The 2012 campaign to re-elect U.S. President Barack Obama took data and testing to a new level, not just in the field but in its digital operations as well. The campaign raised over half a billion dollars online, much of which can be traced directly to the rigorous testing and data-driven decision-making that defined the campaign’s culture. This rapid-fire training session will give you an insider’s view of the campaign’s most effective techniques for raising money and mobilizing supporters online, particularly through email. The campaign’s Director of Digital Analytics, Amelia Showalter, will show you how to design experiments that go beyond basic split testing, how to incorporate demographic and behavioral data into your outreach, and how to foster a culture of testing and innovation. Plus, you’ll learn surprising lessons and anecdotes from inside the campaign, with the goal of helping you brainstorm new ways to optimize your own digital operations.
3. But victory was never assured
Big-spending groups called Super-PACs were
largely supporting Romney
The progressive base was less enthusiastic
than in 2008
Obama was usually ahead in the polls, but the
advantage was narrow and volatile
5. So how did we win?
Massive numbers of field offices
786 Obama field offices vs. 284 Romney offices
In Ohio:
Obama Romney
Field offices are where hundreds of paid
staffers organized tens of thousands of
volunteers to mobilize millions of voters
Source: TheMonkeyCage.Org
6. So how did we win?
Sophisticated technology and targeting
Giant data & micro-targeting operation
Fully integrated databases
Smarter new methods of targeting TV ads
New technology for social sharing, polling place
lookup, phone banking, volunteer
mobilization, vote tracking, election day rapid
response
Thousands of staffers in Chicago HQ and the
battleground states
7. All of that costs money
In 2008, Obama campaign raised $750 million
Not enough to beat Romney 2012 & Super-PACs
But fundraising was more difficult in 2012
President less available for fundraising events
In early campaign, we saw average online
donation was half of what it had been in 2008
People were giving less, and less often
We had to be smarter, and more tenacious
8. Obama 2012 Digital Department
Digital department was very focused on
data, using evidence to drive decisions
We had a culture of testing
Constantly looking for ways to improve
Humility was required
Creativity was encouraged
Lots of staff to create content, run
experiments, analyze results, develop new
technology
9. What impact can testing have?
Test sends Full send (in millions)
version Subject line donors money
v1s1 Hey 263 $17,646 $4
v1s2 Two things: 268 $18,830
v1s3 Your turn 276 $22,380 $3
v2s1 Hey 300 $17,644
v2s2 My opponent 246 $13,795 $2
v2s3 You decide 222 $27,185
v3s1 Hey 370 $29,976 $1
v3s2 Last night 307 $16,945
v3s3 Stand with me today 381 $25,881 $0
v4s1 Hey 444 $25,643 ACTUAL IF IF
v4s2 This is my last campaign 369 $24,759 ($3.7m) SENDING SENDING
v4s3 [NAME] 514 $34,308 AVG WORST
v5s1 Hey 353 $22,190
There won't be many more
v5s2 of these deadlines 273 $22,405
$2.2 million additional revenue
v5s3 What you saw this week 263 $21,014 from sending best draft vs.
v6s1 Hey 363 $25,689 worst, or $1.5 million additional
v6s2 Let's win. 237 $17,154
v6s3 Midnight deadline 352 $23,244
from sending best vs. average
10. Testing = constant improvement
Little improvements add up
Improving 1% here and 2% there isn’t a lot at
first, but over time it adds up
11. Testing = data-driven decisions
We don’t have all the answers
Conventional wisdom is often wrong
Gut instinct is often wrong
On the Obama campaign we had this thing
called the Email Derby…
Even the experts can’t reliably predict the most
effective messages
Listen to your audience!
12. Experiments: Email Volume
More email = more donations
People say they get too much email
But our experiment showed that sending a higher
volume of fundraising emails led to more
donations, without dire consequences
Implementing a “more email” policy probably
led to $20-30 million in additional revenue for
the campaign
13. Experiments: Ugly vs. pretty
At first we tried making emails prettier, with slick-
looking buttons and nice formatting
That failed, so we asked: what about ugly instead?
Ugly yellow highlighting got us better results
But at some point it lost its novelty and stopped
working – always important to re-test!
14. Experiments: Personalization
Adding “drop-in sentences” that reference people’s
past behavior can increase conversion rates
Example: asking recent donors for more money
…it's going to take a lot more of us to …it's going to take a lot more of us to
match them. match them.
Will you donate $25 or more today? You stepped up recently to help out --
thank you. We all need to dig a little
deeper if we're going to win, so I'm
asking you to pitch in again. Will you
donate $25 or more today?
The added sentence doubled the donation rate
Confirmed in several similar experiments
15. Technologies: Saved Payment Info
Campaign introduced “Quick Donate”
system, allowing donors the option of saving
their credit card info for easier donating later
Allowed one-click donations within email
16. Obama 2012: Digital Department
Raised over half a billion dollars online
Recruited tens of thousands of volunteers
Publicized thousands of events and rallies
Did I mention raising half a billion dollars?
Conservatively, testing resulted in about $100-
200 million in additional revenue
17. Digital Department Basics
Grew from a small team in spring 2011 to a
department of 200+ in 2012
Outbound (email, social, mobile, blog)
Ads
Front-End Development
Design
Video
Project management
Digital Analytics
18. Digital Analytics
Goal was to help all the other teams do better
Design & implement experiments
Analyze & report results
Provide data sets
Three overlapping skill groups within team:
Database management (SQL, Python)
Data analysis (Stata, R, SPSS)
Web analytics (Google Analytics, Optimizely)
19. Testing requires content
Content creators
Need more of these than you think
Obama team had 18 email writers, 4 social media
writers, many designers and ad producers
More people = more ideas
Front-end developers
Create new pages, improve user experience, etc
20. Conclusions
Data-driven campaigning helped Obama win
Big groups of smart people can accomplish a lot!
But you don’t have to have a staff of hundreds to
have a good testing program
Train existing staffers, hire more when you can
Foster a culture of testing: every piece of
communication is an opportunity to test something
Even a small list can be split in two – do what you can
Notas del editor
Anecdote: We were terrible at predicting the winner