1. Blue Ridge Association of Realtors
The U.S. and Washington Area
Economic Performance and Outlook
John McClain, Senior Fellow
Center for Regional Analysis
School of Public Policy
George Mason University
November 3, 2011

2. GDP Percent Change, 1930-2010
% (Real Dollars)
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010

3. Annual Change in Jobs – US
1940 - 2010
THOUSANDS
5000
3000
1000
-1000
-3000
-5000
-7000

4. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP
Past Five Recessions
16
14
% Change in GDP
12
10 1975-Q1
1982-Q3
8
1991-Q1
6 2001-Q4
4 2009-Q2
2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Quarters After Trough
Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

5. U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2014
%
Forecast > > > > > >
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
3
2011-1
2
3
4
2
4
2
3
4
2
3
4
2
3
4
2
3
4
2
3
4
2007-1
2008-1
2009-1
2010-1
2012-1
2013-1
2014-1

6. ISM Manufacturing and
Non-Manufacturing Indices
65
60
55
50
45 Mfg
40 N-Mfg
35
30

7. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US
THOUSANDS
3000 Sep =
+ 1.46 M
1000
-1000
-3000
-5000
-7000
Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA

8. US Job Change
Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted
000s
600
400
200 Sep
0 = 103
-200
-400
-600
-800
2011
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: BLS

9. Annual Change in Employed - U.S.
THOUSANDS
4000
Sep =
2000 787
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-8000
Source: BLS Household Survey, NSA

10. Initial Claims for Unemployment
4-Week Moving Average
700
650
600
550
500
450
400 405
350
300
250
200
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11. U.S. Unemployment Rate
%
11
10
Sep
9 = 9.1
8 GI FCST
7 11 – 9.1
12 – 9.2
6 13 – 8.9
5 14 – 8.1
15 – 7.3
4 16 – 6.8
Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

12. U.S. Housing Trends
(000s) New & Existing Home Sales (000s)
7500 800
7000
700
6500
Existing
600
6000 (left scale)
5500 500
5000
400
4500
New 300
4000
(Right Scale)
3500 200

13. 116.0
96.0
121.0
101.0
106.0
111.0
Nov-06
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
RECESSION >
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Nov 2006 – Sep 2011
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
L.I.
Nov-10
U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices
Feb-11
May-11
C.I.
Aug-11

14. 2011
Jul
Apr
Jan
2010
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
U.S. Leading Index
2009
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
2008
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
2007
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
2006 Jul
Apr
Jan
-6
-2
-4
14
12
10
0
8
6
4
2

15. Jul
2011
Apr
Jan
Oct
2010
Jul
Apr
U.S. Coincident Index
Jan
Oct
2009
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
2008
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
2007
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
2006 Jul
Apr
Jan
-6
-8
-2
-4
4
2
0

16. Consumer Prices
2001 - 2015
%
Forecast > > > > > >
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
2011
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: BLS, Global Insight

17. Interest Rates
2001 - 2015
Forecast > > > > > >
8
7
6
5
4
Fed
3 30-Yr
2
1
0

18. Oil Prices
$/barrel $ per barrel
140
Forecast > > > > > > > >
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: Global Insight

19. Consumer Confidence
160
140
120
100 100
Expectations
80
60
40 Present Situation
20
Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

20. Growth in Total
% Consumption Outlays
6
5 4.7 Forecast > > > > >
4 3.3 3.4
2.8 2.9
3 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.5
2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.0
2
1
0
-1 -0.6
-2
-1.9
-3
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

21. U.S. Job Change by Sector
Sept 2010 – Sept 2011
Ranked by Size in 2010 (000s) Total = 1,490
State & Local Govt -259
Educ & Health Svcs 450
Prof. & Bus. Svcs 561
Retail Trade 162
Leisure & Hosp. 120
Manufacturing 196
Financial -13
Construction 37
Wlse Trade 84
Other Services 64
Transp. & Util. 79
Federal Govt. -30
Information -41
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

22. U.S. Job Change by Sector
Aug 2011 – Sept 2011
Ranked by Size in 2010 (000s) Total = 103
State & Local Govt -33
Educ & Health Svcs 45
Prof. & Bus. Svcs 48
Retail Trade 14
Leisure & Hosp. -4
Manufacturing -13
Financial -8
Construction 26
Wlse Trade -6
Other Services -3
Transp. & Util. -1
Federal Govt. -1
Information 34
-100 -50 0 50 100
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

23. The Washington Economy

24. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index
Month-Over-Year Percent Change
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Aug
0.0%
-2.0%
12-Month
Moving Average
-4.0%
-6.0%

25. Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index
Month-Over-Year Percent Change
10.0%
5.0%
Aug
0.0%
-5.0%
12-Month
-10.0% Moving Average
-15.0%

26. Annual Job Change – MOTYC
Washington MSA
000s
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
2011
1999
2003
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2000
2001
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

