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EC6012 Lecture 6

                                          Stephen Kinsella


                                         Notation

                                         Balance Sheet
        EC6012 Lecture 6                 Transactions
                                         Matrix
Government Money with Portfolio Choice
                                         Equation System
                                         Endogenous Money

                                         Problem 1
           Stephen Kinsella              Steady State
                                         Solutions
                                         Pictures

                                         Next Time
             Dept. Economics,
           University of Limerick.
           stephen.kinsella@ul.ie


           January 20, 2008
EC6012 Lecture 6


Notation                     Stephen Kinsella


                            Notation

                            Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet
                            Transactions
                            Matrix

                            Equation System
Transactions Matrix         Endogenous Money

                            Problem 1
                            Steady State
Equation System             Solutions
                            Pictures
   Endogenous Money         Next Time




Problem 1
   Steady State Solutions
   Pictures

Next Time
Notation
 Symbol   Meaning
    G     Pure government expenditures in nominal terms
   Y      National Income in Nominal Terms
    C     Consumption of goods supply by households, in nominal terms
   T      Taxes
    θ     Personal Income Tax Rate
   YD     Disposable Income of Households
   α1     Propensity to consume out of regular (present) income
   α2     Propensity to consume out of past wealth
  ∆Hs     Change in cash money supplied by the central bank
  ∆Hh     Cash money held by households
 H, H−1   High Powered cash money today, and yesterday (−1 )
   V      Wealth of Households, in nominal terms
  Bh,cb   Bills held by households, central banks.
Balance Sheet for PC.

                       Households   Production   Government   Central Bank
       Money              +H                                      −H         0
        Bills            +Bh                        −B           +Bcb        0
 Balance (net worth)      -V                        +V                       0
                           0                         0             0         0
Transactions matrix for PC.
                                                                         Central Bank

                         Households     Production     Government      Current      Capital
     Consumption            -C             +C                                                 0
 Govt. Expenditures                        +G                            -G                   0
   Income = GDP              +Y             -Y                                                0
  Interest Payments      -r−1 · Bh−1                  +r−1 · B−1     +r−1 · Bcb−1             0
 Central Bank Profits                                  +r−1 · Bcb−1   −r−1 · Bcb−1             0
        Taxes               -T              +T                                                0
  Change in Money          −∆H                                                      +∆H       0
    Change in Bills        −∆BH            +∆B                                      −∆Bcb     0
                             0              0               0             0           0       0

                       Table: Transactions matrix for PC.
Equation System                                          EC6012 Lecture 6

                                                          Stephen Kinsella


                                                         Notation

                                                         Balance Sheet
      Y   = G +C                                   (1)   Transactions
                                                         Matrix
     YD = Y − T + r−1 · Bh−1                       (2)
                                                         Equation System
      T   = θ · (Y + r−1 · Bh−1 )                  (3)   Endogenous Money

                                                         Problem 1
      V   = V−1 + (YD − C )                        (4)   Steady State
                                                         Solutions

      C   = α1 · YD + α2 · V−1 , 0 < α1 < α2 < 1   (5)   Pictures

                                                         Next Time
     Hh                               YD
          = (1 − λ0 ) − λ1 · r + λ2 ·              (6)
     V                                V
     Bh                          YD
          = λ 0 + λ 1 · r − λ2 ·                   (7)
     V                            V
     Hh   = V − Bh                                 (8)
Endogenous Money                                              EC6012 Lecture 6

                                                               Stephen Kinsella


                                                              Notation

                                                              Balance Sheet
∆Bs    = Bs − Bs−1 = (G + r−1 · Bs−1 ) − (T + r−1 · Bcb−1 )
                                                       (9)    Transactions
                                                              Matrix
∆Hs    = Hs − Hs−1 = ∆Bcb                             (10)
                                                              Equation System
 Bcb = Bs − Bh                                        (11)    Endogenous Money

                                                              Problem 1
   r   = r                                            (12)    Steady State
                                                              Solutions
                                                              Pictures

