projected High School
York, Virginia, and Washington – had shares between
five and 10 percent. Several of those same states will
as states that will see their number of public h
graduates of Asian/Pacific Islander descent clim
Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State
continue to add larger numbers of graduates from this
group than other states: California, Nevada, New Jersey,
than 2,500 between 2005 and 2015 (Figure 3
Louisiana, Massachusetts, South Dakota, and
New York, and Virginia will be joined by Florida and Texas Island are forecast to produce fewer Asian/Pac
graduates in th
Figure 3.25. Numerical Change Between 2005 A vast swath of
and 2015 in Asian/Pacific Islander the center of th
spanning three
Public High School Graduates by State West, the Midw
the South), will
modest increase
than 1,000 Asia
Islander gradua
Nationally, Asia
Islanders are pr
to see the secon
growth rates am
racial/ethnic gro
3.26). Only fou
see a negative a
annual growth
0 or less the decade follo
1 to 1,000 2004-05: Hawa
1,001 to 2,500
Greater than 2,500 Massachusetts,
Island.11 Arizon
and Arkansas ca
the biggest incr
Source: WICHE in Asian/Pacific
numbers, and t
Figure 3.26. Average Annual Percent Change tier of states ge
(other than Lou

13. % of Lives Births 18 Years Later Enrolled
in Postsecondary Education
% Enrolled in PSE
80
60
‣ PSE participation rate
40
‣ Market share 20
1970
1990
2000 0
‣ New markets 2008
2011
Source: WICHE

14. Participation Rates
‣ PSE participation rates are
inversely correlated to the
economy
‣ Females participation rates have
increased at a higher rate than
males over the last decade
‣ Over the last decade the
participation rate of Blacks,
Hispanics, and Asian/Pacific
Islanders has increased slightly
‣ The national enrollment migration
pattern
‣ 6,289
Source: US Department of Education

15. Market Share
‣ Market share
‣ Mind share

16. New Market Risks
Established New
Programs Programs
1. Lowest Risk 2. Moderate Risk
Established
Market
Market Penetration Program Expansion
3. Moderate Risk 4. Highest Risk
New
Market
Market Expansion Market Diversification

17. orrow’s Students
Tom

18. Pathway Promises
‣ Further education
‣ Employment
‣ Career advancement
‣ Opportunities to learn
Jobs

19. Always Connected

20. ‣ Taking away their cell phones
‣ The bedroom is command central
‣ An escape from a mundane life
‣ Isolation or a social network
‣ Enhanced learning or deterioration
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/digitalnation/view/

21. ‣ Entitlement generation
‣ Expect to succeed
‣ Seek edutainment
‣ Blurred boundaries for classroom behavior
‣ Socialize online and in packs
‣ Multi-taskers

22. ‣ Living in the Techno Cro-Magnon Period
‣ Inhabitants of a flat world
‣ Increasingly diverse
‣ More 1st generation
‣ Family-oriented
‣ Marketing skeptics

24. The New Normal
1975 2008
50
44.7 43.5
37.5
25 31.1
22.1
12.5 20.7
0 8.8
Only Husband Working Dual Earners Single Parent Earner

25. 1.Changing careers more frequently
2.Working multiple jobs
3.Self-employed
4.Contract laborers
5.Working from home

26. The future of the US workforce will be
determined by:
‣ The rate of recovery from the recession
‣ The growth of Green technology and
infrastructure jobs
‣ Legislation regarding labor force issues such
as NAFTA
‣ The pace of technological change
‣ A quickening rate of economic globalization

27. The future of the US workforce will be
determined by:
‣ The rate of recovery from the recession Adu lts student
s
e
will follow th
jobs.
‣ The growth of Green technology and
infrastructure jobs
‣ Legislation regarding labor force issues such
as NAFTA
‣ The pace of technological change
‣ A quickening rate of economic globalization

28. rging Trends
Eme

29. Trend 1: Social and Digital Media

30. ‣ Privacy issues
‣ Sexting
‣ Cyber bullying
‣ Depression
‣ Relationship depth and breadth
‣ Illegal file sharing
‣ Access to all human knowledge
‣ Validation of information
‣ Plagiarism
‣ A culture of immediacy
‣ Classroom behavior

