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Fundamentals of
    Business & Financial Journalism
    Week 2: Covering financial markets

    Jeffrey Timmermans


Monday, 24 September, 12
Using Twitter for news

    ✤   Bloomberg Top Stories

         ✤    @BloombergNow

    ✤   Reuters Top Stories

         ✤    @Reuters

    ✤   Wall Street Journal Top Stories

         ✤    @WSJ


Monday, 24 September, 12
Reporting on markets: what you
    need

    ✤   Understanding of how markets work

    ✤   Market data

    ✤   Up-to-date news/info on other markets/countries

    ✤   Market sources

    ✤   Ability to explain this stuff to readers




Monday, 24 September, 12
Characteristics of markets

    ✤   Bring together buyers (demand) & sellers (supply)

    ✤   Anyone (usually) can participate

    ✤   Products traded are standardized and units of each product are
        interchangeable (fungible)

    ✤   Doesn’t matter who you trade with

    ✤   Trades are all (usually) processed by a central authority

    ✤   Information on all trades is public


Monday, 24 September, 12
Markets: Some numbers


                            Prices                Turnover


                                     Volume
                                                  Index levels
                           Bids
                                         Offers

Monday, 24 September, 12
Markets: Some numbers
                                       Prices are the most often cited

                            Prices                          Turnover
                                      numbers in markets. They can
                                         be prices of shares, bonds,
                                     futures, or the price of a currency
                                     as measured in another currency

                                       Volume
                                                           Index levels
                           Bids
                                                Offers

Monday, 24 September, 12
Markets: Some numbers


                            Prices                   Turnover

                                                  Volume is the number of
                                                 individual units of an asset
                                     Volume    traded (usually in one day), for
                                                    Index levels
                                              example units of shares or bonds
                           Bids
                                         Offers

Monday, 24 September, 12
Markets: Some numbers
                            Turnover is the monetary value
                             of a day’s trading in an asset;
                            Prices
                           basically just volume multiplied
                                                               Turnover
                                by the prevailing price



                                        Volume
                                                               Index levels
                           Bids
                                                 Offers

Monday, 24 September, 12
Markets: Some numbers


                            Prices                           Turnover


                                        Volume
                                  Bids are the prices that would-be
                                                            Index levels
                                   buyers are willing to pay for an
                           Bids   asset; these bids are shown to all
                                          market participants
                                                 Offers

Monday, 24 September, 12
Markets: Some numbers


                            Prices                Turnover


                                     Volume
                                                  Index levels
                           Bids
  Offers are the prices that would-
   be sellers are willing to accept
  for an asset they own; offers are      Offers
  shown to all market participants
Monday, 24 September, 12
Markets: Some numbers


                              Prices                          Turnover


                                         Volume
                             Indexes measure the overall
                           performance of individual assets   Index levels
                                     on a market
                           Bids
                                                 Offers

Monday, 24 September, 12
Market prices

    ✤   Prices in markets are news: they contain information

         ✤    The sum of all market participants’ – people’s – expectations of
              future performance of that asset

    ✤   BUT, just because an asset has a low price in real terms doesn’t mean
        it’s “cheap” or a bargain – or vice versa

         ✤    Berkshire Hathaway’s current price: US$134,584 per share

         ✤    PCCW Ltd.’s current price: HK$3.16 (40 US cents) per share


Monday, 24 September, 12
Types of financial markets

    ✤   Commodities

    ✤   Stocks

    ✤   Foreign Exchange (Forex)

    ✤   Bonds

    ✤   Derivatives




Monday, 24 September, 12
Methods of trading


    ✤   “Open outcry” floor trading (NYSE)

    ✤   “Over the counter” electronic trading (Nasdaq)

    ✤   “Dark pool” private markets

    ✤   Bilateral trading (only two participants)




Monday, 24 September, 12
Photos: Bloomberg (left), AP (right)

Monday, 24 September, 12
Market participants

    ✤   Retail investors (ordinary people)

    ✤   Institutional investors

         ✤    Insurance companies, brokerages, hedge funds

    ✤   Corporations

    ✤   Governments




Monday, 24 September, 12
Types of participants

                                 Investment
                                            Information Leverage
                                    size

             Retail investors      Small      Public      Small

                 Institutional               Public &
                                   Large                 Large
                   investors                  Private
                                             Public &
               Governments         Huge                 Unlimited
                                              Private


Monday, 24 September, 12
Why do they participate?


