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Denmark Telecommunications Report Q4 2011

Published:November 2011
No.Of Pages:105
Price:US $ 530




While there is no new regulatory data available this quarter, BMI has updated our forecasts
for the mobile, mobile ARPU and fixed-line markets based on fresh data sourced from
Denmark's fixed-line, mobile and broadband operators, supplementing earlier data from the
National IT and Telecom Agency (NITA). In addition to updated Denmark
Telecommunications Market forecasts and data analysis, we have included operator tables
for converged service provision for the first time, detailing the recent performance of the
incumbent, TDC’s and TeliaSonera’s wireline performance.

Following four quarters of successive subscriber losses from Q210 to Q111, losing a total of
a quarter of a million subscribers, the mobile market returned to growth in Q211. There
were 173,00 net additions, taking the total to 6.836mn. However, with penetration
remaining above 120% we do not believe this quarter of net additions signals a return to
growth in the market. Instead we expect the market to continue to experience subscriber
losses over the medium term, punctuated by quarters of net additions. It is not possible to
forecast when inactive subscriber discounting will occur, and we therefore forecast slow
steady declines in subscriptions However, in reality we expect quarterly growth to
demonstrate considerably more volatility.

Browse All IT & Telecommunication Market Research Reports

Meanwhile, the market for traditional fixed-line services based on PSTN and ISDN
technology has been shrinking, due to the growing use of substitute services such as mobile
broadband. During the next five years, we forecast that Denmark’s fixed-line market will
shrink at annual average growth of 5.8%.Within fixed-line we expect VoIP to account for an
increasing share of total subscriptions as customers are attracted to the service through
bundled service packages including pay-TV and broadband services. By the end of 2015 we
expect penetration to fall to 33.2% (new population forecasts resulted in higher penetration
rates despite reining in of our fixed-line usage forecasts even further). Denmark's fixed
broadband market appears to heading for a downtrend with TDC and Telenor reporting
subscriber net losses despite efforts to offer a wider range of attractively-priced bundles.
BMI believes the decline in fixed broadband subscriptions is the result of increased use of
wireless broadband access technologies.

The use of xDSL fixed broadband services is not yet in decline. However, growth has slowed
considerably to about 1.5% a year and it is mobile broadband that now accounts for the
majority of net additions. Fibre, which is now the third-largest form of fixed broadband
access, is growing steadily, as is WIMAX. However, the latter is starting from a much
smaller user base and is likely to fall from favour as UMTS/LTE technologies become more
widely used. In the long term, although we expect slow growth in fixed broadband, we do
not expect growth to turn negative because we believe it will be supported by the
proliferation of converged services that bundle broadband with pay-TV and fixed voice
services. We forecast the overall broadband market will serve almost 4mn subscribers by
2015, with mobile connections likely to be accounting for more than half of those
subscribers.
Table Of Contents

