This document discusses trends in urbanization and slum growth globally. Some key points:
1) The number of slum dwellers worldwide has grown substantially in recent decades and is projected to reach 1.4 billion by 2020 if current trends continue.
2) Most urban growth over the next two decades will occur in small towns and cities in developing regions like sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.
3) There are different levels of shelter deprivation - from moderate (one deprivation) to severe (two) to extreme (three or more deprivations). Tracking changes in the types and severity of deprivations provides a better picture of how slum conditions are changing over time.
3. Global sample of 360 cities Worldwide
representative40 cities per UN region
Europe
Other Developed 40 cities
40 cities Eastern Asia
40 cities
Western Asia South Eastern Asia
North Africa 40 cities 40 cities
40 cities South Central Asia
40 cities
Latin
America & Sub-Saharan Africa
Caribbean 40 cities
40
cities
World
360 cities
4. URBANIZATION OF POVERTY
IN THE URBAN ERA
World
• 2005- Urban Population 47%
• 2030- Urban Population 60%
• Urban Growth Rate 2.24%
• Slum Growth Rate 2.22%
Western Asia
• 2005- Urban Population in Western Asia 55%
• Urban Growth Rate 2.9%
• Slum Growth Rate 2.7%
5. Three important trends characterize the
urbanization process in this new urban era.
1. Firstly, the biggest cities in the world will be found
mainly in the developing world.
2. Secondly, despite the emergence of metacities, the
majority of urban migrants will be moving to small
towns and cities of less than one million inhabitants
3. Thirdly, cities of the developing world will absorb
95% of urban growth in the next two decades, and by
2030, will be home to almost 4 billion people, or 80
per cent of the world’s urban population.
6. WHAT IS A SLUM?
• A slum households is a group of individuals living
under the same roof in an urban area who lack one or
more of the following five conditions:
1. Durable Housing.
2. Sufficient Living Area. (not more than three people
sharing the same room)
3. Access to Improved Water.
4. Access to Sanitation.
5. Secure Tenure.
7. To be cont….
• Four out of five of the slum definition indicators
measure physical expressions of slum conditions:
1. lack of water
2. lack of sanitation
3. overcrowded conditions
4. non-durable housing structures.
• These indicators focus attention on the circumstances
that surround slum life, depicting deficiencies and
casting poverty as an attribute of the environments in
which slum dwellers live.
8. To be cont……
• The fifth indicator security of tenure has to do with
legality, which is not as easy to measure or monitor,
as the tenure status of slum dwellers often depends on
de facto or de jure rights or lack of them. This
indicator has special relevance for measuring the
denial and violation of housing rights, as well as the
progressive fulfillment of these rights.
9. Fine tuning in methods needed for
assisting national policies
• Countries differ vis a vis two aspects:
• Magnitude of the problem: proportion of slum
dwellers
• Severity of problem, ie, the multitude of
deprivations in a country
10. Magnitude & severity of the slum
problem and policy implications (SSA)
Slum and shelter South Tanza Uganda Zambia
deprivation Africa nia
Percent of slum dwellers 30.9 93.0 84.9 74.0
(At least one deprivation)
Moderate shelter 23.1 52.8 53.8 47.8
deprivation (only one
deprivation)
Severe shelter 6.6 36.4 27.1 20.6
deprivation (two)
Extreme severe shelter 1.2 3.8 4.0 5.6
deprivation (three or all)
11. Magnitude & severity of the slum
problem and policy implications
(Asia)
Slum and shelter India Bangla Indone Nepal
deprivation desh sia
Percent of slum dwellers 49.4 56.9 31.5 52.8
(At least one deprivation)
Moderate shelter 34.3 33.6 26.7 22.7
deprivation (only one
deprivation)
Severe shelter 14.0 22.8 4.1 25.0
deprivation (two)
Extreme severe shelter 1.0 0.5 0.8 5.2
deprivation (three or all )
12. Magnitude & severity of the slum
problem and policy implications (LAC)
Slum and shelter Brazil Colom Guate Nicarag
deprivation bia mala ua
Percent of slum dwellers 43.1 16.3 75.7 61.2
(At least one deprivation)
Moderate shelter 31.3 13.6 54.0 29.2
deprivation (only one
deprivation)
severe shelter deprivation 10.2 2.1 9.9 20.7
(two)
Extreme severe shelter 1.6 0.7 11.8 10.7
deprivation (three or all)
13. State of the world slums
• The growth of slums in the last 15 years has been
unprecedented.
