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Vol. 11, No. 58 / March 27, 2013
In addition to two very important grain reports (see DLR Analyst Estimates of USDA March Hogs and Pigs Report
3/26), USDA will also release on Thursday (3PM ET) the
Source: Dow Jones. Percent of Year Ago
results of its quarterly survey of hogs and pigs inventories
as of March 1, 2013. On average, analysts expect total hogs All hogs and pigs on March 1 100.7 100.3 - 101.6
and pigs inventories as of March 1 to be 0.7% higher than the
Kept for breeding 100.3 99.7 - 101.2
previous year. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on the ground
Kept for marketing 100.8 100.3 - 101.7
is a function of the number of pigs that were added to the overall
inventory on December 1 (pig crop, imports) and the number of Dec-Feb pig crop 101.2 100.6 - 101.7
hogs and pigs that were removed (slaughter, death loss). So far Dec-Feb pigs per litter 101.1 100.6 - 101.5
the balance sheet tends to be close to the average of analysts esti- Dec-Feb farrowings 100.1 99.7 - 100.3
mates, although much still depends on key assumptions, especial- Mar-May farrowing intentions 98.7 97.9 - 99.8
ly about the size of the pig crop in the past quarter. Analysts
Jun-Aug farrowing intentions 100.9 98.9 - 101.6
expect the pig crop for the December through February quarter to
be 1.2% larger than the previous year, an increase that adds Hogs weighing under 50 lbs 100.9 100.4 - 101.5
about 350,000 head to the available supply for the quarter com- Hogs weighing 50 to 119 lbs 100.7 100.1 - 102.7
pared to the previous year. One caveat in this regard is that this Hogs weighing 120-179 lbs 99.9 99.4 - 101.5
assumes no revisions to previous year’s numbers. The pace of Hogs weighing 180 and over 101.6 99.7 - 103.8
hog imports from Canada was notably slower this year compared
to the year before and that will reduce the number of hogs that SOWS FARROWING VS. PIG CROP: 2000 - 2013, QUARTERLY
entered the total hog supply for the quarter. Weekly data from 31,500 3,270
USDA shows that for the period December through February, 30,500 Pig Crop 3,190
total hogs and pig imports from Canada were down about 9.5% 29,500
from a year ago. This will help offset about a third of the gains in 3,110
the pig crop. Then there is the issue of hogs that were removed 28,500
3,030
during the quarter. Based on the USDA monthly slaughter statis- 27,500
2,950
tics, hog slaughter for the period Dec-Feb was 28.019 million 26,500
head, down 1.8% from a year ago. Using these inputs and also 25,500
2,870
accounting for a normal death rate, one can see why hogs and 2,790
pigs inventories as of March 1, 2013 are expected to be larger 24,500
Farrowings
2,710
than they were the previous year. Again, keep an eye on those 23,500
USDA revisions of prior quarters and especially on the farrowing 22,500 2,630
numbers for the Dec - Feb quarter. 21,500
estimates
2,550
The industry has benefited in recent years from improve- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ments in productivity, with the number of pigs per litter steadily
increasing. While the pace is expected to slow down, especially as
could have total hog inventory that is smaller than it was on June
group housing is adopted more broadly, the expectation is for lit-
1, 2012.
ter size to continue to expand, probably at a rate of about 1-1.5%
for the remainder of the year. This is important when consider- The breeding herd estimate is for only a modest increase
ing the analyst estimates for Mar-May and Jun-Aug farrowing compared to previous quarter (about 20,000 head) and also a
intentions. On average, analysts expect farrowings for Mar - May modest gain on year ago levels. Female slaughter so far this year
to be down 1.3% from a year ago. Even with more pigs per litter, has been running below year ago levels. According to the latest
it is possible that the pig crop for the quarter could be down com- data from University of Missouri, year to date sow slaughter is
pared to the previous year. That decline combined with higher down 1% while gilt slaughter is down 3.5% from a year ago. Sow
expected slaughter (see market hog inventory expectations above) prices have increased sharply in recent weeks, another indication
and fewer hogs coming from Canada, implies that by June 1 we that producers are gearing up for lower feed prices and higher
production in 2014.
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