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Forecast of Population by Age Cohort
               for the
     Langley Local Health Area
     (City of Langley + Township of Langley)




      FROM THE
                   ECONOMIC
                  DEVELOPMENT
                 CO-ORDINATOR’S
                                     DESK




                                               July 2009
Highlights
          Year     Persons       As % of       Persons         As % of           Total
                  Aged <20          Total     Aged 60+            Total     Population
                               Population                    Population
          1986        23,863       32.8%           9,826         13.5%           72,851
          1996        31,572       29.5%          15,815         14.8%          107,178
          2006        31,738       26.0%          21,610         17.7%          122,219
          2016        35,176       22.4%          33,206         21.1%          157,264
          2026        43,677       22.2%          48,692         24.7%          197,088
          2036        49,211       20.9%          61,798         26.3%          234,944


  For the period 1986 to 2036, the total population within the Langley Local Health Area (City of
  Langley plus Township of Langley) is expected to grow by 223% (an additional 162,100
  people). During the same period, the population aged less than 20 is forecast to increase by
  106% while the population aged 60+ is forecast to increase by 529%.

  In 1986 approximately 1 out of every 3 residents in the Langley Local Health Area was aged
  less than 20. (2nd highest proportion of youngsters for a Local Health Area in Metro
  Vancouver)

  By 2036, approximately 1 out of every 5 residents in the Langley Local Health Area will be
  aged less than 20. (3rd highest proportion of youngsters for a Local Health Area in Metro
  Vancouver)

  In 1986 approximately 1 out of every 7 residents in the Langley Local Health Area was aged 60
  or more. (6th lowest proportion of seniors for a Local Health Area in Metro Vancouver)

  By 2036, approximately 1 out of every 4 residents in the Langley Local Health Area will be
  aged 60 or more. (3rd lowest proportion of seniors for a Local Health Area in Metro Vancouver)




SOURCE:    March 2009 population projections by BC STATS, Ministry of Management Services,
           Government of BC (P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33)

           Analysis and graphs by Township of Langley’s Economic Development Co-ordinator
Population Forecast for Langleys (City + Township):
                                                                    2009 to 2036
  240,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       234,944


  220,000


  200,000


  180,000


  160,000


  140,000

                 130,530
  120,000
                 7/1/2009

                            7/1/2010

                                       7/1/2011

                                                   7/1/2012

                                                              7/1/2013

                                                                         7/1/2014

                                                                                    7/1/2015

                                                                                               7/1/2016

                                                                                                          7/1/2017

                                                                                                                     7/1/2018

                                                                                                                                7/1/2019

                                                                                                                                           7/1/2020

                                                                                                                                                      7/1/2021

                                                                                                                                                                 7/1/2022

                                                                                                                                                                            7/1/2023

                                                                                                                                                                                       7/1/2024

                                                                                                                                                                                                  7/1/2025

                                                                                                                                                                                                             7/1/2026

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        7/1/2027

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   7/1/2028

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              7/1/2029

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         7/1/2030

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7/1/2031

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               7/1/2032

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          7/1/2033

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     7/1/2034

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  7/1/2035

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             7/1/2036
   SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009)




The Province is forecasting an additional 104,000 people will choose to live in the Langleys within the next 27 years. This is
almost 38,000 more than the Province forecasted three years earlier. The additional population amounts to a compounded
growth rate of 2.2% per year.
Population Growth Forecast for Local Health Areas in Metro Vancouver:
                                                   2008 to 2036
                                                Delta
               North Vancouvers (City + District)
                                          Vancouver
                  West Vancouver/Bowen Island
                                          Richmond
                         White Rock/South Surrey
                       Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows
                                  New Westminster
                        Surrey (w/o South Surrey)
                                            Burnaby
 Coquitlam/Poco/Port Moody/Balcarra/Anmore
                      Langleys (City + Township)                                                                    92.2%


                                                      0%                    20%          40%   60%     80%             100%
   SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009)




According to the Province’s forecast, the Langley Local Health Area will experience the highest percentage increase of the 12
local health areas within the Metro Vancouver region.
% of Total Population Aged Less Than 20 in Langley Local Health Area:
                                               1986 to 2036
        35%
                         32.8%
        30%
                                                  29.5%

        25%                                                                 26.0%

                                                                                         22.4%   22.2%
        20%                                                                                                    20.9%


        15%

        10%

          5%

          0%
                         1986                     1996                     2006          2016    2026          2036

   SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009)




Despite the declining proportion of youngsters as a percent of total population, those aged less than 20 in the Langleys will
actually increase by more than 25,000 during the next 27 years.
% of Population Aged Less Than 20 by Local Health Area in Metro Vancouver:
                                                       2036
                                            Richmond
                                   New Westminster

