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Future Technologies and
Their Applications
A one-day workshop
at ILI 2013 facilitated
by Brian Kelly and
Tony Hirst
Twitter hashtag:
#ili2013fut
Available under a
Creative Commons
(CC-BY licence)
1
E1: Technology Trends:
Scenario Planning
Review
We have:
• Heard about the approach developed by the JISC
Observatory for detecting signals of new
technological developments.
• Heard about the importance of open processes
for discussing the implications of the evidence.
• Used a Delphi process for identifying
technological developments which you feel to be
important.
• Presented cases giving reasons why these areas
should be investigated further.
2
But What Of Our Organisation?
How will our organisations respond to:
• The technological developments we have
identified?
• Unforeseen technological developments?
• Political, social, economic and cultural
changes?
3
Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is:
• A strategic planning method that some organisations
use to make flexible long-term plans.
• An adaptation and generalization of classic methods
used by military intelligence.
Processes:
• Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change
• Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework
• Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios
• Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios
• Step 5 - write the scenarios
• Step 6 - identify issues arising
4
From http://en.wikipedia.org/
wiki/Scenario_planning
Scenarios
Possible
scenarios
5
Commercialisation Devolved ownership
Everyone’s a
librarian
The niche librarian
Scenario 1: Commercialisation
By 2016:
• Libraries had responded by financial
pressures by making significant use of
commercial services
• Companies are now looking to respond to
pressure from shareholders to increase profits
6
In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?
Scenario 2: Devolution
By 2016:
• Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due
to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, …
• There was a move towards small-scale services
which were owned/managed by trusted
organisations
7
In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?
Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian
By 2016:
• The majority are now connected using social
networks and are comfortable in using the services
• Skills which previously librarians possessed
(cataloging resources, resource discovery, …) are
now held by many.
• The role of the dedicated librarian is being questioned
8
In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?
Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian
By 2016:
• We had seen a decline in student numbers in library
schools and the demise of their professional
organisation following significant government cuts
• The professional body asked its few remaining
members for their thoughts on the future of the
profession
9
In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?
Scenario 5: Your Own Scanario
You may choose to :
• Define a scenario which will mean a changed
environment for your organisation by 2016
• Provide a brief summary of the scenario and
then address the issues below
10
In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?
Scenarios
Possible
scenarios
11
Commercialisation Devolved ownership
Everyone’s a
librarian
The niche librarian
Your own scenarioa
Group Exercise
You should now:
• Address one of these scenarios.
• Give a report on your discussions.
12
Questions
Any questions?
13

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E1: Scenario Planning: Future Technologies and Their Applications

  • 1. Future Technologies and Their Applications A one-day workshop at ILI 2013 facilitated by Brian Kelly and Tony Hirst Twitter hashtag: #ili2013fut Available under a Creative Commons (CC-BY licence) 1 E1: Technology Trends: Scenario Planning
  • 2. Review We have: • Heard about the approach developed by the JISC Observatory for detecting signals of new technological developments. • Heard about the importance of open processes for discussing the implications of the evidence. • Used a Delphi process for identifying technological developments which you feel to be important. • Presented cases giving reasons why these areas should be investigated further. 2
  • 3. But What Of Our Organisation? How will our organisations respond to: • The technological developments we have identified? • Unforeseen technological developments? • Political, social, economic and cultural changes? 3
  • 4. Scenario Planning Scenario planning is: • A strategic planning method that some organisations use to make flexible long-term plans. • An adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. Processes: • Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change • Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework • Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios • Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios • Step 5 - write the scenarios • Step 6 - identify issues arising 4 From http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Scenario_planning
  • 6. Scenario 1: Commercialisation By 2016: • Libraries had responded by financial pressures by making significant use of commercial services • Companies are now looking to respond to pressure from shareholders to increase profits 6 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  • 7. Scenario 2: Devolution By 2016: • Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, … • There was a move towards small-scale services which were owned/managed by trusted organisations 7 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  • 8. Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian By 2016: • The majority are now connected using social networks and are comfortable in using the services • Skills which previously librarians possessed (cataloging resources, resource discovery, …) are now held by many. • The role of the dedicated librarian is being questioned 8 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  • 9. Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian By 2016: • We had seen a decline in student numbers in library schools and the demise of their professional organisation following significant government cuts • The professional body asked its few remaining members for their thoughts on the future of the profession 9 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  • 10. Scenario 5: Your Own Scanario You may choose to : • Define a scenario which will mean a changed environment for your organisation by 2016 • Provide a brief summary of the scenario and then address the issues below 10 In your group: • How would your organisation respond to this scenario? • What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario is likely to happen? • What are the pros and cons of this scenario? Is this scenario one you: • Feel is likely? • Would welcome?
  • 11. Scenarios Possible scenarios 11 Commercialisation Devolved ownership Everyone’s a librarian The niche librarian Your own scenarioa
  • 12. Group Exercise You should now: • Address one of these scenarios. • Give a report on your discussions. 12