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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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NewBase 07 June 2015 - Issue No. 620 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE: TOTAL and EAD partnering for Dugong Conservation
WAM + NewBase
The Environment Agency - Abu Dhabi, EAD, Total Abu Al Bukhoosh and Total E&P Golfe Limited
have signed an agreement extending the sponsorship of EAD’s Dugong Conservation
Programme, which has been exclusively sponsored by TOTAL since 1999.
During the signing ceremony, Razan Khalifa Al Mubarak, Secretary-General of EAD, said, "We
are immensely proud to have the second largest population of marine mammal dugongs in the
world. The UAE has international responsibilities to conserve this vulnerable species and its
critical habitats."
She said, "Since 1999, thanks to the support of TOTAL, the Environment Agency - Abu Dhabi has
conducted detailed studies of the local dugong population. Overall, these studies have helped us
to better understand the dugongs. The first phase of these studies helped us obtain information
about the abundance, distribution and the conservation status of dugongs in the UAE."
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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"The second and third phase helped us understand more about the biological and ecological
status of dugongs and their habitats. Threats to the dugong population were identified by
investigating causes of dugong mortality as well as habitat degradation, fragmentation and loss.
Data has been collected including local movement patterns through satellite telemetry. In addition,
Marine Protected Areas were monitored and regional cooperation with other entities working in
dugong conservation enhanced," Al Mubarak added.
Hatem Nusibeh, Total UAE President, said, "Total is committed to create a better environment
wherever it operates. In the UAE, and since 1999, our partnership with EAD has helped the
Dugong conservation project grow.
With emphasis on educating the local community, we are confident that this combined effort will
prove successful to the continued growth of the Dugong population in the region. In addition, I
would like to thank the EAD for its awareness campaigns targeted towards youth and student
communities which are contributing to the long term protection plans for the region."
Amer Al Shaikh Ali, CEO, Total Abu Al Bukhoosh, said, "At Total Abu Al Bukhoosh, we are proud
to be associated with EAD in the conservation of Dugong. We have considered it as one of our
key social responsibility activities.
We will continue our joint efforts with Total and EAD to protect conserve and manage Dugong
habitats to maintain a healthy growth rate. Raising more awareness on Dugongs in the regions is
therefore a significant challenge for their protection and we should strive to achieve this."
Dr. Shaikha Salem Al Dhaheri, Executive Director of the Terrestrial and Marine Biodiversity
Sector, said, "If the dugong, its habitat and other important wildlife species living therein are to
survive and maintain their role as an important part of our environment, we need to ensure that we
not only actually implement the conservation measures adopted, but also continue to remain alert
by educating ourselves and enhancing our understanding on the requirements of the species
across the entire region, including Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia in particular and the Western
Indian Ocean region in general."
She added, "Throughout their range, which includes at least 48 countries from East Africa to the
Pacific Islands, dugongs are under pressure from a range of human activities. Dugongs are
vulnerable to human-related influences due to their dependence on seagrasses that are restricted
to coastal habitats, and which are often under increased pressure from human activities."
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Oman’s natural gas output grows 5.5 per cent
Oman Times + NewBase
Muscat: Oman's natural gas production and imports rose 5.5 per cent to 12,402 million cubic metres
(MNCM) for the first four months of this year, from 11,750 MNCM for the same period last year.
Of this, while non-associated gas showed a growth of 7.6 per cent to 10,216MNCM, associated gas
production declined 3.1 per cent to 2,185MNCM, according to statistics released by the National Centre for
Statistics and Information (NCSI).
Industrial projects
A sizeable portion of the natural gas in Oman is used by various mega industrial projects, which stood at
7,267MNCM for the first four months of 2015, against 6,946MNCM for the same period last year. Natural
gas is also used in oilfields either as fuel or for re-injection. For instance, in the first four months, as much
as 2,613 MNCM of natural gas was used in oil fields, against 2,406 MNCM units consumed for the same
period in 2014.
Other major consumers of natural gas in the country include power producers, small-scale industries and
liquefied natural gas plants. Natural gas used by power and desalination plants stood 3.9 per cent higher at
2,303 MNCM for the first four months of this year. The Oman Power and Water Procurement Company
(OPWP), estimates gas consumption in the electricity and water desalination sector to rise substantially in
the next five years, mainly due to higher production to support growing demand for power and water.
While the national demand for gas will rise sharply over the coming five years, the rate of increase is by no
means evenly distributed, with requirements set to spike in some regions. In fact, the Ministry of Oil and
Gas is responsible for supplying gas to various consumers and the obligations are set out in within the
agreements.
The Sultanate's natural gas production this year is projected at 120 million cubic metres per day, which is 15
million cubic metres higher than that of last year. Oman produced and imported 37,687 million cubic metres
of natural gas last year (equivalent to 105 million cubic metres per day).
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Saudi- Bahrain crude oil pipeline revamp on track
Gulf Daily News + NewBase
NEW crude oil pipelines between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia will be ready by the end of 2017 with
up to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) delivered to Bapco, it was revealed. Energy Minister Dr
Abdulhussain Mirza told parliament, in writing, that the new network, which will be operational in
the first quarter of 2018, will replace the existing land pipelines between Bapco and Aramco in
Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.
The GDN reported in
January that the new
30-inch diameter,
115km-long pipeline
will run onshore for
74km, with the
remaining 42km being
sub-sea. Dr Mirza said
an agreement with the
winning contractor will
be signed in August.
'The existing network
will be removed and
the route will be
cancelled, but we
have to test the new
network first to ensure
there are no technical faults,' he said. 'We expect to have the new network opened in the first
quarter of 2018, and dismantling of the existing pipelines is expected to begin in the second half of
2018, which will depend on contractors that will be selected.
'The new network will give us up to 350,000bpd day from Saudi Arabia that will reach up to
400,000 depending on flexibility, which is a significant increase from the current 230,000 daily
barrels transferred from Aramco.'
The minister was responding to a question by MP Khalifa Al Ghanim on project updates, which will
be discussed during parliament's weekly session on Tuesday. An Aramco official told the GDN
last year that the cost of the project is estimated at $350 million.
The front-end engineering and design of the pipeline was completed last year. It was done by
WorleyParsons of Australia. The pipeline is a key prerequisite for Bapco's planned Sitra refinery
expansion up to 500,000bpd total capacity, which is estimated to cost up to $6 billion.
