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50
              %
              3 week tour




100%
1 week tour
CERTAINTY
E F F E C T
     or
A L L A I S
PA R A D O X
*   Maurice
     Allais
PEOPLE      ANIMAL


    SAFER
    PROSPECTS
50
              %
              3 week tour




100%
1 week tour
NOT
REWARDING




GOOD
O U T C O M E
Amos      DanielKahn
Tversky      eman
5%
              3 week tour




10 %
1 week tour
*   W h i c h
    factors affect
    your choice?
Gains
  &
Loses
$1 $5 X
million   million
100%



$1 $5 X
million   million
89%       10%       1%



$1 $5 X
million   million
11%                 89%



$1 $5 X
million   million
10%       90%



$1 $5 X
million   million

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Allais paradox

Notas del editor

  1. England, France, Italy
  2. 1 – 1 million2 – 5 million3 – empty potGame 1 – 1 million behind it 100% chanceGame 2 – 5 million 10%1 million behind it 89% chance1% no moneyGame 3 – 11% 1 million89% chance no moneyGame 4 -10% 5 millio90% no money
  3. 1 – 1 million2 – 5 million3 – empty potGame 1 – 1 million behind it 100% chanceGame 2 – 5 million 10%1 million behind it 89% chance1% no moneyGame 3 – 11% 1 million89% chance no moneyGame 4 -10% 5 millio90% no money
  4. 1 – 1 million2 – 5 million3 – empty potGame 1 – 1 million behind it 100% chanceGame 2 – 5 million 10%1 million behind it 89% chance1% no moneyGame 3 – 11% 1 million89% chance no moneyGame 4 -10% 5 millio90% no money
  5. 1 – 1 million2 – 5 million3 – empty potGame 1 – 1 million behind it 100% chanceGame 2 – 5 million 10%1 million behind it 89% chance1% no moneyGame 3 – 11% 1 million89% chance no moneyGame 4 -10% 5 millio90% no money
  6. 1 – 1 million2 – 5 million3 – empty potGame 1 – 1 million behind it 100% chanceGame 2 – 5 million 10%1 million behind it 89% chance1% no moneyGame 3 – 11% 1 million89% chance no moneyGame 4 -10% 5 millio90% no money