                                                              Next Time
Problem 1   EC6012 Lecture 6

             Stephen Kinsella


            Notation

            Balance Sheet

            Transactions
            Matrix

            Equation System
            Endogenous Money

            Problem 1
            Steady State
            Solutions
            Pictures

            Next Time
EC6012 Lecture 6

                                       Stephen Kinsella

  α3 = α2 · (1 − α1 )/α2       (13)   Notation

 ∆V       = α2 · (α3 − V−1 )   (14)   Balance Sheet

V∗                                    Transactions
          = α3                 (15)   Matrix
YD ∗                                  Equation System
               ∗
              Bh · r                  Endogenous Money
      ∗
  r       =                    (16)
               V∗                     Problem 1
                                      Steady State
                                      Solutions
                                      Pictures

                                      Next Time
Money Demand With Random Shocks                                                      EC6012 Lecture 6

                                                                                      Stephen Kinsella
    110
                                                                                     Notation

                                                                                     Balance Sheet
                                               Held money balances
          35.0                                                                       Transactions
                                                 (continuous line)                   Matrix

                                                                                     Equation System
          30.0
                                                                                     Endogenous Money

                                                                                     Problem 1
          25.0                                                                       Steady State
                                                                                     Solutions
                                                                                     Pictures
          20.0                                                                       Next Time
                                                      Money demand
                                                       (dotted line)
          15.0


          10.0
             1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

    Figure 4.1 Money demand and held money balances, when the economy is subjected
    to random shock
                          Figure: Money Demand



          22.5
EC6012 Lecture 6
Evolution of Money/Shares Balances
                                                                                                 Stephen Kinsella
        112   Monetary Economics
                                                                                                Notation
                       Share of                                              Share of
                       money balances                                        bills              Balance Sheet

                                                                                                Transactions
              0.250                                                               0.800
                                                                                                Matrix
                                                 Share of bills in
                                                 household portfolios
                                                                                                Equation System
              0.240                                                               0.790         Endogenous Money

                                                                                                Problem 1
              0.230                                                               0.780         Steady State
                                                                                                Solutions
                                                                                                Pictures
              0.220                                                               0.770         Next Time


              0.210                                                               0.760
                                                   Share of money balances
                                                   in household portfolios
              0.200                                                               0.750

                     1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

        Figure 4.3    Evolution of the shares of bills and money balances in the portfolio of
Figure:households, following anthe sharespointsbills rate of interest on bills
        Evoluation fo increase of 100 of in the and money balances in
household portfolios.
          Figure 4.3 shows how the allocation of wealth between cash and bills
        changes when the interest rate goes up. As such, there is nothing surprising
        here. The model is built in such a way that higher interest rates induce house-
        holds to hold more interest paying bills, following the well-known principle
        that households tend to hold more of an asset when its rate of return is higher
Next Time                EC6012 Lecture 6

                          Stephen Kinsella

   Summarise Chapter 4
                         Notation
   Homework              Balance Sheet

   Presentations         Transactions
                         Matrix

                         Equation System
                         Endogenous Money

                         Problem 1
                         Steady State
                         Solutions
                         Pictures