Meanwhile, parliament is set to vote on a proposal on Tuesday to have four specialised dentistry
centres, one in each of Bahrain's four governorates. Parliament's services committee has
recommended the proposal, but said that equipment and furniture in dentistry sections at health
centres could be moved there instead of forcing the government to shoulder additional expenses.
The Health Ministry said in its meeting with the committee last week that under its strategy to
develop the dentistry sector it has opened 16 specialised clinics in health centres across Bahrain
to reduce waiting lists and provide better services.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Jordan: Aqaba Gas Port would generate surplus for export to Egypt
WAM + NewBase
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Ibrahim Saif has predicted that the Aqaba Gas Port
and the power generation sector would experience a "quantum leap" that will not only cover
Jordan’s needs for electricity, but might also result in a surplus that can be exported to Egypt,
which suffers a scarcity of gas.
Saif told Jordan News Agency,
Petra, that it was agreed,
during the Jordanian-Egyptian
Higher Committee joint
meetings held recently in
Amman, that the Egyptians
could benefit from a gas
surplus, which the Kingdom
now imports.
With regard to using gas to
generate electricity, Saif said:
"Absolutely. It's cheaper than
the use of heavy fuel oil and
diesel, especially in light of
global oil prices, as it is
environmentally cleaner and
more efficient. "
He also pointed to the
possibility of expanding the use
of imported natural gas for industry, hospitals, hotels and houses, after preparing the necessary
infrastructure. Aqaba Gas Port is set up to import liquefied natural gas and petroleum gas, which
is used in residential homes, he explained.
The minister added that the efficiency of the energy sector has recently increased and the cost of
renewable energy production has dropped. He noted that there is an urgent need to complete the
Green Corridor to expand the electricity transmission network's ability to absorb the productive
capacity of renewable energy.
The Green Corridor of Jordan is a sustainable agro forestry project that calls for the planting of
millions of native trees to create a permanent band of greenery from one end of the country to the other.
In this regard, Saif said that the ministry has secured funding for the project through a soft loan of
more than 100 million Euros and a tender will be issued before the end of this year to improve the
capacity of the network in the southern regions.
As for the oil pipeline with Iraq, the minister explained that Jordanian technical committees
participated in meetings in Baghdad to discuss this issue and returned to Amman a few days ago,
stressing that the Iraqis showed much flexibility on the subject of building the pipeline, which will
carry oil through Jordan to the port of Aqaba and from there abroad.
He noted that the pipeline is a mutual strategic interest of both countries and the project's
technical studies have been completed. Also, an alternative path for the project, along the border
with Saudi Arabia, are now being examined.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Reliance Power to set up $3bn plant in Bangladesh
Gulf Times + NewBase
Reliance Power said yesterday that it will set up a 2mn tonnes per annum floating natural gas
(LNG) import terminal and a 3,000 megawatt power plant in Bangladesh. A Memorandum of
Understanding (MoU) to this effect was signed by Reliance Power “during Prime Minister
Narendra Modi’s visit to Dhaka”, on his two-day official tour to the country, the company said in a
stock exchange filing here.
Reliance Power will use the
equipment it had contracted for its
Samalkot project in Andhra Pradesh
for setting up the power plant in
Bangladesh in three years from the
date of signing the power purchase
agreement (PPA).
The company was earlier
implementing a 2,400 MW gas-based
power project at Samalkot in Andhra
Pradesh, which has got stalled owing
to lack of supplies of allocated gas
from Reliance Industries’ KG-D6
block.
The equipment will be under appropriate warranties from General Electric (GE), USA and the
other global suppliers “Reliance is proposing to utilise these brand new equipment from Samalkot
project, including advanced class 9FA machines supplied by GE, for the proposed project at
Bangladesh, under appropriate warranties from GE and the other equipment suppliers. This will
help set up the project on a fast-track basis,” the statement said.
The equipment for the project has been procured and is ready with the company, it added.
Reliance Power will invest $3bn in an integrated facility comprising a 3,000 MW LNG-based
combined cycle power plant and an LNG terminal with a floating storage and regasification unit
(FSRU), making it the largest foreign investment in Bangladesh, it said.
The Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)
will provide land for the project, the statement added.
The FSRU terminal shall be set up at Maheshkhali
Island in Cox’s Bazar district of Bangladesh.
“The project can be set up quickly and can power the
country’s rising demand for electricity and will provide
clean and green power,” the statement said. The
project is in line with Bangladesh’s master plan of
2010 for meeting the country’s growing power
demands as well as to supplement domestic gas reserves in the country.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi shakes hands with Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at Shahjalal
International Airport in Dhaka. Reliance Power said yesterday that it will set up a 2mn tonnes per annum floating
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7
Baker Hughes: Rigs in May down from end to end
Baker Hughes Incorporated announced today that the international rig count for May 2015
was 1,158, down 44 from the 1,202 counted in April 2015, and down 192 from the 1,350
counted in May 2014.
The international
offshore rig count for May
2015was 284, down 16
from the 300 counted
in April 2015, and down
42 from the 326 counted
in May 2014.
The average U.S. rig
count for May 2015 was
889, down 87 from the
976 counted in April
2015, and down 970
from the 1,859 counted
in May 2014.
The average Canadian
rig count for May
2015 was 80, down 10
from the 90 counted in April 2015, and down 82 from the 162 counted in May 2014.
The worldwide rig count for May 2015 was 2,127, down 141 from the 2,268 counted
in April 2015, and down 1,244 from the 3,371 counted in May 2014.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Oil Price Drop Special Coverage
Oil prices rise after Opec keeps low output target
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices rose on Friday, breaking a two-day losing streak, after Opec ministers maintained their
existing oil production target for another six months at a level below current output.
Speaking on his way out of Opec’s biannual ministerial meeting in Vienna, Saudi Arabia's oil
minister Ali Al-Naimi said the 12-member group had agreed to maintain their production target at
30 million barrels per day (bpd).
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) had rolled over its target, he said.
Opec has been pumping over 31.2 million bpd in recent weeks, a Reuters survey has shown with
Saudi Arabia production near record levels.
