Keynote von Ken Doctor (news industry analyst, Santa Cruz / USA) auf dem Tag des WIrtschaftsjournalismus 2013 in Köln

1. Crossover
Newsonomics
Ken Doctor
New Industry Analyst & Author,
Business Journalism Day
Newsonomics
March 13, 2013
Thursday, March 14, 13 1

2. Crossover
Newsonomics
Thursday, March 14, 13 2

3. Today
Our Cast of Characters
The Age of Crossover
4 Major Realities
Sneak Previews!
The 1, 2, 3, 4 Strategy
Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
Thursday, March 14, 13 3

4. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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5. Mark Thompson
Across Oceans, Media
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6. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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7. Robert
Thomson
“New”
NewsCorp
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8. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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9. Warren
Buffett
BH Media
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Thursday, March 14, 13 6

10. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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11. Aaron
Kushner
Orange
County
Register
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Thursday, March 14, 13 7

12. Jim
Moroney
Legs
of
Revenue
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Thursday, March 14, 13 8

13. Jim
Moroney
5
Legs
of
Revenue
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14. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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15. Gary
Farrugia
The Day
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Thursday, March 14, 13 9

16. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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17. Peter
Liguori
Tribune
Company
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Thursday, March 14, 13 10

18. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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19. Laura
Lang
Time Inc.
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Thursday, March 14, 13 11

20. Rob
Grimshaw
The FT
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21. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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22. Alisa
Bowen
News Corp
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Thursday, March 14, 13 13

23. Rolv Ryssdal
Schibsted
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Thursday, March 14, 13 14

24. Mathias
Dopfner
Axel Springer
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25. Al Jazeera:
A Growing
News
Company
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26. Arianna is
Everywhere
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27. Arianna is
Everywhere
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28. Mark
Zuckerberg
Life is
GOOD
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29. Larry Page’s
Google
Dominates
Digital
Advertising
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30. The Voice
of God
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31. The Voice
of God
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32. Jon Stewart
is the
New
Authority
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33. Jon Stewart
is the
New
Authority
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34. Seeking A New
Growth Formula
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35. Seeking A New
Growth Formula
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36. Are you keeping up
with the changes?
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37. In
Play
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38. The Great Metro
Sell-Off
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39. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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40. Boston Globe
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41. Boston Globe
Los Angeles Times
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42. Boston Globe
Los Angeles Times
Chicago Tribune
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Thursday, March 14, 13 26

43. Boston Globe
Los Angeles Times
Chicago Tribune
Hartford Courant
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Thursday, March 14, 13 26

44. Boston Globe
Los Angeles Times
Chicago Tribune
Hartford Courant
Orlando Sentinel
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45. Boston Globe
Los Angeles Times
Chicago Tribune
Hartford Courant
Orlando Sentinel
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
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46. Boston Globe
Los Angeles Times
Chicago Tribune
Hartford Courant
Orlando Sentinel
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Baltimore Sun
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47. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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48. Orange County Register
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49. Orange County Register
San Diego Union-
Tribune
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Thursday, March 14, 13 27

50. Orange County Register
San Diego Union-
Tribune
Philadelphia Inquirer
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Thursday, March 14, 13 27

51. Orange County Register
San Diego Union-
Tribune
Philadelphia Inquirer
Philadelphia Daily News
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Thursday, March 14, 13 27

52. Orange County Register
San Diego Union-
Tribune
Philadelphia Inquirer
Philadelphia Daily News
Tampa Tribune
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53. Orange County Register
San Diego Union-
Tribune
Philadelphia Inquirer
Philadelphia Daily News
Tampa Tribune
Chicago Sun-Times
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Thursday, March 14, 13 27

