The document discusses sustainability issues facing Hawaii and Kauai, including rising carbon dioxide levels, increasing resource use, and threats to ecosystems from climate change such as rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and sea level rise. It notes that sustainability requires addressing social, environmental and economic challenges together through approaches like adapting infrastructure and ecosystems to future conditions.

1. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
A SYNOPSIS OF
SUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH
IN HAWAI`I
AND ON
KAUA`I
• GLOBAL WARMING
• RESOURCE LIMITS
• SOCIAL INEQUITY
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

2. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
Measuring Global CO2 From Hawai`i
INCREASING
EXPONENTIALLY
Source: Mauna Loa Observatory: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

3. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
CO2 Growth Rates
What
Exponentiality
Looks
Like
Source: Mauna Loa Observatory: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

4. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
HAWAI`I EMISSIONS
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5. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
EMISSIONS TRENDS BY SECTOR
MMTCO2e
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

6. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
ISLAND EMISSIONS
17.8
16.1
13.2
6.0
TONS PER CAPITA
Source: HI Climate Change Task Force, Emissions Inventory, 2008
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

7. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
KIUC EMISSIONS TREND
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8. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
ISLAND
PERFORMANCE
MEASURES
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9. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
RESOURCE USE PER CAPITA ON KAUA`I
Still going up?
CARS
WATER
POWER
WASTE
Vehicles (per 10 people) Power (kWh per person)
Water (Mgd per 100 people) Waste (Klbs per person)
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

10. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
POPULATION FUTURES
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

11. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
LOOMING DEPENDENCY
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12. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
ISLANDER COMPOSITION
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13. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION NOW
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14. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
POPULATION REDISTRIBUTION?
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15. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
KAUA`I’S RECENT TRACK RECORD
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16. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
ECONOMIC OVERSHOOT?
SPENDING
WAGES
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17. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
KAUA`I’S SUPPLY “CHAIN”
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18. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
EQUITY IN HOUSING?
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19. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
HOUSING FOR WHOM?
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20. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
GROWTH FOR WHOM?
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21. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
FUTURE ENERGY SITES?
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22. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
ISLAND
ECOSYSTEMS
CONDITIONS
&
PROSPECTS
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

23. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
HOW’S THE WATER?
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

24. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
FRIENDLY TRADEWINDS?
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

25. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
Hawai`i Is Downwind Of America
NORTH PACIFIC
CYCLE
Source: NASA JPL, http://www-airs.jpl.nasa.gov/News/Features/Features20060403/
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

26. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
Hawai`i Is Also Downwind Of Asia
DIRECT FROM
WEST PACIFIC
Source: NASA JPL, http://www-airs.jpl.nasa.gov/News/Features/Features20060403/
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

27. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
FUTURE SHORELINE?
Source: TKI mapping, based on Chip Fletcher, http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/coasts/sealevel/ChipsTalk.html
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

28. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
HAWAI`I’S “COLD WALL”;
Stephen Miller on
A Hurricane Diverter Hawaii’s “Cold Wall”
1:30 – 3:15
Storm Tracks: East & Central Pacific, 1965 - 2006
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

29. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
KAUA`I RAINFALL by 2100:
34 – 79% decrease
Reduced Mountain
Area Producing Rain
Elevated
Cloud Base
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

30. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
RAINFALL OUTLOOK BY ISLAND
Stephen Miller, FWS ecologist at HCA conference ‘07, predicted that a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C would push the cloud base up to about 831 meters (2726’),
a 2.3 degree C increase would cause it to rise to 943 meters (3093’), and a 3.7 degree C increase would result in a cloud base at 1,169 meters (3835’).
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

31. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
Kauai’s Mesic Forest: Then & Now
NOW
THEN
Source: Hawaii Biodiversity & Mapping Program, http://hbmp.hawaii.edu/projects.htm
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

32. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
Alakai Native Bird Habitat:
85% loss with 2°C warming
FUTURE
CURREN
T
Source: Modeling the fate of endemic birds, Benning/LaPointe/Atkinson/Vitousek http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/99/22/14246.pdf
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

33. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
"Hawaii needs way s to
transition a wet forest to a
mesic forest in a spiral of
continually mov ing
conservation targets."
Stephen M iller , E cologist , USFWS
HCA Annual Conference
July 25, 2007, http://kauaian.net/blog/?p=880
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

34. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
THERE’S MORE …
Source: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRPotentialUSEffects.html
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

35. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
IMMINENT THREATS
TO KAUA`I ECOSYSTEMS
• H O T T E R (faster increase mauka * )
• D R I E R (more extreme rain events)
• L O W E R (faster sea level rise)
• R I S K I E R (m ore hurricanes)
• S I C K E R (multiple disease vectors)
• D I R T I E R (more polluted air)
Tom Giambelluca, Honolulu Advertiser, 25 Mar 08
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

36. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
SYMPTOMs
of unsustainability
• Emissions growth ( ipcc)
• Ecosystem loss ( MEA)
• Inequity ( Hawken, blessed unrest)
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

37. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
CONCLUSION:
Sustainability begets conservation,
Not the other w ay around
We cannot “save” habitats without
saving humans
MISSION:
Plan for kaua`I adaptation to
climate change
B uild resilience
as we migrate
our towns and ecosystems
ma uka
& trim our footprint
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

38. KAUA`I COUNTY Management Training Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i
TOWARD
Sustainability thinking:
Hawai`i
cannot RE solve
any ONE of our CHALLENGES
without RE solving
ALL of them together
The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net