Brent crude oil for July rose 80 cents to a high of $62.83 before easing back to around $62.40 by
1150 GMT. US crude futures were up 30 cents at $58.30. A trader at a large London house said
there was some relief that Opec had not raised its output target to reflect current production, a
possibility raised by some officials.
But the market remained oversupplied.
"The decision was pretty much in line with the consensus expectations," said Olivier Jakob at
Swiss consultancy Petromatrix in Zug. "It does not really change anything from the current market
situation."
Andy Brogan, Global Oil & Gas Transactions Advisory Services Leader at EY, said:
"If this morning has taught us anything it is that the journey back to a high oil price world will be a
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long one if it happens at all," he said. Oil prices tumbled 5 percent in the previous two sessions as
investors expected world oversupply to continue.
With oil prices having rebounded by more than a third after hitting a six-year low of $45 a barrel in
January, Opec officials in Vienna saw little reason to tinker with what they see as a successful
production strategy.
Lower oil prices have helped support growth in fuel consumption and put a damper on the US
shale boom.
Prices in last week vs. Opec output target
World oil prices slid last week as Opec decided against cutting its output target, while a boost for
the dollar. Oil Prices fell throughout the week on expectations that the Organisation of Petroleum
Exporting Countries would maintain its crude oil output ceiling, which turned out to be the case
following a meeting on Friday.
Opec stuck to its strategy of preserving market share faced with cheaper competition from the US
shale energy boom. Opec, which has traditionally defended price levels by cutting output if
needed, dramatically switched strategy last November when it opted to leave production
unchanged—despite a dramatic oil price collapse that slashed revenues for its members.
Member countries however declared this week they would be happier with higher prices than is
currently the case, to between $75 and $80 a barrel, to boost revenues and help their public
finances. Opec is also mindful however that high prices can weigh on economic growth.
“Yesterday’s Opec meeting did nothing to help oil prices push higher after Opec oil ministers held
production quotas at current levels of 30mn bpd,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at
traders CMC Markets UK.
By Friday on London’s Intercontinental Exchange, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in July slid to
$61.15 a barrel from $64.35 a week earlier. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) or light sweet crude for July dropped to $57.54 a barrel from $58.52 a week
earlier.
The OPEC Role
The last time Opec met, its decision to leave output unchanged cast doubt on the group’s
relevance.That was a little premature.
From the ministers’ market-moving comments to the array of oil executives gathered in Vienna to
court new ventures, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries showed no loss of stature
in the run-up to Friday’s meeting, at which it again decided to maintain its current output target.
While Opec has ceded the role of adjusting supply to balance the market, its strategy of keeping
up production is still driving prices lower now - and possibly higher later on.
“Reports of their death are greatly exaggerated,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets
strategy at BNP Paribas in London, said in an e-mail. “Opec is still relevant because by driving
down prices, and crowding out investment in higher-cost basins, they are sowing the seeds of the
future price rally.”
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
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Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 2.1% to $63.31 a barrel on Friday, compared with
$108.79 a year ago. It was down 3.4% last week. West Texas Intermediate crude, the US,
benchmark rose 1.9% to $59.13 on Friday.
Historically, Opec - led by its largest member, Saudi Arabia - would curtail output to lift prices,
playing the role of a swing producer. But the unprecedented surge of US shale oil output sparked
a battle for market share with, and within, the 12-nation group. Opec is trying to squeeze out
higher-cost producers.
“They’re still holding meetings, but if the meetings are not about controlling output, then they don’t
matter in the same sense that they’ve mattered for 40 years,” said George Perry, a senior fellow in
Washington at Brookings Institution. “Now they’re just trying to force someone else to do the
cutting.”
Opec lost the ability to control prices because of internal divisions and the rise of shale, Francisco
Blanch, Bank of America Corp’s New York-based head of global commodity research, said in an
e-mail.
“It’s too early to write the obituary for Opec,” Ed Morse, Citigroup Inc’s New York-based head of
global commodities research, said by phone. The Saudis “chose to collapse oil prices, but they did
it as a defensive measure.”
Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, said on June 1 that the strategy is working. There are signs
he’s right: The number of rigs drilling for oil in the US plunged 60% since October to the lowest in
almost five years; shale production started falling in May; and drillers’ stocks underperformed the
broader equity market.
Yet the gambit has been costly for Opec, too. Saudi Arabia burned through currency reserves at a
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record pace. And prices are too low for most member countries to break even, according to the
International Monetary Fund and ING Bank.
“The strategy failed to bring frackers to their knees and has been hugely costly to Opec,” Giovanni
Staunovo, a Zurich-based analyst at UBS AG, said by phone. “They still matter, but they are not
anymore the swing producer so they have a different role now than before.”
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Volatility likely to prevail for some time to come
SG+ Syd Rashid Hussain+NewBase
WHILE some clamoring to cut output, and others speculating that the ministers could even opt for
raising the production bar, the Opec ministers' last Friday decided to adopt - rather consensually -
a 'wait and see' strategy by rolling over its current target of 30 million barrels per day (bpd) - for at
least until December.
And despite conflicting interests, interestingly enough, the ministerial was short and pleasing. 'You
would be surprised to see how pleasing this meeting was,' a visibly relieved Saudi Oil Minister Ali
Al-Naimi asserted in the end while announcing the outcome of the much-awaited, and indeed
followed, Opec moot.
Ahead of the meeting, some, including Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc analysts, have been
speculating that the ministers might resort to even increase the output target, so as to
accommodate incremental production from Iraq, Libya and post-sanction Iran.
Opec however opted not to go this way and spring surprises - at this stage. Crude producers are
confronted with a number of issues.
With weakening oil markets, the pain within the producers' group is more than visible. Despite the
call on oil revenues growing in most member states, Opec crude revenues are set to fall by 46%
this year - to around $446 billion, the Energy Information Administration is estimating.
And then there is a growing speculation that the output of some key Opec members is also set to
go up - sooner rather than later. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh appeared confident in
Vienna that his country will pump an additional 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude within
months of nuclear sanctions being lifted by the West.
Zanganeh insisted in Vienna that Iran could bring around half a million barrels of oil per day to the
market within the next one or two months, upping that to around 1 million per day for exports over
the next 6 months (of the lifting of the sanctions).
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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A flood of Iranian crude into an already oversupplied market would certainly exert overwhelming
downward pressure on oil prices, most agree. Zanghaneh however, differed.
