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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
              January, 2013
        Sucheet Gupte - Director
European Market Trends
Text



       • December loan issuance was nil, HY issuance was €1.5B.

       • 2012 loan issuance was €28.5B, HY issuance was €36.4B.

       • Estimated inflows into HY funds were €245M for December,
         bringing estimated 2012 year-end number to €7.2B.

       • Secondary markets were up:
         Loan markets went up 51 bps to finish the month at 97.34
         HY markets were up 223 bps to finish the month at 103.04.

       • In 2012, secondary loan markets were up 330 bps for the year,
         HY markets were up 13 points for the year.

       • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) finished the
         month up at 0.72% and the year at 9.48%.

       • However, default rates climbed higher during the month.
European Loan Flow Name Prices
    100


     99
                                                      Text
     97


      96


      94


          93


          91

               1/11   3/11   5/11    7/11     9/11 11/17 1/12   3/12   5/12   7/12   9/12   12/12
.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices

    106


    102

                                           Text
     98


      94


      89


          85


          81

               1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12   12/12
.     Source: Bloomberg
ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return
    2.5%
                                        December 2012:   + 0.72%
                          Text          November 2012:   + 0.66%
                                        Jan-Dec 2012:    + 9.48%
                                        Jan-Dec 2011:    - 0.02%
    1.9%




    1.2%




    0.6%




    -0.1%
         12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12

.     Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
Volume: New-issue Loans vs. HY Bonds
            10
                                                         HY bonds
                                     Text                Loans

            8
€billions




            5




            3


                                                                                     €1.5B

            0                                                                          €0B
            11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12

 .           Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
                 Default Rate by Principal Amount                       Default Rate by Issuer Count


    16%                                                       16%


    13%                                                       13%


    10%                                                       10%



    6%                                                    Text
                                                             6%



    3%                                                        3%



    0%                                                        0%
      2/09        2/10         2/11        12/11      12/12     2/09   2/10       12/11                12/12

.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Themes to watch for
Text




 • Strong inflows into HY funds, resulting in strong demand for HY issuers.



• Bond for loan-take-outs will continue to keep apace.


• Issuers from the Eurozone peripheral countries continue to access HY markets.
   Some have made their tax regimes far more amenable for issuers than before.



• Sell-side bankers and sponsors are optimistic about M&A provided there are no
   unexpected shocks to the system.
Text
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January 2013, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update January, 2013 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 2. European Market Trends Text • December loan issuance was nil, HY issuance was €1.5B. • 2012 loan issuance was €28.5B, HY issuance was €36.4B. • Estimated inflows into HY funds were €245M for December, bringing estimated 2012 year-end number to €7.2B. • Secondary markets were up: Loan markets went up 51 bps to finish the month at 97.34 HY markets were up 223 bps to finish the month at 103.04. • In 2012, secondary loan markets were up 330 bps for the year, HY markets were up 13 points for the year. • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) finished the month up at 0.72% and the year at 9.48%. • However, default rates climbed higher during the month.
  • 3. European Loan Flow Name Prices 100 99 Text 97 96 94 93 91 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/17 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 12/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 Text 98 94 89 85 81 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 12/12 . Source: Bloomberg
  • 5. ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return 2.5% December 2012: + 0.72% Text November 2012: + 0.66% Jan-Dec 2012: + 9.48% Jan-Dec 2011: - 0.02% 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% -0.1% 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 . Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
  • 6. Volume: New-issue Loans vs. HY Bonds 10 HY bonds Text Loans 8 €billions 5 3 €1.5B 0 €0B 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 16% 16% 13% 13% 10% 10% 6% Text 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 2/09 2/10 2/11 12/11 12/12 2/09 2/10 12/11 12/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Themes to watch for Text • Strong inflows into HY funds, resulting in strong demand for HY issuers. • Bond for loan-take-outs will continue to keep apace. • Issuers from the Eurozone peripheral countries continue to access HY markets. Some have made their tax regimes far more amenable for issuers than before. • Sell-side bankers and sponsors are optimistic about M&A provided there are no unexpected shocks to the system.
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