    ✤   To gain access to capital (funds) for new or existing ventures

    ✤   To put excess funds to use and earn money

    ✤   To hedge (insure) against risks

    ✤   To speculate (bet)




Monday, 24 September, 12
Price formation in markets

    ✤   People wanting to buy make a “bid” at a certain price for a certain
        amount of an asset

    ✤   Those wanting to sell announce an “offer” (or “ask”) price and
        amount

    ✤   People revise their bids or offers until they find a matching offer or
        bid

    ✤   All participants can see this information



Monday, 24 September, 12
Market data
    Screenshot of a Reuters 3000 terminal




Monday, 24 September, 12
Market data (free!)
    Screenshot of Google Finance page (finance.google.com)




Monday, 24 September, 12
Market comment sources

    ✤   “Sell side”                                 ✤   “Buy side”

         ✤    Traders                                   ✤   Mutual funds/ETFs

         ✤    Analysts                                  ✤   Hedge funds

         ✤    Strategists                               ✤   Pension funds


                             ...and don’t forget executives of public
                           companies, lawyers, and ordinary investors




Monday, 24 September, 12
Some key market players


                              Paulson & Co.




             Soros Fund
             Management




Monday, 24 September, 12
Problems with market sources

    ✤   “Talking their book”

    ✤   Unwilling to comment/too busy

    ✤   Spread rumors

    ✤   Don’t really know what’s going on

    ✤   Use jargon

    ✤   Demand anonymity


Monday, 24 September, 12
Market comment: basic structure

    ✤   Change

    ✤   Cause

    ✤   Expectations
                           CCE CCF
    ✤   Comment

    ✤   Context

    ✤   Future


Monday, 24 September, 12
U.S. Stocks Advance, Erasing Earlier Loss,
         Following European Bank Rally
         By Rita Nazareth - Sep 13, 2011
         U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a second day, as French banks
         eased concerns over their access to funding and investors watched for signs of progress in taming
                                                                                                                        Change
         Europe’s debt crisis.

         All 10 main industries in the S&P 500 advanced as gains were led by industrial, raw material and               Cause
         technology companies. The Dow Jones Transportation Average, a proxy for the U.S. economy, jumped
         3.4 percent as airlines rose. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) added more than 1
         percent, following a rally in European lenders. Aetna Inc. (AET) jumped 5.4 percent as the health insurer
         said profit will probably beat its forecast.
                                                                                                                     Expectations?
         The S&P 500 increased 0.9 percent to 1,172.87 at 4 p.m. in New York, after falling as much as 0.4
         percent. The gauge has risen 1.6 percent in two days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 44.73
         points, or 0.4 percent, to 11,105.85 today.

         “Stocks are trading on the news of the day and the news was moderately favorable,” Michael Cuggino,
         who oversees $15 billion at Permanent Portfolio Funds in San Francisco, said in a telephone interview.         Comment
         “While the issues of liquidity and health of the European banking system and the long-term viability of
         the euro are still out there, today is a day where people are looking beyond that. We’ve had a big
         correction. Levels really haven’t gotten back to where they were.”

         The S&P 500 fell as much as 18 percent from a three-year high on April 29 through Aug. 8 on growing
         concern over Europe’s debt crisis and an economic slowdown. Since then, the index has risen 4.8
         percent.
                                                                                                                        Context
         The S&P 500 may drop below a one-year low reached last month because too few stocks have declined
         rapidly enough, according to MF Global Inc.
                                                                                                                        Future
Monday, 24 September, 12
Where to find...