"I don't believe we will witness a new fall in the oil price in the market (when additional Iranian
crude enters the market), but the main issue for us, I should emphasize, is to achieve the
traditional market share of Iran in the oil market," he told CNBC in Vienna.
Not everyone is however is optimistic on that count. Bill Farren-Price of Petroleum Policy
Intelligence is of the view that the influx of Iranian oil could have a rather big impact on prices.
"I think that is going to be the big question whether Iran can actually deliver these barrels, whether
the deal is done by the end of June, but I do expect Iran will come back – it's got a lot of oil in
storage that will be released, they may make a bit of a splash when they start up again and that
could have a big impact on the market certainly," Farren-Price told CNBC.
Libya too hopes to double production to some 1 million bpd by September if key ports resume
working. However, many are still skeptic about its full return to normalcy as all past efforts have
failed to deliver a sustained recovery in shipments.
And Baghdad is not far behind either. Iraq is also endeavoring to increase its crude output.
Speaking about Iraq's oil output, Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi said: "We are less than our
normal production.
Last year exports should have been 3.4 million bpd, this year it should have been 3.3 million bpd,
we are still below this." And then he stressed: "I think we should be approaching 3.2 million bpd
within 2-3 months," adding Iraq was capable of producing at least 6 million barrels per day by
2020.
However, many within Opec are still of the view that the possibility of additional crude from within
its ranks is still considerably away.
“When (the additional) production comes, this matter will settle itself,” one OPEC delegate told
Reuters. That may not occur until 2016, according to analysts questioning how quickly Tehran will
win relief from sanctions and be allowed to sell more crude.
And thus the market reaction to Opec move was bearish. Oil in New York headed for the first
weekly decline as Opec moved to maintain its crude production target, leaving the market
oversupplied.
West Texas Intermediate oil for July delivery dropped 99 cents, or 1.7 per cent, to $57.01 a barrel
at 9:36 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It has decreased 5.5% this week, set to snap
a record 11-week rally. It was trading above $60 earlier this week.
Brent for July settlement decreased 95 cents, or 1.5%, to $61.08 a barrel on the London-based
ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract is down 6.9 per cent this week. The European
benchmark crude traded at a $4.06 premium to WTI, down from $5.26 at the end of last week.
The growing market glut is also fueling spare capacity debate. Despite being a capital intensive
industry, persistent market glut and the gloomy mid-term horizon, seems brewing reluctance in the
industry to invest in the sector in a big way.
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The scenario has slammed strong brakes on the much required global investment in the sector -
sowing the seeds of another supply squeeze and market upheaval some time in near future.
When Oil Minister Naimi was asked about the possible Saudi investment in the sector to boost the
kingdom's capacity and hence the global spare cushion, he had a quick answer: 'show me the
return.'
And then he quipped: "Is there demand for Saudi crude? Can you guarantee it? If I go and put a
dollar, will you guarantee that I would get 10 percent on that dollar?" He then added: "I don't want
16 percent, just 10 - can you guarantee that?"
In the meantime, Abu Dhabi's quest to take it capacity to a record 3.5 million bpd, has also been
delayed by at least another year, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (Adnoc) officials were quoted as
saying.
With a current capacity of about 3 million bpd, the company was targeting an increase of 500,000
by the end of 2017. The company will now probably add the final 100,000 barrels of daily
additional capacity in 2018, Qasem Al Kayoumi, the offshore exploration chief at Adnoc told a
conference in Abu Dhabi recently.
This lowering spare cushion and the application of breaks on a number of capacity expansions
projects do not bode well for the long-term stability of the markets, one could say with some sense
of conviction. Volatility seems to be in the driving seat - for some time to come!
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15
North Dakota refuses to flinch as Opec keeps output high
Reuters + NewBase
Oil executives in North Dakota, a Centre of the US shale revolution, say Opec made a
questionable bet when it decided on Friday to stick with a policy that aims to push higher cost
American producers out of the market by keeping output high.
Here, in the top US oil state after Texas, oil companies have slashed costs over the last seven
months to reach fighting weight — one that will allow them to profit despite the more-than 40 per
cent drop in prices over the past year and solidify the new American role as the world’s swing
supplier.
The policy Opec first adopted in November has brought stress, but not catastrophe. Oil companies
say they have recalibrated their operations to survive even if prices stay lower for a long while.
“High commodity prices hide a lot of inefficiencies in the system,” said Tommy Nusz, chief
executive of Oasis Petroleum Inc, which pumps about 58,000 barrels per day in North Dakota.
“Most companies will come out of this cycle stronger.” Indeed, while the number of North Dakota
drilling rigs has plunged sharply so far this year — the count sat at 81 on Friday, down from 146 in
early February — the state’s oil production has proven resilient.
Output fell slightly in January and February, but jumped in March, highlighting the potential of
shale wells to ramp up or down quickly, regardless of the group’s actions. “Opec still is our main
competition,” Lynn Helms, head of North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources and the state
oil industry’s main regulator and promoter, said in an interview.
“But what you’re seeing now is the Bakken becoming the swing producer, something that has
happened relatively quickly because of efficiencies in drilling and completion technology.” Saudi
Arabia, Venezuela and the 10 other Opec members have, for their part, seen their strategy of the
past half year as successful. Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Naimi and others described Friday’s
meeting as “amicable,” and showed little sign of wanting to change an approach that has
dampened the US.
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16
shale boom.
WPX Energy Inc, which pumps about 37,000 barrels per day from North Dakota, said oil prices
around $40 per barrel are too low, though $100 prices could be too high and that OPEC’s moves,
among other market factors, will help set a “happy medium.” “This is the new reality, and it’s
driven positive change at WPX and made us more efficient,” said WPX Energy spokesman Kelly
Swan.
Whiting Petroleum Corp, the state’s largest oil producer, and EOG Resources Inc declined to
comment on OPEC’s decision.
Continental Resources Inc and Hess Corp did not respond to requests for comment.
Helms, the state oil regulator, said North Dakota producers are reacting to a “new normal” reality
where they are the new global oil swing producers, constantly needing to react to the “Bakken
call.” With about 1.2 million barrels of oil produced each day in the state, North Dakota output may
actually be exceeding what the world needs, Helm said, pegging the demand from the state at
roughly 1.1 million barrels per day.