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Denmark Mobile SWOT Analysis 6
Denmark Wireline SWOT Analysis . 7
Denmark Political SWOT . 8
Denmark Economic SWOT ... 8
Business Environment Analysis 9
Western Europe Business Environment Ratings, Q411: Little Change As Economic Woes
Weigh Heavily ... 9
Western Europe Risk Reward Ratings, Q411 .. 9
Denmark 12
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 14
Mobile 14
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 14
Mobile ARPU .. 16
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Monthly Blended Mobile ARPU (DKK) – Historical Data &
Forecasts ... 16
Fixed Line .. 18
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts .. 18
Internet .. 20
Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts ... 20
Market Data Analysis .. 22
Mobile 22
Table: Denmark Mobile Market, Q211 ... 23
Table: Denmark Mobile Net Additions (‘000), H111 .. 25
Customer Divisions ... 26
ARPU 28
3G . 30
LTE (4G) . 33
Mobile Contract Wins . 34
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 34
Mobile Operator Tables . 36
Table: Market . 36
Table: TDC . 36
Table: Telenor Denmark . 37
Table: TeliaSonera ... 38
Table: 3 Denmark . 40
Mobile Content 41
Regional Outlook .. 41
Table: Smart Meter Race Is On 44
Country Outlook ... 45
Value-Added Services Timeline. 49
Table: Selected VAS Services 49
Fixed Line .. 50
Broadband . 54
Table: Fixed Broadband Accesses By Technology Type, 2008-2010 . 56
Table: Broadband Subscribers By Service Provider, 2009-2010 . 57
Cable TV . 58
FTTH 59
WiMAX . 60
Mobile Broadband 60
Wireline Contract Wins .. 61
Table: Wireline Contract Wins . 61
Table: TDC . 62
Table: TeliaSonera ... 63
Regulatory Environment. 64
Overview . 64
Denmark: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities . 64
Legislation .. 65
Recent Developments 66
Competitive Landscape .. 69
Market Overview . 69
Table: Key Players – Denmark Telecoms Sector 69
Table: Selected Operator Financial Parameters 69
Company Monitor .. 70
In Europe, Fibre's The Thing For Nexans 70
Operator Profiles ... 74
TDC .. 74
Telenor Denmark .. 80
Telia Denmark 87
Hi3G Denmark . 93
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ... 95
Fixed Line .. 95
Table: Regional Fixed-line Penetration Overview .. 95
Internet .. 96
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 97
Mobile 98
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview . 99
Glossary Of Terms 100
Table: Glossary Of Terms ..100
BMI Methodology 101
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .101
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts .101
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 103
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 103
Table: Ratings Indicators ..104
Weighting ...105
Table: Weighting Of Indicators ...105
Sources 105

About Us:

Market Research Reports is an online library of over 50,000 reports and in-depth
marketresearch studies & analysis of over 5000 micro markets. We provide 24/7 online and
offlinesupport to our customers. Get in touch with us for your needs of market research
reports.
Contact:

Mr.Priyank
7557 Rambler road,
Suite727,Dallas,TX75231
Tel: + 1 888 391 5441

E-mail: sales@marketreportsonline.com
http://www.marketreportsonline.com

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Denmark telecommunications report q4 2011