• In 1990, there were nearly 715 million slum dwellers in
the world.
• By 2000 when world leaders set the target of
improving the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers
• By 2020 the slum population had increased to 912
million.
• Today, there are approximately 998 million slum
dwellers in the world.
• UN-HABITAT estimates that, if current trends continue,
the slum population will reach 1.4 billion by 2020
14. To be cont….
• One out of every three city dwellers lives in
slum conditions.
• Some slums become less visible or more
integrated into the urban fabric as cities
develop and as the incomes of slum dwellers
improve.
• Others become permanent features of urban
landscapes. Both types of slums have carved
their way into modern-day cities
15. Difficulties due to slums
• Slum dwellers often live in difficult social and
economic conditions that manifest different
forms of deprivation material, physical, social
and political
16. Slums Trends
• Slum and urban growth rates are highest in sub-Saharan
Africa, 4.53 per cent
• 4.58 per cent per year, respectively nearly twice those of
Southern Asia, where slum and urban growth rates are 2.2 per
cent and 2.89 per cent per year, respectively.
• In Western Asia, annual slum and urban growth rates are quite
similar, at 2.71 per cent and 2.96 per cent respectively,
• while in Eastern Asia and Latin America, slum growth rates
are significantly lower than urban growth rates, although slum
• growth rates are relatively high in both regions: 2.28 per cent
• and 1.28 per cent per year, respectively.
17. SLUMS IN ASIAN COUNTRIES
45 43
40
35 36
30 31 Urban Households
28 Living in Slums (%)
25 24
21 Urban Households
20 19
with one shelter
15 deprivation (%)
10
5
0
Eastern Southen South- Western
Asia Asia Eastern Asia
Asia
18. To be cont….
• At the global level, 31.2 per cent of all urban dwellers lived in
slums in 2005, a proportion that has not changed significantly
since 1990.
• In 1990, there were nearly 715 million slum dwellers in the
world.
• By 2000 when world leaders set the target of improving the
lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers by 2020 the slum
population had increased to 912 million.
• In 2005, there were almost 1 billion (998 million) slum
dwellers in the world; if current trends continue, UN-
HABITAT estimates that the slum population will reach 1.4
billion by 2020.
19. Defining slums by household level
shelter deprivations
• Defining slums by household level shelter
deprivations, however, does not fully capture the
degree of deprivation experienced by a given
household or slum community, or the specific needs
of that community a dimension that is important for
policymakers.
20. To be cont…
• The current definition masks which specific
deprivations households experience, as well as the
severity of combined deprivations, and creates a
challenge for monitoring, as the proportion of slum
dwellers may remain the same in any given country,
while the type of deprivation experienced by
households may change over time. Furthermore, only
the elimination of all deprivations in a given
household now registers as an improvement in the
incidence of slums.
21. Different levels of shelter
deprivation
• A simple alternative approach is to group slum
households into categories that can be aggregated into
a. moderately deprived (one shelter deprivation)
b. severely deprived (two shelter deprivations)
c. extremely deprived (three or more shelter
deprivations).
• By studying the prevalence of slum households in
categories of severity, changes in household
deprivations can be tracked more accurately; a
reduction in one shelter deprivation for a severely
deprived household,
22. Conclusion
• Shelter deprivation for urban household in the major
states combines indicators to four dimensions of
shelter deprivation
• Stark household
• Deprivation with respect to certain basic amenities
• Deprivation in term of quality of dwelling structure
• Overcrowding within a dwelling structure as well as
overcrowding within a dwelling structure in limited
space
23. References
• UN-HABITAT Global Urban Observatory, 2008.
• Regional Conference on Housing Policy towards
Sustainable Housing Development -13-15 October,
2008, Abu Dhabi U.A.E.
• Gora Mboup, 2007,Chief Global Urban Observatory,
Monitoring Research Division, UN-HABITAT
MAKKAH.
• K, Sundaram and Suresh D. 1995. on measurement
shelter deprivation in India. India Economic Review,
2:131-165
• www.unhabitat .org state of the world’s cities
2006/2007.