“I think that’s reflected in the price weakness and the amount of oil that’s in storage,” Helms said.
North Dakota and other US oil-producing regions likely won’t see production slip moving forward,
but rather see the rate of growth ebb, said Ann-Louise Hittle, lead oil market analyst at Wood
Mackenzie.
“From OPEC’s perspective, the strategy is working,” Hittle said. “But they can also act as a price-
supportive player, which in the long run can only help North Dakota.”
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 07 June 2015 K. Al Awadi
Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18

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NewBase 620 special 07 June 2015

  • 1. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 07 June 2015 - Issue No. 620 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: TOTAL and EAD partnering for Dugong Conservation WAM + NewBase The Environment Agency - Abu Dhabi, EAD, Total Abu Al Bukhoosh and Total E&P Golfe Limited have signed an agreement extending the sponsorship of EAD’s Dugong Conservation Programme, which has been exclusively sponsored by TOTAL since 1999. During the signing ceremony, Razan Khalifa Al Mubarak, Secretary-General of EAD, said, "We are immensely proud to have the second largest population of marine mammal dugongs in the world. The UAE has international responsibilities to conserve this vulnerable species and its critical habitats." She said, "Since 1999, thanks to the support of TOTAL, the Environment Agency - Abu Dhabi has conducted detailed studies of the local dugong population. Overall, these studies have helped us to better understand the dugongs. The first phase of these studies helped us obtain information about the abundance, distribution and the conservation status of dugongs in the UAE."
  • 2. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 "The second and third phase helped us understand more about the biological and ecological status of dugongs and their habitats. Threats to the dugong population were identified by investigating causes of dugong mortality as well as habitat degradation, fragmentation and loss. Data has been collected including local movement patterns through satellite telemetry. In addition, Marine Protected Areas were monitored and regional cooperation with other entities working in dugong conservation enhanced," Al Mubarak added. Hatem Nusibeh, Total UAE President, said, "Total is committed to create a better environment wherever it operates. In the UAE, and since 1999, our partnership with EAD has helped the Dugong conservation project grow. With emphasis on educating the local community, we are confident that this combined effort will prove successful to the continued growth of the Dugong population in the region. In addition, I would like to thank the EAD for its awareness campaigns targeted towards youth and student communities which are contributing to the long term protection plans for the region." Amer Al Shaikh Ali, CEO, Total Abu Al Bukhoosh, said, "At Total Abu Al Bukhoosh, we are proud to be associated with EAD in the conservation of Dugong. We have considered it as one of our key social responsibility activities. We will continue our joint efforts with Total and EAD to protect conserve and manage Dugong habitats to maintain a healthy growth rate. Raising more awareness on Dugongs in the regions is therefore a significant challenge for their protection and we should strive to achieve this." Dr. Shaikha Salem Al Dhaheri, Executive Director of the Terrestrial and Marine Biodiversity Sector, said, "If the dugong, its habitat and other important wildlife species living therein are to survive and maintain their role as an important part of our environment, we need to ensure that we not only actually implement the conservation measures adopted, but also continue to remain alert by educating ourselves and enhancing our understanding on the requirements of the species across the entire region, including Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia in particular and the Western Indian Ocean region in general." She added, "Throughout their range, which includes at least 48 countries from East Africa to the Pacific Islands, dugongs are under pressure from a range of human activities. Dugongs are vulnerable to human-related influences due to their dependence on seagrasses that are restricted to coastal habitats, and which are often under increased pressure from human activities."
  • 3. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 Oman’s natural gas output grows 5.5 per cent Oman Times + NewBase Muscat: Oman's natural gas production and imports rose 5.5 per cent to 12,402 million cubic metres (MNCM) for the first four months of this year, from 11,750 MNCM for the same period last year. Of this, while non-associated gas showed a growth of 7.6 per cent to 10,216MNCM, associated gas production declined 3.1 per cent to 2,185MNCM, according to statistics released by the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI). Industrial projects A sizeable portion of the natural gas in Oman is used by various mega industrial projects, which stood at 7,267MNCM for the first four months of 2015, against 6,946MNCM for the same period last year. Natural gas is also used in oilfields either as fuel or for re-injection. For instance, in the first four months, as much as 2,613 MNCM of natural gas was used in oil fields, against 2,406 MNCM units consumed for the same period in 2014. Other major consumers of natural gas in the country include power producers, small-scale industries and liquefied natural gas plants. Natural gas used by power and desalination plants stood 3.9 per cent higher at 2,303 MNCM for the first four months of this year. The Oman Power and Water Procurement Company (OPWP), estimates gas consumption in the electricity and water desalination sector to rise substantially in the next five years, mainly due to higher production to support growing demand for power and water. While the national demand for gas will rise sharply over the coming five years, the rate of increase is by no means evenly distributed, with requirements set to spike in some regions. In fact, the Ministry of Oil and Gas is responsible for supplying gas to various consumers and the obligations are set out in within the agreements. The Sultanate's natural gas production this year is projected at 120 million cubic metres per day, which is 15 million cubic metres higher than that of last year. Oman produced and imported 37,687 million cubic metres of natural gas last year (equivalent to 105 million cubic metres per day).
  • 4. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Saudi- Bahrain crude oil pipeline revamp on track Gulf Daily News + NewBase NEW crude oil pipelines between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia will be ready by the end of 2017 with up to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) delivered to Bapco, it was revealed. Energy Minister Dr Abdulhussain Mirza told parliament, in writing, that the new network, which will be operational in the first quarter of 2018, will replace the existing land pipelines between Bapco and Aramco in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. The GDN reported in January that the new 30-inch diameter, 115km-long pipeline will run onshore for 74km, with the remaining 42km being sub-sea. Dr Mirza said an agreement with the winning contractor will be signed in August. 'The existing network will be removed and the route will be cancelled, but we have to test the new network first to ensure there are no technical faults,' he said. 'We expect to have the new network opened in the first quarter of 2018, and dismantling of the existing pipelines is expected to begin in the second half of 2018, which will depend on contractors that will be selected. 'The new network will give us up to 350,000bpd day from Saudi Arabia that will reach up to 400,000 depending on flexibility, which is a significant increase from the current 230,000 daily barrels transferred from Aramco.' The minister was responding to a question by MP Khalifa Al Ghanim on project updates, which will be discussed during parliament's weekly session on Tuesday. An Aramco official told the GDN last year that the cost of the project is estimated at $350 million. The front-end engineering and design of the pipeline was completed last year. It was done by WorleyParsons of Australia. The pipeline is a key prerequisite for Bapco's planned Sitra refinery expansion up to 500,000bpd total capacity, which is estimated to cost up to $6 billion. Meanwhile, parliament is set to vote on a proposal on Tuesday to have four specialised dentistry centres, one in each of Bahrain's four governorates. Parliament's services committee has recommended the proposal, but said that equipment and furniture in dentistry sections at health centres could be moved there instead of forcing the government to shoulder additional expenses. The Health Ministry said in its meeting with the committee last week that under its strategy to develop the dentistry sector it has opened 16 specialised clinics in health centres across Bahrain to reduce waiting lists and provide better services.