                                           Vancouver

                          White Rock/South Surrey
                                              Burnaby

                 North Vancouvers (City + District)

                    West Vancouver/Bowen Island
                                                  Delta

   Coquitlam/Poco/Port Moody/Balcarra/Anmore

                        Langleys (City + Township)                                                               20.9%

                        Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows

                         Surrey (w/o South Surrey)

                                                        0%            3%            6%   9%   12%   15%   18%   21%      24%
   SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009)




The Langleys’ rank of second highest proportion of youngsters in 2006 moves to third highest 30 years later.
% of Total Population Aged 60+ in Langley Local Health Area:
                                              1986 to 2036
        30%


        25%                                                                                                  26.3%
                                                                                                 24.7%


        20%                                                                              21.1%

                                                                            17.7%
        15%
                                                   14.8%
                         13.5%

        10%


          5%


          0%
                         1986                     1996                     2006          2016    2026       2036

   SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009)




Currently (2008) there are 23,300 residents aged 60 or more years old in the Langleys, and by the year 2036, this number will
have almost tripled to 61,800.
% of Population Aged 60+ by Local Health Area in Metro Vancouver:
                                                    2036
   Coquitlam/Poco/Port Moody/Balcarra/Anmore
                                              Burnaby
                        Langleys (City + Township)                                                         26.3%

                                           Vancouver
                         Surrey (w/o South Surrey)

                        Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows
                                   New Westminster
                North Vancouvers (City + District)
                    West Vancouver/Bowen Island
                                                 Delta
                                           Richmond
                          White Rock/South Surrey

                                                       0%             5%           10%   15%   20%   25%           30%   35%   40%
   SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009)




Whereas the Langleys currently have the second lowest proportion of seniors in 2006, this is forecast to move to the third
lowest of all Local Health Areas in Metro Vancouver 30 years later.
Population by Gender & Age Cohorts in Langley Local Health Area:
                                                  2006
       90 +

      80-84

      70-74

      60-64

      50-54
Age




      40-44

      30-34

      20-24

      10-14

      00-04

         10,000          8,000           6,000           4,000   2,000       0        2,000         4,000            6,000           8,000          10,000
                                                                         Population
 SOURCE: B.C. Stats - March, 2009 P.E.O.P.L.E. 33 Projection                          NOTE: Langley Local Health Area = City of Langley + Township of Langley
Population by Gender & Age Cohorts in Langley Local Health Area:
                                                  2036
       90 +

      80-84

      70-74

      60-64

      50-54
Age




      40-44

      30-34

      20-24

      10-14

      00-04

         10,000         8,000           6,000           4,000   2,000       0        2,000          4,000           6,000           8,000           10,000
                                                                        Population
 SOURCE: B.C. Stats - March, 2009 P.E.O.P.L.E. 33 Projection                         NOTE: Langley Local Health Area = City of Langley + Township of Langley
Population by Age Cohort for Langley Local Health Area:
                                            2006 and 2036

20,000                                                                                                                  2006     2036



16,000


12,000


  8,000


  4,000


       0
       00-04    05-09    10-14    15-19    20-24   25-29    30-34    35-39    40-44   45-49   50-54    55-59    60-64    65-69    70-74    75-79    80-84    85-89     90 +

SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009)                   NOTE: Langley Local Health Area = City of Langley + Township of Langley

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Population Forecast For Langley Lha Jul 2009