27. Annual Job Change
Washington MSA
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
80
2009 2010 2011
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Jun
Jun
Jun
Feb
Dec
Feb
Dec
Feb
Aug
Aug
Aug
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

28. 15 Largest Job Markets
Job Change Sep 2010 – Sep 2011
(000s)
100
80
60
Washington +8,500
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

29. Job Change by Sector
Sept 2010 – Sept 2011
Washington MSA
(000s) Total = 8,500
Prof. & Bus. Svcs 12
Federal Govt. 0
Educ & Health Svcs 3
State & Local Govt 2
Retail Trade -3
Leisure & Hosp. 1
Construction -5
Other Services -4
Financial 5
Information -2
Manufacturing -4
Wlse Trade 0
Transp. & Util. 1
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

30. Annual Job Change
Northern Virginia
000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year
60
50 2009 2010 2011
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Jun
Jun
Jun
Feb
Dec
Feb
Dec
Feb
Aug
Aug
Aug
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

31. Job Change by Sector
Sept 2010 – Sept 2011
Northern Virginia
(000s) Total + 600
Prof. & Bus. Svcs 5
Federal Govt. -3
Educ & Health Svcs 0
State & Local Govt 2
Retail Trade 1
Leisure & Hosp. 0
Construction 1
Other Services -3
Financial 1
Information -2
Manufacturing 0
Wlse Trade 0
Transp. & Util. -1
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

32. Unemployment Rate
14
12
11.0 – DC
10
9.1 – U.S.
8
6.3 – SMD
6
6.1 – MSA
4.9 - NVA
4
2
0
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

33. 15 Largest Job Markets
Ranked by Unemployment Rate
% September 2011
14
12
10
US
8 9.1
6.1
6
4
2
0
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

34. Unemployment Rate – August Each Year
%
BRAR Counties
12
10
8 Clarke
Frederick
6 Warren
Shenandoah
4 VA
US
2
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

35. Housing Market Trends

36. Existing Home Sales
Washington MSA
Through September 2011
14000
12000
10000
12-Month Moving Average
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

37. Median House Sales Price
Washington MSA
500
450
$315,200
400 Sept 2011
350
300
250
200
150
100
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

38. Percent Change in
Inventories of Existing Homes
Month-Over-the-Year-Change
% 2000 – 2011, MSA
140
Jan-May, 2006 >100 %
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40 Sep =
- 29%
2000
2005
2010
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

39. Total Active Listings Per Sale
September Each Year
25.0
20.0
15.0 PW
10.0 FFX LDN
5.0
ARL
0.0
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

40. Total Active Listings Per Sale
September Each Year – Metro Area
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

41. Average Sales Price Percent Change
Washington MSA
All Housing Types
%
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
30
22
20
20 2009 2010 2011
1414
11
10 9 8 9
6 6 6 6 7
4 5 4 5
3 4 3 3 4
2 2 2 1 1 2
0 0 1
0
-1
-4
-7
-10 -10
-9
-14
-16
-20 -18
-20
-24
-26
-30
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

42. Average Sales Price Percent Change
Northern Virginia
All Housing Types
%
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
30
2223
20 2009 19 2010 2011
15 161716
1414
12 11
10 9 11 9 9 1010
10 5 5
6 6 6
7
4 4 4
1 2 3
0
0
-2 -1 0
-2
-10 -8
-12
-20 -19
-22
-25
-30 -28
-28
-40
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

43. Washington MSA
Building Permits
2000 – 2011, 3-Month Mvg Avg
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Regional Analysis

44. Blue Ridge Association of Realtors Region
$ Median Sales Price – Sept Each Year
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

45. Blue Ridge Association of Realtors Region
Sales – Sept Each Year
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

46. Blue Ridge Association of Realtors Region
Listings – Sept Each Year
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: RBIntel, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

47. Employment Change by
Sub-state Region (000s)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
D.C. 10.1 -2.2 9.5 3.3 5.7 8.6 9.3 9.8
Sub. MD -3.3 -25.1 -5.9 4.6 7.5 11.3 14.1 16.2
No. VA 6.1 -23.0 8.7 15.7 17.1 19.6 21.5 22.1
REGION 12.9 -50.3 11.3 23.6 30.3 39.5 44.9 48.1
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 8/26/11

48. OUTLOOK - Factors
• Debt Ceiling Resolution & Federal Budget
• Housing Market
– Foreclosures
– Fannie and Freddie
– Home Ownership
• Corporate Earnings
• Jobs

49. U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2014
%
Forecast > > > > > >
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
3
2011-1
2
3
4
2
4
2
3
4
2
3
4
2
3
4
2
3
4
2
3
4
2007-1
2008-1
2009-1
2010-1
2012-1
2013-1
2014-1
Source: IHS Global Insight

50. CRA.GMU.EDU