  • 5. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Jordan: Aqaba Gas Port would generate surplus for export to Egypt WAM + NewBase Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Ibrahim Saif has predicted that the Aqaba Gas Port and the power generation sector would experience a "quantum leap" that will not only cover Jordan’s needs for electricity, but might also result in a surplus that can be exported to Egypt, which suffers a scarcity of gas. Saif told Jordan News Agency, Petra, that it was agreed, during the Jordanian-Egyptian Higher Committee joint meetings held recently in Amman, that the Egyptians could benefit from a gas surplus, which the Kingdom now imports. With regard to using gas to generate electricity, Saif said: "Absolutely. It's cheaper than the use of heavy fuel oil and diesel, especially in light of global oil prices, as it is environmentally cleaner and more efficient. " He also pointed to the possibility of expanding the use of imported natural gas for industry, hospitals, hotels and houses, after preparing the necessary infrastructure. Aqaba Gas Port is set up to import liquefied natural gas and petroleum gas, which is used in residential homes, he explained. The minister added that the efficiency of the energy sector has recently increased and the cost of renewable energy production has dropped. He noted that there is an urgent need to complete the Green Corridor to expand the electricity transmission network's ability to absorb the productive capacity of renewable energy. The Green Corridor of Jordan is a sustainable agro forestry project that calls for the planting of millions of native trees to create a permanent band of greenery from one end of the country to the other. In this regard, Saif said that the ministry has secured funding for the project through a soft loan of more than 100 million Euros and a tender will be issued before the end of this year to improve the capacity of the network in the southern regions. As for the oil pipeline with Iraq, the minister explained that Jordanian technical committees participated in meetings in Baghdad to discuss this issue and returned to Amman a few days ago, stressing that the Iraqis showed much flexibility on the subject of building the pipeline, which will carry oil through Jordan to the port of Aqaba and from there abroad. He noted that the pipeline is a mutual strategic interest of both countries and the project's technical studies have been completed. Also, an alternative path for the project, along the border with Saudi Arabia, are now being examined.
  • 6. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Reliance Power to set up $3bn plant in Bangladesh Gulf Times + NewBase Reliance Power said yesterday that it will set up a 2mn tonnes per annum floating natural gas (LNG) import terminal and a 3,000 megawatt power plant in Bangladesh. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to this effect was signed by Reliance Power “during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Dhaka”, on his two-day official tour to the country, the company said in a stock exchange filing here. Reliance Power will use the equipment it had contracted for its Samalkot project in Andhra Pradesh for setting up the power plant in Bangladesh in three years from the date of signing the power purchase agreement (PPA). The company was earlier implementing a 2,400 MW gas-based power project at Samalkot in Andhra Pradesh, which has got stalled owing to lack of supplies of allocated gas from Reliance Industries’ KG-D6 block. The equipment will be under appropriate warranties from General Electric (GE), USA and the other global suppliers “Reliance is proposing to utilise these brand new equipment from Samalkot project, including advanced class 9FA machines supplied by GE, for the proposed project at Bangladesh, under appropriate warranties from GE and the other equipment suppliers. This will help set up the project on a fast-track basis,” the statement said. The equipment for the project has been procured and is ready with the company, it added. Reliance Power will invest $3bn in an integrated facility comprising a 3,000 MW LNG-based combined cycle power plant and an LNG terminal with a floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU), making it the largest foreign investment in Bangladesh, it said. The Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) will provide land for the project, the statement added. The FSRU terminal shall be set up at Maheshkhali Island in Cox’s Bazar district of Bangladesh. “The project can be set up quickly and can power the country’s rising demand for electricity and will provide clean and green power,” the statement said. The project is in line with Bangladesh’s master plan of 2010 for meeting the country’s growing power demands as well as to supplement domestic gas reserves in the country. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi shakes hands with Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka. Reliance Power said yesterday that it will set up a 2mn tonnes per annum floating
  • 7. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 Baker Hughes: Rigs in May down from end to end Baker Hughes Incorporated announced today that the international rig count for May 2015 was 1,158, down 44 from the 1,202 counted in April 2015, and down 192 from the 1,350 counted in May 2014. The international offshore rig count for May 2015was 284, down 16 from the 300 counted in April 2015, and down 42 from the 326 counted in May 2014. The average U.S. rig count for May 2015 was 889, down 87 from the 976 counted in April 2015, and down 970 from the 1,859 counted in May 2014. The average Canadian rig count for May 2015 was 80, down 10 from the 90 counted in April 2015, and down 82 from the 162 counted in May 2014. The worldwide rig count for May 2015 was 2,127, down 141 from the 2,268 counted in April 2015, and down 1,244 from the 3,371 counted in May 2014.
