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US Leveraged Finance Market Update
         September, 2012
  Steve Miller - Managing Director
S&P/LSTA Index - Average Price
97




 95




 93




 91




 89

  2/11      4/11      6/11      8/11        10/11   12/11   2/12   4/12   6/12   8/12


Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Visible Loan Flows

$6B

                                 CLO Issuance
                                 Loan Mutual Flows
$3B




                                                     Text
$0B




-$3B




-$6B
    6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12

   Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR
High-Yield Takeout Activity

 $8B




 $6B




  $4B




   $2B




   $0B
         10/11   11/11    12/11   1/12      2/12   3/12   4/12   5/12   6/12   7/12   8/12




Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans
9%




8%




7%




6%




 5%

     8/11        10/11         12/11        2/12   4/12   6/12   8/12

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Forward Calendar for M&A Loans

 $25B




 $17B




  $8B




 $0B
        10/11   11/11   12/11   1/12   2/12   3/12   4/12   4/12   5/12   6/12   7/12 As of 9/5/12



Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Loan Default Rate

 12%


10%


 7%



5%



2%



0%
 12/98       8/00       4/02      12/03     8/05   4/07   12/08   8/10   8/12

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
A few final points


• Stars aligned for volume boom


• CLO market strong


• Macro risks to the forecast remain
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www.lcdcomps.com
news, analysis, research, archives


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September 2012, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text US Leveraged Finance Market Update September, 2012 Steve Miller - Managing Director
  • 2. S&P/LSTA Index - Average Price 97 95 93 91 89 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 3. Visible Loan Flows $6B CLO Issuance Loan Mutual Flows $3B Text $0B -$3B -$6B 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR
  • 4. High-Yield Takeout Activity $8B $6B $4B $2B $0B 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 5. Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 8/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 6. Forward Calendar for M&A Loans $25B $17B $8B $0B 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 As of 9/5/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. Loan Default Rate 12% 10% 7% 5% 2% 0% 12/98 8/00 4/02 12/03 8/05 4/07 12/08 8/10 8/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. A few final points • Stars aligned for volume boom • CLO market strong • Macro risks to the forecast remain
  • 9. Follow LCD www.lcdcomps.com news, analysis, research, archives www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432 LCD Leveraged Loan Group ... 9,000+ contacts www.twitter.com/lcdnews Headlines, market chatter www.facebook.com/lcdcomps/ Daily Playbook, headlines, video analysis
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