31. ‣ Privacy issues
‣ Sexting
‣ Cyber bullying
‣ Depression
‣ Relationship depth and breadth
‣ Illegal file sharing
‣ Access to all human knowledge
‣ Validation of information
‣ Plagiarism
‣ A culture of immediacy
‣ Classroom behavior

32. We are not immune
to the phenomenon
<iframe width="1280" height="750" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/tGn3-RW8Ajk?rel=0"

33. Trend 2: The eBook
Revolution
‣ 1 million iPads sold in the first
27 days in the US
‣ Amazon is selling 143 eBooks
for every 100 hard copy books
sold
‣ Amazon has 630,000 Kindle
eBooks
‣ Stanford University leads the
way in digitizing library books

34. The University of Texas at San Antonio
announces the opening of the world’s
first bookless library in 2010.

35. Flatworld Knowledge is the world’s largest
publisher of fully editable and FREE college
textbooks.

36. The Next Generation of
Textbooks
<iframe width="1280" height="750" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/uL-2Egqc1qc?
rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

37. Trend 3: Consumer-Driven,
Flexible Learning Options
http://www.uopeople.org/
<iframe width="960" height="750" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/7w8My_aNDDw?
rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

38. Trend 4: High Tech, High
Touch Services
One-stop
Services

39. No-stop
Services
http://itunes.apple.com/us/itunes-u/student-services/id390961657

41. Any-stop Services
Shared Service
Center

42. Trend 5: Outsourcing
CRM
Systems

45. Trend 6: A Widening Range of Student
Abilities, Preparedness, Background, and
Motivation
The Obama Administration’s
higher education agenda...

46. The Administration’s Goals
‣ By 2020, have the ‣ Restructure federal
highest college financial aid
completion rate in
the world ‣ Invest in community
colleges to equip a
‣ Increase access to greater number of
higher education people with the
‣ Strengthen the PSE skills to work in
pipeline emerging industries

47. The top 5 countries with the highest
college completion rates
1. Canada (55.8%)
2. South Korea (55.5%)
3. Russia (55.4%)
4. Japan (55.3%)
5. New Zealand (47.3%)

48. The top 5 countries with the highest
college completion rates
1. Canada (55.8%)
2. South Korea (55.5%)
3. Russia (55.4%)
4. Japan (55.3%)
5. New Zealand (47.3%)
Among Americans 25-34 years of age, 40% have an associate’s degree or higher--
placing the US 12th in the ranking.

49. Challenges and
Opportunities
‣ A recovering economy
‣ Protracted developmental coursework
‣ Early student engagement with support
services
‣ Sustained intervention and mentoring
‣ Employee bandwidth
‣ Faculty development
‣ Commitment and accessibility of adjunct
instructors

50. Trend 7: Financial Constraints
Higher education is in a period
of “creative destruction.”
-- Joseph Schumpeter

51. US College Cost Trends
Consumer Expectations

52. 2011-12 Tuition and Fees

53. College and universities of
the future must focus on...
‣ Cost management rather than revenue enhancement
‣ The institution’s core educational mission rather than pursuing new
sources of revenue and status
‣ Strategic choices rather than short-term fixes
Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education

54. ‣ Balancing ACCESS and QUALITY
‣ Leveraging strategic intelligence
‣ Focusing on what matters most
‣ Letting go of less effective strategies
‣ Willingness to sunset programs that have atrophied
‣ Monitoring ROI
‣ Continuous improvement

55. “Skate to where
the puck will be.”
-- Wayne Gretzky
Final
Thoughts

56. Final
Thoughts
“Be the change you want to
see in the world.”
--Gandhi

57. Undesired
Behaviors Faulty Mental
Me-Centered Maps
Attitudes
Ineffective
Teaching
Unproductive
Methodologies
Strategies
Archaic
Policies Decisions Void
of Data
Calcified Practices

58. Final
Thoughts
To thrive in the future, you must
have the intelligence that allows
your organization to FOCUS on
the right strategic issues and the
institutional WILL to act.

59. Dr. Jim Black
jimblack@semworks.net
www.semworks.net