54. Orange County Register
San Diego Union-
Tribune
Philadelphia Inquirer
Philadelphia Daily News
Tampa Tribune
Chicago Sun-Times
Rocky Mountain News, Seattle P-I
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55. Orange County Register
San Diego Union-
Tribune
Philadelphia Inquirer
Philadelphia Daily News
Tampa Tribune
Chicago Sun-Times
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56. BoGlobe
$100M, Mid-2013
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57. BoGlobe
$100M, Mid-2013
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58. Tribune Papers
$750M, Mid-2013
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59. Tribune Papers
$750M, Mid-2013
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60. In the Age
of
Crossover
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61. Print Digital (‘90s)
Print Digital (‘00s)
Print Digital (‘10s)
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62. From Mostly
Print/A Little
Digital to
Mostly Digital/
Some Print
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63. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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64. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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65. Crossover
From Analog to Digital
From Physical to Virtual
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66. CLOSED!
Video Stores
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67. CLOSED!
Video Stores
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68. CLOSED!
Music Stores
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69. CLOSED!
Music Stores
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70. CLOSED!
Bookstores
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71. CLOSED!
Bookstores
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72. CLOSING?
“Electronics” Stores
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73. CLOSING?
“Electronics” Stores
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74. CLOSING?
“Electronics” Stores
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75. CLOSED!
Newspapers
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76. CLOSED!
Newspapers
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77. Remember...
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78. Kodak
-49%
Newspapers
-45%
Sears
-31%
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41
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79. Crossover
From Analog to Digital
From Physical to Virtual
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80. Smartphones Surpass
Dumb Phones in 2013
@54% Worldwide
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43
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81. Ebooks Surpass
Print
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44
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82. Ebooks Surpass
Print
Kindle owners buy 4X print-only buyers
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44
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83. Digital Music Sales
Surpass Physical
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45
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84. Up from Nothing
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85. Digital Ad Spending
Surpasses Print
Global * U.S.* Brasil *
Australia * Russia
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47
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86. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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87. 4
Major Realities
of 2013
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88. #1
Print is Ending:
(Or is It?)
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89. News
Crossover
Strategies
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90. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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91. Advance’s
Digital-First,
Print-Last
Revolution
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92. Now 3 Days
a Week,
Reinforcing
Sunday
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93. Now 3 Days
a Week,
Reinforcing
Sunday
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94. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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95. Concerned
Reader
New Orleans
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96. Michigan
New Orleans
Alabama
Syracuse
Harrisburg
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97. Next Up?
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98. 88%
New Orleans’ Print
Revenue Retention
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99. 1%
New Orleans’
Print Sales
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100. Advance’s Arithmetic
Rapid, Digital-First: Three days of print,
intended to capture 85% of current print revenue
Rapid Cost Reduction: About 27%
reduction in costs
Profit Improvement: About 11%
Big Question: How Sustainable?
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101. Digital First Media
Goes 3 Days a Week
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102. Digital First -- or
Only
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103. OC Register
Print-First,
Reader-First
Revolution
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104. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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105. Major Content
Expansion
Register’s 25 community newspapers now carry 3X more content,
and are wholly redesigned into broadsheets
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106. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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107. 100 New
Editorial
Hires
+25 Interns
300 Total
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108. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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109. +5%
Circulation
Up
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110. #2
Reader Revenue
Revolution (& Truth
About Paywalls)
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111. Digital Circulation
is
Biggest
Game-Changer
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112. More than
500 Dailies
Worldwide Will Have
Paywalls by Mid-2013
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113. Circulation
Revenues
2005-2011
Slipping
Downward
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114. Circulation
Revenues
2012-?
Upward Slope, if
Paywalls in Place
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115. U.S. Dailies
Circulation Revenue
$10 Billion
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116. For Top Models
Circulation Revenue
Increase Now Matching
+ the Ad Decrease
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117. Charleston Post &
Courier
(Last 5 mos, 2012)
Ad revenue down = @2-4%
Circ revenue up = 10%
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118. New York Times
(2012)
Ad revenue down = 7.5.%
Circ revenue up = 8.5%
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119. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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120. The Game:
Getting to Zero
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121. NYT’s Uniques: 30M
NYT’s Print Readers:
1M
The 3% Solution
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122. 3% Solution
A small percentage of web
uniques form a new business
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123. The Sunday Paper
is the New Play
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124. Digital Only: $260
Digital + Sunday= $210
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125. Sunday
30-40% of total ad
revenue
50% of total ad profit
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126. Paywalls
2012
Which
Readers?
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127. You Know Them
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128. They Are
Loyal
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129. Digital:
83% of Print Price
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130. All Access is the
Business Model
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131. All Access is the
Business Model
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132. All Access is the
Business Model
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133. All Access is the
Business Model
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134. All Access is the
Business Model
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135. All Access is the
Business Model
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136. All Access is the
Business Model
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137. All Access is the
Business Model
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138. ...& Uniqueness
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139. “Membership”
Replaces
Subscriptions
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140. Membership
Arrives
L.A. Times, Boston Globe, The Day, a small
daily in Connecticut
The idea: Deepen the relationship to
subscribers, especially All-Access