  • 1. Forecast of Population by Age Cohort for the Langley Local Health Area (City of Langley + Township of Langley) FROM THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CO-ORDINATOR’S DESK July 2009
  • 2. Highlights Year Persons As % of Persons As % of Total Aged <20 Total Aged 60+ Total Population Population Population 1986 23,863 32.8% 9,826 13.5% 72,851 1996 31,572 29.5% 15,815 14.8% 107,178 2006 31,738 26.0% 21,610 17.7% 122,219 2016 35,176 22.4% 33,206 21.1% 157,264 2026 43,677 22.2% 48,692 24.7% 197,088 2036 49,211 20.9% 61,798 26.3% 234,944 For the period 1986 to 2036, the total population within the Langley Local Health Area (City of Langley plus Township of Langley) is expected to grow by 223% (an additional 162,100 people). During the same period, the population aged less than 20 is forecast to increase by 106% while the population aged 60+ is forecast to increase by 529%. In 1986 approximately 1 out of every 3 residents in the Langley Local Health Area was aged less than 20. (2nd highest proportion of youngsters for a Local Health Area in Metro Vancouver) By 2036, approximately 1 out of every 5 residents in the Langley Local Health Area will be aged less than 20. (3rd highest proportion of youngsters for a Local Health Area in Metro Vancouver) In 1986 approximately 1 out of every 7 residents in the Langley Local Health Area was aged 60 or more. (6th lowest proportion of seniors for a Local Health Area in Metro Vancouver) By 2036, approximately 1 out of every 4 residents in the Langley Local Health Area will be aged 60 or more. (3rd lowest proportion of seniors for a Local Health Area in Metro Vancouver) SOURCE: March 2009 population projections by BC STATS, Ministry of Management Services, Government of BC (P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33) Analysis and graphs by Township of Langley’s Economic Development Co-ordinator
  • 3. Population Forecast for Langleys (City + Township): 2009 to 2036 240,000 234,944 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 130,530 120,000 7/1/2009 7/1/2010 7/1/2011 7/1/2012 7/1/2013 7/1/2014 7/1/2015 7/1/2016 7/1/2017 7/1/2018 7/1/2019 7/1/2020 7/1/2021 7/1/2022 7/1/2023 7/1/2024 7/1/2025 7/1/2026 7/1/2027 7/1/2028 7/1/2029 7/1/2030 7/1/2031 7/1/2032 7/1/2033 7/1/2034 7/1/2035 7/1/2036 SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009) The Province is forecasting an additional 104,000 people will choose to live in the Langleys within the next 27 years. This is almost 38,000 more than the Province forecasted three years earlier. The additional population amounts to a compounded growth rate of 2.2% per year.
  • 4. Population Growth Forecast for Local Health Areas in Metro Vancouver: 2008 to 2036 Delta North Vancouvers (City + District) Vancouver West Vancouver/Bowen Island Richmond White Rock/South Surrey Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows New Westminster Surrey (w/o South Surrey) Burnaby Coquitlam/Poco/Port Moody/Balcarra/Anmore Langleys (City + Township) 92.2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009) According to the Province’s forecast, the Langley Local Health Area will experience the highest percentage increase of the 12 local health areas within the Metro Vancouver region.
  • 5. % of Total Population Aged Less Than 20 in Langley Local Health Area: 1986 to 2036 35% 32.8% 30% 29.5% 25% 26.0% 22.4% 22.2% 20% 20.9% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009) Despite the declining proportion of youngsters as a percent of total population, those aged less than 20 in the Langleys will actually increase by more than 25,000 during the next 27 years.
  • 6. % of Population Aged Less Than 20 by Local Health Area in Metro Vancouver: 2036 Richmond New Westminster Vancouver White Rock/South Surrey Burnaby North Vancouvers (City + District) West Vancouver/Bowen Island Delta Coquitlam/Poco/Port Moody/Balcarra/Anmore Langleys (City + Township) 20.9% Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows Surrey (w/o South Surrey) 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 24% SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009) The Langleys’ rank of second highest proportion of youngsters in 2006 moves to third highest 30 years later.
  • 7. % of Total Population Aged 60+ in Langley Local Health Area: 1986 to 2036 30% 25% 26.3% 24.7% 20% 21.1% 17.7% 15% 14.8% 13.5% 10% 5% 0% 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009) Currently (2008) there are 23,300 residents aged 60 or more years old in the Langleys, and by the year 2036, this number will have almost tripled to 61,800.
  • 8. % of Population Aged 60+ by Local Health Area in Metro Vancouver: 2036 Coquitlam/Poco/Port Moody/Balcarra/Anmore Burnaby Langleys (City + Township) 26.3% Vancouver Surrey (w/o South Surrey) Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows New Westminster North Vancouvers (City + District) West Vancouver/Bowen Island Delta Richmond White Rock/South Surrey 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009) Whereas the Langleys currently have the second lowest proportion of seniors in 2006, this is forecast to move to the third lowest of all Local Health Areas in Metro Vancouver 30 years later.
  • 9. Population by Gender & Age Cohorts in Langley Local Health Area: 2006 90 + 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 Age 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 00-04 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Population SOURCE: B.C. Stats - March, 2009 P.E.O.P.L.E. 33 Projection NOTE: Langley Local Health Area = City of Langley + Township of Langley
  • 10. Population by Gender & Age Cohorts in Langley Local Health Area: 2036 90 + 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 Age 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 00-04 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Population SOURCE: B.C. Stats - March, 2009 P.E.O.P.L.E. 33 Projection NOTE: Langley Local Health Area = City of Langley + Township of Langley
  • 11. Population by Age Cohort for Langley Local Health Area: 2006 and 2036 20,000 2006 2036 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 00-04 05-09 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90 + SOURCE: BC Stats, Ministry of Management Services, P.E.O.P.L.E. Run 33 (March 2009) NOTE: Langley Local Health Area = City of Langley + Township of Langley