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The Shape Of The Global Recovery: Risks and Opportunities Justin Patrie, Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Business Monitor International
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Global Strategic Outlook ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page Eurozone: The Global Weak Link ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],BMI Forecasts 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Real GDP Growth (%) 2.7 0.7 -3.9 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.9 GDP Per Capita (US$) 37,705 41,401 38,416 38,976 39,398 39,795 39,044 39,972 Fiscal Balance, % of GDP -0.6 -1.9 -6.5 -5.5 -4.8 -3.7 -3.0 -2.5 Current Account (% GDP) -0.1 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 -0.3 -0.0 0.1 0.1 Exports, US$bn 3,867 4,323 3,489 3,664 3,667 3,741 3,861 4,059 Inflation (average, %) 2.2 3.2 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 ECB Refinancing Rate (%) 4.00 2.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00
This can be your title page A Greek Fiscal Time-Bomb Explodes… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page It’s Not Just Greece… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page Monetary Union Under Severe Strain ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page Internal Devaluation At Work   ,[object Object],[object Object],Unemployment, %
This can be your title page Deflation Remains A Major Risk   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Inflation, % y-o-y
This can be your title page Capacity Overhang Reinforces Weak Outl ook ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Industrial capacity utilisation, %
EU Policy Risks Exacerbating The Problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page A Demand Crisis Looms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page Bank Risks Come Into Focus ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page The Recession In Focus: LIFO Does Not Apply Real GDP Growth, % Q-O-Q Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Eurozone 0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -1.9 -2.5 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 Germany 1.6 -0.6 -0.3 -2.4 -3.5 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.2 France 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -1.5 -1.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.1 Netherlands 1.0 0.0 -0.7 -1.2 -2.3 -1.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 Italy 0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -2.2 -2.7 -0.5 0.5 -0.3 0.4 Spain 0.4 0.0 -0.6 -1.1 -1.7 -1.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 Greece 0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.7 -1.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 Portugal 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -1.7 -1.9 0.6 0.5 -0.2 1.1 UK 0.7 -0.1 -0.9 -1.8 -2.6 -0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.3 Real GDP Growth, % Y-O-Y Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Eurozone 2.1 1.4 0.4 -1.9 -5 -4.9 -4.1 -2.2 0.6 Germany 2.9 2.0 0.8 -1.8 -6.7 -5.8 -4.8 -2.4 1.5 France 1.9 1.0 0.1 -1.7 -3.4 -2.8 -2.3 -0.3 1.2 Netherlands 4.1 3.3 1.7 -0.9 -4.1 -5.2 -4.0 -2.6 0.1 Italy 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -3.3 -6.2 -6.1 -4.8 -3.0 0.5 Spain 2.5 1.7 0.5 -1.2 -3.3 -4.2 -4.0 -3.1 -1.3 Greece 2.7 2.7 1.9 0.7 -1.0 -1.9 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 Portugal 0.9 0.7 0.4 -1.8 -3.8 -3.4 -2.5 -1.0 1.8 UK 2.4 1.7 0.2 -2.1 -5.3 -5.9 -5.3 -3.1 -0.2
This can be your title page Euro Finally Comes Under Pressure ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Exchange Rate, US$/EUR
This can be your title page US: A Structural Shift Is Underway  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],BMI Forecasts 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Real GDP Growth (%) 2.1 0.4 -2.4 2.8 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 GDP Per Capita (US$) 46,611 47,375 46,365 48,225 49,487 51,101 52,848 54,727 Private Consumption Growth (%) 2.6 -0.2 -0.6 2.0 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.8 Current Account (% GDP) -5.2 -4.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) -1.1 -3.2 -9.9 -8.9 -5.6 -3.7 -3.1 -3.0 Inflation (average, %) 2.9 3.8 -0.4 1.0 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.3 Fed Funds Rate (%) 4.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 2.50 4.00 4.25
This can be your title page Unprecedented Monetary Easing… Source: US Federal Reserve System ,[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page … Has Ended The Liquidity Crisis ,[object Object]
This can be your title page But You Can’t Force A Bank To Lend… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page … So The Labor Market Stays Weak ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
This can be your title page And Housing Prices Remain Down… ,[object Object]
This can be your title page …  And The Savings Rate Rises ,[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page To Thrive, Consumers Need: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Aside from lower prices, none of these is likely to be a positive factor in the coming years.
