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Higher Education at a Crossroads:  The Five Worrisome Trends
Is the Higher Education Bubble About to Burst? ,[object Object]
Higher Education: Easy access to credit for students, fueled demand for higher-priced colleges, fueled application and enrollment growth (especially at for-profits), fueled colleges to borrow more to meet student “needs”,[object Object]
Worry #1The jobless recovery and what it means for families
Worry #2The end of the records: applications and enrollment
Applications to College ,[object Object]
74% of Fall 2008 freshmen applied to three or more colleges, an increase of 13 percentage points over the last 18 years. The percentage of students who submitted seven or more applications also increased, reaching 22% in Fall 2008.SOURCE: National Association for College Admission Counseling
Increases in Undergraduate Enrollment, 1998-2008
Projected Change in Number of High School Graduates 2011-2021
Worry #3Unsustainable tuition rates and student debt
Tuition & Fees SOURCE: The College Board
Tuition & Fees Compared to State Appropriations SOURCE: The College Board
Tuition Discounting Percentage growth since 1990-91 in average price for tuition, fees, room, and board, adjusted for inflation:
Distribution of Debt, 2007-8
Total Debt for Graduate Degree Recipients, 2007-8
Worry #4The for-profit bubble
Undergraduate Enrollment by Type of College, 1998-2008
3-year default rates are 5 times as high as 2-year rates at some colleges
Worry #5Families unwilling to pay big bucks just for the credential
Academically Adrift? ,[object Object]
Asking: What are we paying for? Want quality and job placement. Defining and paying for the core experience..
Academically Adrift? ,[object Object]
45% of students made no gains on the Collegiate Learning Assessment during their first two years in college
36% made no gains over the entire four years

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AACRAO 2011

  • 1. Higher Education at a Crossroads: The Five Worrisome Trends
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Worry #1The jobless recovery and what it means for families
  • 5.
  • 6. Worry #2The end of the records: applications and enrollment
  • 7.
  • 8. 74% of Fall 2008 freshmen applied to three or more colleges, an increase of 13 percentage points over the last 18 years. The percentage of students who submitted seven or more applications also increased, reaching 22% in Fall 2008.SOURCE: National Association for College Admission Counseling
  • 9. Increases in Undergraduate Enrollment, 1998-2008
  • 10. Projected Change in Number of High School Graduates 2011-2021
  • 11. Worry #3Unsustainable tuition rates and student debt
  • 12. Tuition & Fees SOURCE: The College Board
  • 13. Tuition & Fees Compared to State Appropriations SOURCE: The College Board
  • 14. Tuition Discounting Percentage growth since 1990-91 in average price for tuition, fees, room, and board, adjusted for inflation:
  • 16. Total Debt for Graduate Degree Recipients, 2007-8
  • 18. Undergraduate Enrollment by Type of College, 1998-2008
  • 19. 3-year default rates are 5 times as high as 2-year rates at some colleges
  • 20. Worry #5Families unwilling to pay big bucks just for the credential
  • 21.
  • 22. Asking: What are we paying for? Want quality and job placement. Defining and paying for the core experience..
  • 23.
  • 24. 45% of students made no gains on the Collegiate Learning Assessment during their first two years in college
  • 25. 36% made no gains over the entire four years
  • 26. How much faculty demand matters
  • 27. Students who were assigned more books and more papers to write learned more
  • 28. Those who spent more hours studying alone learned more
  • 29. Field of study matters
  • 30. Humanities, social sciences, hard sciences, and math did relatively well.
  • 31.
  • 32. We’re Both in the Information Delivery Business Audrey Williams June: Academic workplace issues Eric Hoover: Admissions | Head Count blog Josh Fischman: Faculty and Technology Jennifer Ruark: Features and Chronicle Review Scott Carlson: Facilities and Architecture Goldie Blumenstyk: College finance | For-profits| Technology transfer Jeff Young: Technology | Teaching David Glenn: Teaching | Curriculum | Assessment
  • 33. What Are the Signs? “Newspapers had a decade to transform themselves before being overtaken by the digital future. They had a lot of advantages: brand names, highly skilled staff members, money in the bank. They were the best in the world at what they did — and yet, it wasn't enough. The difficulties of change and the temptations to hang on and hope for the best were too strong.” -Kevin Cary The Chronicle, April 3, 2009
  • 34. Contact Jeffrey J. Selingo jeff.selingo@chronicle.com Twitter: @jselingo

Notas del editor

  1. So how did many pay for this rise in tuition. Mostly loans, and increasingly private loans. Pay particular attention to the for-profits. I’ll get to that later.This graph only shows undergrads and more and more people are going on to graduate and professional schools. The numbers get even more depressing there.