  • 8. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Oil Price Drop Special Coverage Oil prices rise after Opec keeps low output target Reuters + NewBase Oil prices rose on Friday, breaking a two-day losing streak, after Opec ministers maintained their existing oil production target for another six months at a level below current output. Speaking on his way out of Opec’s biannual ministerial meeting in Vienna, Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali Al-Naimi said the 12-member group had agreed to maintain their production target at 30 million barrels per day (bpd). The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) had rolled over its target, he said. Opec has been pumping over 31.2 million bpd in recent weeks, a Reuters survey has shown with Saudi Arabia production near record levels. Brent crude oil for July rose 80 cents to a high of $62.83 before easing back to around $62.40 by 1150 GMT. US crude futures were up 30 cents at $58.30. A trader at a large London house said there was some relief that Opec had not raised its output target to reflect current production, a possibility raised by some officials. But the market remained oversupplied. "The decision was pretty much in line with the consensus expectations," said Olivier Jakob at Swiss consultancy Petromatrix in Zug. "It does not really change anything from the current market situation." Andy Brogan, Global Oil & Gas Transactions Advisory Services Leader at EY, said: "If this morning has taught us anything it is that the journey back to a high oil price world will be a
  • 9. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 long one if it happens at all," he said. Oil prices tumbled 5 percent in the previous two sessions as investors expected world oversupply to continue. With oil prices having rebounded by more than a third after hitting a six-year low of $45 a barrel in January, Opec officials in Vienna saw little reason to tinker with what they see as a successful production strategy. Lower oil prices have helped support growth in fuel consumption and put a damper on the US shale boom. Prices in last week vs. Opec output target World oil prices slid last week as Opec decided against cutting its output target, while a boost for the dollar. Oil Prices fell throughout the week on expectations that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries would maintain its crude oil output ceiling, which turned out to be the case following a meeting on Friday. Opec stuck to its strategy of preserving market share faced with cheaper competition from the US shale energy boom. Opec, which has traditionally defended price levels by cutting output if needed, dramatically switched strategy last November when it opted to leave production unchanged—despite a dramatic oil price collapse that slashed revenues for its members. Member countries however declared this week they would be happier with higher prices than is currently the case, to between $75 and $80 a barrel, to boost revenues and help their public finances. Opec is also mindful however that high prices can weigh on economic growth. “Yesterday’s Opec meeting did nothing to help oil prices push higher after Opec oil ministers held production quotas at current levels of 30mn bpd,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at traders CMC Markets UK. By Friday on London’s Intercontinental Exchange, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in July slid to $61.15 a barrel from $64.35 a week earlier. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or light sweet crude for July dropped to $57.54 a barrel from $58.52 a week earlier. The OPEC Role The last time Opec met, its decision to leave output unchanged cast doubt on the group’s relevance.That was a little premature. From the ministers’ market-moving comments to the array of oil executives gathered in Vienna to court new ventures, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries showed no loss of stature in the run-up to Friday’s meeting, at which it again decided to maintain its current output target. While Opec has ceded the role of adjusting supply to balance the market, its strategy of keeping up production is still driving prices lower now - and possibly higher later on. “Reports of their death are greatly exaggerated,” Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas in London, said in an e-mail. “Opec is still relevant because by driving down prices, and crowding out investment in higher-cost basins, they are sowing the seeds of the future price rally.”
  • 10. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 2.1% to $63.31 a barrel on Friday, compared with $108.79 a year ago. It was down 3.4% last week. West Texas Intermediate crude, the US, benchmark rose 1.9% to $59.13 on Friday. Historically, Opec - led by its largest member, Saudi Arabia - would curtail output to lift prices, playing the role of a swing producer. But the unprecedented surge of US shale oil output sparked a battle for market share with, and within, the 12-nation group. Opec is trying to squeeze out higher-cost producers. “They’re still holding meetings, but if the meetings are not about controlling output, then they don’t matter in the same sense that they’ve mattered for 40 years,” said George Perry, a senior fellow in Washington at Brookings Institution. “Now they’re just trying to force someone else to do the cutting.” Opec lost the ability to control prices because of internal divisions and the rise of shale, Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Corp’s New York-based head of global commodity research, said in an e-mail. “It’s too early to write the obituary for Opec,” Ed Morse, Citigroup Inc’s New York-based head of global commodities research, said by phone. The Saudis “chose to collapse oil prices, but they did it as a defensive measure.” Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, said on June 1 that the strategy is working. There are signs he’s right: The number of rigs drilling for oil in the US plunged 60% since October to the lowest in almost five years; shale production started falling in May; and drillers’ stocks underperformed the broader equity market. Yet the gambit has been costly for Opec, too. Saudi Arabia burned through currency reserves at a
  • 11. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 record pace. And prices are too low for most member countries to break even, according to the International Monetary Fund and ING Bank. “The strategy failed to bring frackers to their knees and has been hugely costly to Opec,” Giovanni Staunovo, a Zurich-based analyst at UBS AG, said by phone. “They still matter, but they are not anymore the swing producer so they have a different role now than before.”
  • 12. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 Volatility likely to prevail for some time to come SG+ Syd Rashid Hussain+NewBase WHILE some clamoring to cut output, and others speculating that the ministers could even opt for raising the production bar, the Opec ministers' last Friday decided to adopt - rather consensually - a 'wait and see' strategy by rolling over its current target of 30 million barrels per day (bpd) - for at least until December. And despite conflicting interests, interestingly enough, the ministerial was short and pleasing. 'You would be surprised to see how pleasing this meeting was,' a visibly relieved Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi asserted in the end while announcing the outcome of the much-awaited, and indeed followed, Opec moot. Ahead of the meeting, some, including Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc analysts, have been speculating that the ministers might resort to even increase the output target, so as to accommodate incremental production from Iraq, Libya and post-sanction Iran. Opec however opted not to go this way and spring surprises - at this stage. Crude producers are confronted with a number of issues. With weakening oil markets, the pain within the producers' group is more than visible. Despite the call on oil revenues growing in most member states, Opec crude revenues are set to fall by 46% this year - to around $446 billion, the Energy Information Administration is estimating. And then there is a growing speculation that the output of some key Opec members is also set to go up - sooner rather than later. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh appeared confident in Vienna that his country will pump an additional 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude within months of nuclear sanctions being lifted by the West. Zanganeh insisted in Vienna that Iran could bring around half a million barrels of oil per day to the market within the next one or two months, upping that to around 1 million per day for exports over the next 6 months (of the lifting of the sanctions).
