Slides on "Let's Predict the Future: Scenario Planning" for a workshop session on "Predicting the Future" held on 3 June 2014 at the SAOIM 2014 conference in Pretoria, South Africa and facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis. See https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/

1. E: Scenario planning
Let’s Predict the Future!
A half-day workshop
at the SAOIM 2014
conference held on
Tuesday 3 June
2014 facilitated by
Brian Kelly, Cetis
Slides available
under a Creative
Commons licence
(CC-BY)
1
E1: Let’s Predict the Future:
Scenario Planning

2. Review
We have:
• Heard about the approaches for detecting signals
of new technological developments.
• Heard about the importance of open processes
for discussing the implications of the evidence.
• Used a Delphi process for identifying
technological developments which you feel to be
important.
• Presented cases giving reasons why these areas
should be investigated further.
2

3. But What Of Our Organisation?
How will our organisations respond to:
• The technological developments we have
identified?
• Unforeseen technological developments?
• Political, social, economic and cultural
changes?
3

4. Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is:
• A strategic planning method that some organisations
use to make flexible long-term plans.
• An adaptation and generalization of classic methods
used by military intelligence.
Processes:
• Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change
• Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework
• Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios
• Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios
• Step 5 - write the scenarios
• Step 6 - identify issues arising
4
From http://en.wikipedia.org/
wiki/Scenario_planning

5. Future of Libraries
Possible
scenarios
5
Commercialisation Devolved ownership
Everyone’s a
librarian
The niche librarian

6. Scenario 1: Commercialisation
By 2018:
• Libraries had responded by financial
pressures by making significant use of
commercial services
• Companies are now looking to respond to
pressure from shareholders to increase profits
6
In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this scenario
is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?

7. Scenario 2: Devolution
By 2018:
• Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due
to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, …
• There was a move towards small-scale services
which were owned/managed by trusted
organisations
7
In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?

8. Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian
By 2018:
• The majority are now connected using social
networks and are comfortable in using the services
• Skills which previously librarians possessed
(cataloging resources, resource discovery, …) are
now held by many.
• The role of the dedicated librarian is being questioned
8
In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?

9. Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian
By 2018:
• We had seen a decline in student numbers in library
schools and the demise of their professional
organisation following significant government cuts
• The professional body asked its few remaining
members for their thoughts on the future of the
profession
9
In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?

10. Scenario 5: Your Own Scenario
You may choose to :
• Define a scenario which will mean a changed
environment for your organisation by 2018
• Provide a brief summary of the scenario and
then address the issues below
10
In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?

11. Scenarios
Possible
scenarios
11
Commercialisation Devolved ownership
Everyone’s a
librarian
The niche librarian
Your own scenario

12. Group Exercise
You should now:
• Address one of these scenarios.
• Give a report on your discussions.
12

13. Questions
Any questions?
13