  • 1. Denmark Telecommunications Report Q4 2011 Published:November 2011 No.Of Pages:105 Price:US $ 530 While there is no new regulatory data available this quarter, BMI has updated our forecasts for the mobile, mobile ARPU and fixed-line markets based on fresh data sourced from Denmark's fixed-line, mobile and broadband operators, supplementing earlier data from the National IT and Telecom Agency (NITA). In addition to updated Denmark Telecommunications Market forecasts and data analysis, we have included operator tables for converged service provision for the first time, detailing the recent performance of the incumbent, TDC’s and TeliaSonera’s wireline performance. Following four quarters of successive subscriber losses from Q210 to Q111, losing a total of a quarter of a million subscribers, the mobile market returned to growth in Q211. There were 173,00 net additions, taking the total to 6.836mn. However, with penetration remaining above 120% we do not believe this quarter of net additions signals a return to growth in the market. Instead we expect the market to continue to experience subscriber losses over the medium term, punctuated by quarters of net additions. It is not possible to forecast when inactive subscriber discounting will occur, and we therefore forecast slow steady declines in subscriptions However, in reality we expect quarterly growth to demonstrate considerably more volatility. Browse All IT & Telecommunication Market Research Reports Meanwhile, the market for traditional fixed-line services based on PSTN and ISDN technology has been shrinking, due to the growing use of substitute services such as mobile broadband. During the next five years, we forecast that Denmark’s fixed-line market will shrink at annual average growth of 5.8%.Within fixed-line we expect VoIP to account for an increasing share of total subscriptions as customers are attracted to the service through bundled service packages including pay-TV and broadband services. By the end of 2015 we expect penetration to fall to 33.2% (new population forecasts resulted in higher penetration rates despite reining in of our fixed-line usage forecasts even further). Denmark's fixed broadband market appears to heading for a downtrend with TDC and Telenor reporting subscriber net losses despite efforts to offer a wider range of attractively-priced bundles. BMI believes the decline in fixed broadband subscriptions is the result of increased use of wireless broadband access technologies. The use of xDSL fixed broadband services is not yet in decline. However, growth has slowed considerably to about 1.5% a year and it is mobile broadband that now accounts for the majority of net additions. Fibre, which is now the third-largest form of fixed broadband access, is growing steadily, as is WIMAX. However, the latter is starting from a much smaller user base and is likely to fall from favour as UMTS/LTE technologies become more widely used. In the long term, although we expect slow growth in fixed broadband, we do not expect growth to turn negative because we believe it will be supported by the proliferation of converged services that bundle broadband with pay-TV and fixed voice services. We forecast the overall broadband market will serve almost 4mn subscribers by 2015, with mobile connections likely to be accounting for more than half of those subscribers.
  • 2. Table Of Contents Executive Summary 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Denmark Mobile SWOT Analysis 6 Denmark Wireline SWOT Analysis . 7 Denmark Political SWOT . 8 Denmark Economic SWOT ... 8 Business Environment Analysis 9 Western Europe Business Environment Ratings, Q411: Little Change As Economic Woes Weigh Heavily ... 9 Western Europe Risk Reward Ratings, Q411 .. 9 Denmark 12 Industry Forecast Scenario ... 14 Mobile 14 Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 14 Mobile ARPU .. 16 Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Monthly Blended Mobile ARPU (DKK) – Historical Data & Forecasts ... 16 Fixed Line .. 18 Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts .. 18 Internet .. 20 Table: Denmark Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts ... 20 Market Data Analysis .. 22 Mobile 22 Table: Denmark Mobile Market, Q211 ... 23 Table: Denmark Mobile Net Additions (‘000), H111 .. 25 Customer Divisions ... 26 ARPU 28 3G . 30 LTE (4G) . 33 Mobile Contract Wins . 34 Table: Mobile Contract Wins 34 Mobile Operator Tables . 36 Table: Market . 36 Table: TDC . 36 Table: Telenor Denmark . 37 Table: TeliaSonera ... 38 Table: 3 Denmark . 40 Mobile Content 41 Regional Outlook .. 41 Table: Smart Meter Race Is On 44 Country Outlook ... 45 Value-Added Services Timeline. 49 Table: Selected VAS Services 49 Fixed Line .. 50 Broadband . 54 Table: Fixed Broadband Accesses By Technology Type, 2008-2010 . 56 Table: Broadband Subscribers By Service Provider, 2009-2010 . 57 Cable TV . 58 FTTH 59 WiMAX . 60
  • 3. Mobile Broadband 60 Wireline Contract Wins .. 61 Table: Wireline Contract Wins . 61 Table: TDC . 62 Table: TeliaSonera ... 63 Regulatory Environment. 64 Overview . 64 Denmark: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities . 64 Legislation .. 65 Recent Developments 66 Competitive Landscape .. 69 Market Overview . 69 Table: Key Players – Denmark Telecoms Sector 69 Table: Selected Operator Financial Parameters 69 Company Monitor .. 70 In Europe, Fibre's The Thing For Nexans 70 Operator Profiles ... 74 TDC .. 74 Telenor Denmark .. 80 Telia Denmark 87 Hi3G Denmark . 93 Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ... 95 Fixed Line .. 95 Table: Regional Fixed-line Penetration Overview .. 95 Internet .. 96 Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 97 Mobile 98 Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview . 99 Glossary Of Terms 100 Table: Glossary Of Terms ..100 BMI Methodology 101 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .101 Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts .101 Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 103 Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 103 Table: Ratings Indicators ..104 Weighting ...105 Table: Weighting Of Indicators ...105 Sources 105 About Us: Market Research Reports is an online library of over 50,000 reports and in-depth marketresearch studies & analysis of over 5000 micro markets. We provide 24/7 online and offlinesupport to our customers. Get in touch with us for your needs of market research reports.
  • 4. Contact: Mr.Priyank 7557 Rambler road, Suite727,Dallas,TX75231 Tel: + 1 888 391 5441 E-mail: sales@marketreportsonline.com http://www.marketreportsonline.com