This document analyzes welfare state efforts across 23 OECD countries using fuzzy set ideal type analysis. It establishes four sets - protective, productive, protective-plus, and productive-plus - based on levels of income protection, employment protection, education spending, and job training funding. Countries' membership in these sets is evaluated over time. The analysis finds that Finland exemplifies a protective-productive type, while the US alternates between productive and weak-protective. Few countries show a clear shift towards stronger investment in human capital through education and training.

1. Towards Productive Welfare?
A Comparative Analysis of Welfare State
Effort in 23 OECD Countries
John Hudson & Stefan Kühner
University of York, UK
Australian Social Policy Conference 2007

2. Productive Welfare
• Challenges: Globalisation, Knowledge Economy
• Response: Investment in Human Capital?
– Active Labour Market Policies
– Education
• Variously:
– A new type of welfare regime
– A reorientation of welfare state
– Neglected dimension of welfare state modelling
– Incompatible with strong social protection
– Compatible with strong social protection

3. Welfare State Modelling
• Esping-Andersen dominates
– Three Worlds of Welfare
– Focus on social rights
– Decommodification Index (+)
• Protective not Productive Dimensions
• Distinct & Differing Dimensions?

4. Multi-Dimensionality
• How best to capture the welfare state?
• Dependant variable problem:
– How to capture the multidimensional character of welfare states?
• Decommodification index:
– One dimensional?
– Too narrow?
• Means mask important differences → ‘compensation effects’:
– Standardised aggregated indices, factor analysis, cluster analysis
• Solution: Fuzzy Set Ideal Type Analysis

5. Fuzzy Sets
• Cases have varying membership of sets
– 0 Fully Out
– 1 Fully In
• Boundaries of sets drawn
conceptually
– Not all variation matters
– Reflect substantive
knowledge

6. Fuzzy Set Ideal Type Analysis
• Combines n-fuzzy sets to categorise ideal types
• Number of types determined
conceptually Generous
– 2k property spaces
Redistributive
GR ~GR
• Establishes membership G~R ~G~R
of types via Boolean logic

7. Productive-Protective Types
• Four Fuzzy Sets:
– Protective:
• Income Protection
• Employment Protection
– Productive:
• Investment in Education
• Investment in Labour Market Training

8. Operationalising Our Sets
Productive:
• Education spending as share of public social & education spending
• Training component of ALMP budgets as share of total ALMP budgets
Protective:
• Net replacement rates for single, long-term unemployed
• OECD Employment Policy Legislation (EPL 2) Index
Sample:
• 23 Countries
• 1994, 1998, 2003

9. Productive-Protective Types
Productive Protective
Productive-Plus Protective-Plus
Weak Productive Protective
Productive Protective
Weak Productive Weak Protective
Weak

10. Findings: 2003
Productive-Protective
Finland
Productive-Plus Protective-Plus
Denmark Sweden
Norway Netherlands
Austria
Finland
Productive Weak-Product-Protective Protective
Greece Belgium
United States
Germany
Ireland
New Zealand
Switzerland
Italy
Weak-Productive Weak-Protective
Korea
Canada Spain
France
Czech Republic
Japan
Portugal
Weak
United Kingdom
Australia
United Kingdom

11. Findings: Time-Series
1994 1998 2003
Productive-Protective
Productive-Plus NOR
NZ
Productive USA
Weak-Productive
SWE
Protective-Plus NET
AUT
Weak-Productive-Protective
SWI
Protective BEL
Weak-Protective SPA
Weak

12. Findings: Time-Series
1994 1998 2003
Productive-Protective FIN
Productive-Plus DEN
Productive
Weak-Productive
Protective-Plus
GRE
Weak-Productive-Protective ITA
Protective
Weak-Protective
Weak

13. Findings: Time-Series
1994 1998 2003
Productive-Protective
Productive-Plus
Productive
Weak-Productive CAN
Protective-Plus
Weak-Productive-Protective KOR
IRE
GER
Protective
CZR
Weak-Protective JAP POR
FRA
UK
Weak AUS

14. Conclusions
• Utility of fuzzy set ideal type analysis
• East Asian states not the exemplars of productivism
• Protective & Productive dimensions can be combined
• Finland and the USA alternate models?
• Little evidence of general shift towards productivism