How to measure influence in social networks

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Planning-ness

Sinan Aral's talk on measuring influence given at Planning-ness 2012

Empresariales Tecnología

@sinanaral

Influence Influence inMedia
Measuring in Social Social
Networks
(Media) Networks

@sinanaral
@sinanaral

@sinanaral

The Problem
Influence in Social Media
IndustrialNetworks
Strength Examples

@sinanaral
How to Mine An Influence Graph

@sinanaral

Checks every
37
minutes

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

Posts to
5x
daily

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

Reviews
on 4x
per
week

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

Updates every
1
hour

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

If we can understand
how behaviors spread…

@sinanaral

from person

to person

to person
to person

@sinanaral

condom use, exercise,
productivity, tolerance,
financial responsibility,
sustainability, economic
development…

@sinanaral

smoking, dirty needle
sharing, fraud, default,
obesity, violence,
hatred, waste,
poverty…

@sinanaral

Influence in Social Media
Networks

@sinanaral

@sinanaral

The “Reflection Problem”

Human behaviors cluster in
network space and time…

but is this because of
peer influence or
alternate explanations?

@sinanaral

“Obesity is Contagious”

Christakis & Fowler (2007)

@sinanaral

Homophily

“Birds of a feather,
flock together”

Robert Burton (1577-1640)

@sinanaral

“(People) love those who
are like themselves”

Aristotle

@sinanaral

“Similarity begets
friendship”

Plato

@sinanaral

“Hanging out with a bad
crowd will get you into
trouble”

Sinan’s Mom

“Everything is Contagious”

Alternative explanations:
 Reflection

 Homophily

 Confounding
“Loneliness is Contagious”

@sinanaral

The “iPad Effect”
16
P(Adoption | Friend Adopts)

14

12
INFLUENCE

10 Controlling for correlated preferences
and confounding effects
8

6

4

2

0
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
DAYS SINCE LAUNCH

@sinanaral

“VIRAL DESIGN” Can we engineer products so
they are more likely to be virally shared?

@sinanaral

The Setup

App

 Randomly Enabled Viral Messaging.
 Observed the Adoption and Use of the App by Friends of
Control and Experimental Group Users.

@sinanaral

Flixster - An Example Facebook Application

@sinanaral

Users can invite their friends
to adopt the application and
join their social network on
the application itself.

@sinanaral

Users can invite friends to install this application and
include a personal message

@sinanaral

Which Features Spread Contagion Best?

Personal Passive
Invitations Awareness

Influence Per
Message
↑6% ↑2%
Global Diffusion ↑98% ↑246%
Stickiness ↑17% 0%

@sinanaral

http://www.followthehashtag.com/

@sinanaral

NodeXL
http://nodexl.codeplex.com

Gephi
https://gephi.org/

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How to measure influence in social networks

1. @sinanaral Influence Influence inMedia Measuring in Social Social Networks (Media) Networks @sinanaral @sinanaral

2. @sinanaral The Problem Influence in Social Media IndustrialNetworks Strength Examples @sinanaral How to Mine An Influence Graph

3. @sinanaral The Problem Influence in Social Media IndustrialNetworks Strength Examples @sinanaral How to Mine An Influence Graph

4. @sinanaral

5. @sinanaral @sinanaral

6. @sinanaral Checks every 37 minutes @sinanaral

7. @sinanaral Posts to 5x daily @sinanaral

8. @sinanaral Reviews on 4x per week @sinanaral

9. @sinanaral Updates every 1 hour @sinanaral

10. @sinanaral

11. @sinanaral

12. @sinanaral @sinanaral

13. @sinanaral

14. @sinanaral

15. @sinanaral If we can understand how behaviors spread…

16. @sinanaral from person to person to person to person

17. @sinanaral we could promote

18. @sinanaral condom use, exercise, productivity, tolerance, financial responsibility, sustainability, economic development…

19. @sinanaral or contain

20. @sinanaral smoking, dirty needle sharing, fraud, default, obesity, violence, hatred, waste, poverty…

21. @sinanaral

22. @sinanaral Influence in Social Media Networks @sinanaral

23. @sinanaral

24. @sinanaral The “Reflection Problem” Human behaviors cluster in network space and time… but is this because of peer influence or alternate explanations?

25. @sinanaral “Obesity is Contagious” Christakis & Fowler (2007)

26. @sinanaral Homophily “Birds of a feather, flock together” Robert Burton (1577-1640)

27. @sinanaral “(People) love those who are like themselves” Aristotle

28. @sinanaral “Similarity begets friendship” Plato

29. @sinanaral “Hanging out with a bad crowd will get you into trouble” Sinan’s Mom

30. “Everything is Contagious” Alternative explanations:  Reflection  Homophily  Confounding “Loneliness is Contagious”

31. @sinanaral The Problem Influence in Social Media IndustrialNetworks Strength Examples @sinanaral How to Mine An Influence Graph

32. @sinanaral

33. @sinanaral The “iPad Effect” 16 P(Adoption | Friend Adopts) 14 12 INFLUENCE 10 Controlling for correlated preferences and confounding effects 8 6 4 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 DAYS SINCE LAUNCH

34. @sinanaral

35. @sinanaral “VIRAL DESIGN” Can we engineer products so they are more likely to be virally shared?

36. @sinanaral The Setup App  Randomly Enabled Viral Messaging.  Observed the Adoption and Use of the App by Friends of Control and Experimental Group Users.

37. @sinanaral Flixster - An Example Facebook Application

38. @sinanaral Flixster - An Example Facebook Application

39. @sinanaral Users can invite their friends to adopt the application and join their social network on the application itself.

40. @sinanaral Users can invite friends to install this application and include a personal message

41. @sinanaral

42. @sinanaral

43. @sinanaral

44. @sinanaral Which Features Spread Contagion Best? Personal Passive Invitations Awareness Influence Per Message ↑6% ↑2% Global Diffusion ↑98% ↑246% Stickiness ↑17% 0%

45. @sinanaral

46. @sinanaral

47. @sinanaral

48. @sinanaral

49. @thesocialcure

50. @sinanaral The Problem Influence in Social Media IndustrialNetworks Strength Examples @sinanaral How to Mine An Influence Graph

51. @sinanaral #planningness

52. @sinanaral http://www.followthehashtag.com/

53. @sinanaral #planningness 2012

54. @sinanaral #planningness

55. @sinanaral

56. @sinanaral #planningness