subscribers
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141. The Day Member Archetypes
“Carol and Michael”
Born in 1956 Born in 1954
Registered for Sun Winefest HH Income: $100,000+
Dream Giveaway
Zillow Home Value: $455,000
Reads Grace magazine
and Sound & Country Downloaded tickets to
Eastern CT Symphony through
The Day Passport rewards program
Registered user on theday.com
Signed up for daily deals
$780.16 in total Consumer
Revenue since 2008
Two-week vacation
each July since 2003 Active Mon-Sun Subscriber
on EZ Pay since 2001
Homeowners Registered user on theday.com
in Old Lyme, CT Signed up for breaking news
custom Town Page: Old Lyme custom Town Page: Waterford
Indexes high for Indexes high for
having an annuity international travel 1x per year
Likely empty nesters
PRIZM Demographic Profile
Membership
Social Group: Country Squires
Lifestage Group: Accumulated Wealth
=Targeting
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142. The Pricing
Revolution
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143. $99: Print + Digital
$69: Digital Only
$39: 2010 Print Price
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144. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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145. The
Economist
A Pricing
Leader
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146. $160
from
$127
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147. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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148. Big
Upward
Trend
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149. The New
Dispatch
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150. The New
Dispatch
$360
from
$180
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151. Paywall Trends:
Pricing Up
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152. Paywall Trends:
Fewer Articles
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153. ...And Yet
Paywalls 1.0
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154. Multiplying Pay
Middlemen
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155. New Ways to Pay
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156. New Ways to Pay
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157. Bundles
PPV
Time Passes
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158. E-Book Push
Globe: At least monthly
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159. E-Book Push
Globe: At least monthly
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160. Bite-Sized Paid Content
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161. #3
It’s a
5- Screen
World
&
The Tablet is Key
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162. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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163. Desktop/Laptop
Smartphone
Tablet
Connected TV
Connected Car
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164. Screens in Motion
(Multi-Screen World Report)
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165. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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166. The Mobile
Money
Gap
33% - Traffic
5% - Revenue
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167. #4
Advertising
is
Morphing
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168. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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169. U.S. Newspaper Ad Revenues
1/2-Sized
(in 5+ years)
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170. The Big Picture
Newspapers: Down in high single digits
Magazines: Down
Broadcast: A little up
Cable: Up
Digital: Up most dramatically
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110
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171. It’s About
Time
& Money
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172. Time Spent / Ad
Revenue Mismatch
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173. Digital Global Adspend
2012:
$100
Billion
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113
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174. 67%: Big 5 Take
80%: Google in Paid Search, 1/2 of all
digital ads
Advanced Targeting:
Key to success
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175. At $4B+, Facebook
Digital Ad Revenue
Exceeds of Daily
Newspapers’
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176. Newspapers Are
in the Wrong End
of the Market
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177. It’s About
Performance
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178. Movement to
Sponsorship,
“Share of Voice”
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179. Movement to Video
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180. Movement to Video
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181. Movement to Events
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182. Movement to Events
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183. Content
Marketing
Arrives
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184. Linking Top News
Brands
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185. “Brand Connect”
Washington Post
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186. Brand Connect
Washington Post
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187. Speakeasy:
Connecting Social to Content
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188. Newspapers Find
3rd Leg of
Revenue:
Digital Agencies
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189. Media
Become
Re-Sellers
SEM
SEO
Site Building
Facebook
Mobile
Yahoo
Content Marketing
Groupon!
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190. The Big Market
27 million
small/medium
businesses
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191. Emerging Business Model
Reader Revenue
Ad Revenue
Marketing Services
Events
In-Sourcing Work
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192. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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193. Sneak
Previews!
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194. Sneak Previews!
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195. Sneak Previews!
And....
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196. Sneak Previews!
And....
Google Glass
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197. Sneak Previews!
Connected
Cars
Ford Sync
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198. Sneak Previews!
Connected
Cars
Ford Sync
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199. Sneak Previews!
Amazon
Same-Day
Reshapes
Retail
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200. Sneak Previews!
Amazon
Same-Day
Reshapes
Retail
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201. Sneak Previews!
Comp-Gen
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202. Sneak Previews!
Comp-Gen
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203. Top 10 Lists
Resume Tips
Best Parks
Toddler Tips
Mayors
+++
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204. Sneak Preview
Skift:
New Travel Site
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205. Sneak Preview
Skift:
New Travel Site
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206. California’s
New Site
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207. What Does Your Pyramid Look Like?
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208. What Does Your Pyramid Look Like?
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209. Professional Content
Expert Content
Community Content
Computer-Generated
Content
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210. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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211. Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013
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212. #12
1, 2, 3, 4
is the Emerging
Media Model
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213. The 1, 2, 3, 4
Strategy
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214. 1 Brand
Unified Brand
Message
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215. Media Anywhere
Multiplies Potential
Audience
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216. All-Access
is
The Media Model
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217. 2 Strong Legs
of Revenue
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218. Re-Connection
Print Ads & Circ
Digital Ads & Circ
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219. 3 Products
Print Online Mobile
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220. 4G
Video is ascendant
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221. 1 Brand
2 Legs of Revenue
3 Products
4G
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222. The New
Virtuous Circle
Data Asset
Management is the
New Base of the
Business,
Reconnecting
Readers &
Commerce
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223. 2020: Telling Stories About
Daily Newspapers
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224. Contact
kdoctor@gmail.com
Twitter: @kdoctor
www.newsonomics.com
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