    ✤   Change: market data

    ✤   Cause: world/local events, market sources

    ✤   Expectations: news database, market sources

    ✤   Comment: market sources

    ✤   Context: market data, news database, professional experience

    ✤   Future: market sources, professional experience


Monday, 24 September, 12
Finding “cause”

    ✤   Any big economic news?

    ✤   Any major local news?

    ✤   What’s happening in other markets?

    ✤   Look for sector-wide moves, then individual share moves

    ✤   Don’t always believe traders’ explanations




Monday, 24 September, 12
Finding “context”

    ✤   Biggest advance/decline since                                          ✤   Who’s making money and
        when?                                                                      who’s losing money?

    ✤   How many days in a row up/                                             ✤   Is the event cited as a cause
        down?                                                                      typical or atypical?

    ✤   How much have prices/yields                                            ✤   Is today’s event the beginning
        changed in that time?                                                      or end of a trend?

    ✤   Highest/lowest level since                                             ✤   What’s at stake?
        when?
                                                                               ✤   What happens next?

    Source: The Bloomberg Way: A Guide for Reporters & Editors, 10th Edition

Monday, 24 September, 12

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Class2

  • 1. Fundamentals of Business & Financial Journalism Week 2: Covering financial markets Jeffrey Timmermans Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 2. Using Twitter for news ✤ Bloomberg Top Stories ✤ @BloombergNow ✤ Reuters Top Stories ✤ @Reuters ✤ Wall Street Journal Top Stories ✤ @WSJ Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 3. Reporting on markets: what you need ✤ Understanding of how markets work ✤ Market data ✤ Up-to-date news/info on other markets/countries ✤ Market sources ✤ Ability to explain this stuff to readers Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 4. Characteristics of markets ✤ Bring together buyers (demand) & sellers (supply) ✤ Anyone (usually) can participate ✤ Products traded are standardized and units of each product are interchangeable (fungible) ✤ Doesn’t matter who you trade with ✤ Trades are all (usually) processed by a central authority ✤ Information on all trades is public Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 5. Markets: Some numbers Prices Turnover Volume Index levels Bids Offers Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 6. Markets: Some numbers Prices are the most often cited Prices Turnover numbers in markets. They can be prices of shares, bonds, futures, or the price of a currency as measured in another currency Volume Index levels Bids Offers Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 7. Markets: Some numbers Prices Turnover Volume is the number of individual units of an asset Volume traded (usually in one day), for Index levels example units of shares or bonds Bids Offers Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 8. Markets: Some numbers Turnover is the monetary value of a day’s trading in an asset; Prices basically just volume multiplied Turnover by the prevailing price Volume Index levels Bids Offers Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 9. Markets: Some numbers Prices Turnover Volume Bids are the prices that would-be Index levels buyers are willing to pay for an Bids asset; these bids are shown to all market participants Offers Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 10. Markets: Some numbers Prices Turnover Volume Index levels Bids Offers are the prices that would- be sellers are willing to accept for an asset they own; offers are Offers shown to all market participants Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 11. Markets: Some numbers Prices Turnover Volume Indexes measure the overall performance of individual assets Index levels on a market Bids Offers Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 12. Market prices ✤ Prices in markets are news: they contain information ✤ The sum of all market participants’ – people’s – expectations of future performance of that asset ✤ BUT, just because an asset has a low price in real terms doesn’t mean it’s “cheap” or a bargain – or vice versa ✤ Berkshire Hathaway’s current price: US$134,584 per share ✤ PCCW Ltd.’s current price: HK$3.16 (40 US cents) per share Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 13. Types of financial markets ✤ Commodities ✤ Stocks ✤ Foreign Exchange (Forex) ✤ Bonds ✤ Derivatives Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 14. Methods of trading ✤ “Open outcry” floor trading (NYSE) ✤ “Over the counter” electronic trading (Nasdaq) ✤ “Dark pool” private markets ✤ Bilateral trading (only two participants) Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 15. Photos: Bloomberg (left), AP (right) Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 16. Market participants ✤ Retail investors (ordinary people) ✤ Institutional investors ✤ Insurance companies, brokerages, hedge funds ✤ Corporations ✤ Governments Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 17. Types of participants Investment Information Leverage size Retail investors Small Public Small Institutional Public & Large Large investors Private Public & Governments Huge Unlimited Private Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 18. Why do they participate? ✤ To gain access to capital (funds) for new or existing ventures ✤ To put excess funds to use and earn money ✤ To hedge (insure) against risks ✤ To speculate (bet) Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 19. Price formation in markets ✤ People wanting to buy make a “bid” at a certain price for a certain amount of an asset ✤ Those wanting to sell announce an “offer” (or “ask”) price and amount ✤ People revise their bids or offers until they find a matching offer or bid ✤ All participants can see this information Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 20. Market data Screenshot of a Reuters 3000 terminal Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 21. Market data (free!) Screenshot of Google Finance page (finance.google.com) Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 22. Market comment sources ✤ “Sell side” ✤ “Buy side” ✤ Traders ✤ Mutual funds/ETFs ✤ Analysts ✤ Hedge funds ✤ Strategists ✤ Pension funds ...and don’t forget executives of public companies, lawyers, and ordinary investors Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 23. Some key market players Paulson & Co. Soros Fund Management Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 24. Problems with market sources ✤ “Talking their book” ✤ Unwilling to comment/too busy ✤ Spread rumors ✤ Don’t really know what’s going on ✤ Use jargon ✤ Demand anonymity Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 25. Market comment: basic structure ✤ Change ✤ Cause ✤ Expectations CCE CCF ✤ Comment ✤ Context ✤ Future Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 26. U.S. Stocks Advance, Erasing Earlier Loss, Following European Bank Rally By Rita Nazareth - Sep 13, 2011 U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a second day, as French banks eased concerns over their access to funding and investors watched for signs of progress in taming Change Europe’s debt crisis. All 10 main industries in the S&P 500 advanced as gains were led by industrial, raw material and Cause technology companies. The Dow Jones Transportation Average, a proxy for the U.S. economy, jumped 3.4 percent as airlines rose. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) added more than 1 percent, following a rally in European lenders. Aetna Inc. (AET) jumped 5.4 percent as the health insurer said profit will probably beat its forecast. Expectations? The S&P 500 increased 0.9 percent to 1,172.87 at 4 p.m. in New York, after falling as much as 0.4 percent. The gauge has risen 1.6 percent in two days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 44.73 points, or 0.4 percent, to 11,105.85 today. “Stocks are trading on the news of the day and the news was moderately favorable,” Michael Cuggino, who oversees $15 billion at Permanent Portfolio Funds in San Francisco, said in a telephone interview. Comment “While the issues of liquidity and health of the European banking system and the long-term viability of the euro are still out there, today is a day where people are looking beyond that. We’ve had a big correction. Levels really haven’t gotten back to where they were.” The S&P 500 fell as much as 18 percent from a three-year high on April 29 through Aug. 8 on growing concern over Europe’s debt crisis and an economic slowdown. Since then, the index has risen 4.8 percent. Context The S&P 500 may drop below a one-year low reached last month because too few stocks have declined rapidly enough, according to MF Global Inc. Future Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 27. Where to find... ✤ Change: market data ✤ Cause: world/local events, market sources ✤ Expectations: news database, market sources ✤ Comment: market sources ✤ Context: market data, news database, professional experience ✤ Future: market sources, professional experience Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 28. Finding “cause” ✤ Any big economic news? ✤ Any major local news? ✤ What’s happening in other markets? ✤ Look for sector-wide moves, then individual share moves ✤ Don’t always believe traders’ explanations Monday, 24 September, 12
  • 29. Finding “context” ✤ Biggest advance/decline since ✤ Who’s making money and when? who’s losing money? ✤ How many days in a row up/ ✤ Is the event cited as a cause down? typical or atypical? ✤ How much have prices/yields ✤ Is today’s event the beginning changed in that time? or end of a trend? ✤ Highest/lowest level since ✤ What’s at stake? when? ✤ What happens next? Source: The Bloomberg Way: A Guide for Reporters & Editors, 10th Edition Monday, 24 September, 12