Sea level rise projections of USACE EC 1165-2-211 in greater context.

1. The Sea Level Projections of USACE EC 1165-2-211 in Context Kris Esterson & Sergey Gorlachev Everglades Project Joint Venture GEER 2010Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration The Greater Everglades: A Living Laboratory of Change July 14, 2010

4. Other projections in use in the region

5. Related climate change effects

7. Naples Tide Station Record Record exceeds 40yr minimum

9. High Rate Contribution (standard worldwide) Intermediate Rate Contribution (standard worldwide)

11. EC’s projections connected to orthometric and tidaldatums

12. latest developments in the scientific literature

13. Responding to Changes in Sea Level: Engineering Implications The source of the EC’s High and Intermediate Curves NRC, 1987

14. Sea Level Projections from the Literature From Rahmstorf (2010) 1.43m 0.18m USACE EC 1165-2-211 For Naples, FL

15. Other Projection Methodologies

16. SLR Projections & Planning Standards for South Florida 6 ft ? >3-5’ for ~2100 (Miami-Dade., 2009) 5 ft SFRPC 10% Worst Case 4 ft EC 1165-2-211 High ? NRC 2nd Biennial Review (2008) “not much more than 3 feet” 3 ft ? SFRPC 50% Moderate Case >1.5’ for ~2059 (Miami-Dade., 2009) EC 1165-2-211 Intermediate 2 ft 1.7’ by 2100 (CGM 16, 2004) 1.09’ (34cm) for 2100 (Yellow Book, 1999) SFRPC 90% Least Case 2.1” to 1’ for 2030 (Broward Co., 2009) 1 ft EC 1165-2-211 Historic 0.8’ by 2050 (CGM 16, 2004) 0.5’ SFWMD Sensitivity Test (Trimble, 1998) 0.48’ (15cm) for 2050 (Yellow Book, 1999) 0 ft 2050 2100 2030 2000

18. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios

19. Typical SLR Impact Assessment Drivers Stressors Impacts Sea Level Rise Impacts to Natural and Built Environments Increased Global Temperature Greenhouse Gas Emissions Hurricane Intensity Precipitation Change Ocean Acidification CO2

20. Exploring Causation Drivers Stressors Impacts Sea Level Rise Impacts to Natural and Built Environments Increased Global Temperature Greenhouse Gas Emissions Hurricane Intensity Precipitation Change Ocean Acidification CO2

21. What GHG emissions scenario would produce this SLR?

22. Actual Emissions vs IPCC SRES Scenarios EC “High” SLR Projection EC “Intermediate” EC “Historic” Source: Global Carbon Project Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009

23. Related Effects of Climate Change

24. What other climate change effects are related to this SLR scenario?

25. What Climate Effects are Associated with a “High” SLR Scenario? Drivers Stressors Impacts Sea Level Rise Impacts to Natural and Built Environments Increased Global Temperature Greenhouse Gas Emissions Hurricane Intensity Precipitation Change Ocean Acidification CO2 Accelerated SLR cannot occur in a vacuum

26. Utility and limitations in Decision Support

27. EC’s Projections & Decision Support Scenarios- End of academic process and start of decision support. Scenarios- Three scenarios with equal chance of occurrence. Not probabilistic- No “most likely” projection. Not predictions/forecasts- They bound rather than hide uncertainty. Multiple futures rather than single line forecasts. No information on “surprises”- Smooth projections don’t describe potential surprises such as leaps in the rate of rise

28. EC’s Projections & Decision Support Not probabilistic- Makes traditional risk assessment unclear. Calculation of traditional risk requires probabilities. Not predictions/forecasts- Makes cost-benefit analysis difficult as benefits may vary depending on SLR scenario. Complicates engineering design. No information on “surprises”- Management strategies (AM, SBP) based on SLR projections may not fully incorporate the range of potential outcomes.

29. Questions?