This can be your title page Consumer Demand Will Remain Weak ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],BMI Forecasts 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Real GDP Growth (%) 2.1 0.4 -2.4 2.8 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 GDP Per Capita (US$) 46,726 47,469 46,361 48,226 49,491 51,105 52,843 54,734 Private Consumption Growth (%) 2.6 -0.2 -0.6 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.8 Current Account (% GDP) -5.2 -4.9 -3.0 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7 -2.7 Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) -1.1 -3.2 -9.9 -10.0 -8.0 -5.8 -4.5 -4.0 Inflation (average, %) 2.9 3.8 -0.4 1.0 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.3 Fed Funds Rate (%) 4.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 2.50 4.00 4.25
This can be your title page Breakdown of US Growth Forecasts By Category Weaker Growth Ahead
This can be your title page China: Recession Risks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],BMI Forecasts 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f Real GDP Growth (%) 13.0 9.0 8.7 8.8 7.5 8.6 7.6 7.1 GDP Per Capita (US$) 2,533 3,214 3,499 3,916 4,284 4,768 5,300 5,895 Gross Domestic Product, US$bn 3,385 4,329 4,750 5,358 5,907 6,626 7,422 8,317 Current Account (% GDP) 11.0 8.5 5.9 3.7 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.2 Exports, US$bn 1,220 1,434 1,202 1,420 1,491 1,588 1,705 1,831 Inflation (average, %) 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.6 2.6 2.2 1.7 2.0 Exchange Rate, CNY/US$ (eop) 7.30 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.83 6.69 6.52 6.36
This can be your title page Emerging Markets Outlook: EM To Outperform, Favour Domestic Demand Plays
‘ The EM Story’ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page The “EM Story” ,[object Object]
This can be your title page Re-Appraising Emerging Markets Risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page BMI’s Emerging Markets Checklist ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],     
EM Strategies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
BMI Global Strategy: Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This can be your title page Thank You Business Monitor International [email_address]

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Global Strategy Powerpoint For Na Trip

  • 1. The Shape Of The Global Recovery: Risks and Opportunities Justin Patrie, Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Business Monitor International
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  • 14. This can be your title page The Recession In Focus: LIFO Does Not Apply Real GDP Growth, % Q-O-Q Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Eurozone 0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -1.9 -2.5 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 Germany 1.6 -0.6 -0.3 -2.4 -3.5 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.2 France 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -1.5 -1.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.1 Netherlands 1.0 0.0 -0.7 -1.2 -2.3 -1.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 Italy 0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -2.2 -2.7 -0.5 0.5 -0.3 0.4 Spain 0.4 0.0 -0.6 -1.1 -1.7 -1.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 Greece 0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.7 -1.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 Portugal 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -1.7 -1.9 0.6 0.5 -0.2 1.1 UK 0.7 -0.1 -0.9 -1.8 -2.6 -0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.3 Real GDP Growth, % Y-O-Y Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Eurozone 2.1 1.4 0.4 -1.9 -5 -4.9 -4.1 -2.2 0.6 Germany 2.9 2.0 0.8 -1.8 -6.7 -5.8 -4.8 -2.4 1.5 France 1.9 1.0 0.1 -1.7 -3.4 -2.8 -2.3 -0.3 1.2 Netherlands 4.1 3.3 1.7 -0.9 -4.1 -5.2 -4.0 -2.6 0.1 Italy 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -3.3 -6.2 -6.1 -4.8 -3.0 0.5 Spain 2.5 1.7 0.5 -1.2 -3.3 -4.2 -4.0 -3.1 -1.3 Greece 2.7 2.7 1.9 0.7 -1.0 -1.9 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 Portugal 0.9 0.7 0.4 -1.8 -3.8 -3.4 -2.5 -1.0 1.8 UK 2.4 1.7 0.2 -2.1 -5.3 -5.9 -5.3 -3.1 -0.2
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  • 25. This can be your title page Breakdown of US Growth Forecasts By Category Weaker Growth Ahead
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  • 27. This can be your title page Emerging Markets Outlook: EM To Outperform, Favour Domestic Demand Plays
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  • 34. This can be your title page Thank You Business Monitor International [email_address]