  • 13. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 A flood of Iranian crude into an already oversupplied market would certainly exert overwhelming downward pressure on oil prices, most agree. Zanghaneh however, differed. "I don't believe we will witness a new fall in the oil price in the market (when additional Iranian crude enters the market), but the main issue for us, I should emphasize, is to achieve the traditional market share of Iran in the oil market," he told CNBC in Vienna. Not everyone is however is optimistic on that count. Bill Farren-Price of Petroleum Policy Intelligence is of the view that the influx of Iranian oil could have a rather big impact on prices. "I think that is going to be the big question whether Iran can actually deliver these barrels, whether the deal is done by the end of June, but I do expect Iran will come back – it's got a lot of oil in storage that will be released, they may make a bit of a splash when they start up again and that could have a big impact on the market certainly," Farren-Price told CNBC. Libya too hopes to double production to some 1 million bpd by September if key ports resume working. However, many are still skeptic about its full return to normalcy as all past efforts have failed to deliver a sustained recovery in shipments. And Baghdad is not far behind either. Iraq is also endeavoring to increase its crude output. Speaking about Iraq's oil output, Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi said: "We are less than our normal production. Last year exports should have been 3.4 million bpd, this year it should have been 3.3 million bpd, we are still below this." And then he stressed: "I think we should be approaching 3.2 million bpd within 2-3 months," adding Iraq was capable of producing at least 6 million barrels per day by 2020. However, many within Opec are still of the view that the possibility of additional crude from within its ranks is still considerably away. “When (the additional) production comes, this matter will settle itself,” one OPEC delegate told Reuters. That may not occur until 2016, according to analysts questioning how quickly Tehran will win relief from sanctions and be allowed to sell more crude. And thus the market reaction to Opec move was bearish. Oil in New York headed for the first weekly decline as Opec moved to maintain its crude production target, leaving the market oversupplied. West Texas Intermediate oil for July delivery dropped 99 cents, or 1.7 per cent, to $57.01 a barrel at 9:36 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It has decreased 5.5% this week, set to snap a record 11-week rally. It was trading above $60 earlier this week. Brent for July settlement decreased 95 cents, or 1.5%, to $61.08 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract is down 6.9 per cent this week. The European benchmark crude traded at a $4.06 premium to WTI, down from $5.26 at the end of last week. The growing market glut is also fueling spare capacity debate. Despite being a capital intensive industry, persistent market glut and the gloomy mid-term horizon, seems brewing reluctance in the industry to invest in the sector in a big way.
  • 14. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 The scenario has slammed strong brakes on the much required global investment in the sector - sowing the seeds of another supply squeeze and market upheaval some time in near future. When Oil Minister Naimi was asked about the possible Saudi investment in the sector to boost the kingdom's capacity and hence the global spare cushion, he had a quick answer: 'show me the return.' And then he quipped: "Is there demand for Saudi crude? Can you guarantee it? If I go and put a dollar, will you guarantee that I would get 10 percent on that dollar?" He then added: "I don't want 16 percent, just 10 - can you guarantee that?" In the meantime, Abu Dhabi's quest to take it capacity to a record 3.5 million bpd, has also been delayed by at least another year, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (Adnoc) officials were quoted as saying. With a current capacity of about 3 million bpd, the company was targeting an increase of 500,000 by the end of 2017. The company will now probably add the final 100,000 barrels of daily additional capacity in 2018, Qasem Al Kayoumi, the offshore exploration chief at Adnoc told a conference in Abu Dhabi recently. This lowering spare cushion and the application of breaks on a number of capacity expansions projects do not bode well for the long-term stability of the markets, one could say with some sense of conviction. Volatility seems to be in the driving seat - for some time to come!
  • 15. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 North Dakota refuses to flinch as Opec keeps output high Reuters + NewBase Oil executives in North Dakota, a Centre of the US shale revolution, say Opec made a questionable bet when it decided on Friday to stick with a policy that aims to push higher cost American producers out of the market by keeping output high. Here, in the top US oil state after Texas, oil companies have slashed costs over the last seven months to reach fighting weight — one that will allow them to profit despite the more-than 40 per cent drop in prices over the past year and solidify the new American role as the world’s swing supplier. The policy Opec first adopted in November has brought stress, but not catastrophe. Oil companies say they have recalibrated their operations to survive even if prices stay lower for a long while. “High commodity prices hide a lot of inefficiencies in the system,” said Tommy Nusz, chief executive of Oasis Petroleum Inc, which pumps about 58,000 barrels per day in North Dakota. “Most companies will come out of this cycle stronger.” Indeed, while the number of North Dakota drilling rigs has plunged sharply so far this year — the count sat at 81 on Friday, down from 146 in early February — the state’s oil production has proven resilient. Output fell slightly in January and February, but jumped in March, highlighting the potential of shale wells to ramp up or down quickly, regardless of the group’s actions. “Opec still is our main competition,” Lynn Helms, head of North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources and the state oil industry’s main regulator and promoter, said in an interview. “But what you’re seeing now is the Bakken becoming the swing producer, something that has happened relatively quickly because of efficiencies in drilling and completion technology.” Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and the 10 other Opec members have, for their part, seen their strategy of the past half year as successful. Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Naimi and others described Friday’s meeting as “amicable,” and showed little sign of wanting to change an approach that has dampened the US.
  • 16. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 shale boom. WPX Energy Inc, which pumps about 37,000 barrels per day from North Dakota, said oil prices around $40 per barrel are too low, though $100 prices could be too high and that OPEC’s moves, among other market factors, will help set a “happy medium.” “This is the new reality, and it’s driven positive change at WPX and made us more efficient,” said WPX Energy spokesman Kelly Swan. Whiting Petroleum Corp, the state’s largest oil producer, and EOG Resources Inc declined to comment on OPEC’s decision. Continental Resources Inc and Hess Corp did not respond to requests for comment. Helms, the state oil regulator, said North Dakota producers are reacting to a “new normal” reality where they are the new global oil swing producers, constantly needing to react to the “Bakken call.” With about 1.2 million barrels of oil produced each day in the state, North Dakota output may actually be exceeding what the world needs, Helm said, pegging the demand from the state at roughly 1.1 million barrels per day. “I think that’s reflected in the price weakness and the amount of oil that’s in storage,” Helms said. North Dakota and other US oil-producing regions likely won’t see production slip moving forward, but rather see the rate of growth ebb, said Ann-Louise Hittle, lead oil market analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “From OPEC’s perspective, the strategy is working,” Hittle said. “But they can also act as a price- supportive player, which in the long run can only help North Dakota.”
  • 17. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 07 June 2015 K. Al Awadi
  • 18. Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18