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US Leveraged Finance Market Update
         December, 2012
  Steve Miller - Managing Director
S&P/LSTA Index - Average Price
97




 95




 93




 91




 89

  1/11    3/11    5/11    7/11    9/11      11/11   1/12   3/12   5/12   7/12   9/12   11/12


Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Visible Loan Flows (Source: LCD, EPFR)


  $8B

                                              CLO Issuance
                                              Loan Mutual Flows
 $6B




                                                          Text
 $4B




 $1B




-$1B
    11/11 12/11       1/12     2/12    3/12    4/12      5/12    6/12   7/12   8/12   9/12   10/12 11/12

       Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR
S&P/LSTA Index Loans Outstanding

$550B




$517B




$483B




$450B
     1/11    3/11     5/11    7/11     9/11   11/11   1/12   3/12   5/12   7/12   9/12   11/12




Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans
                                                  All-BB
                                                  All-B
   9%




   8%




    7%




    5%




    4%




    3%


   1/11     3/11    5/11    7/11     9/11      11/11   1/12   3/12   5/12   7/12   9/12   11/12

   Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Dividend Loan Volume
 $10B




  $8B




  $5B




  $3B




  $0B
        1/12    2/12     3/12     4/12      5/12   6/12   7/12   8/12   9/12   10/12   11/12


Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Loan Default Rate

 12%


10%


 7%



5%



2%



0%
 12/98      8/00       4/02      12/03      8/05   4/07   12/08   8/10   11/12

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Loan Market - Outlook

                  • Strong indications for demand:

                             > CLO calendar chock-a-block

                             > Retail flows

                             > Institutional allocations


                   • Deal flow: more hazy


                  • Macro concerns abound




Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Final Thought - Record Leverage Finance Volume
                        Pro-Rata             Institutional      High-Yield
$800B




$600B




$400B




$200B




  $0B
    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011




                                                                                 .11


                                                                                          2
                                                                                       .1
                                                                                 29

                                                                                      29
                                                                               1.

                                                                                    1.
                                                                             -1

                                                                                  -1
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                                                                        YT


                                                                                 D
                                                                               YT
 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
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December 2012, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text US Leveraged Finance Market Update December, 2012 Steve Miller - Managing Director
  • 2.
  • 3. S&P/LSTA Index - Average Price 97 95 93 91 89 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. Visible Loan Flows (Source: LCD, EPFR) $8B CLO Issuance Loan Mutual Flows $6B Text $4B $1B -$1B 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR
  • 5. S&P/LSTA Index Loans Outstanding $550B $517B $483B $450B 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 6. Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans All-BB All-B 9% 8% 7% 5% 4% 3% 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. Dividend Loan Volume $10B $8B $5B $3B $0B 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Loan Default Rate 12% 10% 7% 5% 2% 0% 12/98 8/00 4/02 12/03 8/05 4/07 12/08 8/10 11/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 9. Loan Market - Outlook • Strong indications for demand: > CLO calendar chock-a-block > Retail flows > Institutional allocations • Deal flow: more hazy • Macro concerns abound Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 10. Final Thought - Record Leverage Finance Volume Pro-Rata Institutional High-Yield $800B $600B $400B $200B $0B 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 .11 2 .1 29 29 1. 1. -1 -1 D YT D YT Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 11. Follow LCD www.lcdcomps.com news, analysis, research, archives www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432 LCD Leveraged Loan Group ... 9,500+ contacts www.twitter.com/lcdnews Headlines, market chatter www.facebook.com/lcdcomps/ Daily Playbook, headlines, video analysis
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