                         Next Time

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EC6012 Lecture 6

  • 1. EC6012 Lecture 6 Stephen Kinsella Notation Balance Sheet EC6012 Lecture 6 Transactions Matrix Government Money with Portfolio Choice Equation System Endogenous Money Problem 1 Stephen Kinsella Steady State Solutions Pictures Next Time Dept. Economics, University of Limerick. stephen.kinsella@ul.ie January 20, 2008
  • 2. EC6012 Lecture 6 Notation Stephen Kinsella Notation Balance Sheet Balance Sheet Transactions Matrix Equation System Transactions Matrix Endogenous Money Problem 1 Steady State Equation System Solutions Pictures Endogenous Money Next Time Problem 1 Steady State Solutions Pictures Next Time
  • 3. Notation Symbol Meaning G Pure government expenditures in nominal terms Y National Income in Nominal Terms C Consumption of goods supply by households, in nominal terms T Taxes θ Personal Income Tax Rate YD Disposable Income of Households α1 Propensity to consume out of regular (present) income α2 Propensity to consume out of past wealth ∆Hs Change in cash money supplied by the central bank ∆Hh Cash money held by households H, H−1 High Powered cash money today, and yesterday (−1 ) V Wealth of Households, in nominal terms Bh,cb Bills held by households, central banks.
  • 4. Balance Sheet for PC. Households Production Government Central Bank Money +H −H 0 Bills +Bh −B +Bcb 0 Balance (net worth) -V +V 0 0 0 0 0
  • 5. Transactions matrix for PC. Central Bank Households Production Government Current Capital Consumption -C +C 0 Govt. Expenditures +G -G 0 Income = GDP +Y -Y 0 Interest Payments -r−1 · Bh−1 +r−1 · B−1 +r−1 · Bcb−1 0 Central Bank Profits +r−1 · Bcb−1 −r−1 · Bcb−1 0 Taxes -T +T 0 Change in Money −∆H +∆H 0 Change in Bills −∆BH +∆B −∆Bcb 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Table: Transactions matrix for PC.
  • 6. Equation System EC6012 Lecture 6 Stephen Kinsella Notation Balance Sheet Y = G +C (1) Transactions Matrix YD = Y − T + r−1 · Bh−1 (2) Equation System T = θ · (Y + r−1 · Bh−1 ) (3) Endogenous Money Problem 1 V = V−1 + (YD − C ) (4) Steady State Solutions C = α1 · YD + α2 · V−1 , 0 < α1 < α2 < 1 (5) Pictures Next Time Hh YD = (1 − λ0 ) − λ1 · r + λ2 · (6) V V Bh YD = λ 0 + λ 1 · r − λ2 · (7) V V Hh = V − Bh (8)
  • 7. Endogenous Money EC6012 Lecture 6 Stephen Kinsella Notation Balance Sheet ∆Bs = Bs − Bs−1 = (G + r−1 · Bs−1 ) − (T + r−1 · Bcb−1 ) (9) Transactions Matrix ∆Hs = Hs − Hs−1 = ∆Bcb (10) Equation System Bcb = Bs − Bh (11) Endogenous Money Problem 1 r = r (12) Steady State Solutions Pictures Next Time
  • 8. Problem 1 EC6012 Lecture 6 Stephen Kinsella Notation Balance Sheet Transactions Matrix Equation System Endogenous Money Problem 1 Steady State Solutions Pictures Next Time
  • 9. EC6012 Lecture 6 Stephen Kinsella α3 = α2 · (1 − α1 )/α2 (13) Notation ∆V = α2 · (α3 − V−1 ) (14) Balance Sheet V∗ Transactions = α3 (15) Matrix YD ∗ Equation System ∗ Bh · r Endogenous Money ∗ r = (16) V∗ Problem 1 Steady State Solutions Pictures Next Time
  • 10. Money Demand With Random Shocks EC6012 Lecture 6 Stephen Kinsella 110 Notation Balance Sheet Held money balances 35.0 Transactions (continuous line) Matrix Equation System 30.0 Endogenous Money Problem 1 25.0 Steady State Solutions Pictures 20.0 Next Time Money demand (dotted line) 15.0 10.0 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Figure 4.1 Money demand and held money balances, when the economy is subjected to random shock Figure: Money Demand 22.5
  • 11. EC6012 Lecture 6 Evolution of Money/Shares Balances Stephen Kinsella 112 Monetary Economics Notation Share of Share of money balances bills Balance Sheet Transactions 0.250 0.800 Matrix Share of bills in household portfolios Equation System 0.240 0.790 Endogenous Money Problem 1 0.230 0.780 Steady State Solutions Pictures 0.220 0.770 Next Time 0.210 0.760 Share of money balances in household portfolios 0.200 0.750 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Figure 4.3 Evolution of the shares of bills and money balances in the portfolio of Figure:households, following anthe sharespointsbills rate of interest on bills Evoluation fo increase of 100 of in the and money balances in household portfolios. Figure 4.3 shows how the allocation of wealth between cash and bills changes when the interest rate goes up. As such, there is nothing surprising here. The model is built in such a way that higher interest rates induce house- holds to hold more interest paying bills, following the well-known principle that households tend to hold more of an asset when its rate of return is higher
  • 12. Next Time EC6012 Lecture 6 Stephen Kinsella Summarise Chapter 4 Notation Homework Balance Sheet Presentations Transactions Matrix Equation System Endogenous Money Problem 1 Steady State Solutions Pictures Next Time