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Allais paradox
1.
2.
50
% 3 week tour 100% 1 week tour
3.
CERTAINTY E F F
E C T or A L L A I S PA R A D O X
4.
*
Maurice Allais
5.
PEOPLE
ANIMAL SAFER PROSPECTS
6.
50
% 3 week tour 100% 1 week tour
7.
NOT REWARDING GOOD O U T
C O M E
8.
Amos
DanielKahn Tversky eman
9.
5%
3 week tour 10 % 1 week tour
10.
*
W h i c h factors affect your choice?
11.
Gains & Loses
12.
13.
$1 $5 X million
million
14.
100% $1 $5 X million
million
15.
89%
10% 1% $1 $5 X million million
16.
11%
89% $1 $5 X million million
17.
10%
90% $1 $5 X million million
Notas del editor
England, France, Italy
1 – 1 million2 – 5 million3 – empty potGame 1 – 1 million behind it 100% chanceGame 2 – 5 million 10%1 million behind it 89% chance1% no moneyGame 3 – 11% 1 million89% chance no moneyGame 4 -10% 5 millio90% no money
1 – 1 million2 – 5 million3 – empty potGame 1 – 1 million behind it 100% chanceGame 2 – 5 million 10%1 million behind it 89% chance1% no moneyGame 3 – 11% 1 million89% chance no moneyGame 4 -10% 5 millio90% no money
1 – 1 million2 – 5 million3 – empty potGame 1 – 1 million behind it 100% chanceGame 2 – 5 million 10%1 million behind it 89% chance1% no moneyGame 3 – 11% 1 million89% chance no moneyGame 4 -10% 5 millio90% no money
1 – 1 million2 – 5 million3 – empty potGame 1 – 1 million behind it 100% chanceGame 2 – 5 million 10%1 million behind it 89% chance1% no moneyGame 3 – 11% 1 million89% chance no moneyGame 4 -10% 5 millio90% no money
1 – 1 million2 – 5 million3 – empty potGame 1 – 1 million behind it 100% chanceGame 2 – 5 million 10%1 million behind it 89% chance1% no moneyGame 3 – 11% 1 million89% chance no moneyGame 4 -10% 5 millio90% no money
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