Addis Ababa presentation on extrapolation domain analysis

1. Adapting to Change: How to Accelerate Impact J. Rubiano1 S. Cook2, B. Douthwaite3, M.Rajasekaran2, V.Soto3 1 King’sCollege, University of London, jerubiano@gmail.com 2 Basin Focal Project, CPWF 3 International Center for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT, Colombia. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

2. This analysis shows where local projects have regional or global potential to change the lives of millions. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

3. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Extrapolation domains for the PN15 Quesungual Project

4. EDA 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

5. What is this work useful for? Assuming successful project interventions (technological/ institutional) To identify the potential for wide scale adoption (scaling out) and its impact while linked with Global (B&SEM) To link research with development (partnerships) Add value to individual PNs’ and the CPWF Guide Investors (SDC, WB…etc…) 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

6. Outline Overall concept How the method works? A graphical example An example from a CPWF project Where to next? Assessment Recomendations 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

7. What’s a right bed for my seeds? 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

8. Pilot sites of 11 CPWF projects (nursery) 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

9. The extrapolation problem Where else can we go with these projects? 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

10. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 A knowledge common sense game 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

11. It is black 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

12. It is hairy 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

13. Has more than 2 legs 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

14. It is not a pet 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

15. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

16. Back to the CPWF How to realise about the potential of the CPWF projects? How to wisely use information? End of phase 1, 40+ CPWF funded projects Knowledge Improving our ability to adapt 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

17. Use evidence and knowledge to estimate the likelihood of an event Given an evidence… Black (one in four) - Uncertain Hairy (three in four) - Maybe Has more than three legs (two in four) - Perhaps It’s not a pet (one in one) - Certain The inference is a … 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

18. The extrapolation problem: Where else can we go with these projects? Knowledge Tell us factors are important Data About the original and target location About the distribution of important factors A method To link these two components 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

19. How would I know a particular place is a good site for a project? From the project sites we know that particular factors are important for the project (e.g): Stony soils Mid altitude ranges Low to medium precipitation Technical institutional support Prevalence of poverty Etc… From spatial analysis we also know how important these factors are for the project 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

20. How to weight the contribution of each factor? 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

21. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Pantropical world Important factors Research sites

22. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 1. Weights of Evidence Area=173 Pilot sites=20 Prior Prob=0.115 Factor Area = 22 Pilot sites in Factor Area = 8

23. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 2. Weights of Evidence Area=173 Pilot sites=20 Prior Prob=0.115 Factor Area = 22 Pilot sites in Factor Area = 8 Conditional Probabilities A. Factor and sites B. Factor but no sites C. No Factor but sites D. No Factor no sites W- = ln C/D W+ = ln A/B

24. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 4. Weights of Evidence Conditional Probabilities A. Pattern and sites B. Pattern but no sites C. No pattern but sites D. No pattern no sites W- = ln C/D W+ = ln A/B Odds Post = ln (Odds Prior + ∑(W+ +W-) Post Prob = Odds Post /(1+ Odds Post ) Area=173 Pilot sites=20 Prior Prob=0.115 Evidential Pattern Area = 22 Pilot sites in Pattern = 8 Test of Conditional Independence of the evidential layers Posterior Probability=0.14 P(SjF1F2) =[P(F2jS) P(F1jS) P(S) ] / [P(F2) P(F1)]

25. How would I know a particular place is a good site for a project? Summarizing up to here…. We use the contribution of each factor (positive and negative weights) Associate this information with the basic knowledge of the site (prior probability of pilot sites) Calculate a value per each potential new site (posterior probability) 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

26. How to read results? Check for total conditional independence and uncertainty Organised results in maps for dialogue with project team members Iterate after adjustments Review results to the light of complementary information 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

27. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

28. Quesungual seed sites 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

30. Climate (length of dry season) (Jones et al., 2005)

31. Slope (From SRTM data, Jarvis et al., 2006)

32. Water availability (Proximity to water sources, from Lehner et al., 2004)

33. Access to markets (Nelson, 2006)

35. Agriculture and Livestock productivity

36. Agricultural subsistence systems

37. Land Tenure

38. Soils Type (Shallow soils)Community and Institutional Participation/support

39. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Location of prospecting sites for the PN15 Quesungual Project

40. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

41. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Area Population

42. 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008 Summary of Feedback

44. Data availability is a key constraint but solvable

45. Local knowledge will improve its validity

46. EDA, in general, is a useful starting point for the promotion of innovative techniques to new locations

47. A recognition that suitable sites are not the unique guarantee for successful scaling out of interventions

48. Does not work for all type of projects2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

49. Recommendations Incorporateit in futureprojects’ development More dialog at the beginning of projects to ensure the validation of variables to be used Capture local knowledge Use it as anaidforpartnershipsearch Dynamic elements should be introduced To allow the generation of different EDAs under different scenarios A Country level EDA Use of higher resolution data To target more specific locations for intervention 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008

50. Thanks 2nd International Forum on Food and Water, Ethiopia 10th to 14th of November 2008