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F****ing Estimates
what’s the problem?
F****ing Estimates
F****ing Estimates
Denver Intl. Airport
Denver Intl. Airport
Eurofighter Typhoon
Eurofighter Typhoon
Sydney Opera House
Sydney Opera House
Vicious Cycle in IT
    BUSINESS WANTS
         A LOT
                          WE GIVE
BUSINESS STARTS         UNREALISTIC
   TO PRESS              ESTIMATES


              IT WE FAIL TO
                 BECOMES EVEN
                  DELIVER
                  HARDER TO
                   DELIVER
F****ing Estimates
Let’s run an experiment!
A simple task


              +                  = $1,10

The bat costs $1,00 more than the ball.
How much does the ball cost?
F****ing Estimates
Planning
         Fallacy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy
wishful
thinking           optimism bias


           Planning Fallacy
Student were asked to
 assign probabilities of completion
 time

 50%           75%            99
                              %

 1.Nov         20.Nov         10.Dec
what would you think?
real completion rate


14%            19%             45
                               %
  50%                75%             99
                                     %

      1.Nov           20.Nov         10.Dec
Estimating time in real life
wishful thinking                  optimism bias




                 Planning Fallacy




student’s
syndrome              procrastination
F****ing Estimates
wishful thinking                  optimism bias



perfectionism
                       Planning Fallacy




                                      procrastination
           student syndrome
“Anything less than perfect is unacceptable”




“Work takes as much time as you have”
          Parkinson’s Law
gps paradox
                                            optimism bias
      wishful thinking



perfectionism
                     Planning Fallacy




student syndrome
                          procrastination
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gps paradox



         wishful thinking                         optimism bias



   perfectionism
                        Planning Fallacy




student syndrome                           procrastination


              delay
           propagation
E. Goldratt

   Delays get
  accumulated.

Early completions
     get lost.
gps paradox



      wishful thinking                       optimism bias



perfectionism
                     Planning Fallacy




 student syndrome                        procrastination



           delay propagation
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4x

            3x
                 2x
                      1.5x
time
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what to do?
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ONE MORE TIME
1. Create …
2. Never …
3. … size …
4. Measure …
5. … = … /…
6. …. customers
7. Incrementally …
F****ing Estimates

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