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Kenya adapt mitig final
- 1. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON KENYA
- 2. Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo University of Pretoria on behalf of Barrack Okoba, Carla Roncoli, Claudia Ringler, and Mario Herrero Copenhagen, COP 15 December 11, 2009
- 4. WHY CLIMATE MATTERS FOR KENYA Source: IFPRI
- 6. Source: IPCC (2007), Herrero (2009) KENYA: CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION Small increase expected in Dec-Jan
- 7. 2000-2050 Green= increase in yields Brown= decrease in yields Source: Jones and Thornton (2003) IMPACT OF CC ON MAIZE YIELDS Kenya
- 8. Source: IFPRI IMPACT OF CC ON MAIZE YIELDS Kenya
- 9. IMPACT OF CC ON CHILD MALNUTRITION (%) Projected to 2025 Source: IFPRI
- 10. SYNERGIES BETWEEN ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
- 11. SYNERGIES & TRADEOFFS Adaptation Mitigation Profitability
- 13. Source: Timm Tennigkeit MITIGATION: POTENTIAL IN AGRICULTURE Commodity Smallholder Livestock-Maize Systems Maize Biofuels Coffee Tea Sugar Area available in ha (million) 3 1.6 Semi-arid: 0.9 0.15 0.15 0.14 GHG mitigation activities SALM: Agronomy Nutrient mgmt Water mgmt Agroforestry Set aside land Residue mgmt. Jatropha 1) Fuel-switch 2) AR 1) Shade trees, multiple cropping 2) Mulching 3) Fertilizer use eff Inter-cropping no option in Kenya 1) No/ burning of residues 2) Mulching systems 3) Fertilizer related emissions Existing extension service - - - + ++ + Tech. GHG mitigation potential in t CO 2 e/ha/y. 2 - 5 0.5 1) 1-12 2) 2.5-5.0 High bandwidth 3 – 8 ----- 7.8 in 6 years Economic mit. potential ++ ? ? ++ 0 +
- 16. FARMER PERCEPTIONS OF ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
- 17. Farmers Are Aware Of The Link Between Agriculture And Climate Change Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351
- 18. “ Which Agricultural Practices Can Help Reduce Climate Change?” Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351; multiple responses possible 61%
- 19. “ What Have You Done In Response To Perceived Climate Change?” (%) Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351, multiple responses possible
- 20. “ What Would You Like To Do In Response To Perceived Climate Change?” (%) Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351, multiple responses possible
- 21. “ Why Are You Not Implementing Desired Adaptations?” Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351
- 22. “ Which Developments Do You Need Most Urgently?” Only responses > 20% included Source: KARI-IFPRI survey, n=351, multiple responses possible
- 23. “ Which Solutions are Most Effective and Desirable to Deal with CC Impacts? ?” Source: focus groups, KARI-UGA, n=69 men 1 2 3 4 Ranking High Potential Low Potential Nyeri Syaya Mbere Njoro Garissa Irrigation technology/water infrastructure 1 1 3 2 Farmer organizations 2 Training, capacity building 4 1 4 Education 1 Credit/capital 3 1 2 2 Seed/seedlings provision 2 Mechanization of agriculture 3 Corruption eradication 4 3 Markets, market controls 4 Natural forest restoration 4 Moving from pastoralism to farming 3
- 24. “ What are the causes of climate change?” Source: focus groups, KARI-UGA, n=69
- 25. CONCLUSIONS
Notas del editor
- A growing body of research suggests that there are in fact cost-effective options for agricultural mitigation . These include changing crop mixes to include more perennials and crops with deeper root systems that remain in the soil after the crop dies. Cultivation systems that leave crop residues and reduce deep tillage increase soil carbon and also crop productivity. We can shift land use from annual crops to perennial crops, pasture and agroforestry. A key issue is MRV - Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable mitigation outcomes. There are promising technologies – micro satellites with 6 m resolution, inexpensive soil carbon tests – that we need to make available by the time a post-Kyoto agreement comes into effect.